Larry Holmes turned 76 years old today. He is, without question, one of the top ten, and probably one of the top five heavyweight boxers of all-time, when he was in his prime. He is often overlooked by new fans, in part because he wasn’t a trash talker, but also because his style of boxing was purely fundamental and not the kind of excitement that an Ali or Tyson gave us. One isn’t better than the other, but Larry’s jab worked well for him. So well that he held some variation of the heavyweight championship for 7 years. Among his victories, he defeated Ken Norton, Muhammad Ali, Ernie Shavers, Mike Weaver, Gerry Cooney, Tim Witherspoon, Carl Williams, and Marvis Frazier. He was at 48-0 before the mafia outright robbed him he fell short of tying Rocky Marciano’s 49-0 record in his match with Leon Spinks in 1985. Everyone in Easton will tell you “they know” Larry, that’s everybody but me. I actually have met him plenty of times, but that’s different from knowing someone. I do know Larry Jr., and he’s an absolutely great dude (go check out his new cigar bar, Legends, which is opening in downtown Easton). So I know Mr. and Mrs. Holmes did a great job at that.
Is Larry the greatest athlete to ever come out of the Lehigh Valley? He might be. Mario Andretti is the only man to ever win the Indy 500, Daytona 500, and Formula One Championship though, so there’s an argument that he is also a top ten, or even top five athlete of all-time in his sport. Larry has competition to just be the greatest athlete ever to come out of Easton though- Bobby Weaver won the Olympic Gold Medal in Los Angeles in 1984 in freestyle wrestling. It would be really hard to argue against any of them as the best ever. There are competitors though.
Joe Kovacs of Bethlehem Catholic is a three time Olympic Silver Medalist in the Shot Put, and has won two World Championships. Stan Dziedzic of Allen won an Olympic Bronze Medal in Wrestling at the 1976 Olympics, to go with his three NCAA Division II and one Division I championship. Andre Reed of Dieruff is in the Pro Football Hall-of-Fame and started in FOUR Super Bowls. Saquon Barkley obviously won last year’s Super Bowl with the Eagles and was named Offensive Player of the Year. His fellow Whitehall Zephyrs Matt Millen and Dan Koppen won four and two Super Bowls in their NFL careers. Jim Ringo of Phillipsburg won Super Bowl I and another championship on his way to making both the Packers and Eagles Hall-of-Fame. Ned Bolcar of Phillipsburg won an NCAA Championship for Notre Dame’s 1988 team and played in the NFL. Chuck “Concrete” Charlie of Liberty High School was a two way menace for the Eagles and won two championships. Kristen Maloney was an Olympic Bronze Medal winning gymnast out of Pen Argyl. Sandy Koufax is one of the greatest pitchers of all time and resides in the Center Valley area. Darian Cruz wrestled in the 2024 Olympics and finished 5th. Marty Nothstein, long before politics, won an Olympic Silver (’96 Atlanta) and Gold (2000 Sydney) in track cycling. Meredith Sholder of Emmaus played on the 2024 U.S. Olympic Field Hockey team. Curt Simmons from Whitehall pitched on the 1950 NL Champion Phillies and made three All-Star Games. Brian Schneider of Northampton had a long MLB career with the Expos, Nationals, Mets, and Phillies. Anthony Recker of Catasauqua was a catcher for the A’s, Cubs, and Mets. Matt McBride from Liberty appeared for the A’s and Rockies. Aaron Gray of Emmaus had a decent run in the NBA, mostly as a member of the Chicago Bulls. You can’t forget defending Super Bowl Champion Jahan Dotson of Nazareth. Cindy Werley of Emmaus was on the 1996 Olympic Field Hockey Team. Kevin and Kyzir White of Emmaus have had notable NFL careers, with Kyzir playing for the Eagles 2022 Super Bowl team. Tyrese Martin of Allen is on the Brooklyn Nets right now. Damn, this list got long.
One would be really hard pressed to make a Mount Rushmore of Lehigh Valley sports without Larry Holmes, Mario Andretti, Chuck Badnarik, and Bobby Weaver. You could certainly argue for Matt Millen, Andre Reed, Dan Koppen, Saquon Barkley, Marty Nothstein, and Jim Ringo, and I won’t say you’re wrong. Either way, the Easton Assassin has to be on any list, and I hope he had a great birthday.
Anybody who really knows me knows how much I don’t like the Los Angeles Dodgers. I don’t mind that they spend a lot of money. ALL of these teams should spend a lot of money, and I give them credit for doing so. They are a big market and they behave like it, and we should all be happy about that. Every owner in baseball is a billionaire though. At a minimum, they could spend their revenue, which is north of $250 million for every team. For my money, the Dodgers are doing what they should. I just don’t like them because I like Philadelphia. We seem to meet a lot over the last 50 years in the playoffs. I’m not supposed to like them.
The Dodgers are a well built team. They have excellent starting pitching, and depth amongst those starters. They have at least three strong Hall-of-Fame candidates in their lineup. Their bullpen sucked all year, but that’s what the starting depth was there to fix. Yamamoto is worth every penny the Dodgers gave him, he is the true #1 starter on that team. Like I said, they’re a good team.
Now, will they threepeat? Shohei Ohtani apparently went full Patrick Mahomes today and called it. Maybe he’ll be more lucky than Patrick. Obviously Snell, Glasnow, and Ohtani’s arms could all fall off at any point and they could be in trouble. Mookie showed signs of slowing offensively this year and Freeman was more “very good” than great. They have some older players who have been staples of that lineup who are not young anymore. They get the benefit of the doubt until someone challenges them next year. Milwaukee and Philadelphia appear to be in the ballgame, but you have to actually get it done once before you get the benefit of the doubt. Toronto got quite close, but Toronto has to start over next season like everyone else, and then show us they are more 2025 than 2024.
This ranking will serve as the last ranking for the 2025 season. There’s some minor movement in the playoff teams, but nothing big. The next time I do one of these rankings will probably be around the Winter Meetings, when free agency gets very hot and rosters are changing. Until then, there’s nothing to really change. So this will be it for now. We’ll probably basically do a monthly ranking in December and January.
If the 2025 Election were a race for a new seat on the Supreme Court, I’d probably be predicting the GOP to narrowly win. It’s not though, and that is going to loom large in how people interpret tomorrow’s results. The Republican Party and their rich backers need voters to vote all the way to the end of the ballot, then vote “no” on retention for the three Supreme Court seats and the singular seat up for the Superior and Commonwealth Courts. That’s a tall task, history says.
Over 810 thousand votes are in already (810,377). The truth is that my numbers are a few hours behind, and that number is probably higher now. Democrats hold a roughly 336,000 voter edge in those votes. I expect 2,403,455 voters to vote in person tomorrow. I expect Republicans to hold about a 290,000 vote edge in registration tomorrow. That means Democrats come out around 46,000 voters up in registration. The roughly 245,000 independent and third party voters will decide tomorrow’s statewide races. Again, if this were a regular election where both parties had candidates on the ballot, I’d be predicting a nail biter.
It’s not though. I can only recall one statewide judge losing retention, and he was neck deep in the 2006 pay raise scandal. Democrats as individual candidates for retention and as a collective movement are spending like crazy to get their voters to vote “yes.” That seems like the likely outcome to me. What I sort of wonder to myself is if Alice Beck Dubow and Michael Wojcik might suffer from less notoriety in their retentions for the Superior and Commonwealth Courts. So if the Supreme Court Judges get 55% Yes tomorrow, do these two end up in a nail biter. The other thing I’m interested in is whether there are signs of a Democratic wave here. Friends working elections in Washington state and Virginia tell me that suburban voters are breaking hard towards Democrats in their polling, with even a substantial number of moderate Republicans (10-15% above normal) in suburban areas breaking towards Democrats. If we see numbers like that in Bucks, Lehigh, Northampton, Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware, it could be a very good night for Democrats. Look, if these retentions end up being blowouts with over 60% voting yes, you have to at least consider that’s what normally happens. For the partisan attention these races got though, I’d be surprised by that.
There are two stand alone judicial races tomorrow at the state level, and they are a very different story. Washington County Judge Brandon Neuman is the Democratic candidate for the Superior Court, and he faces horror movie character 2023 Republican nominee Maria Battista (I managed one of her successful opponents in 2023, so I definitely have some feelings about her). Philadelphia County Judge Stella Tsai faces Republican Matt Wolford in the race for Commonwealth Court. If I had to guess, this will end up in a split decision, with Neuman winning close and Wolford winning close. This will basically come down to the independent and third party voters. One thing I have to wonder is how well the voters know any of these four, compared to the Supreme Court race.
Even a blowout in Pennsylvania is closer than most elections in most of America. If someone wins by 100k votes, we act like that’s some blowout when over 3 million people vote. This election will generally be decided by two things. First, the 245,000 or so independent and third party voters, which probably will pick a winner. Second, the 282,088 vote by mail ballots that have not been returned. Democrats have 100,000 more votes in this group, so more returning is good for them. As is, I am predicting a turnout of 3,213,674 or more. I’m predicting the “yes” votes for Supreme Court to be around 55%, with slightly less for the lower courts. I’m predicting the new seats go to Neuman and Wolford.
It will all be over tomorrow, folks. To a large extent, we sort of know what’s happening already. There are about 40,210 highly likely Election Day voters. The Republicans hold a substantial lead amongst them of 6,111 votes. There are 3,417 independent and third party voters who are likely to show up tomorrow. Two years ago, 47,015 people voted on Election Day. Tara Zrinski got 18,628 votes and lost them by a little bit over 7,500. I am predicting 48,392 Election Day voters tomorrow. Republicans will have a 6,729 vote advantage over Democrats. There will be just over 5,000 independent and third party voters. Tom Giovanni and the Republican ticket will win Election Day by a hair under 8,000. If you’re watching for anything, it’s whether we cross 49 or 50 thousand Election Day votes, and whether his margin is more than 8,000.
Two years ago, 25,421 people voted by mail. Democrats crushed the Republicans with these voters. Zrinski won this group by 13,331 and actually did a little worse than the statewide court numbers. Democratic numbers are a little down from that height though. 16,175 Democrats have returned their ballots, compared to 6,034 Republicans. That’s an edge of 10,141. There are 2,500 independent and third party votes in. Election Day independents probably break Republican and vote by mail independents tend to break Democratic. For argument’s sake, if that’s the case here, Democrats probably come out 10,600 votes up, and Zrinski wins by a little under 3,000 votes. Of course, that’s assuming more votes don’t come in. We’re at 24,709 in already, so it’s probably a bit crazy to think most of the remaining ballots come in. There are 9,150 of them still out there though, and Democrats hold an advantage of 3,020 amongst their registration. Republicans are definitely doing a bit better than 2023 amongst vote by mail voters, but they’d still be happy if less of these votes came in.
Tom Giovanni is probably not going to win tomorrow. The numbers are better for him than they were for John Cusick against Zrinski in 2023 though. Zrinski won the Controller race by 5,775 that year. She’s only going to get to that number if like 3 or 4 thousand more vote by mail ballots come in, or she crushes him with independents. As of right now, I expect turnout to be slightly higher than 2023, something in the neighborhood of 74,000, and I expect Zrinski to win by about 2,600 votes, which is just shy of 4%. So she gets about 51% and he gets about 47%. Is there a path for Giovanni though? Yes. First, I think he has to hope that less than 1,500 more vote by mail ballots come in. Second, he needs to crush it with Election Day independent voters and win the independent voters who voted by mail. Then he’ll need at least some portion of Democrats to come over and vote for him, beyond the usual. That’s a lot, and he and his party did not run a campaign that was advantageous for that. As usual, they followed the conventional wisdom that most of their voters will vote on Election Day. That’s great and all, but it isn’t worth a cup of coffee at Wawa if that’s not enough voters to win. They also messaged entirely at their base with a Charlie Kirk mailer, and weirdly put out signs asking “Where’s the money Lamont?,” as if a.) anyone knows what that means, b.) they actually wanted to drag the guy that crushed them the last two Executive races into the race, and c.) he was their opponent. The strategy was bizarre and made no sense. I think it will probably cost them a relatively close Executive race, a very close judge race, and any shot at the majority on County Council (they need to win 4 seats tomorrow). I think Democrats Dave Holland and Lori Vargo Heffner and Republican Sam Elias will win seats tomorrow night. I would predict the Democrats to win four for sure, but Democrats drop off much faster as we go down the ballot. I think Theresa Fadem and Jason Boulette will be in a very close race with Republicans John Goffredo and John Brown. My guess is Fadem and Goffredo hang on. For Zrinski to be able to govern, she will need two Democrats besides Vargo Heffner to win, so she needs Holland, Fadem, and Boulette to have good nights. If it’s a good night for Republicans and Giovanni over performs, they absolutely could get Elias, Goffredo, and Brown through. I just don’t think I see them getting four seats unless Giovanni wins.
Imagine being so excited to gut Medicaid and run the debt up so high that there will be automatic cuts to Medicare. Then again, Speaker Johnson is a true alpha dog. This man has an app he shares with his son to track when they are watching pornography. Seriously. Yet, this man has spent so much of this year blocking the release of any existing Epstein Files, proving he’ll even protect a pedophile to protect Donald Trump.
This is a fitting alpha dog for the day after Halloween.
As you may have read, tomorrow SNAP benefits, better known as food stamps, will not go out to a little over 40 million Americans. There are as best we can tell, 342,688,984 people in the United States. In the last fiscal year (2024) there were 41.7 million people on food stamps. About 12.3% of the United States receives food stamps. About 10% of food stamps recipients are disabled people. 39% are children. 20% of senior citizens. Only a little over 30% are adults who are not seniors and not disabled, or between 12 and 13 million people. About 83% of them have an income, and are just still poor. There are maybe 2-3 million people on food stamps who are able bodied and not working, by my math. All of this is one google search away. You can ask AI too.
If you listen to conservative leaders though, they are alarmed at how many people are receiving benefits. Most Congressional Districts have over 100k people receiving benefits within them. The majority are children, the elderly, the disabled, and the working poor. As of tomorrow, none of them will receive their benefits. The message from Washington is clear- go to hell. We know that people in failing life situations cost society more, be it in welfare programs, prison costs, health care costs, and other programs designed to prevent catastrophic outcomes. What happens when you starve the people hanging on by a thread? Well, you’re in luck, we’re about to find out.
I would much prefer universal basic income to traditional welfare, if there was a fully ironed out plan to do so, but there’s not. These people are going to start dying and doing other bad things without this money. Congressman Mackenzie, Senator McCormick, and Senator Fetterman are prolonging the government shutdown by insisting on taking health care from millions of Americans. President Trump is making the shutdown worse by refusing to use funds available to him to fund this program. Real people are suffering as a result.
morrow could be the last baseball game of the 2025 season. God willing, the Toronto Blue Jays will be World Champions (I’m not convinced, because Yamamoto). And then the off-season will be here. Either way, you’ll wake up Monday as a Phillies fan thinking about what Kyle Schwarber is going to cost.
I already laid out the basics of the Phillies situation, but let’s start over briefly. The Phillies have a significant amount of guaranteed contracts on their hands. From the first post:
The Phillies have guaranteed contracts with Trea Turner ($27,272,727 toward the luxury tax), Bryce Harper ($25,384,615), Nick Castellanos ($20,000,000), Zack Wheeler ($42,000,000), Cristopher Sanchez ($5,625,000), Aaron Nola ($24,571,429), Taijuan Walker ($18,000,000), and Matt Strahm ($7,500,000 option that vested). The owe a minimum buyout of $500,000 on Alvarado if they buy out his option ($9,000,000 if they accept it) and $3,000,000 on Bader if they decline ($10,000,000 if they accept it. That leaves them with a guaranteed payroll of $173,853,771.
Not much has changed since then, but some things have. Harrison Bader is going to opt out of his end of the mutual option, saving the Phillies $3 million. I see no way that Castellanos is back here, regardless of whether he’s traded or released. Someone else will sign him to DH or be a 4th outfielder, assuming we can’t trade him away for better savings, so the Phillies are already saving $3,820,000. This puts their guarantees at $170,033,771. I expect Alvarado to be back, whether it’s on this deal or a new one, so let’s add the $8.5 million and take the guaranteed payroll to $178,583,771 to start the off-season. The Phillies will try to trade away more of Castellanos money, and probably a chunk of Walker’s (think somewhere between $6-12 million). You can’t change these numbers much, so moving Walker and Castellanos are the only way. Castellanos could be a fit for a team that could primarily DH him, for instance like the Cardinals, but I’m not sure bringing Arrenado back for him should be their *first* choice, though I wouldn’t rule it out if other things are also happening (like a Bohm trade and the signing of a bigger bat elsewhere). Castellanos is also mentioned as a fit with the Guardians, Royals, Rangers, and Padres. The Phillies chief goal should be to move his money, not be super worried about the return. Walker is a different story. Walker had a reasonably good season. Not $18 million good, but he was competitive. If you’re eating $8-12 million off of his salary, he’s actually a reasonably nice pick up for a team seeking a fifth starter, or a bad team that needs some veteran arms to eat innings. He’s just not worth what we’re paying him.
Then there’s arbitration eligible players. I went through this too:
The Phillies have a number of players who are also arbitration eligible. MLB Trade Rumors did a piece recently projecting what those players should get, you should give them a read. They project that should the Phillies agree to offer arbitration to these players (they can decline to and let the player go to free agency), Alec Bohm ($10,300,000), Brandon Marsh ($4,500,000), Bryson Stott ($5,800,000), Edmundo Sosa ($3,900,000), Rafael Marchan ($1,000,000), Garrett Stubbs ($925,000), Jesus Luzardo ($10,400,000), Jhoan Duran ($7,600,000), and Tanner Banks ($1,200,000) would cost the Phillies roughly (these are estimates) $45,625,000.
Ok, so this is where things get a bit expensive. “The Daycare” (Bohm, Marsh, and Stott) cost $20.6 million together, and basically are roadblocks to the Phillies getting Justin Crawford and Aidan Miller into the line-up, regardless of where exactly you want to put them. Moving Bohm or Stott is a must if you want Miller up at some point next year. Marsh could co-exist with Crawford, if the Phillies move on from Harrison Bader, but I’m kind of hoping they don’t (more on that later). There’s no Earthly world where both Marchan and Stubbs should be back, neither is really ready to start at Catcher and both are out of options, so you should be trying to move one or both, depending on your plans. For argument’s sake, let’s assume for a moment that Stubbs is non-tendered (that’s not a lock to me, but it’s what you would do on paper if you keep Realmuto, and everyone else is retained.). That leaves you at $44,700,000. You’re at $223,283,771 in then-guaranteed contracts. You have a full infield, one catcher, one outfielder, a utility man, five starting pitchers, and four relievers at that point. Let’s, for the moment, add on Orion Kerkering, Daniel Robert, Max Lazar, Andrew Painter (I’m sliding Walker back into his swing man role), Justin Crawford Otto Kemp, and Weston Wilson or Johan Rojas to the roster at league minimum $820,000 contracts to fill out my pitching staff and bench. That is $5,740,000, which takes us to $229,023,771 in payroll to start the off-season. I don’t have a DH and I don’t have a starting catcher yet. I need another starting outfielder too. The luxury tax is $244,000,000. The Phillies total payroll this year was in the $305 million mark, including non-tax expenses like minor league pay, player benefits, and differed moneys. The Phillies are carrying around roughly $30 million in those areas. The Phillies also say they will be in a “similar” payroll situation next year. Based on all of that, the Phillies have about $14,976,229 million dollars before they hit the luxury tax and about $45,976,229 until they hit this year’s costs. That’s not an awful lot to spend if you’re keeping most of your own guys. The Phillies three biggest free agents aren’t likely to be cheap. Realmuto would fill the starting catcher’s spot, and two numbers I’ve seen on him were two years at $17 million a piece and three years at $15 million a piece. Either way, that effectively eats up all of your remaining room under the luxury tax. Schwarber would fill your DH spot up, but he is rumored to be costing five years and $30 to $32 million a year. Do the math on that and you quickly see that the Phillies would meet or exceed this year’s payroll just bringing those two guys back. Want Ranger Suarez back? I do, and I actually think he’s both a better investment and possibly more crucial to sustaining the Phillies success than Shwarber and Realmuto. He’s going to cost you six years at $26,000,000 or so though.
So then let’s start with a reasonable early laundry list here of things the Phillies can do, should do, or will have to do.
Move Castellanos and Walker and save as much as possible. This is self explanatory, and really every dollar they can move beyond the minimum helps. I’d aim to save about $8 million on Walker (hopefully a bit more, but that’s ballpark). I’d try to get from the $820,000 you’ll save just cutting Castellanos up to at least $2.5 million. Would I take a sunk cost like Arrenado back in return? Sure, if A.) I had Bohm moved out of town, and B.) If I signed a major outfield/first base/DH/second base bat already. This would be an additional $9,680,000 in savings.
Shop Bohm and Stott. Let’s just be honest, these two are $16.1 million of payroll roughly, neither has become a superstar yet, Aidan Miller is going to need at least one of their spots, and the Phillies have shown no interest in extending either one yet. Frankly I’m shipping them both out if there is any pathway to do so. Combined with #1, you’re at $25,780,000 in savings.
Move or non-tender one of their back-up catchers. Sure, you’re only saving $925,000 to $1 million, but it helps. I’ve already factored in non-tendering Stubbs though, so no new savings here.
Choose between Harrison Bader and Brandon Marsh. You need to open a spot up for Justin Crawford and you probably can’t afford both Bader and Marsh on this team next year. There is a world where you simply carry these three into the season as your starting outfield, but that really only works for me if you add a significant infield bat, and keep Schwarber. If you let Bader walk, it’s a wash. If you trade Marsh, you can save $4,500,000. If you let Marsh go and keep Bader, it’s basically plus $5,500,000, most likely. If you just keep both, it’s probably about $10,000,000 spent. Pick your poison.
Work something out with Jose Alvarado. Look, he’s far from perfect, but better late inning relief options are going to cost significantly more than $9 million. I’d offer him a two year $16 million or three year $21 million deal (so $7-8 million a year) and save what I can here. Alvarado, Strahm, and Kerkering, with Banks as a situational lefty, is not a bad unit to set up for Duran to start next season. Let’s just assume a $1 million savings for now. You’re at $26,780,000 in savings.
Make your offer to Realmuto, inquire about Rutschman and Herrera. The catching market behind Realmuto is a significant drop off. I’d go ahead and offer him three years and $45 million, and try to negotiate some of his differed payments from the last contract off of this year’s payroll, maybe save $2-3 million on that end. If he’s not excited about that, I’d inquire about Rutschman, who is a candidate for a change of scenery in Baltimore, and Herrera, who is a very good young catcher, but injury prone. Ryan Jeffers and Jonah Heim are also potential trade options from Minnesota and Texas, as well, and would be much cheaper than Realmuto. My main point here is that you’re unlikely to get a major upgrade, if you don’t outright downgrade at catcher, so I’d try to do something early here. Keeping Realmuto makes sense to me. Let’s say it costs you $15,000,000 a year. You now are about $11,780,000 to the positive.
This puts your payroll around $217,243,771. You have Realmuto and Marchan catching, Harper at first, Turner at short, Sosa and Kemp manning second and third, no DH, Crawford as your only settled outfielder, Weston Wilson and Johan Rojas on your bench, Sanchez, Wheeler, Luzardo, Nola, and Wheeler in your rotation, and Duran, Alvarado, Kerkering, Strahm, and Banks in your bullpen. I’m still keeping Robert and Lazar in the bullpen as placeholders, and now I’ll add Alan Rangel as a placeholder. That puts me at $218,063,771. I still need two starting outfielders. I don’t have my DH. Since we already are counting Marsh’s payroll, let’s count him as an outfielder. Now I need one outfielder and a DH. I could re-sign Bader at around $10 million a year. I could move Harper into the outfield, but then I need a DH and first baseman. I could make Harper my DH, but then I need a first baseman and outfielder. So no matter what I do with Bader, I’m almost certainly going to spend $10 million or more for him or any upgrade, and I still will need one more player. So let’s add $10 million on and move that payroll to $228,063,771. The Phillies would be just a hair below $16 million under the luxury tax and roughly $77 million below this year’s payroll at that point.
So now, who is on the menu with this money? Let’s set the Schwarber, Ranger Suarez, and Harrison Bader questions aside for a moment. You don’t want to go into the season with Sosa and Kemp starting on your infield. You would live with them platooning in one spot until Aidan Miller is ready. Miller could be your future at second or third base, so really you could look for a player at either. At second base, you’re probably looking at Gleyber Torres ($13 million a year?), Luis Arraez ($15 million a year?), or Jorge Polanco ($13 million a year?). At third base you have some larger upgrade options, particularly in Alex Bregman ($30 million a year?) and Eugenio Suarez ($24 million a year?). If you want to be a bit more creative, Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto are both options from Japan to come over, and both are under 30. If you really wanted to be creative, you could try to sign Trevor Story ($25-26 million a year, if he opts out?) or Bo Bichette ($25-26 million a year?) to move to second or third. If you were willing to move Harper to DH or back to the outfield, or you just didn’t re-sign Schwarber, now you can take a look at Pete Alonso ($30 million a year range) and Cody Bellinger ($28 million a year?). In fact, you could look at Bellinger as an outfielder too. Trent Grisham ($15 million a year?) is coming off of a career year, which worries me, but he would be a more affordable option. Kyle Tucker ($42 million plus a year?) is an option in the outfield as well. You could also entertain a trade for Jarren Duran ($8 million?) from Boston, who is considerably cheaper, perhaps in exchange for Bohm and/or Stott if they indeed have infield needs? As for pitching, I doubt they’re swimming in the Framber Valdez because then why not sign back Suarez? I could see them looking at a Dustin May/Jordan Montgomery type as a swing man, to start the season with the team while Wheeler heals (for like $2-4 million), but then why not just keep Walker Buehler at that point? Assuming they sign a reliever at all, and don’t just go with guys with options for a while (and just wait until David Robertson wants to pitch again), I would think they’d be looking at the Kyle Finnegan’s and Raisel Iglesias types of the world, a touch under $10 million.
Ok, so let’s get real for a second. It’s very obvious the front office and the owner want Kyle Schwarber back as their DH. That’s going to take the Phillies across the luxury tax at $30 million a year. That’s going to leave you around $47 million, but it’s also baking in about $10 million in free money that you would pay Bader. Of course, unless you’re going to pay Kyle Tucker (highly doubt it) or Cody Bellinger (slightly more realistic), if you’ve already re-signed Schwarber, you really should pay Bader, rather than paying more for Trent Grisham. If I could get Duran, he would be a similarly price option that would be very good too. So let’s just assume Bader is probably back here. With him and Schwarber back, I don’t need to keep both Rojas and Wilson on the roster as placeholders, so now I’ve saved myself another $820k. I have just shy of $48 million to spend, and basically need an infielder. It could be a shortstop, then I move Turner to second base, but there’s no defensive upgrade at shortstop with a tolerable bat. It won’t be a first baseman at that point, unless I want to move Harper back to the outfield and make Marsh a fourth outfielder (and shed another $820k placeholder on the roster). It’s most likely a third baseman or a second baseman though. I would focus my energies, in order, on Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Eugenio Suarez, and Luis Arraez. If I sign Bregman, I’m probably out of any other major moves, and I’m moving on to the Dustin May/Jordan Montgomery/Walker Buehler swing man market and looking at a Finnegan or Iglesias relief pick up. I might still shop for Duran anyway, as he’s affordable and good, but you’re probably close to done. Bichette gives you slightly more wiggle room, but not a ton, so you’re off-season is similar from there, but you might be able to shop for a little better relief help, if you want. If we were to go the Suarez or Arraez route, things get pretty interesting. Suarez doesn’t give you a lot more free money, but his deal would be shorter and you could probably talk ownership into a little extra leash. You could suddenly see your way into a situation where you keep Ranger Suarez, thereby basically making Painter this year’s swing man, which is fine by me. I don’t see harm in that, especially knowing that there are questions around Wheeler and Nola’s health, and Luzardo is a free agent next Winter. If you sign Arraez to play second, I almost think you *need* to take those savings and keep Ranger in Philly.
If I really had my wish list, I would actually prefer Bregman to any offensive free agent- he’s a good defensive player, he bats right-handed, and I feel decent about how he’ll age. If not him, Bo Bichette would be really nice. I would like to see Schwarber back, like all Phillies fans, but I’d be perfectly fine nabbing Alonso or Eugenio Suarez for a little less if it gets to that point. I’d prefer Ivan Herrera to J.T. Realmuto, and maybe Adley Rutschman even to Realmuto for the right deal, but I think re-signing Realmuto probably makes the most sense. I want Crawford and Miller both in the lineup by next September. I want Painter on the team next season, even if I have more than five starting pitchers. I want Alvarado back, and maybe one more solid relief arm. I think you have to keep at least one of Bader and Marsh, if not both, but I’d really like the Phillies to get Duran from Boston. If I can’t land a major (Bregman/Bichette/Eugenio Suarez) infield bat, Luis Arraez would interest me. I want Ranger Suarez back, and think it’s the best in-house investment the team can make. I’m ready to move on from Bohm and Stott if I’m ready for Miller this year. I obviously want to trade Castellanos and Walker. After all that, go work on extensions with Luzardo and Jhoan Duran. And for the love of God, stop this idiotic talk about trading Harper, no one really wanted to do that, right?
We all know I’m not going to get what I want though.
In less than a week, Election 2025 will be over. In Pennsylvania, that means no more commercials with judges in them, very soon. The overwhelming bulk of the attention is on the Supreme Court retention race, and rightfully so. Justices Dougherty, Donohue, and Wecht have been fair, extremely fair, and have protected Pennsylvania from some of the ridiculous shit that has gone on across the country. Even when they threw out the partisanly gerrymandered Congressional map in 2018, they didn’t draw a left-wing utopia map to give Democrats a huge edge. They drew a 9-9 map and stated that Pennsylvanian’s have a right to fair districts. They gave every region that could support a Congressional district a district. They have kept our state from becoming a partisan Petri dish. These judges are protecting the law and deserve a second ten year term.
Make sure you go to the end of the ballot, whether you vote on Election Day or by mail, and check yes for Justices Kevin Dougherty, Christine Dougherty, and David Wecht.
Don’t stop there though. Superior Court Justice Alice Beck Dubow and Commonwealth Court Judge Michael Wojcik are also up for retention. Beck Dubow serves on a narrowly divided court partisanly, and yet has spent the last decade being a fair and impartial judge on one of the busiest courts in the country. The Superior Court is the last court that has to consider your appeal, and they need her for another ten years. Judge Wojcik is on a rather conservative court, but finds common ground with his colleagues every day to uphold the law on matters of policy and government. Go to the end of the ballot, after the Supreme Court Judges, and vote YES for these two as well.
No, you’re not done voting to retain Judges. In Northampton County, Judges Paula Roscioli and Sam Murray have to run for retention. These two judges sit on the bench every day in Easton and hear literally every kind of case- from armed robbery to a custody battle, a civil lawsuit to a PFA. If you’re saying to yourself that you don’t hear much about them, like you forgot them over the last ten years, THAT IS A GOOD THING. Common Pleas Judges don’t belong on the news, because that usually means they did something wrong. These people are literally not allowed to be political at all. They are supposed to just do their job. They have, for ten years. That’s why you don’t hear much about them. That’s why you need to go to the very end of the ballot and vote YES to retain them for another ten years.
Judges are critically important in our society, but they are not the only things that matter in this election. Here in Northampton County, you have three separate races you need to vote for. One is a County Executive, which will change for the first time in eight years this coming January. The County Executive runs the county on a day to day basis. Some things the Executive oversees are the Gracedale county senior citizens home, the department of children and youth, preserving open farmland space, a courts system, the public defenders office, replacing and repairing some bridges, and a whole host of other very basic, day to day functions of our society. You don’t want to put Tom Giovanni or his puppet masters in charge of this government. You do want to put County Controller Tara Zrinski in charge. With the County feeling the crunch of less or no money coming from the Federal and State Governments, you need someone like Zrinski, with a deep knowledge of the county’s finances and the right values to protect our elderly, our sick, children in broken families, and our environment amidst fiscal uncertainty. The next Executive will face some very difficult decisions leading the county forward, and will very likely have to raise taxes to execute functions that have been mandated on them by Washington and Harrisburg. You need someone who will protect the taxpayers and those most in need, as much as you can possibly do so.
The race for the vacant seat on the Court of Common Pleas between Jeremy Clark and James Fuller offers less stark of a contrast. For one thing, Judges can’t say how they will rule on a case, so when running for a new seat, you have to guess. Jeremy Clark is a really solid guy, he’s experienced, smart, and has served his country before as a member of the armed forces. Fuller and I went to school together, and he was always a quiet guy, which is a great character trait in a judge, and his legal work absolutely qualifies him to be a judge. Knowing both, I won’t say anything negative about them. I’m going to vote for Clark, because he shares the values that I do, but there’s no monster in this race.
There are ten seats candidates (five seats), all at-large, up for grabs on the Northampton County Council, and honestly this race depresses me. I am definitely not voting for all five Democrats on the ballot. In fact, I’ll be honest, removing partisanship, the Republicans ran a better, more accomplished ticket. Right now, I’m only going to endorse you voting for Jason Boulette and I guess, Dave Holland, who I didn’t vote for in the primary, but seems perfectly fine, I guess. I voted for Lori Vargo Heffner in each of her past elections, and might even again, but some of her decisions this term were deeply disappointing, particularly when she voted with the Republican minority to give a warehouse in the Slate Belt a tax break, when she voted against her fellow General Purposes Authority board member Paul Anthony to be on the Council, and her vote against a county health center. She decided in this term to be a “check” on the County Executive, which would be fine if he were doing things the public opposed or that contradicted his past statements, but that was not the case. He ran on protecting Gracedale, preserving open farmland, and not raising taxes, which is what he did. There was no need for a “check” on what 56% of the county voted for. Lori is a wonderful human being and she is absolutely smart and qualified to serve on the council. I’m not going to tell you to vote for her or not though, because she did some things I frankly don’t support. She is absolutely one of the five best people on the ballot, but I’m troubled here.
I will not be voting for Theresa Fadem or Nadeem Quyuum. I don’t know Fadem at all, and all I have seen of her campaign consisted of her talking about things the county council has no say over, like affordable housing. The last thing the council needs is another activist who doesn’t really know what county government does, but wants to be heard. Nadeem ran his race for Controller two years ago talking about affordable housing too, and he and his wife waged an ugly campaign against State Rep. Bob Freeman, focusing on “genocide” in Gaza, something Freeman neither supports or has anything to do with. Sorry, I can’t sign for that. Fortunately, these two are barely actively campaigning, and hopefully they will not win. There are some decent people running on the Republican side, but none of them would benefit from my endorsing them, as their voters probably mostly perceive that they disagree with my political positions (I doubt they do as much as they think). At least three of their candidates have family members that are good friends of mine. I just don’t think it would be helpful for me to say anything nice about them, even as people, in this political environment. Unfortunately there are people in their own party who would make that a negative for them. Also, at the end of the day, I’m reluctant to publicly endorse a candidate who I’m probably going to disagree with 60% of the time or more on council, as I won’t want to defend that later. Do I really want this person on council, or do I just think they’re a better, more qualified human than some folks on my side? Right now, I will tell you that I probably leave at least one space blank in this race, if not three.
Here in Palmer Township, we have a few local elections. Brian Snyder is unopposed in his school board race, so all I’m going to tell you here is he’s not this guy. Baron Vanderburg is unopposed to replace Zeke Bellis for the next four years as township Supervisor, so I could say nothing here, but I will just go ahead and tell you that Baron is one of the smartest, most dedicated, and hard working people in local government that I know, and I hope you enthusiastically vote for him. I used to serve on the Board of Auditors with Stephen Colbeth, and he’s unopposed, but vote for him anyway. Doreen Umholtz has been Tax Collector forever, and she’s unopposed to stay there, which is good. There are two contested Supervisor seats on the ballot in the township. First, I’m going to tell you to vote for Tung-To Lam, he’s a hard working young guy that knows township government already and has run an active campaign. Then I’m going to tell you that I don’t know any of the other three very well. From everything I’ve been told by current members of the board, Marcella Cardone will probably be the most productive and “no harm” of the three, so vote for her.
That’s my ballot. If you really want to dig further, and you have my phone number, you can call me to ask.
I struggle with this every day- am I still supporting the same party I have grown up supporting. The answer is yes, from the standpoint that Democrats are still the party protecting labor unions, the environment, access to health care, protection of the environment, and Civil Rights, to name some things. That doesn’t mean it’s the same party, and I think the image above nails how it’s changed. Did we support Native Americans in 2012? Yes. But what the hell is this? Rather than being for concrete things that help people, we’re now very into virtue signaling and appeasing activists and organizations. People like Graham Platner, Bob Brooks, AOC, Bernie Sanders, John Fetterman, and even Zohran Mamdani, may marginally agree with some parts of the Democratic platform, but they want a more extreme version that represents something totally different than Obama or Bill Clinton’s America. I prefer Obama and Clinton to this. So did America.
Back in the Spring, the PA House of Representatives passed House Bill 1200. It passed on a 102-101, party line vote. The PA Senate Law and Justice Committee then voted the bill down 3-7, with one member absent. Reportedly there is a new bill though that might just pass. Senate Chairman Daniel Laughlin is reportedly on board and has the support of all four Democrats on his committee. Reportedly there is a mirror bill sitting in the House that has bi-partisan sponsorship. If Senator Laughlin’s bill moves out of the committee and makes it to the State Senate floor, there is at least a decent chance that it will pass there. Then the House could consider the mirror bill and possibly advance this to either the Governor’s desk or a conference committee to iron out any differences.
An Act providing for the regulation and treatment of cannabis, for exemption from criminal or civil penalties, for effect on cannabis convictions and expungements and for membership and duties of the Liquor Control Board; establishing Pennsylvania Cannabis Stores; providing for social and economic equity, for license, permit or other authorization, for packaging, labeling, advertising and testing, for recordkeeping and inspection, for prohibitions and penalties and for tax and tax administration; establishing the Cannabis Revenue Fund, the Communities Reimagined and Reinvestment Restricted Account and the Substance Use Disorder Prevention, Treatment and Education Restricted Account; providing for the issuance of bonds; imposing duties on the Department of Agriculture and the Department of Revenue; and making repeals.
We are long, long past time to legalize, regulate, and tax marijuana. Everyone from high school kids to retirees uses marijuana. New Jersey and New York legalized it and have stores literally sitting on our borders. Our citizens are going into their states and buying marijuana, and the tax dollars on the sale are going to their public education systems, to help their senior citizens, and to replace their roads and bridges. We should be getting a piece of that pie for ourselves.
Reportedly, Mike Tyson is out in Harrisburg lobbying the State Senate for the bill. It could pass the State Senate as soon as this week. Governor Shapiro has been supportive of legalization and the things we could do with that money. It’s time for Harrisburg to act.
Apocalypse Vibes 