Will Democrats Lose the California Governor’s Mansion?

January 28, 2026January 28, 2026 / Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

California contests a “jungle primary” for it’s offices- no Simba isn’t on the ballot- which means everyone is put on the ballot together, regardless of parties, and the top two get to run in the general election, regardless of parties. In 2016, Kamala Harris won her Senate seat in November by beating Democratic Congresswoman Loretta Sánchez, because they had finished as the top two in the primary. In 2024, Adam Schiff’s allies boosted former Dodger’s first baseman Steve Garvey, running ads calling him ultra-MAGA to insure he got all of the GOP votes, and other Democrats such as Katie Porter did not reach November, and it worked. Jungle primaries can lead to some wild results. It’s the law of the jungle.

Enter the 2026 California Governor’s race, the race to replace everyone’s favorite internet troll, Gavin Newsom (I am a fan, for the most part). It’s going badly. Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco leads with 17%. Former advisor to British Prime Minister David Cameron and Fox News commentator Steve Hilton is second with 14%. Yes, he too is Republican. They account for 31% combined in the latest poll. Former Congresswoman Katie Porter is at 11%, Congressman Eric Swallwell is at 11%, rich guy who bombed for President Tom Steyer is at 8%, former HHS Secretary and House Democratic Leadership member Xavier Becerra is at 5%, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is at 3%, State Superintendent of Instruction Tony Thurmond is at 2%. Add them all up and you have 40%, which is underwhelming, but still considerably ahead of the Republicans, but not one of these silly candidates would move on to the general election. Look, in a sane world I’d want Becerra, then maybe Thurmond (because I literally know nothing about him), then Villaraigosa (total mess, but smokes the others), but why are all of these people running? What a joke. If at least three of them don’t drop out, there’s a decent chance of two Republicans advancing, and a lock of one of them.

This field isn’t inspiring, to say the least. Losing this race in the primary would be humiliating. While I’m not a fan of the top three, the bottom three should start to exit the stage relatively soon. Imagine losing this Governor’s race during this Presidency? What a clown show.

Photo of the Day, 1/28

January 28, 2026January 20, 2026 / Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

The “Minnesota Fraud” Argument for ICE in Minneapolis, Debunked.

January 27, 2026 / Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Not so long ago, an alleged “reporter” named Nick Shirley started publishing a bunch of videos on YouTube alleging a massive amount of fraud being committed in the Minneapolis region, mostly by Somalians involving day care and other businesses receiving public funds. Shirley’s videos ignited a right-wing firestorm, with calls from conservatives all the way up to the White House for the federal government to intervene, and now. On the left, the response was more divided. Some pointed out that Shirley was going to supposed fraudulent daycares outside of business hours, and others yet pointing out that no daycare is going to let in some random young man demanding to “see the kids.” Some others said fine though, investigate it. The story took on a life of it’s own then.

Nearly right after that, Donald Trump called for an investigation and blamed Governor Tim Walz for everything. Then the Department of Homeland Security loudly announced *they* were going to Minneapolis, namely in the form of ICE. What happened next has been on your news since- multiple citizens shot dead, clashes in the street with protestors, and chaos on a scale that Americans generally won’t accept as normal. In short, things are out of hand, regardless of your political beliefs, or who you blame.

There’s a problem with this chronology though, in fact there are two. First, the investigation into the fraud ring in Minneapolis began in 2022, when the FBI raided numerous locations associated with the nonprofit “Feeding Our Future,” 47 defendants were charged in September of 2022, with 78 charged according to the best information I have to this date. Once this investigation opened, it blossomed into other areas, namely child care, emergency housing, and Medicaid. To this date, 98 people have been charged and over 60 convicted of crimes in this scandal, according to the House Oversight Committee GOP report, the majority of this happening before Donald Trump took office. The ring leader, Aimee Bock, was convicted in March of 2025. Many convictions started happening in 2024. In short, Shirley didn’t expose anything new. He went up there and stirred up an ongoing case that was largely a dormant story.

The second problem with this entire story though is that we seem to have a collective inability to understand who investigates crime. Domestic crime in the United States is investigated by the FBI and the Department of Justice. ICE and the Department of Homeland Security certainly have law enforcement powers, but they are largely over foreign nationals who don’t have a legal reason to be in the United States. A massive fraud ring, while quite serious, is an issue for the Department of Justice, not immigration authorities. They have different capabilities and do different things. DOJ has been investigating this case for close to four years, and has been charging and convicting the people who committed fraud. ICE has nothing to do with that. Their presence in Minneapolis is not aiding in that investigation. Yes, they have arrested 1,000 people in these raids in the city. Those people are guilty of immigration violations (and possibly other stuff, but that’s not ICE’s area). One can have a good faith argument over how we should enforce immigration law (I don’t find it legitimate to say we just shouldn’t). One should not be mixing that with the fraud investigation though. The only crossover here is that Somalians here in America are being targeted in both. That is more a product of who is involved in the fraud cases than some sort of conclusion we should be reaching.

What is going in Minneapolis for the past month is not really about a legitimately bad fraud ring. That’s been going on by the proper authorities. ICE is there to carry out Donald Trump’s goal of mass deportation. They want to find whatever percentage of the Somali community that is illegal, and deport them. I think it is also clear the goal was to cause mass protests and uprising, to create the conflict we are seeing in the streets. Trump would like to use this as a way to “get tough” on liberal cities like Minneapolis, to appease his base. In the end though, the reasoning is less important and less provable, than the reality- this has nothing to do with a fraud investigation. Donald Trump can explain why he did it. My point is why he didn’t- fraud. The fraud was being handled correctly by the dedicated agents of law enforcement, for which we’re all grateful. Whatever the hell this is now is completely the arbitrary decision of a mad man.

Yes, the Answer was to Vote for Kamala Harris

January 27, 2026January 26, 2026 / Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

As you watch the chaos in Minneapolis, where a completely out of control force is literally killing American citizens in the streets who are not threatening them, it’s worth asking- did we need to be here? Was there an alternative? Could just a few people have avoided this mess altogether?

The answer is yes.

Mitch McConnell and Senate Republicans could have put this all to rest after January 6th, 2021. Just a couple of weeks later, with Trump gone from Washington after his defeat, the GOP could have given the Democrats 17 votes to convict him in his Senate Impeachment trial. He could have been barred from ever holding office again. Sure, the hardline base would have hated it, but he would’ve faded out of power, with no chance to return. With the way Biden’s term went, and with Harris as the candidate, they may have won back the White House anyway. They’d have their trifecta right now, but with less chaos. They had a choice. But they’ve been broken since Barack Obama won in 2008. The establishment of the Republican Party threw open the party to radicals almost immediately after Obama’s inauguration. This was always their logical endpoint.

I think most of the criticism of the Democratic Party is shortsighted and stupid. We are criticizing them for doing what an American political party is supposed to do, respecting norms and trying to improve the country through the legislative process and winning elections. Nowhere in the American political system do we expect members of Congress to ride in like knights on horses to do battle with the opponent. With that said, I guess I would say the problem is that a lot of the Democrats aren’t willing to defend themselves from anyone. Seven House members voted to pass ICE funding this week. Eight Senate Democrats forfeited health insurance subsidies for millions of paying customers under the Affordable Care act to cave in and fund the government in December. They have not warmed up to the reality that giving Trump an inch means losing a mile. They should have learned that from their own far-left though. The decision to allow Bernie Sanders to run in a party he is not a member of in 2016 was a mistake. The decision by party leaders to capitulate to extremist ideas and rhetoric has only done more damage. We’ve watched “normie” Dems embrace every stupid idea from abandoning any border enforcement to “defund the police,” and watched Trump’s vote share increase from 2016 to 2020, and then again in 2024. Even Joe Biden, the ultimate moderate, tried to appease these people. It failed. It cost him his Presidency.

And for what? Let’s be honest, the left may or may not have actually had enough more votes to tip the balance of the 2024 Election to Kamala Harris, but given how very close it actually was, they probably did. The number of votes for Jill Stein, or write-ins for fictional candidates, and the crossovers in places like Dearborn. You can’t lump all of the millions who didn’t vote that did in 2020 into one pot, but you know at least some of them were people who just couldn’t be bothered. Whether it was Gaza, or people mad that she “embraced” transgender folks, or people that just “didn’t like her,” they stayed home, voted for him, or voted protest, they made the difference. She was so close. Yet she either was “too left,” or “was a genociding cop.” They didn’t back her. She lost.

Here’s the thing though- what you’re watching in Minneapolis now, that’s the consequence of it. You fucked around, now you are finding out. Trump told us he was going to do this, his backers wrote Project 2025 as a blueprint for this Presidency. Anyone who believed him that he didn’t know what it was is a willful idiot. The only person who had a chance to beat him on the ballot was Kamala Harris. There was no third outcome. Now Jared Kushner is going to turn Gaza into luxury condos. Now ICE is deporting young children. Kyiv is suffering a brutal Winter as Russia commits war crimes against their people. Medicaid is being decimated. The Department of Education is closed. Trump’s name is on the Kennedy Center. She only really needed a percentage point or so in four out of seven swing states, and none of this would be going on. Was uncommitted worth it? No. Anyone saying otherwise just refuses to admit their truth.

NFL Power Rankings, 1/27/26

January 27, 2026January 26, 2026 / Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

… and then there were two.

I have to admit, I definitely didn’t see this Super Bowl coming. And you know what? Neither did you. In my first rankings, the Seahawks were 18th. The Patriots were 27th. Both were 0-1 at the time. You would have had to be insane to think they’d be here. But they are. And now they’ll play for the championship. Everyone else is finished, and for them, this will be the final rankings of the year.

And so for the rest, the what if’s. Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Buffalo, San Francisco- they all must be feeling like they missed an opportunity. They kind of did. Of course, this begs the question- was this a change season? New England, Seattle, Denver, Chicago- these aren’t old teams. They’re brand new to the stage. Do the teams who have been contending (definitely include Kansas City) have the rosters and front offices to build back up and compete next year? Some definitely will. Some won’t. For someone, we’ll figure out who next Fall, the window just closed. Lots to think about there.

I’ll do my Super Bowl pick closer to the game. For now, the final rankings.

1/19 rankings. 1/13 rankings. 1/6 rankings. 12/30 rankings. 12/24 rankings. 12/16 rankings. 12/9 rankings. 12/3 rankings. 11/26 rankings. 11/18 rankings. 11/11 rankings. 11/4 rankings. 10/28 rankings. 10/21 rankings. 10/15 rankings. 10/8 rankings. 9/30 rankings. 9/24 rankings. 9/16 rankings. 9/9 rankings.