Everything is a business decision, especially in politics. How much is a seat worth to your party? You really can’t win everywhere, because you lack the resources, so the question ultimately is what are your odds of winning, and what is the cost? Activists like to talk about competing everywhere, but that’s anti-reality.

Democrats are highly unlikely to win the Senate in 2026. Notice I did not say they won’t or can’t, I said unlikely. They need to flip four seats to the positive this year. They have varying degrees of difficult defenses to fight in Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota. Realistically they need to win all of those to maintain a shot at future majorities. They came into this cycle only realistically thinking they had a shot at North Carolina and Maine. Michigan has gone worse so far than they could have hoped, Georgia has gone better, and North Carolina could not be going better if the GOP conceded it. Maine, for all of the talk about it, is basically going exactly the same as it was going in 2020 at this point, when Gideon was beating Collins handily and was expected to flip the seat- only to lose badly. Gideon never trailed in that race and her lead looked a lot like Platner’s did in October of that year. So at no point will that race look safe.

So let’s assume for a second that we’re holding Georgia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota, flipping North Carolina, and Michigan may very well come down to who is our nominee. Maine remains solidly on the board either way, maybe even give Democrats slightly better than even money odds at it. We’d be at best +2 in the Senate, two seats short, and at worst sitting even. That’s not going to get us a majority. Almost all hopes of the Democrats flipping the Senate still will rest on three time Trump states voting Democratic. Sherrod Brown lost his seat in 2024 and would have to beat the appointed replacement for J.D. Vance, which is very possible, but very difficult. Mary Peltola, who has won Alaska before, would have to defeat a Republican incumbent where the voters there know that voting for her is giving Democrats a potential majority. There are hopes for the open Iowa seat, but we do have a somewhat bruising primary there to even get the shot to convince Iowa voters to pull the plug on Trump in the Senate after giving him three large victories, and a decade of Democrats losing literally every Governor and Senate race there. And of course, there’s Texas. I think Talarico is probably a pretty good candidate, but Texas is still Texas, and we don’t know yet how much ill will there is towards him from Black voters in the state from the Jasmine Crockett primary. Could each of these races flip individually? Yes, it’s possible. Could all four of them flip together? The odds drop a lot, but it is *possible*. Can Democrats win probable difficult defenses in Georgia, New Hampshire, and Michigan, flip both of North Carolina and Maine, *AND* win at least two of Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas? I’m going to tell you, for those of you who like to gamble on sports, you would be getting a big plus money line on this parlay. Of the nine states I just named, Harris won two of them. Do you think the Democratic Party is that much stronger than it was in 2024? You’re being wishful. In 2018, the Democrats won 40 seats in the House in a landslide win, but *lost* seats in the Senate that were being fought on red turf. If you’re saying you think Democrats win the Senate, you’re basically saying Democrats are considerably stronger than they were in 2018. I know you want to think there is a mass exodus of MAGA voters from supporting the GOP right now, but you’re being very hopeful, some might even say delusional. I guess you can hope that their turnout drops wildly enough to put some of these seats in play and maybe we pull the inside straight with exactly a four seat flip. I’m just saying evidence suggests you probably won’t get it.

So then this begs a pretty simple question, one that I’d suggest has a complex answer. Senate Democrats will have to decide at some point if Graham Platner is worth the trouble to elect in Maine. The DSCC will make the decision to fund him, I will spare you that question for now. They have to if they really want to win the Senate, and his polling probably will never be bad, even if it’s just another Gideon situation. I say probably because we really have no idea what is still out there on this guy. I mean in the past week or so we found out he likes masturbating in public places, he said a Marine who received a Purple Heart should have died, and we’re hearing rumblings of Republicans looking into his income, since he receives disability benefits for his PTSD. I mean, even if you want to assume that the general electorate full of less partisan people than the Democratic Primary are going to forgive the Nazi tattoo, comments about urinating on dead bodies, and being a mercenary, what else is out there, how much proverbial straw will it take to break the camel’s back, and how much money will they pour into taking this guy out? It’s going to take a herculean effort to make sure this guy survives when the Fall comes. That’s assuming we even can, especially as Republicans also pour money into a likely flip RED in ME-2. Is it doable? There’s definitely a chance. Easy? Absolutely not.

So alright, I’ll ask the question again- is it worth it? Best case, the party spends an ungodly amount of cash to get a guy across the line who has a Nazi tattoo, thinks Black people don’t tip, and is a treasure chest of red flags that our core voters typically don’t like. He’ll arrive in Washington and immediately be the new AOC- attacked with every negative term conservatives know, in this case focusing on Nazi, weirdo, and Socialist. He attacks the Democratic Party any chance he gets, so he’ll hurt other candidates and turn off voters in other races we need to win. In a word, the guy is a nuisance. Of course they’re going to fund him and try to win, because that’s the only purpose for the DSCC to exist. Is it worth it though, really? Congressman Jake Auchincloss is right in saying it’s not, and calling this Nazi unacceptable. Him winning isn’t even worth the headaches as is, Democrats flocking to defend this scumbag are building the next round of GOP ammo for them to use against us.

Hard “no thanks” from me.