Please Don’t Mess Up, New York.

/ Rich Wilkins / 3 Comments

Today’s the New York City Mayoral Primary Election, and I’m not extremely excited. On the one hand, Andrew Cuomo winning is the *good outcome*, which in light of recent years tells you a lot. Cuomo’s fall, from a nearly unbeatable and popular governor that was maligned by the far-left is well documented. I would probably prefer to be telling you today that City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams has a chance, but she doesn’t. Either Cuomo wins today, or a complete lunatic nutbag wins.

That’s probably why we’re in this place- a lot of people really can’t stomach voting for Cuomo, even on the second ballot. Is that fair? Probably not. While one could certainly make him shoulder some blame for his handling of nursing homes during COVID, the sexual misconduct accusations that actually drove him from office turned out to be a dud- not a single prosecutor in the entire state took the Attorney General’s report and turned it into anything near a successful prosecution. I don’t think it matters though. Cuomo is just kind of viewed as a mean, loathsome politician. I think a lot of people have figured out that he’s just not that progressive, and he doesn’t do the necessary virtue signaling to make them feel good.

Here is where the alternative should matter, but doesn’t really seem to. New York State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani has all but caught Cuomo, thanks to New York’s stupid “rank choice system,” where being someone’s second, third, fourth, or even fifth choice matters. Most voters who don’t back Cuomo at first, just don’t. They’re seemingly not bothered by Mamdani though. Mamdani calls himself a Democratic Socialist, much like AOC, but he’s honestly mostly just a big government liberal. Mamdani has built up a viral support through his proposals and gained thirty points over the past few months. He has the normal support of progressives like AOC and Bernie that the electorate nationally and statewide in New York has repeatedly rejected, and says the normal nonsense about being a socialist. He’s going to freeze rents. He’s going to make buses free in the city. He’s going to force landlords to keep their buildings at 78 degrees, year round. He’s going to make all the city public schools buildings climate friendly. He’s going to crack down on landlords. Basically everything but a unicorn, free of charge. He’s just going to tax the rich to pay for it all. As long as Albany allows him to, which is probably a long shot since the city can’t do a lot of the things he’s proposing currently. But he’ll do it. Trust him.

Look, the difference between being AOC and winning one of these ridiculous, sleepy summer primaries and being Alessandra Biaggi and losing them is often just how many people give a shit and bother to come. If Mamdani was just the garden variety of leftist and running a race to beat Cuomo, honestly who really cares, right? That would normally be my attitude too. If New York wants to elect a 33 year old that’s promising them lots of things he can’t deliver, have at it. The problem is that these optics aren’t staying in the cities. Whether it’s crime in Chicago, homeless people in Los Angeles, or whatever the hell is happening here, Republicans are running against this. Mamdani takes it to the next level though. That next level, the elephant in the room if you will, is his views on Israel. A race for local office is at least partially being energized by a candidate’s views on a foreign country. Any decent politician would avoid that. It’s basically become the backbone of this race. That may not hurt him in this primary. Bloodlust is a political motivator in the era of Trump. This is a New York Primary, a city which did elect us AOC. And it’s hot outside today. Only the most motivated will vote. Maybe this works in this race. That doesn’t mean much good will come of it.

Look, I don’t know this guy personally. Is he an antisemite? I have no idea, but he certainly says a lot of things I would not say about Israel. If you think the Netanyahu government is an atrocious, steaming, stinking turd, I really don’t have a problem with that position, but I find the discussion of whether Israel should exist or not to be fully offensive. I actually doubt this guy would be “welcoming the Muslim Brotherhood to Gracie Mansion,” and other over-the-top nonsense some people are saying. My guess is he’s another really awful big-city Mayor, like a Brandon Johnson type, who does such a dogshit job that basically everyone agrees he’s bad. He’s going to fail to deliver on almost everything he promises, and two years from now he’ll still be ranting and raving about a foreign policy issue he’s both ignorant on and powerless on. Is there a chance he’ll be better? Sure. It’s highly unlikely though, because he’s promising things he can’t delivering on, and talking about issues he holds no authority on. Electing this guy is placing a big bet on what’s likely a small payout.

New Yorkers, I get it, you’re tired of Andrew Cuomo. He’s not nice. He doesn’t try to make you feel good. If he loses tonight though, you will have created the next right-wing boogie man for Donald Trump to point out to suburban swing voters everywhere. You’re loading another gun for J.D. Vance 2028. Do the right thing. Don’t rank Mamdani.

Riley Gaines- A Loser By All Standards

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Sports are hard. Losing is harder. Losing is a part of sports. I try to operate u see the standard that losing alone doesn’t make you a loser. I ran track, cross-country and wrestled in high school, I played baseball and soccer up through seventh grade. I lost a lot. I probably won a little more than I lost, overall, but god did I lose a lot. Losing in individual sports is hard because you’re out there alone to lose by yourself. You can’t blame anybody else. I’d like to think it builds character and teaches lessons. I also tend to think there are less painful ways to do that.

Riley Gaines was a swimmer, a sport that can be as lonely as wrestling or running. You’re in the pool by yourself. Riley Gaines was very good at swimming, and she won a lot. The television screen says she was an SEC champion, and well, that’s pretty great. She finished tied for fifth at the NCAA Championships in the 200 yard freestyle, quite an achievement. Gaines was certainly better at swimming than 99.9% of people are at anything in their lives. If she said that, well, there would be no denying that.

You see though, Riley feels aggrieved. She finished tied with Lia Thomas, a transgender female who swam for the University of Pennsylvania. The NCAA gave the 5th place trophy there on location to Thomas and mailed Gaines her trophy. She still finished fifth, and she eventually got the trophy, I assume. But you know, her feelings. So she start going around and complaining about Lia Thomas being able to compete. Riley doesn’t think trans women should be in women’s sports. The point of my post isn’t to argue and fight about that point, as while I do have concerns about this in combat sports and from a pure fairness angle, I have literally zero expertise on the matter and won’t pretend to know what’s fair and right here. I do know this though- if Lia Thomas wasn’t in the race, if she didn’t even exist, Riley Gaines still would not have won the race. In fact, as I assume it, she would have finished fifth by herself. She would have received the same fifth place trophy, just she would have received it that day. She still would have lost to four other girls. She’s just decided to make it her cause to make sure there’s never anywhere for trans women to compete.

Simone Biles backed off of her attacks on Riley Gaines over the weekend, but I won’t go so easy. Riley Gaines lost a race, quit her sport forever, and cashed in on attacking transgender women. If this were her only cause she had taken up since, I might take it for some sincere issue that mattered to her. It hasn’t been her only issue though. She’s become a pro-life spokeswoman as well, and a surrogate for Trump’s 2024 campaign. Riley Gaines is basically a right-wing hack who happened to finish fifth place in a race once, and now runs around like she finished second to a transgender woman who robbed her of her hard work. She would have finished fifth in that race, regardless. I wonder how many people she has made feel small and unseen by using her considerable talents for this. She may be right, she may be wrong on the merits of her message about the issue. She definitely used this cause to cash in and gain fame and fortune that she probably wouldn’t have gained in the pool.

I hope she’s happy.

Weird New York Results, Explained?

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

It has become a near sacred belief for some folks on the internet that they don’t believe the 2024 Election results. I get it, they’re a nightmare. The idea that nearly 50% of the public would re-elect Trump after everything seems impossible. When you understand how close virtually every Presidential Election other than 2008 has been this century though, it starts to make at least some sense though.

Enter New York, specifically Rockland County where I worked on a County Executive race, more than a decade back. It is a politically peculiar place. It’s a very purple county in suburban New York City. It’s got the highest percentage of Jewish people of any county in America. It’s incredibly diverse in general. It’s got super, super wealthy and very working class people living together. It’s a part of the swing NY-17 Congressional District, one of the most competitive in America. It’s really, really expensive to run a campaign there. And they have a rather significant Hasidic Jewish population, now sitting over 50,000 in the district. They tend to vote together, as a block, getting them the name “the block” amongst politicos. Once the leaders decide who they are backing, and to what level, everyone does their job. It doesn’t fit neat partisan or ideological politics, and so it confuses many political class people who are new to the area. This often puts them at odds with other groups in the county, who don’t particularly love their voting power. The East Ramapo School District there has been controversial, but that’s nothing new.

I’m not shocked that a friend sent me an article about a challenge to their 2024 Election results, but I was immediately skeptical. Rockland is the king of weird election results. What’s more, Vice-President Harris underperformed President Biden and Secretary Clinton in general in New York. Senator Gillibrand was facing weak, token opposition at best, and some of the national hot button issues were less so problems for her. When I first looked at Smart Elections’ Blue Sky post comparing Harris and Gillibrand’s numbers in several voting districts, I immediately assumed they are simply “Block” voting districts, where the Hasidic population chose Donald Trump, but still wanted to vote for the incumbent Democratic Senator. There are absolutely districts in Rockland County where Trump probably won almost every vote, and so did Gillibrand. There are a few problems with my explanation though. First, just having the district number isn’t enough for me today to be sure those were “block” districts. Second, the lawsuit does point to other things, like statistical analysis, that suggests a problem. So it’s possible I’m wrong here.

My guess is that Harris generally underperformed fairly popular incumbents across the state, and Rockland was no different. My second thought is that the lopsided districts will be “block” areas. If anyone knowledgeable on the subject comes across this post, please feel free to keep me updated on this.

A Republican Carpetbagger Wants to be my Congressman

/ Rich Wilkins / 17 Comments

If you’re from the Lehigh Valley and don’t recognize the guy above, it’s ok, you’re not alone. His name is Ryan Crosswell and until we had a Congressional seat he felt he could win by switching parties, he probably had no idea where we were. Unless you’ve been at party events, you haven’t met him or heard the story he wants you to learn.

What is Ryan’s story? Well he grew up in Pottsville of the 9th District of Pennsylvania, not in the 7th where he’s running. He became a Marine, went off to school, graduated law school, and went to work in both the military and for the Department of Justice. He registered to vote as a Republican in North Carolina, Louisiana, and Washington, DC, from what I’ve been told. He has never actually lived in Northampton, Lehigh, Carbon, or Monroe Counties, the counties in the district. Ryan has voted as a Republican through the Tea Party, first Trump Administration, January 6th, Republican attacks on President Biden through his term, and up until this past December. The timeline that was provided to me:

December 2011: Ryan Crosswell registers as a Republican In North Carolina.

July 2014: Ryan Crosswell registers as a Republican in Louisiana.

July 19, 2016: Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination for president. Ryan Crosswell voted as a Republican. 

November 8, 2016: Donald Trump is elected President of the United States. Ryan Crosswell voted as a Republican. 

January 2017: Ryan Crosswell begins working for the Trump administration. 

August 15, 2017: Trump defends white-nationalists: ‘Some very fine people on both sides’ . . . . Ryan Crosswell continues to vote as a Republican. 

January 20, 2018: Ryan Crosswell begins his second year working for the Trump administration. 

January 20, 2019: Ryan Crosswell begins his third year working for the Trump administration. 

January 20, 2020: Ryan Crosswell begins his fourth year working for the Trump administration. 

April 23, 2020: Donald Trump suggests injecting bleach will cure COVID. Ryan Crosswell continues to vote as a Republican.

January 6 . . . .Ryan Crosswell continues to vote as a Republican.. 

June 24th, 2022: Roe v. Wade is overturned. Trump and the Republican party celebrate the decision. Ryan Crosswell continues to vote as a Republican.

November 15, 2022: Donald Trump launches his third Republican campaign. Ryan Crosswell continues to vote as a Republican.

December 5, 2023: Donald Trump vows to be a dictator on day one. Ryan Crosswell is still voting as a Republican.

May 18, 2024: Donald Trump begins floating the idea of seeking a third term, which is unconstitutional. Ryan Crosswell was still a Republican.

July 19,2024: Donald Trump promises mass deportations if elected. Ryan Crosswell continues to vote as a Republican.

July 15, 2024: Donald Trump secures the Republican nomination for a third time. Ryan Crosswell voted as a Republican. 

August 26, 2024: Donald Trump meets with Nayib Bukele to begin planning the  illegal detention of American residents in El Salvador. Ryan Crosswell continues to vote as a Republican. 

October 22, 2024: Donald Trump issues threat to prosecute political rivals. Ryan Crosswell voted as a Republican.

November 6, 2024: Donald Trump wins the 2024 general election.  Ryan Crosswell voted as a Republican. 
December 27, 2024: Ryan Crosswell decides to run for Congress. Changes Washington, D.C., voter registration to Democratic.

To hear the story as it’s told to me, this guy voted as a Republican in the 2012 Election, then again in the 2016 Election, took a job in the Trump Administration in 2017, re-registered as a Republican and voted in the 2020 Election, and was a Republican through the 2024 Election. His story is of course that he registered as a Republican many years ago, in the Bush 43 Administration years, when that President was lying about a war that cost tens of thousands of Americans their lives, trying to open up secret prisons for torture operations not allowed to be carried out in America by law, was firing U.S. Attorney’s without cause, conducting massive unapproved warrantless wiretapping, passing the Patriot Act, and otherwise trampling on the rule of law. His defenders have suggested that Crosswell was not an ideological or active Republican. They say he was non-partisan because of his government work, and really just left his registration alone. He re-registered at least three times as a Republican that I see, and was registered as a Republican for all three of Trump’s runs. He went to work for Trump’s DOJ in 2017. It’s been also provided to me now that while he was mailed a ballot in the crucially important 2024 Presidential Election, he didn’t return it. I definitely have questions. He definitely does not seem to have held any meaningful Democratic views through the Iraq War, Obama years, first Trump Administration, the ending of Roe v. Wade, or at any other pivotal point.

Now, I’m not against converts, particularly given how terrible this Trump Administration seems to be doing. Let’s just say though that the more you tolerated, the more skeptical I am. When Trump mocked the disabled reporter, when he called Mexicans drug dealers and rapists, when the Access Hollywood tape dropped, when he did the first Muslim ban, when he appointed ideological extremists to the Supreme Court, when his supporters stormed the Capitol on January 6th, when Roe v. Wade was overturned, when Trump said he wanted to be a dictator, when he accused immigrants of eating cats and dogs, all of that did not cause Crosswell to denounce his Republican registration. What we are asked to believe is that dropping the Eric Adams indictment was the last straw that made Croswell switch parties. Should we believe it? He entered this race on June 9th. He says he left DOJ on February 17th. He bought his websites for his run in December. We know all the things that didn’t make Ryan Crosswell leave the Republican Party. It certainly appears you can add dropping the Eric Adams prosecution to that list. He had made his decision to switch parties and move to a district he never lived in before the Adams’ prosecution was even able to be dropped.

I will say, it’s honorable that Crosswell defended his country, and he has an impressive academic history that suggests he’s a smart person, but our Republican Congressman Ryan Mackenzie can claim those things too, even after he recently voted to take health care from over ten million Americans. Crosswell could have moved home to the 9th Congressional District and ran in the open Republican Primary for 2026, but for whatever reasons he has decided to come run here in the most purple district in the country. The House Republicans will spend millions calling him a hypocrite, a liar, and citing his own contradictory history to make Republicans and Democrats alike hate him. There’s a long campaign to run, and maybe he’ll prove me to be wrong here, but he seems like a tremendous risk for Democrats to take.

Karine is Mostly Right

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

I read today’s Politico piece about Biden Administration alums being mad about Karine Jean-Pierre’s upcoming book. I’ll be honest, I went into the piece expecting to agree with them. I didn’t think she was a very effective Press Secretary. I did think she was self-promoting. I had my biases. Then I read the article. Karine Jean-Pierre is right. From what it sounds like her book is going to say, she’s also writing something that absolutely, positively, without one shadow of a doubt had to be written.

Joe Biden’s White House never behaved as Joe Biden’s White House. It never did feel loyal and authentic to Joe’s brand. I would have guessed that Jean-Pierre was a part of that. It definitely appears not to be so. Her discontent with the decision of party elites to dump Joe Biden in last summer’s “switcheroo” was probably shared by a larger number of people than the margin of defeat for Vice-President Harris. Essentially a group of donors and a few has-been high level Democratic elected officials decided to nuke his re-election over their concerns and nominate someone who could not possibly win (This would have been true with virtually any Democrat, for the record.). What I think is more nauseating for some of us is the continual patting on the back that Beltway Democrats still give themselves for doing this. It failed miserably. There is nothing to be proud of. I was fine voting for Vice-President Harris myself, but I said on the day he dropped that she had no chance. Any non-brain dead Democrat knew the election was over when Biden dropped out.

I rarely read these books, so don’t hold your breath that I’ll read it. I will say this though- I’m glad someone is doing the pushback. While anonymous aides and donors further their narrative through corporate tools like Jake Tapper, the truth is very clear and obviously in front of us- the Democratic Party nuked their only chance to win because many of the people tasked with keeping the party in power never really wanted him anyway. Would Biden have won? His poll numbers were really not all that much changed after his June debate. We’ll never know. The disloyalty to him made it virtually impossible anyone was going to win though. Maybe it was mishandled from the decision to run again, maybe we blew it in June, but who cares? The incompetence at the high levels was laid bare before us, and I’m glad someone said it.

“Papa Francisco’s” Legacy

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

It takes a lot to get me excited to see another person, especially if they are famous. I must admit that when I took the above picture of Pope Francis during his 2015 visit to America, I was in awe of him. For the most part, even famous and powerful people are just people. Sure, he’s the only Pope I’ve ever seen in person, but that’s not what excited me. What excited me was that in a world full of leaders who inevitably disappoint you, he actually tried very hard not to. I’ll always appreciate that.

Most of the eulogies we’ll hear about him will either focus on the politics of his papacy or on the doctrinal proclamations he made, and I think they both miss the point. As a matter of policy, Pope Francis did not change the church’s position on gay marriage, abortion, female priests, the death penalty, charity for the poor, or accepting refugees. On all of those issues he was essentially in the same place as Benedict or John Paul. Even so, he completely reset the tone. He said “who am I to judge,” echoing Jesus saying “let he who is without sin cast the first stone.” He went into the streets with the poor, the sick, and the homeless. He walked the walk on acts of charity. He used his great power to shine light on the people that needed light. His presence, as an Argentinian Pope, opened the doors of power to the global South. He met with leaders across faith lines and held dialogue. Pope Francis sent a clear message- the doors to his church and his faith were open to everyone, even the sinners.

So much of his Papacy was about healing wounds and divides in the church, and the biggest one he faced was the child sex abuse scandal that scarred the faith for decades. He was the first Pope in a while who wasn’t clearly tarnished by it, and I would have liked him to have gone further in his condemnation of it. I think that has to be said. I think he struggled with how far to go at times. He did eventually defrock bishops and cardinals for their failings though, and offered the first truly sincere apology of the church for their failings. It was, more so than not, a step in the right direction. I would say the same for his acknowledgement of other atrocities, such as those committed against Native Americans, as well. You can’t heal all past wrongs on this Earth, but honesty is at least a start.

Pope Francis was a mainstream Catholic leader, however he was a Pope of the people. He wanted to be inclusive in his faith and help people who needed helping. He achieved his mission. Now we can only hope a new leader emerges that is committed to taking the cause further. May God have mercy on his soul.

Ask AI- Where are the Aliens Hidden?

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

From Twitter/X’s Grok:

Allegations about the U.S. government hiding extraterrestrial beings or technology often point to specific locations, primarily based on whistleblower claims, declassified documents, and popular culture. These claims lack definitive evidence and are frequently dismissed by official sources, but they persist in public discourse. Below are the key sites commonly mentioned, based on available information, including recent web sources and posts on X:

  • Area 51, Nevada:
  • Claims: This secretive military base, part of the Nevada Test and Training Range, is the most famous alleged storage site for alien spacecraft and bodies. Whistleblower David Grusch, a former Air Force intelligence officer, testified in 2023 that the U.S. government has recovered “non-human” biologics and spacecraft, with Area 51 often cited in related conspiracy theories. X posts, like one from @uBF2fV1cVQxRjQo in 2023, claim “dozens of alien bodies” are stored there, though these reference unverified sources, including a video flagged as containing fake or unrelated content. Another post from @1996ID4 in 2024 claims Area 51 has held an alien spacecraft and three preserved bodies for nearly 40 years, calling it a “win for big tin foil” but offering no evidence.
  • Official Response: The Pentagon and the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) deny these claims, stating in a 2024 report that no credible evidence supports extraterrestrial activity or storage at Area 51. The base is known for testing classified aircraft, like the U-2 and F-117 Nighthawk, which may explain some UFO sightings.
  • Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio:
  • Claims: This base, particularly its Hangar 18, is frequently mentioned as a storage site for alien craft and biologics, especially tied to the 1947 Roswell Incident. A 2023 X post by @UAPJames cites rumors among staff about “bodies stored in freezers” at Wright-Patterson, referencing journalists George Knapp and Chris Sharp. Another post by @planethunter56 in 2024 claims the base stores “recovered craft/NHI biologics,” though without substantiation.
  • Official Response: The Air Force’s 1995 “Roswell Report” concluded that materials recovered near Roswell were from a classified balloon project, not extraterrestrial. AARO’s 2024 report found no evidence of alien storage at Wright-Patterson, attributing claims to misinterpretations of classified programs.
  • Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada:
  • Claims: Less commonly cited, Nellis is mentioned in some conspiracy circles as a “spaceport” for non-human intelligence (NHI) ships or a base for extraterrestrial entities. An X post by @planethunter56 in 2024 alleges it serves as a “Tall White home” and spaceport, but this lacks any verifiable backing and leans heavily on speculative lore.
  • Official Response: No official reports or investigations link Nellis to extraterrestrial activity. It’s a major testing and training site, often associated with Area 51 due to proximity, which may fuel speculation.
  • Porton Down, United Kingdom:
  • Claims: Though not a U.S. site, recent X posts from April 2025 (e.g., @TruthSeeker84x3, @Lizzie_d30, @Sheeraz037) highlight claims that this British defense laboratory stores alien bodies. These stem from a news article, but the posts express skepticism about government denials, with @TruthSeeker84x3 questioning official trustworthiness.
  • Official Response: Porton Down’s official statements deny such claims, focusing on its role in chemical and biological defense research. No credible evidence supports extraterrestrial storage there.
  • Other Alleged Sites:
  • Dulce Base, New Mexico: An unverified underground facility rumored to house aliens, mentioned in fringe theories but absent from credible reports or official investigations.
  • Kona Blue Program: A proposed Department of Homeland Security initiative, referenced in AARO’s 2024 report, was allegedly meant to cover up “nonhuman biologics” but was rejected for lacking merit. It’s not tied to a specific location but fuels speculation about secret programs.
  • Overseas Facilities: The @planethunter56 X post vaguely mentions an overseas building used for “laudatory purposes,” but this is too ambiguous to verify.

Critical Analysis:

  • Lack of Evidence: Despite high-profile claims, like Grusch’s 2023 testimony about a “multi-decade” UAP retrieval program, no physical evidence—photos, documents, or artifacts—has been publicly verified. AARO’s 2024 report, based on 80 years of investigations, found “no empirical evidence” for extraterrestrial technology or bodies, suggesting many claims stem from misidentified classified projects (e.g., high-altitude balloons, stealth aircraft). Grusch himself admitted his knowledge is second-hand, based on interviews with 40 witnesses, and he couldn’t share specifics in public.
  • Misinterpretation: AARO notes that witnesses often mistook sensitive U.S. programs for alien activity, citing examples like the F-117 Nighthawk, which one interviewee claimed was an extraterrestrial craft.
  • Cultural Influence: Public belief, reinforced by media like The X-Files and viral X posts, amplifies these narratives. A 2019 Gallup poll found 68% of Americans believe the government hides UFO information, showing widespread skepticism.
  • Secrecy Concerns: Whistleblowers like Grusch and Luis Elizondo (2024 testimony) argue excessive secrecy hides UAP programs, potentially misallocating taxpayer funds. However, their claims remain unverified, and AARO denies any cover-up.

Sentiment on X:
Recent X posts reflect distrust in government denials, with users like @TruthSeeker84x3 questioning official narratives about Porton Down. Others, like @1996ID4, treat Area 51 claims as a lighthearted victory for conspiracists, while @planethunter56’s detailed list of sites leans into speculative enthusiasm without evidence. These posts highlight ongoing public fascination but lack credible substantiation.

Conclusion:
The most frequently alleged U.S. sites for storing aliens or extraterrestrial technology are Area 51 and Wright-Patterson AFB, with Nellis AFB and vague overseas locations mentioned less often. Internationally, Porton Down has surfaced in recent claims. However, no concrete evidence supports these allegations, and official reports consistently attribute sightings to terrestrial technology or misidentification. The persistence of these claims reflects distrust in government transparency, amplified by whistleblower testimony and social media, but without verifiable proof, they remain speculative. If you want me to focus on a specific site or dive into a particular claim, let me know!

The JFK File Nothingburger

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

The JFK Files are many pages. So I asked Twitter/X’s AI, Grok to answer an easy question- are there any bombshells? Here’s what I got:

The newly declassified JFK assassination files, released in March 2025, contain over 77,000 pages of documents. While they provide details on CIA operations during the early 1960s, particularly in Cuba and Mexico, no major revelations directly challenge the Warren Commission’s conclusion that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone in assassinating President John F. Kennedy on November 22, 1963. Here are the key points:

  • CIA Surveillance and Operations: The files reveal specifics about CIA surveillance of Oswald in Mexico City, where he visited Soviet and Cuban embassies months before the assassination. They also detail covert operations, like tapping phones in Mexico City and infiltrating Fidel Castro’s government with agents, including 14 Cuban diplomats on the CIA payroll. One document mentions a CIA plot to contaminate Cuban sugar shipments to the Soviet Union with a chemical to ruin its taste.
  • JFK’s Mistrust of CIA: Unredacted memos, such as one from Arthur Schlesinger Jr., highlight Kennedy’s concerns about CIA influence, noting that nearly half of U.S. embassy political officers in 1961 were CIA agents. This underscores tensions between JFK and the agency, though it’s not directly tied to the assassination.
  • No Smoking Gun: Experts like Jefferson Morley call the release significant for transparency, shedding light on CIA propaganda and Castro assassination plots. However, historians like Fredrik Logevall and Timothy Naftali say nothing upends the lone gunman theory. The files don’t include some expected records, like 2,400 newly discovered FBI documents or certain IRS files.
  • Privacy Issues: The release controversially included personal information, like Social Security numbers of House Select Committee on Assassinations staff, raising concerns about sloppy handling.
  • Conspiracy Theories Persist: Despite no earth-shattering evidence, the files fuel speculation due to their volume and details about CIA activities. Posts on X claim “bombshells,” but these often exaggerate existing theories, like unverified CIA conspiracies, without concrete proof.

The documents enrich Cold War history but don’t resolve the assassination’s core questions. If you’re chasing a specific angle—like a particular document or theory—let me know, and I can dig deeper

Happy Opening Day

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Happy Opening Day of the 2025 Major League Baseball season. As we begin the six month slog that is baseball’s regular season, I will remind everyone of the cardinal rule of baseball- the law of averages will always win. Bad teams will win games, bad players will have good moments, and good teams will have losing streaks, but in the end the deepest and best rosters will survive the season. We tend to try and not freak out about one NFL game going badly, well that equals approximately 9.53 MLB games. So at least wait 19 games in until you freak out.

My Phillies won 95 games and the NL East last year, but losing to the god damned Mets in the playoffs and watching the Dodgers (who we went 6-1 against) win the World Series made last year one of the most agitating seasons ever. There seems to be two schools of thought on the team. One is that they’re a year older, haven’t won yet, and are in the hardest division in baseball, so they should step back. The other is that they have the best rotation in baseball, have seen their win total go up in each of the last six full seasons, and have the most post-season wins in the league the last three years, so they should finally get lucky. It remains to be seen if they can stop chasing pitches out of the strike zone, but they still should be among the elites in a National League that is better than the American League. For my money, the NL East will be the most fun to watch division in the league, with three elite teams, a young and talented fourth place team, and Miami to go visit if you want to see your team win some games and lay on a beach.

A lot of national writers seem to want to pick Atlanta to win the NL East, mostly because at some point soon they will add Ronald Acuna and Spencer Strider back to the roster healthy, and with all due respect to Juan Soto, no team in the division will add that kind of talent this year. That’s assuming both come back at consistent 100% form, which eventually they will, but shouldn’t be assumed immediately. This team did lose a consistent high end starter though in Max Fried. The Braves feel like a playoff lock to me, even so.

The Mets are hard to read. By keeping Pete Alonso after signing Soto, this is a really scary lineup. Francisco Lindor was MVP level last season and they have some young talent ready to help this group. Can they pitch though? They already have some injuries, and this is a rotation that lacks a high end #1 (I’d hear an argument on a healthy Senga, but the Mets aren’t exactly raising expectations on him). What they lack in ace material, the Mets do make up for with starting depth. I don’t like writing this, but I do think they will hang in there enough to win a lot of games.

The shame for these three teams is that there’s really only four playoff spots available to them, so the room for error is minimal (you can’t win the other two divisions, so only 4 of 6 spots are possible). As I look around the rest of the NL, I see six other teams with some degree of a chance. Out west the Dodgers are a lock, Arizona and San Diego are very good, and San Francisco is worth watching. In the central, the Brewers and Cubs are the only two teams with the depth and talent to win. So by my math, nine teams will battle for six spots.

Over in the AL, it’s a bit of a mess. The Yankees pitching is kind of a mess, the Astros no longer terrify everyone, Cleveland tends to be good every other year, Baltimore seems to have stepped back, Kansas City and Detroit are hard to project, Texas looks good, Boston is back, Seattle feels unpredictable, nobody knows if Minnesota can recover from last year’s collapse, and everyone but me seems to be hating on Toronto (with good reason). That really only leaves four bad teams, some being historically bad. There’s no obvious runaway favorite though.

So, with all of that said, here’s some regular season predictions:

  • AL East- This feels to me like there’s no right answer. I like Boston to edge out the Yankees, mostly because I like their health and pitching better, right now. If the Yankees health improves, a month ago I thought they’d run away with it. This really should be Baltimore’s time, but they will need to pick up a pitcher to have a shot. I still like Toronto’s roster, but the uncertainty around their future seems to be a distraction. Tampa plays in minor league park, and maybe that’s an omen for the season.
  • AL Central- Other than the White Sox finishing last, anything could happen here. On paper, Cleveland could be better than last year, with Bieber and Means getting healthy and joining an already good rotation. I feel safer that Kansas City will repeat last year than Detroit, but both have a lot of talent. Unfortunately I don’t see the Twins pulling it together, though I guess the talent is there. I’ll take Cleveland here, because I don’t think last year was a fluke.
  • AL West- I feel pretty strongly that the Rangers bounce back this year. I see the Astros stepping back to at least second, if not third. The Angels are literally hoping Trout is healthy enough to trade, so figure they get last. The A’s play in a minor league park, which is again, an omen. Seattle is the team I can’t figure out. I’ll put them in second for now.
  • AL Playoff Prediction- Cleveland (AL Central), Texas (AL West), Boston (AL East), New York (Wild Card 1), Kansas City (Wild Card 2), and Baltimore (Wild Card 3).
  • NL West- There’s just too much talent and depth in Los Angeles for the Dodgers to not win. I like Arizona’s off-season more than San Diego’s, so put them in that order. I liked San Francisco’s off-season, but they’re not there yet. It will be fun to see how many games behind Colorado ends up.
  • NL Central- Pittsburgh and Cincinnati often behave like poverty franchises, but it’s impressive to watch St. Louis try to pull it off. I’m going Cincinnati three, Pittsburgh four, and St. Louis five. That leaves two teams to fight for the division. Chicago is here based solely on being the only real big market. Milwaukee has actually run their team pretty well. Seriously, Chicago traded for one year of Kyle Tucker, then traded Cody Bellinger in a salary dump, then DFA’ed the guy they got for him today. Wtf? They have talent, but seemingly no idea how to use it. Milwaukee may have taken a step back, but they still seem to be the smart ones here. Eventually someone else has to win though, right? Ok, I’ll take Chicago.
  • NL East- Ok, the easy parts first here- Washington fourth, Miami dead last. Then it gets fun. My concern with the Mets is pitching. I worry about the Phillies line-up after Harper and Schwarber. Atlanta has to stay healthy and maintain last year’s pitching, which feels unlikely. I’ll take my Phillies, because I expect big years from Harper and Turner, to go along with great pitching. I think the Mets out slug the Braves for second, mostly because I think Acuna will need to get his feet under him for a while after his latest ACL injury.
  • NL Playoff Prediction- Los Angeles (NL West), Philadelphia (NL East), Chicago (NL Central), New York (Wild Card 1), Arizona (Wild Card 2), and Atlanta (Wild Card 3).

We’ll come back to who wins in October in a moment. Shohei Ohtani will win the NL MVP, because it’s preordained, but he won’t be the best offensive player or pitcher. I expect Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Kyle Tucker, Francisco Lindor, and Freddie Freeman to all have MVP level seasons. I’m taking Trea Turner to win the batting title and Pete Alonso to win the RBI title. Ohtani will win the homer title and win the award. Corey Seager will edge out Jose Ramirez on the AL side. Aaron Judge will be good, but I’m guessing he misses some time. I still think Judge edges out Vlad Jr. for the home run title, Jose Ramirez edges out Vlad in RBI’s, and Bobby Witt Jr. edges him out in batting again.

Paul Skenes seems to be everyone’s Cy Young pick, and he’s nasty, but the field will be stiff. Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, and Spencer Strider will be in the mix. Never pick the favorite, so I’m taking my guy, Wheeler. As an aside, I’m predicting Ohtani throws about 100 innings. In the AL, it’s hard to argue with Tarik Skubal. Garrett Crochet and Jacob de Grom will make a fight of it. I’m going to get risky and pick Jacob de Grom.

I’ll take Cam Smith to win AL Rookie of the Year and Bruce Bochy to be AL Manager of the Year. Roki Sasaki will win the NL Rookie of the Year award, while Rob Thomson will win the NL Manager of the Year award.

Ok, so now the playoffs. I’m taking Boston over Baltimore and New York over Kansas City in the AL Wild Card round. I’ll take Texas over Boston in the AL divisional round, while Cleveland beats New York. I have Cleveland edging Texas for the AL Pennant.

In the NL, I’m taking Atlanta over Chicago in the NL Wild Card round, while the Diamondbacks beat the Mets. I’m taking Arizona to again beat the Dodgers, and the Phillies to beat the Braves in the NL divisional round. I have the Phillies winning the NL Pennant over Arizona.

So a Philadelphia-Cleveland World Series… of course I’ve got my guys. Play ball.

The System the Democrats Insist on Saving Isn’t Worth the Saving

/ Rich Wilkins / 3 Comments

A week ago today, Congressional Democrats sure had some real leverage. The Republican Party controlled the White House, both houses of Congress, every agency in the government, and the courts, but needed Democratic votes in the Senate to pass a funding bill to keep the government open. Senate Democrats half the ability to kill the completely partisan House spending plan and force a bipartisan plan that rolled back much of Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s DOGE cuts. If Republicans refused to make an agreement, Democrats could have walked away and left them holding the bag. After all, the offer on the table was absolutely nothing at all. Trump told them to pound sand.

By now you know what happened. Chuck Schumer’s Senate Democrats, fearing that Trump’s White House would destroy the government if they let it shut down, sent 20% of their caucus over to bend the knee. They took the offer of nothing and gave the Republicans a hand. In the week since, the Trump Administration has still managed to burn down the government. He signed an executive order to basically close the Department of Education. He held an infomercial for Tesla at the White House. They ignored a court order to halt deportations without having hearings to determine if the people being deported were even immigrants or not. They even took down Jackie Robinson’s biography page at the Department of Defense, saying the Hall-of-Famer and veteran of war fell under their anti-DEI policy. It turns out that regardless of whether the Democrats voted to fund the government or not, Trump was going to Trump.

We just had a four year Presidency where the underlying theme was restoring normalcy. It turns out the public was completely not interested. This shouldn’t be that shocking. Basically since 9/11, public polling has said the American public almost constantly feels our country has been on the wrong track. It turns out that terror attacks, Enron, Iraq, priests molesting kids, a bank crash, Bernie Madoff’s ponzi scheme, school shootings, the Patriot Act, Afghanistan, the bank bailouts, COVID, Me Too, Epstein, celebrities stealing PPP loans, opioids, inflation, a broken immigration system, wars in the Ukraine, Syria, and Gaza, and probably lots of bad shit I’m forgetting, has left people feeling as though the world is in decay. It turns out that giving us some unchecked social media, cryptocurrencies, and trash reality TV isn’t making us feel better. Returning to normal doesn’t sound that appealing. Being the party that insists we’ll make it normal again doesn’t help much. Maybe, just maybe, burning it down in the name of a fight over something, like maybe Social Security and Medicaid, would be pretty appealing.

Democrats need to lay out some sort of new vision. Many people who were loyal Obama voters 15 years ago have given up on the product being offered. Responding to banks melting down our economy with a bailout and not jail sentences in the name of a better regulatory system for the economy we have wasn’t it. Responding to people without health care with a better system to buy health care doesn’t excite people. Responding to a crooked student loan system by giving people some forgiveness while leaving the system in tact, only to predictably have it struck down in court, wasn’t popular. Responding to a broken and unfair immigration system with some executive orders and hoping it went away, well you get the point. Continuing to put up some smart, corporate, highly educated Congressional candidates who promise to “run the system better” and maybe throw around some buzz words like “empathy,” is about as appealing as Taco Bell leftovers in your fridge from two weeks ago. The status quo blows, and everyone knows it. Not one fucking halfway normal human being wants to “bend the cost curve” on health care, they want greater coverage for less money out of their pockets.

The Democrats had a chance to demand some good things a week ago, and they passed on it. They passed on it because they were afraid that if they shut down the status quo they’ve spent a generation defending, we would be worse off. Most of the public thinks we’ve been worse off for many years. All the shock to the system they were afraid of, we’re getting anyway. Say whatever you want about Trump, at least he can tell which way the wind is blowing.