NFL Power Rankings, 12/9

/ Rich Wilkins / 6 Comments

Here’s a serious question- is there a chance that both Super Bowl teams from last year, teams that have met in two of the last three Super Bowls, miss the playoffs? The answer is yes. With that said, the answer is that is still unlikely. Kansas City is dead in the water at this point, sure. Philadelphia looks cooked, but they play Las Vegas and Washington for three of their last four games. With even a 2-2 finish, the Eagles are 10-7. Dallas would have to win out to beat that. Even so, it’s possible.

As soon as everyone got high on Chicago being good, they go and get manhandled in Green Bay, a team who has their flaws too. Go figure. Increasingly to me, it looks like the Rams are the team to beat in the NFC, just by being consistent. The West and North are very good divisions, and their finishes should be exciting. The East is really just a matter of if Philadelphia can beat a couple of teams playing out the string the next two weeks, and the South is a dumpster fire where the Carolina Panthers feel like the hot hand. Remember back in September when the Buccaneers looked great and Baker was leading the MVP chase. That was fun.

Denver now has all two way tiebreakers over New England, which is insane to me, but whatever. Those two look great. Jacksonville has shocked everyone and taken over the South, but Houston is charging hard and has the best defense in the league right now. The Chargers and Bills are very alive, and I wouldn’t want them in that Wild Card round if I were one of these young upstart teams. Someone has to win the North. Increasingly that looks like Pittsburgh. Is this good for that franchise? Probably not. Nobody else seems to want this division title though. While I still wouldn’t be shocked if the Ravens win if it comes down to the head-to-head in the final game, right now Pittsburgh has the edge.

Now, this week’s rankings.

12/3 rankings. 11/26 rankings. 11/18 rankings. 11/11 rankings. 11/4 rankings. 10/28 rankings. 10/21 rankings. 10/15 rankings. 10/8 rankings. 9/30 rankings. 9/24 rankings. 9/16 rankings. 9/9 rankings.

  1. Denver Broncos
  2. New England Patriots
  3. Los Angeles Rams
  4. Green Bay Packers
  5. Seattle Seahawks
  6. Buffalo Bills
  7. Jacksonville Jaguars
  8. San Francisco 49’ers
  9. Chicago Bears
  10. Los Angeles Chargers
  11. Houston Texans
  12. Detroit Lions
  13. Philadelphia Eagles
  14. Indianapolis Colts
  15. Carolina Panthers
  16. Dallas Cowboys
  17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  18. Miami Dolphins
  19. Pittsburgh Steelers
  20. Baltimore Ravens
  21. Kansas City Chiefs
  22. Minnesota Vikings
  23. Cincinnati Bengals
  24. Atlanta Falcons
  25. Cleveland Browns
  26. New York Jets
  27. Arizona Cardinals
  28. New Orleans Saints
  29. Washington Commanders
  30. New York Giants
  31. Tennessee Titans
  32. Las Vegas Raiders

Why Obama and Biden’s Norms Failed

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

This past year, in Northampton County’s vast ruby red Northern Tier there was an election to be the Magisterial Judge in the Wind Gap/Plainfield area. There were two respectable, good people running to be the new judge. One won the Republican nomination, and eventually the seat, and the other won the Democratic nomination. In the Democratic Primary, there were 1,522 votes cast. Over 10% of them (195) went to a third candidate in the race- the candidate was at the January 6th rally in 2021 that ended up ransacking the capitol (no idea if he went inside or not). This same candidate was also at the center of a legal case involving the Northampton County GOP showing home made pornography at their general membership meeting (to be clear here, as the victim). He also was reportedly saying in his campaign that he did not believe PFA’s were constitutional, and he wouldn’t enforce them (I have nowhere to link to here because the campaign is over). Even with all of that, this individual received nearly 200 Democratic primary votes. Is it possible some of them just didn’t know what they were doing? Sure. Over 10% of them? No. Some people knowingly and willingly voted for this guy.

One of the unpleasant, but absolutely true things to know about our democracy and the people participating in it is that the people don’t really trust politicians or experts anymore. It’s more pronounced on one side, but it’s not limited to that side. Politics have become almost entirely tribal, completely culturally, and more or less, emotional. Nearly every institution from the White House to the Army, to the Catholic Church, to banks, to college football powers, have been engaged in a scandal in the last 50 years that have wrecked public trust with them. No one likes banks. Organized religion has been in a decline with the public for years. No President has been willing to get into a protracted war after Iraq. Faith in institutions is gone. People tend to believe the institutions aren’t for them. Experts work for them, not for us, or something.

Whether you believe Barack Obama was born in Kenya, 9/11 was an inside job, or Trump had Epstein killed, an increasing number of people on your side agree with you. This has not been true in the past. People basically don’t believe anything their told, as long as it does fit their world view, as you can see in the polling above.

This is, in and of itself, the main reason that Barack Obama and Joe Biden ultimately gave way to Donald Trump. They ran a political party based on “managing” society right. There’s a lack of audience for that. An increasing share of the American left are also chiefly concerned with “getting stuff” from the government. If they don’t, they’re not super interested. They also aren’t interested with a government run by “experts” if it isn’t doing what they want. People don’t believe the experts. They don’t believe the institutions. They believe nutty videos on YouTube and TikTok though. You know they’d never lie to you or manipulate you, right?

Are You Talkin’ to Me? The Good Ole’ Boys and Girls in Harrisburg Don’t Want the Voters to Choose in PA-7

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Last week I met Crooksy in the flesh. I have before, but I know I was not as interested in it then. His campaign manager walked up with him at an event, outside of the actual event, and said to him “this is Rich Wilkins, the guy who writes mean things about you.” You know what, that’s sort of accurate (I write accurate things about him), and it’s actually pretty funny. I said “how do you do,” and moved along. It was cold, but cordial. That’s really all it needed to be. I have said the guy would be inappropriate as a nominee, let alone a Congressman. I stand by that.

Later on in the event, a labor “personality” from a union that backs Crooksy decided to let me know they were unhappy with my coverage of their endorsement. After questioning why I didn’t ask them first if I was right (someone involved told me, why would I?) quite aggressively, I asked a pretty straight forward question- was what I wrote wrong? Their answer- “it didn’t go down the way you wrote it.” I don’t know, if I was going to confront someone like that, I’d probably be able to just say “yes, you were wrong” when asked that. Hey though, I guess sometimes the truth is a problem for some.

Look, I have the least skin in the game of anyone in this whole shenanigan- I don’t work for anyone involved in the race. I’m not going to work for anyone in the race. While I have a preference in the race, there are several candidates I could accept if they won. It has been said to friends of mine that I’m “harming my ability to work” by being so vocal about Crooksy. Huh? I haven’t worked for an actual candidate since before my health scare, almost two years, and I’m not really trying to. I charged my last candidate gas money basically for a couple months of work, because I grew up looking up to them and just wanted to help them through. These people want to blacklist me from a job I don’t want or have? Allegedly I won’t be able to work anymore judicial races, at least at the state level. You wouldn’t believe how badly that has me torn up, I might not be able to go on here (I shouldn’t have to tell you to read that with sarcasm, but yeah.). I didn’t have people attempting to blacklist me from work I don’t do on my 2025 bingo card, but I think this is supposed to scare me or something. Listen, I was almost dead once, you’re going to have to do better than that to scare me now. At least threaten to kneecap my good leg or something, I might blink. I’ve never really socialized with my co-workers much, the ones I am friends with know we’re friends. The rest? Honestly, maybe we’re acquaintances. I find myself more and more at odds with the world a lot of these people are trying to build. My attachment level is pretty low at this point.

These folks are hellbent to make sure people don’t have choices in this primary and don’t hear information about the people they want to thrust onto the voters. They had emissaries up here trying to clear the field and rally support. It didn’t work. They think if voters hear about the candidates, they won’t pick their guy. They’re probably right. What I don’t think they want to realize is, the 9-1-1 calls are coming from inside of their own house. Most of what I write is coming from people they tell it to. You think I found this stuff on my own? I dug up social media posts? I mean, this stuff is fair game, but it was given to me. It came from multiple sources. There’s more of it not yet written. The stuff I knew about the guy is stuff that quite frankly I can’t write, it lacks sources willing to talk about it. At least right now. Look, the total readership of this blog isn’t going to move this primary. I mostly put it out hoping the right reader will see it. I have no grand illusions here. If you want to spend all day mad about it, go right on ahead.

I don’t think I’ll be asking the good ole’ boys and girls out on the Susquehanna for a green light on anything. I mean, God bless, but they just don’t really matter to me. If they did, I’d be writing about them. God knows normal people would cringe if they read that kind of stuff.

The Phillies at the Winter Meetings

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Well, we’ve reached judgment day. I’ve written about the Phillies off-season outlook a few times (Here, here, and here.) and even said before the season was over that a breakup could be in order. Over the next three or four days, we will see if that indeed happens. Going in, I have the Phillies approximate payroll as is at $238,098,771, just a few million below the luxury tax. Their 40 man roster has lost two (Robert and Mercado) since I last wrote, and gained one (OF Pedro Leon, from the Astros AAA roster) and now sits at 32.

There are four major free agents from the Phillies roster to watch. Kyle Schwarber is the biggest, after hitting 56 homers in 2025, and the expectation is he will get five years and somewhere between $135 and $150 million ($27 to $30 million a year). J.T. Realmuto may be the most urgent, just because of the lack of catchers even near his level, and he is expected to command two years and somewhere around $25 million total ($12.5 million-ish a year). Ranger Suarez is probably the one it will hurt the most to leave, and he’s probably looking at six years and around $160 million total ($26-27 million a year). Finally there’s Harrison Bader, who was a key pick up at the deadline to the Phillies taking off and running away from the Mets. He is expected to get two to three years in the $12 millionish a year range.

The Phillies also seem to be looking to trade away a few guys. Obviously on top of the list is Nick Castellanos and his $20 million for one more year, which the Phillies are essentially trying to just dump a few million of to whoever will take it (Maybe $2-5 million range in savings). Then there’s Taijuan Walker, who they may or may not actually want to trade him and his $18 million salary for this last season of his deal, which could actually make him an affordable, attractive option to a lot of teams if the Phillies will pay him down to the $8-10 million range. Matt Strahm ($7.5 million), Tanner Banks ($1.2 million), and Jose Alvarado ($9 million) are all possible trade pieces and all would have pretty considerable value to other teams. Alec Bohm ($10.3 million) is definitely available in the final year of his arbitration control, as could possibly be Bryson Stott ($5.8 million) or Brandon Marsh ($4.5 million). Both back-up catchers, Rafael Marchan ($1 million) and Garrett Stubbs ($925,000) are probably available once the Phillies address the starting catcher position. I would call lit a long shot that the Phillies would trade Jesus Luzardo ($10.4 million), but he is in a walk year now and we’re not hearing a whole lot about an extension yet (This makes a lot more sense if they somehow re-sign Suarez). Top prospect Andrew Painter, Aidan Miller, and Justin Crawford have not been available, and probably only are in a mega blockbuster (Think Skubal, or even Skenes here).

The Phillies have some definite needs going into these meetings. If not Schwarber, they will need a major power bat either in the outfield or to DH. Their outfield needs a makeover either way. Second base and third base could be upgraded on for sure. They need a starting catcher. They absolutely need another right-handed reliever to pitch late in games. Their rotation is probably fine, but there are question marks you’d like to sure up.

Here’s what I’d like to see:

  • At least one major bat signing. Yes, this can mean Kyle Schwarber and I’ll be happy if it is. I would be completely fine with it being Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger, Alex Bregman, or even Eugenio Suarez. Look, Schwarber was a great signing and a fan favorite in Philly but he’s 32, he only can play DH, and he’s another lefty in a line-up full of lefties. If they bring him back, they need to add some right-handed bats elsewhere to balance this line-up out better. Bellinger, Bregman, and Tucker all profile a little better over the life of a five year deal, and Suarez is said to only be seeking a three year deal. The Phillies absolutely need one of these guys though.
  • They must leave with a catcher. I was not as crazy about Harry Ford (traded from Seattle to DC) as others, as his defense and power have real question marks, and I hated the price (five years of a controllable lefty reliever are nice). The Phillies either need to re-sign Realmuto or get creative on the trade market and find a two to three year solution fast. Realmuto’s price doesn’t sound crazy and the Phillies might be well advised to just pay it. Perhaps once you do, you look around for more help at the catcher position that is younger.
  • They need to trade for at least one more offensive upgrade. With lefty relievers, a starting pitcher(or more?), and a few 20-something position players on their roster available to move, let alone prospects, the Phillies have the fire power to bring in a right-handed bat somewhere that represents an upgrade, regardless of what happens with Schwarber. Jarren Duran is probably at the top of this list, but he’s not the only guy available out there. They can be an infielder or outfielder, either way the Phillies just need a hitter who deepens their lineup and offers some protection for their big bats. Basically someone to do what Castellanos didn’t.
  • Whether they trade for (preferable, probably) or sign (probably a rough market) a right handed arm to pitch late in games, they need someone to team with Kerkering as a right-handed set-up man. A bullpen with whoever the addition is, Kerkering, and two of Alvarado, Strahm, and Banks would look very good for the regular season.
  • Figure out a way on Ranger Suarez. Yes, I know, it’s not a “need.” But it is. You have no idea what will actually happen with Wheeler yet. Nola is a question mark after the worst year of his career, and five seasons ahead on his contract. Luzardo is in a walk year, and you probably need to re-sign him regardless. Painter hasn’t thrown an MLB pitch yet and may start the year in AAA. Walker is what he is, which is serviceable but far from what you want pitching a big game. Ranger Suarez is who he is at this point, a very reliable playoff rotation arm that isn’t quite as durable as you hope for, but is clutch when you need it. Move the money around and make it happen.

They’re not going to get all of this done here and now. Last year they acquired Luzardo right before Christmas. They also should not be afraid to throw Crawford into the line-up opening day to fill one line-up spot, and Aidan Miller later down the road in the season at either second or third. Now is the time to be a bit daring with what you can do with Bohm, Stott, and possibly even Marsh (though a .280 hitter in the outfield is a nice piece), as they have been unwilling to extend any of them so far. There is no sense holding them until free agency and letting them walk, the Phillies aren’t getting compensatory first round picks when they lose them.

Running it back is not an option. I will not be super excited if all they do is bring back players who were here in 2025. They have tried the group as is for four years, and they have not had a parade down Broad Street yet.

Who Belongs in the CFB Playoffs?

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Well, now that we know who won the conferences, it’s time to debate who belongs in the College Football Playoffs. I’ll start by saying I think this is the dumbest system possible, and too many teams get in. Yes, you read me right. I do not think putting more and more teams in to have more and more games is fun. The point of a playoff is to crown the best champion. Generally if I had my way, we wouldn’t be having arguments about the eleventh and twelfth teams. Teams that far from first really shouldn’t get a shot. In fact, if I really had my way, it would be more simple than that. Conference champions and teams that lost zero or one games would be in. Everybody else enjoy the Pop-Tart Bowl.

So, by my standard, Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech, Duke (LOL), Ohio State, Oregon, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss are in the conversation. With all due respect to JMU and Tulane, and Group of 5 team really should have went undefeated to get in. My system is not the system though. The top 5 conference champions get bids. So Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech, Tulane, and JMU get bids. Ok, fine, whatever. Other than winning a ridiculous conference title (more on that later), there is no human logic that can make an argument for Duke being in the playoffs. So after those five, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss are locks to me. That leaves three spots that frankly will go to teams I don’t believe deserve a shot.

Everyone seems ready to give Oklahoma a bid, and given that they beat Alabama in like the last month, they should get one over the Crimson Tide. I’m sorry that your conference has a ridiculous tie breaking system (still beats the ACC and Mountain West), Alabama is not better than maybe the fifth best team in the SEC. That leaves us with two spots for Miami, Notre Dame, Alabama, Texas, BYU, and Vanderbilt to argue over. For me, first things first, all the three loss teams are no’s. These teams are very good, but the season as a whole should mean something. That takes us from 4 to 2. BYU is out because the Big 12 is basically just the island of misfit toys right now, lacking a signature brand name team, let alone a group of them. Do we really think the conference is good? I don’t. Texas Tech might be, and they murdered BYU. Vanderbilt is a nice story and had a nice season. They’re wildly overrated. They’re probably the 7th best team in their conference, and 7th best teams don’t belong in. Yes, they beat everyone they should. That’s nice. Maybe the Gator Bowl this year? This leaves us with Notre Dame and Miami. I would put both of them in.

There’s going to be a lot of whining by SEC fans and media to give them like seven slots. Let’s talk about the SEC for a moment, and what they really did this year. Since getting sent home without their lunch money by Notre Dame last year, Georgia went 8-1 vs. the SEC, and 4-0 vs. Marshall, Austin Peay, Charlotte, and Georgia Tech. Since losing last year’s Las Vegas Bowl to USC, Texas A&M went 7-1 vs. the SEC, and 4-0 against UTSA, Utah State, Notre Dame (probably the conference’s best non-conference win), and Samford. Ole Miss lost their coach to a dysfunctional conference rival, but went 7-1 in the SEC, and 4-0 against Georgia State, Tulane (not bad, but G5), Washington State, and Citadel. Since losing last year’s Armed Forces Bowl to Navy, Oklahoma went 6-2 in the SEC, and 4-0 against Illinois State, Michigan (good win), Kent State, and Temple. Alabama came up a little short in last year’s Reliaquest Bowl to Michigan, but since they’ve gone 7-2 in the SEC, and 3-1 against Florida State (awful loss), Louisiana-Monroe, Wisconsin, and Eastern Illinois. Texas wants you to credit their brutal schedule, but they went 6-2 in the SEC including a disgusting loss to Florida and a blowout to Georgia, and 3-1 against Ohio State (spoiler, they lost), San Jose State, UTEP, and Sam Houston. Then there’s Vanderbilt, who went 6-2 in the SEC, and then piled up 4 wins against powerhouses Charleston Southern, Virginia Tech, Georgia State, and Utah State. Among the seven “powerhouses” in the SEC three won remotely relevant non-conference games. This conference is good because the bottom half of the conference stinks and these seven teams beat the hell out of teams no better than the bottom half of any other conference. The only reason you think the SEC is good is because you always think the SEC is good. It’s not. At most, it should get four bids. Nothing this conference did this year suggests that it was really that much stronger than any other conference.

So no, I wouldn’t even consider Alabama, Texas, or Vanderbilt for the playoffs. The committee will probably put Alabama in though, because of ESPN and cash. My guess is they will put Notre Dame in over Miami, for basically similar reasons. Notre Dame should get in first out of the three, because they’re the best team. Their wins over USC (who beat Oklahoma’s best win, Michigan), Pitt (Miami’s best win after opening night), Boise State (Mountain West Champions), and Navy (the team right behind Tulane and North Texas in the AAC) are basically better than the entire “good” group of SEC teams non-conference wins, other than A&M’s win over themselves (And A&M is in, period). Alabama had two really bad losses in their three, and while you can try to excuse one of them as an extra game with Georgia, it’s a game the conference plays for no reason (they don’t have divisions anymore, and they should) just to make cash. Sorry, that’s the truth. Miami is only in this conversation because of an opening night win over Notre Dame, which to me is more of a negative for Notre Dame than a positive for Miami. We watched Miami all season, we can see what they are. They lost a mid-October game to a very mediocre Louisville team and an early November game to a similarly mediocre SMU team. It was a bit late in the season to be losing to mid teams like them. They couldn’t even make their conference’s hilarious title game, won by an 8-5 Duke team. They did win ten games though, like Alabama, and they beat Notre Dame (Like A&M) and Florida (who Texas somehow lost to). Miami got worse as the season went on, but I would still put them in as the tenth best team in the country, with the two group of five teams getting to play a game as the 11 and 12 teams.

If I actually could pick the full 12 team field, it would be Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Oregon, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Miami, BYU, and Alabama. Since we have to put the G5 teams in, I’d make it Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Oregon, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Miami, Tulane, and JMU. Since I’m being realistic and this is probably already bought and paid for, I’ll say Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Oregon, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Alabama, Notre Dame, Tulane, and JMU. This is no way to pick a champion, but I don’t think that’s what’s driving this conversation anyway.