… And then there were four. Are you ready for the best Sunday of football this year? It’s time for the conference title games. As the season winds towards it’s conclusion, I think we can come to one major conclusion- this was a season of change. Kansas City, Philadelphia, and San Francisco are all not here (don’t write their permanent obituaries, but still). In fact, the only team playing in these conference title games that went past the first round in last year’s playoffs are the Los Angeles Rams. A new generation of great teams has arrived, and they will probably be around for a while.
Thoughts on both games:
New England (-4.5) @ Denver- Obviously Stidham starting instead of Nix colors any and all thoughts about this game for everyone. The former Auburn Tigers QB has played but a hand full of snaps all season, but does have experience as a starter in the NFL. Even so, I find it hard to believe that Vrabel’s defense isn’t going to frustrate him and take advantage of his mistakes after the way they handled Herbert and Stroud the last two weeks. New England very well might have won this game with Bo Nix playing. I’m taking them to cover as is.
Los Angeles @ Seattle (-2.5)- I’m kind of surprised by the early narrative about this game. I figured everyone would be predicting LA to walk back to the Super Bowl, but instead it’s Seattle who is the early favorite. Well, they looked like a team who should be favored in destroying San Francisco, backing up their top seed. LA didn’t look incredible in beating Chicago, but let’s consider something- they beat the #2 seed on the road in tough weather and a tough environment. That’s more impressive than we give it credit. Home field is a huge advantage usually, but this is a division game and I don’t think it matters as much. With that said, Seattle has looked like the best team for several weeks now. My head tells me they can’t beat LA twice in a row, but I watched what I watched this weekend.
As for who to cheer for- I don’t care very much. A Broncos win would be funny, but I don’t like Sean Payton. Can anyone in America wish more good for New England at this point? I do like Vrabel and Maye though. Seattle and Sam Darnold winning would silence a lot of narratives, but it could also jump start a run for them, and I don’t like that. Does anyone really want to see Los Angeles win anything right now? Let alone McVey fanboys will come out of the woodwork again. But I like Stafford a lot, and him winning a second title would cement his legacy. I’m totally ambivalent here. They’re all fine. They’re all not.
On to the updated rankings. From #9 back stays the same for now. From #5 to 8, this is the final placement. Here you go.
When is a receiver down by contact and when do they have to “survive the ground.” I’m not saying the refs screwed the Bills or the Bears with the way it was called this weekend, it seems to me like the rule is unclear, but isn’t that kind of a problem? Those plays could have changed seasons. How are we in 2026 and can’t have a uniform standard for when a receiver is down?
Should the Texans call Cincinnati? Ok, I’m serious here, C.J. Stroud for Joe Burrow is probably a ridiculous reach, but after that playoff performance by Stroud, you can’t help but wonder if the Texans would be championship favorites next year if they could pull it off. Look, a lot of teams will call about Burrow, but unless he demands a trade it won’t happen.
The Bills job is really attractive, but who is a real upgrade on McDermott? It’s fine to fire your coach because of continually coming up short, but don’t you need to have someone better to hire? I’m not sure who that coach is right now.
It was kind of a tough week for a lot of Phillies fans, even if some of us are less mad than others. First, Ranger Suarez left for Boston. That was sort of a known for a while (at least that he’s probably leaving), but is still easily the biggest blow to the Phillies roster this offseason. Ranger broke out as a closer in 2021, and then as the #3 starter on the 2022 NL Champions. He famously got the last out of the 2022 NLCS (See above) and threw a shut out in game three of the World Series that year. He made the All-Star game in 2024. More than anything, he was dependable. You were going to get almost exactly 25 or 26 starts a season, his ERA would be in the threes, and he’d be money in the playoffs (other than 2023’s game seven). The Phillies should be able to recover from this loss between the returning Zack Wheeler and the arriving Andrew Painter, but shoulds aren’t assured. This one definitely hurts them and removes a fan favorite.
Now that we have gone through that, let’s get to what transpired this week and really has people up in arms. The Dodgers paid a literally absurd $60 million a year to Kyle Tucker, a very good player, but not nearly on the level of Judge, Ohtani, or Soto, even at his best. Hell, it’s a literal absurdity that this guy is going to make double Bryce Harper this season (actually more), but the Dodgers can do that, and they do. They have a gigantic market, the second largest city in America and the largest county by a lot, and their TV deal is a monstrosity. It also really doesn’t hurt that back in the 2011-2012 era when the McCourt family owned the team and was in bankruptcy, MLB created a sweetheart agreement with them that shielded most of their TV revenue from the revenue sharing agreement that governs other big markets, like their neighboring Angels, the New York teams, Philly, Chicago, Boston, and the San Francisco Giants. The deal made total sense at the time and was the right thing to do (MLB was never going to let the Dodgers go under). To the credit of the Dodgers ownership, they put the extra money they make directly back into signing players, which is what fans should want. With all of that said, that agreement is no long necessary to the survival of the Dodgers. It is long past time for MLB to wrap the sweetheart agreement up, or let the other big markets play under the same sweetheart deal for the duration of the Dodgers deal. The Dodgers aren’t cheating or even doing anything they shouldn’t, but it’s not a fair or equal system for even the other big spenders.
I mostly mention the Dodgers here because their Tucker deal set off dominoes that did in fact impact the Phillies. Man-child Mets owner Steve Cohen was so shocked that the best player on the market didn’t want his money (like Alonso and Diaz, which is telling), that he not only pivoted to his next target, he made him an offer that was 150% of his existing best offer, annually, up to that point. It looked like Bo Bichette was coming to Philadelphia as late as Friday morning, and had a seven year, $200 million ($28 million a year) offer in hand, but Cohen turned around and gave a player that really doesn’t even fit on his roster three years and $126 million ($42 million a year). While it’s true they had talked to Bichette before that, the offer came in after being rejected by Tucker, and appears to have been negotiating against himself- no one else even considered offering Bichette $42 million a year. Now, I’m not going to tell you Bichette isn’t good, or that I didn’t want him in Philly, that’s childish, however I’m going to tell you that I would have rioted if the Phillies paid him anything near that. Bichette was smart to accept the wild overpay from the Mets, even if it means he probably won’t win a championship for a bit. If he plays out the whole contract, he would be 30 years old and only need a $74 million deal to match the total of what the Phillies offered him. He’s now going to crush $200 million in free agency earnings and be set up for life. Good for him, I don’t blame him at all.
None of this was good for baseball. The Dodgers showed us in 2025 that they could literally limit each of their pitchers innings and sleep walk to 90 plus wins and a spot in the postseason, and signing Tucker and Diaz this offseason only reinforces that. By doing what they did, the Dodgers and Mets are only increasing the likelihood of a lockout after the 2026 season, giving the small market owners more leverage to call for salary caps or increased revenue sharing, things I absolutely hate because they reward shitty owners (looking at you Pirates and Athletics). Salary caps don’t work. The NHL’s salary cap wrecked the sport. Even basic trades are nearly impossible in the NBA because of the salary cap. People celebrate the NFL salary cap for “creating parity,” but tell that to continuously shitty franchises in Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dallas, and Las Vegas that turnout huge profits each year. The NFL salary cap has just watered down what a great team is. Now we’re probably going to have a lockout because owners won’t even be able to agree to what they want, and even if they do, the players will never go for that. Sure, Dodgers fans can say “cry harder” about it, but what’s the point of having a dynasty if the sport ends up skipping a year or two because of it?
If I ran MLB, I would make a few simple fixes that would even out a lot of these problems without a hard cap or lockout.
Make deferments of pay count 100% against the luxury tax now. This one is pretty simple and would eliminate deals like Shohei Ohtani’s giving teams that are rich and good a windfall of cash to spend on other players.
Set a salary floor. Yes, I really don’t want to see the Athletics owner put a slop product out on the field and pocket tons of cash because fans like me will travel to Vegas to watch our team on the road. All of these teams bring in enough revenue to pay competitive players. Right now there are a half dozen to dozen cities in the league that aren’t even making a bad faith attempt to win games. That is bad for the league on every level. Every owner is rich. If the burden of trying is too much for you, sell.
Subject all media revenue to revenue sharing for every team. Yes, I’m looking at you, Los Angeles. No more sweetheart deals, ever. Again, since we’re going to make small market owners spend to at least a bare minimum now, I think you sweeten the revenue sharing agreement for them as well.
Incentivize teams to re-sign their own star players. I think every dollar spent on someone else’s free agents should count against the luxury tax number. Every dollar on your own guys? Perhaps if Pittsburgh were extending Paul Skenes, that could count at a reduced rate against the tax. 90%? 85%? You can figure out the number. Make it more appealing for small market teams to keep good teams together though when they build them. Hell, this is even good for big market teams. If Kyle Schwarber only was a 90% hit against the tax, the Phillies would have had more money to spend this offseason. I’d even go so far as to incentivize a team more to continuously re-sign homegrown players they keep throughout their careers.
Institute an international draft. I think we’re almost universally tired of seeing players from Asia pick the same two or three teams. The situation in Latin America has improved dramatically with caps on what teams can spend there, but it’s still all relative to how your franchise wishes to use it. I’ve never really seen a good reason why international players aren’t subject to a draft system, even if it were like the Rule 5 draft or waiver wire, that would allow every market a chance to tap into some of the global talent. Basically international players can still choose to sign with teams who are already good, and make the rich richer. Spread that talent out.
Tier penalties for signing players who receive a qualifying offer. There are teams who simply can’t afford to sign a player who received a qualifying offer, because they can’t afford to lose draft picks on the first two days. What if teams in the bottom third of the standings the season before could sign players without losing their picks? This would be quite an incentive to go out and try to compete, especially since we’d now have a salary floor.
Stiffen luxury tax penalties for repeat offenders in higher tiers. Take first round picks in both the domestic and international drafts and make new signings count 110% on the luxury tax for other teams’ free agents. Give them no compensation for losing a player with a qualifying offer. You can make it hurt enough that they’ll think about it. 29 teams have a budget as is, the tax on it’s own has an impact.
These are just a few ideas to try and bring competitive balance to the league. Look, we all know some NBA teams just make paper transactions to meet the salary minimum, and some of these owners will try to do that. We also know there are teams like Washington with huge markets and rich owners who aren’t even faking that they want to win right now, who would just do the bare minimum until they think they can win. At least under this system you would be preventing them from pocketing as much cash.
Now, so back to my Phillies. They did re-sign J.T. Realmuto this week for three years and $45 million. Technically when that becomes official they will have 41 players on the 40 man roster (and Justin Crawford will still need a spot), so someone will have to come off soon. This puts the current projected payroll at $316,780,437 for 2026. My guess is they will try to shop Garrett Stubbs or Rafael Marchan, as both catchers are out of options and one will have to clear waivers when they don’t make the team. Nick Castellanos is obviously a candidate to go now too, and with a lack of right handed hitting outfield and DH options left, he should have some market if the Phillies are willing to eat at least $15 million to move him. With that said, if we are not considering the clubhouse issues, Castellanos wouldn’t be the worst right-handed platoon partner with Brandon Marsh in left (Trust me, they aren’t considering it). Taijuan Walker and his $18,000,000 salary is a candidate to go, and the Phillies could probably move at least $8-10,000,000 of his money off the books now if they wanted. Given the loss of Ranger though, the rotation is a bit light and probably could use him around for depth. Of course, Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh are all potential trade pieces yet, particularly if the Phillies make any more free agency moves. The Phillies could use another depth pitcher, a right handed bat to hit behind Harper, and if we’re going with Marsh in left, perhaps an upgrade right-handed platoon partner.
The market is not dead yet either. Eugenio Suarez seems like the most straight forward offensive upgrade available. He’s right handed, he plays third base, and he hit 49 homers a year ago. He does strike out a lot, his defense isn’t good, and he’s old. If he can be had on a two year deal, I would be less than shocked if the Phillies paid him $25 million a year. Look, they were offering Bichette $28 million and Realmuto $12 million a year as of Friday morning, so Suarez for $25 million and Realmuto for $15 million fits exactly into the financial footprint. It also makes trading Bohm and his $10.2 million one year salary a pretty straight forward salary dump without a particular need in what you get back. Suarez is flawed in plenty of ways, and you can question if you want to sign him and put Aidan Miller at second if and when he arrives, but he’s a pretty straight forward move. He’d also be the best cleanup option the Phillies have had since Ryan Howard’s prime.
Of course there is also Cody Bellinger. The fit here is a little less obvious, as while Bellinger was probably only second to really Tucker on this market, he’s left handed and the Phillies have plenty of that. Of course, if they signed Bellinger, he’d probably replace left-handed hitting Brandon Marsh, so he doesn’t really make things worse. Bellinger can play any outfield spot, hits for power, and would probably mash in the Phillies ballpark. The Phillies could probably offer him the exact same seven year, $200 million deal they offered Bichette and get him too, as he is reportedly sticking to seven years in his talks with the Yankees. Do I love that deal with him? Look, I think he has a really good four years in front of him, I’d be fine with him at five, but those last two years will probably be ugly. Even so, the Phillies window is realistically three years with this group, so what if you eat a few bad years after that. Sure, he and Harper are both lefties, but both can hit lefties, so I don’t mind them hitting back to back. Now, it’s true that if you pay him $28-30 million, he and Realmuto are more expensive than they seemed to be willing to go before, but it would also open up Marsh for a trade that would even things back out. I get why some people don’t love this idea, but Bellinger is a great player and could be a decent fit for the Phillies if they want.
I also wouldn’t count out that they decide to just bring back Harrison Bader and role the dice with four starting outfielders on the opening day roster, playing whoever the hot hand is at any given time. In fact, I don’t really hate this at all. A two year or even three year deal around $12 million a year with Bader would free up some cash for the Phillies to even go out and look for another starting pitcher, perhaps an older guy that could give you 20 good starts or a swing man, and make trading Walker plausible again. I definitely wouldn’t be mad at that.
Somehow, despite all that happened, a lot more probably will happen in baseball over the next month. That’s what makes it fun though- scrolling twitter and reading all the rage tweets from people when the Dodgers land Peralta, or Phillies fans lamenting the team being “cheap” for not giving an infielder who has never hit 30 homers and has no position more money than Aaron Judge to play here this year. What would life be without this?
To say I think it’s unfair and stupid is an understatement. Julian Guridy got screwed. Despite the fact he clearly grew up in the town he was going to run to represent, he’s ineligible to run for the State House because of his residency- he grew up there and has lived there again for three years. Apparently because he lived in Florida for a few years as a young adult, the 90% of his life he lived here isn’t enough.
This rule is absolute bullshit, a state constitutional relic that only exists today to protect incumbent legislators from real challenges. It’s apparently easier to be eligible to run for Congress than the State House. The legislature should be working to fix this so it doesn’t happen again. This is just terrible.
So now Ana Tiburcio, a member of the Allentown School Board, will be the candidate in February’s Special Election. She almost certainly will beat Bob Smith, who has run for virtually every legislative office in the city of Allentown and only ever won the school board. That will make Tiburcio an incumbent in May’s primary, but she will not get a free pass. Erlinda Augilar sought the party nomination for the special election, though I have not seen if she plans to run in May or not. Allentown Councilwoman CeCe Gerlach definitely plans to run. This will be a highly competitive race. Much of Gerlach’s message about the party “bosses” (such a ridiculous term) trying to pick the candidate instead of the people still works, if not better now that she’s been passed over twice. Gerlach also probably has a sizable name recognition advantage over Tiburcio. While party insiders like to complain about Gerlach, I don’t see much evidence that the voting public hates her. Sure, she lost for Mayor when the story about her dropping a minor at the “tent city” homeless encampment came out close to the primary election, but even then she was within a couple of points of winning. Since then she was re-elected handily to the council. I’m not sure that a bunch of endorsements from people not in her district are going to be what sinks her, but maybe a huge investment by House Democratic leadership would get it done. That also kind of seems silly in a safe Democratic seat. If this is a real fight and isn’t just bought by Harrisburg, Gerlach just might win anyway.
All of this really doesn’t look great for the Democrats. It looks like people didn’t do their homework ahead of time and just figured they could rubber stamp their way through. Is that the truth? Of course not. Guridy had worked hard to become the choice of most of the party. Reality matters a lot less than optics. Now there is a chance that a very, very independent leftist voice will win and represent the 22nd District, an outsider to the Allentown establishment. If you can get yourself far enough away from the mess to be objective, it kind of looks like some folks walked themselves right into it.
State Senator Lisa Boscola is a moderate Democrat. That makes some folks mad, but she’s ultimately with the Democratic caucus on nearly every vote. We notice when she’s not because it’s rare, and because the Senate Dems are a super highly regional caucus at this point, nearly all of their members are in or near Philadelphia and Allegheny Counties, the most liberal spots in the state. The reality is that a State Senator from the Lehigh Valley really can’t always vote like a Philadelphia Democrat, they’ll lose re-election. Your options are someone like Senator Boscola, or a Republican. Choose wisely.
Look, I think the current version of ICE is simply unworkable. I was for Lamont McClure’s executive order to keep them out of Northampton County’s courthouse without a warrant, and I’m for Tara Zrinski strengthening that. I also don’t think we need Easton or Bethlehem deciding they are going to put a big neon light on themselves and declare themselves a “sanctuary” city for people who are here illegally, and I don’t think a society is simply wrong for enforcing their borders and immigration laws. Are we wrong to employ an armed gestapo to terrorize people over immigration? Yes. There is a happy in-between of course, we had it for eight years under Barack Obama. He deported far more people than Trump or Biden without being cruel and inhumane doing it. We were safer because of it.
I don’t think this criticism of Boscola is random of course. Taiba ran against Bob Freeman for the state house unsuccessfully in 2024, losing by more than 50% of the vote. She’s going to try and run against Boscola. This is an even harder, worse district for her to try and win in than the House one, and it’s not going to go well for her. If she decides to run her race saying Senator Boscola is opposed to illegal immigration, she just might end up losing worse in this race than she did in 2024.
By my count, the Phillies payroll is around $302.7 million for 2026 currently, and that’s before you add on any luxury tax. They are just under a million from hitting the next tier of luxury tax, which is to say their next signing will literally cost them dollar for dollar whatever they spend. They also have a full 40 man roster currently and would have to drop someone to add anyone. Despite all of that, they almost certainly will make another move, regardless of who it is. Their roster is simply not quite as good as the Dodgers, and literally lacks a starting catcher.
The move that I and every other Phillies fan with a pulse wants is Bo Bichette. He’s right handed, he’s going to be an upgrade offensively at either of second or third base, he’s young, and yes, he’s actually good. Of course, it’s not necessarily going to be easy to get him- some of the other big spenders on the chart above also want him. He’s going to require years, and he’s going to require dollars. Probably eight to ten years for the Phillies to close the deal, and the dollars probably start around Trea Turner’s $27.273 million as a floor and move upward from there. If he’s an eight year deal at $30 million a year, at least in 2026 he’s actually costing $60 million unless the Phillies can shed enough salary to offset it.
That’s of course only one move. They need a catcher. They probably should be trying to bring back Ranger Suarez. Being conservative here, a late off-season spending spree on Bichette, Realmuto, and Suarez would probably cost $65-70 million. The Phillies could go for less expensive catching and pitching options and I wouldn’t be that mad, but you’re still talking about adding $40 million, which is actually $80 million. That’s a lot.
For this reason, there are some folks very skeptical that the Phillies can do any of this, let alone will. There’s some truth to their arguments, but I think the Phillies have already answered this, at least to a point. Back in December the Phillies offered J.T. Realmuto a contract that was reportedly somewhere near two years at $15 million a year. That money would have taken them over the next luxury tax threshold and cost them an actual $30 million this year. Assuming those numbers and reports are true, we know they were at least willing to go that far.
Let’s assume for a moment the Phillies would go a different direction than paying Realmuto and Suarez top market dollar. Let’s just start with a Bichette signing at $30 million and work from there (obviously I think the Phillies will try to buy that number down with years, but bare with me). One would assume that the Phillies will obviously try and move Nick Castellanos, but that’s likely only going to net a few million. Let’s guess $2 million for argument’s sake. They could put Taijuan Walker on the market, and I bet they would be able to get out of a portion of his contract, somewhere between $8 million and $10 million. If the Phillies moved those two and saved $10 million (for argument’s sake, again), now the Bichette signing is more like $40 million for this year, instead of $60 million post-tax, and the only issue is being a bit light on starting pitching until Zack Wheeler returns. It’s at least a start, and only about $10 million more expensive than the reported Realmuto deal would have been.
The obvious elephant in the room then is that the Phillies probably would be forced into a decision of who to keep between Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh. The general group thinking is Alec Bohm and his $10.2 million salary go- he makes the most, it’s a walk year, and the Phillies have kind of grown impatient with him. On the contrary though, he’s a right handed bat, you really are only trying to man third base until Aidan Miller is ready later this season or next, and he probably gets you the least back as a rental (the others have two years left). Obviously if you did move Bohm’s salary along with Castellanos and Walker, you’d basically cut the impact of the Bichette deal down to $10 million or less in taxable money, or less than you originally offered Realmuto. You could go bargain shopping then at catcher and getting a fifth starter, and probably come out right around what you originally planned to spend. That’s of course assuming you don’t fill one or two of these needs moving Bohm, Walker, and Castellanos.
There is an argument to deal at least one of Stott and Marsh though instead, and others have already made some of the arguments very well. It’s worth noting that under the assumption the Phillies get Bichette, Boston does not. Boston is actively seeking infield help up the middle and probably now at third base. Bryson Stott would probably have a ton of appeal to them, as they could move him back to shortstop and bump Trevor Story over to second, and have a really good defensive tandem up the middle. Boston could also want Bohm, or even Edmundo Sosa, and the Phillies could get out from under a lot of money if they somehow flipped any two of them. Boston is also a team that has a surplus of outfielders. The obvious name everyone will scream is Jarren Duran, but there will be a competitive market for him, and they have others too. What if the Phillies could pull off a move like that though? The market on Stott would be very healthy (Yankees? Angels?), and the Phillies could fill another big need by moving him. If they were to get a right-handed hitting starting corner outfielder, it would make Marsh available on the market then as well. Brandon Marsh is coming off of a very nice season and could very well land the Phillies back a catcher, a back end starting pitcher, or utility player as part of the package. Stott and Marsh together will make $11.1 million, or $900k more than Bohm, which would even further negate the impact of the Bichette signing on the luxury tax.
All of these are hypotheticals, and trades move slower than a lot of fans of baseball like. I’m not really sitting here saying that the answer is to trade Stott to Boston for an outfielder and turn around and trade Marsh for a starting catcher, while signing Bichette, trading Walker and Castellanos, and bringing in another arm. I’m mostly saying there are totally plausible ways though for the Phillies to afford Bichette and possibly even another player or two while staying somewhat within range of the budget they had set for themselves before. The presumption that signing Bichette is a $60 million cost this season sort of presumes they can do nothing between now and next off-season when they get hit with the bill. As I see it, the Phillies have multiple ways to re-tool their roster and stay somewhat close to budget. As for the details of those pathways, Dombrowski should be working on them now, so he can put his best offer forward to Bichette.
Apocalypse Vibes 