If the 2025 Election were a race for a new seat on the Supreme Court, I’d probably be predicting the GOP to narrowly win. It’s not though, and that is going to loom large in how people interpret tomorrow’s results. The Republican Party and their rich backers need voters to vote all the way to the end of the ballot, then vote “no” on retention for the three Supreme Court seats and the singular seat up for the Superior and Commonwealth Courts. That’s a tall task, history says.
Over 810 thousand votes are in already (810,377). The truth is that my numbers are a few hours behind, and that number is probably higher now. Democrats hold a roughly 336,000 voter edge in those votes. I expect 2,403,455 voters to vote in person tomorrow. I expect Republicans to hold about a 290,000 vote edge in registration tomorrow. That means Democrats come out around 46,000 voters up in registration. The roughly 245,000 independent and third party voters will decide tomorrow’s statewide races. Again, if this were a regular election where both parties had candidates on the ballot, I’d be predicting a nail biter.
It’s not though. I can only recall one statewide judge losing retention, and he was neck deep in the 2006 pay raise scandal. Democrats as individual candidates for retention and as a collective movement are spending like crazy to get their voters to vote “yes.” That seems like the likely outcome to me. What I sort of wonder to myself is if Alice Beck Dubow and Michael Wojcik might suffer from less notoriety in their retentions for the Superior and Commonwealth Courts. So if the Supreme Court Judges get 55% Yes tomorrow, do these two end up in a nail biter. The other thing I’m interested in is whether there are signs of a Democratic wave here. Friends working elections in Washington state and Virginia tell me that suburban voters are breaking hard towards Democrats in their polling, with even a substantial number of moderate Republicans (10-15% above normal) in suburban areas breaking towards Democrats. If we see numbers like that in Bucks, Lehigh, Northampton, Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware, it could be a very good night for Democrats. Look, if these retentions end up being blowouts with over 60% voting yes, you have to at least consider that’s what normally happens. For the partisan attention these races got though, I’d be surprised by that.
There are two stand alone judicial races tomorrow at the state level, and they are a very different story. Washington County Judge Brandon Neuman is the Democratic candidate for the Superior Court, and he faces horror movie character 2023 Republican nominee Maria Battista (I managed one of her successful opponents in 2023, so I definitely have some feelings about her). Philadelphia County Judge Stella Tsai faces Republican Matt Wolford in the race for Commonwealth Court. If I had to guess, this will end up in a split decision, with Neuman winning close and Wolford winning close. This will basically come down to the independent and third party voters. One thing I have to wonder is how well the voters know any of these four, compared to the Supreme Court race.
Even a blowout in Pennsylvania is closer than most elections in most of America. If someone wins by 100k votes, we act like that’s some blowout when over 3 million people vote. This election will generally be decided by two things. First, the 245,000 or so independent and third party voters, which probably will pick a winner. Second, the 282,088 vote by mail ballots that have not been returned. Democrats have 100,000 more votes in this group, so more returning is good for them. As is, I am predicting a turnout of 3,213,674 or more. I’m predicting the “yes” votes for Supreme Court to be around 55%, with slightly less for the lower courts. I’m predicting the new seats go to Neuman and Wolford.
It will all be over tomorrow, folks. To a large extent, we sort of know what’s happening already. There are about 40,210 highly likely Election Day voters. The Republicans hold a substantial lead amongst them of 6,111 votes. There are 3,417 independent and third party voters who are likely to show up tomorrow. Two years ago, 47,015 people voted on Election Day. Tara Zrinski got 18,628 votes and lost them by a little bit over 7,500. I am predicting 48,392 Election Day voters tomorrow. Republicans will have a 6,729 vote advantage over Democrats. There will be just over 5,000 independent and third party voters. Tom Giovanni and the Republican ticket will win Election Day by a hair under 8,000. If you’re watching for anything, it’s whether we cross 49 or 50 thousand Election Day votes, and whether his margin is more than 8,000.
Two years ago, 25,421 people voted by mail. Democrats crushed the Republicans with these voters. Zrinski won this group by 13,331 and actually did a little worse than the statewide court numbers. Democratic numbers are a little down from that height though. 16,175 Democrats have returned their ballots, compared to 6,034 Republicans. That’s an edge of 10,141. There are 2,500 independent and third party votes in. Election Day independents probably break Republican and vote by mail independents tend to break Democratic. For argument’s sake, if that’s the case here, Democrats probably come out 10,600 votes up, and Zrinski wins by a little under 3,000 votes. Of course, that’s assuming more votes don’t come in. We’re at 24,709 in already, so it’s probably a bit crazy to think most of the remaining ballots come in. There are 9,150 of them still out there though, and Democrats hold an advantage of 3,020 amongst their registration. Republicans are definitely doing a bit better than 2023 amongst vote by mail voters, but they’d still be happy if less of these votes came in.
Tom Giovanni is probably not going to win tomorrow. The numbers are better for him than they were for John Cusick against Zrinski in 2023 though. Zrinski won the Controller race by 5,775 that year. She’s only going to get to that number if like 3 or 4 thousand more vote by mail ballots come in, or she crushes him with independents. As of right now, I expect turnout to be slightly higher than 2023, something in the neighborhood of 74,000, and I expect Zrinski to win by about 2,600 votes, which is just shy of 4%. So she gets about 51% and he gets about 47%. Is there a path for Giovanni though? Yes. First, I think he has to hope that less than 1,500 more vote by mail ballots come in. Second, he needs to crush it with Election Day independent voters and win the independent voters who voted by mail. Then he’ll need at least some portion of Democrats to come over and vote for him, beyond the usual. That’s a lot, and he and his party did not run a campaign that was advantageous for that. As usual, they followed the conventional wisdom that most of their voters will vote on Election Day. That’s great and all, but it isn’t worth a cup of coffee at Wawa if that’s not enough voters to win. They also messaged entirely at their base with a Charlie Kirk mailer, and weirdly put out signs asking “Where’s the money Lamont?,” as if a.) anyone knows what that means, b.) they actually wanted to drag the guy that crushed them the last two Executive races into the race, and c.) he was their opponent. The strategy was bizarre and made no sense. I think it will probably cost them a relatively close Executive race, a very close judge race, and any shot at the majority on County Council (they need to win 4 seats tomorrow). I think Democrats Dave Holland and Lori Vargo Heffner and Republican Sam Elias will win seats tomorrow night. I would predict the Democrats to win four for sure, but Democrats drop off much faster as we go down the ballot. I think Theresa Fadem and Jason Boulette will be in a very close race with Republicans John Goffredo and John Brown. My guess is Fadem and Goffredo hang on. For Zrinski to be able to govern, she will need two Democrats besides Vargo Heffner to win, so she needs Holland, Fadem, and Boulette to have good nights. If it’s a good night for Republicans and Giovanni over performs, they absolutely could get Elias, Goffredo, and Brown through. I just don’t think I see them getting four seats unless Giovanni wins.
In less than a week, Election 2025 will be over. In Pennsylvania, that means no more commercials with judges in them, very soon. The overwhelming bulk of the attention is on the Supreme Court retention race, and rightfully so. Justices Dougherty, Donohue, and Wecht have been fair, extremely fair, and have protected Pennsylvania from some of the ridiculous shit that has gone on across the country. Even when they threw out the partisanly gerrymandered Congressional map in 2018, they didn’t draw a left-wing utopia map to give Democrats a huge edge. They drew a 9-9 map and stated that Pennsylvanian’s have a right to fair districts. They gave every region that could support a Congressional district a district. They have kept our state from becoming a partisan Petri dish. These judges are protecting the law and deserve a second ten year term.
Make sure you go to the end of the ballot, whether you vote on Election Day or by mail, and check yes for Justices Kevin Dougherty, Christine Dougherty, and David Wecht.
Don’t stop there though. Superior Court Justice Alice Beck Dubow and Commonwealth Court Judge Michael Wojcik are also up for retention. Beck Dubow serves on a narrowly divided court partisanly, and yet has spent the last decade being a fair and impartial judge on one of the busiest courts in the country. The Superior Court is the last court that has to consider your appeal, and they need her for another ten years. Judge Wojcik is on a rather conservative court, but finds common ground with his colleagues every day to uphold the law on matters of policy and government. Go to the end of the ballot, after the Supreme Court Judges, and vote YES for these two as well.
No, you’re not done voting to retain Judges. In Northampton County, Judges Paula Roscioli and Sam Murray have to run for retention. These two judges sit on the bench every day in Easton and hear literally every kind of case- from armed robbery to a custody battle, a civil lawsuit to a PFA. If you’re saying to yourself that you don’t hear much about them, like you forgot them over the last ten years, THAT IS A GOOD THING. Common Pleas Judges don’t belong on the news, because that usually means they did something wrong. These people are literally not allowed to be political at all. They are supposed to just do their job. They have, for ten years. That’s why you don’t hear much about them. That’s why you need to go to the very end of the ballot and vote YES to retain them for another ten years.
Judges are critically important in our society, but they are not the only things that matter in this election. Here in Northampton County, you have three separate races you need to vote for. One is a County Executive, which will change for the first time in eight years this coming January. The County Executive runs the county on a day to day basis. Some things the Executive oversees are the Gracedale county senior citizens home, the department of children and youth, preserving open farmland space, a courts system, the public defenders office, replacing and repairing some bridges, and a whole host of other very basic, day to day functions of our society. You don’t want to put Tom Giovanni or his puppet masters in charge of this government. You do want to put County Controller Tara Zrinski in charge. With the County feeling the crunch of less or no money coming from the Federal and State Governments, you need someone like Zrinski, with a deep knowledge of the county’s finances and the right values to protect our elderly, our sick, children in broken families, and our environment amidst fiscal uncertainty. The next Executive will face some very difficult decisions leading the county forward, and will very likely have to raise taxes to execute functions that have been mandated on them by Washington and Harrisburg. You need someone who will protect the taxpayers and those most in need, as much as you can possibly do so.
The race for the vacant seat on the Court of Common Pleas between Jeremy Clark and James Fuller offers less stark of a contrast. For one thing, Judges can’t say how they will rule on a case, so when running for a new seat, you have to guess. Jeremy Clark is a really solid guy, he’s experienced, smart, and has served his country before as a member of the armed forces. Fuller and I went to school together, and he was always a quiet guy, which is a great character trait in a judge, and his legal work absolutely qualifies him to be a judge. Knowing both, I won’t say anything negative about them. I’m going to vote for Clark, because he shares the values that I do, but there’s no monster in this race.
There are ten seats candidates (five seats), all at-large, up for grabs on the Northampton County Council, and honestly this race depresses me. I am definitely not voting for all five Democrats on the ballot. In fact, I’ll be honest, removing partisanship, the Republicans ran a better, more accomplished ticket. Right now, I’m only going to endorse you voting for Jason Boulette and I guess, Dave Holland, who I didn’t vote for in the primary, but seems perfectly fine, I guess. I voted for Lori Vargo Heffner in each of her past elections, and might even again, but some of her decisions this term were deeply disappointing, particularly when she voted with the Republican minority to give a warehouse in the Slate Belt a tax break, when she voted against her fellow General Purposes Authority board member Paul Anthony to be on the Council, and her vote against a county health center. She decided in this term to be a “check” on the County Executive, which would be fine if he were doing things the public opposed or that contradicted his past statements, but that was not the case. He ran on protecting Gracedale, preserving open farmland, and not raising taxes, which is what he did. There was no need for a “check” on what 56% of the county voted for. Lori is a wonderful human being and she is absolutely smart and qualified to serve on the council. I’m not going to tell you to vote for her or not though, because she did some things I frankly don’t support. She is absolutely one of the five best people on the ballot, but I’m troubled here.
I will not be voting for Theresa Fadem or Nadeem Quyuum. I don’t know Fadem at all, and all I have seen of her campaign consisted of her talking about things the county council has no say over, like affordable housing. The last thing the council needs is another activist who doesn’t really know what county government does, but wants to be heard. Nadeem ran his race for Controller two years ago talking about affordable housing too, and he and his wife waged an ugly campaign against State Rep. Bob Freeman, focusing on “genocide” in Gaza, something Freeman neither supports or has anything to do with. Sorry, I can’t sign for that. Fortunately, these two are barely actively campaigning, and hopefully they will not win. There are some decent people running on the Republican side, but none of them would benefit from my endorsing them, as their voters probably mostly perceive that they disagree with my political positions (I doubt they do as much as they think). At least three of their candidates have family members that are good friends of mine. I just don’t think it would be helpful for me to say anything nice about them, even as people, in this political environment. Unfortunately there are people in their own party who would make that a negative for them. Also, at the end of the day, I’m reluctant to publicly endorse a candidate who I’m probably going to disagree with 60% of the time or more on council, as I won’t want to defend that later. Do I really want this person on council, or do I just think they’re a better, more qualified human than some folks on my side? Right now, I will tell you that I probably leave at least one space blank in this race, if not three.
Here in Palmer Township, we have a few local elections. Brian Snyder is unopposed in his school board race, so all I’m going to tell you here is he’s not this guy. Baron Vanderburg is unopposed to replace Zeke Bellis for the next four years as township Supervisor, so I could say nothing here, but I will just go ahead and tell you that Baron is one of the smartest, most dedicated, and hard working people in local government that I know, and I hope you enthusiastically vote for him. I used to serve on the Board of Auditors with Stephen Colbeth, and he’s unopposed, but vote for him anyway. Doreen Umholtz has been Tax Collector forever, and she’s unopposed to stay there, which is good. There are two contested Supervisor seats on the ballot in the township. First, I’m going to tell you to vote for Tung-To Lam, he’s a hard working young guy that knows township government already and has run an active campaign. Then I’m going to tell you that I don’t know any of the other three very well. From everything I’ve been told by current members of the board, Marcella Cardone will probably be the most productive and “no harm” of the three, so vote for her.
That’s my ballot. If you really want to dig further, and you have my phone number, you can call me to ask.
It wasn’t that long ago that Lehigh County was considered the more “red” county in the Lehigh Valley. It gave us a fairly consistent line of powerful Republicans at the federal and state level, such as Pat Toomey, Charlie Dent, and Pat Browne- or more succinctly, not MAGA. The GOP hasn’t won the County Executive’s post since 2005 (or right after George W. Bush was re-elected. The once Republican suburbs became the key for Susan Wild’s six year run. Nick Miller and Lisa Boscola represent the county in two of the state senate seats. The Republican Party is virtually obsolete in Allentown and Bethlehem, something that wasn’t true when I was growing up. In short, they’re not good at this.
It almost wasn’t that way in 2021. Phil Armstrong had a difficult re-election campaign. In 2017, he won by about 5% over a well funded and fairly normal Brad Osborne with 25,085 votes. In 2021, turnout went considerably up in the county by comparison (vote by mail) to 74,108 votes cast. Maria McLaughlin carried the county for Supreme Court with 37,002 votes and Lori Dumas carried it for Commonwealth Court with 34,303 votes. Timika Lane got more votes than Dumas (34,719) lost the county to Megan Sullivan (who actually got the most votes of all judicial candidates), and Democrats lost two of the three Court of Common Pleas seats (Tom Caffrey, Tom Capehart), with Zac Cohen carrying the third seat by 5 votes over David Ritter (trust me, I remember it well). As for Armstrong, well, he actually conceded defeat at one point in the night, which is only funny because he actually thought he was going to need to in 2017 and I kept telling him he was fine. Armstrong got 51.8% (36,873) to Glenn Eckhart’s 48.1% (34,255), a fairly close race for running against a guy who lost his seat as Controller. Republicans actually won 3 of the 5 commissioner districts as well, marking what was probably their best year in the county in years.
In 2023, the Democrats beat the brakes off of the Republicans in Lehigh County. Dan McCaffrey won the county by over 14% with 42,333 votes (57.03%). Jill Beck and Timika Lane carried the Superior Court race in the county comfortably, and Maria Battista is running again. Matt Wolf won the Commonwealth Court race by just under 8,000 votes, a blowout (55.2% to 44.6%). Democrats won all four Commissioner seats, and by a lot, with Jon Irons getting fourth and still beating the top Republican candidate by over 3,000 votes. The only contested row office race was Coroner, and Dan Buglio won by over 13%. It was, to be blunt, an ass kicking.
So what was the difference? In 2021, turnout was 74,108, or 30.9% of voters. In 2023, turnout was 75,127, or 31.1%. Yes, that’s slightly more, but it is not the kind of jump that should explain that kind of flip. Taking a good look at the current numbers for 2025, Lehigh County has 76,320 likely voters (voters in 2 of the last 4 county elections plus voters who have been mailed a ballot). Democrats hold a pretty substantial advantage in registration among these voters, with 37,661 to 31,823 for the Republicans, and another 6,836 who either independent, Green, or Libertarian. Republicans would need to win nearly all of the independent voters (literally over 90%) or cut into the Democrats ranks to win the race. On paper, Roger Maclean might not be an awful candidate to try that. He’s raised a paltry sum of money compared to Josh Siegel though, who is skillfully pointing out that Maclean isn’t up to the job. Also, his party is trying to use Charlie Kirk to inspire turnout. That’s not going to win over non-Republican voters to their cause.
It’s important to start out understanding Lehigh County this way- it’s similar to Northampton County, but the GOP has not won an Executive race there in two decades, they haven’t carried the county for President at all in that time period, they haven’t won the county for the Congressional candidate on their ticket since Charlie Dent left, and I guess basically I’m telling you that even their good years, they are not likely to win. The big reason is still Allentown, but they have steadily made gains in Allentown during the Trump era for President, and that still hasn’t changed the results because they’re losing voters in the suburbs, particularly the highest educated neighborhoods. But why did they get close in 2021? What was the difference? The answer can be found in voters who voted in 2021, but not in 2023 and have not yet received a ballot. The Republicans hold a roughly 2,600 voter advantage among these people. This Republican leaning group of voters came out and made it close in 2021, but they didn’t show up at all in 2023.
If turnout is somewhere between 2021’s and the 76,320 likely voters I have currently in the screen, there’s not much chance Maclean does all that well against Siegel. His whole campaign so far is “that liberal kid grew up in New Jersey!” and the days of that kind of crap exciting people are long over. Much like in Northampton County, the GOP’s best chance of changing their recent luck begins when *more* voters show up than are expected. In both counties, 2021 voters who didn’t vote in 2023 and haven’t requested a ballot have to come out for them, and maybe even some mid-term voters from their party too. Much like in Northampton County, I don’t think they have the guy to do it. The one caveat I will say here though is that this is basically an analysis of the Executive race, as Lehigh has a recent history of voting very different in their Court of Common Pleas races. Mulqueen may pull out a win without the electorate moving at all, and almost certainly will if turnout goes high.
In 2021, 71,335 people voted. Maria McLaughlin narrowly carried the county for Supreme Court with just below 50% of the vote. She was the only judicial Democrat to do that well in the county. Lamont McClure was about 2,700 votes over 50% in the County Executive’s race, beating Steve Lynch by 12%. Democrats took the top three spots out of the five County Council seats.
In 2023, 72,436 people voted. Dan McCaffery won the county by 14% for Supreme Court, hitting 57%. Jill Beck, Timika Lane, and Matt Wolf all won the county in statewide judicial races. Brian Panella won a seat on Common Pleas by 8%. Tara Zrinski beat John Cusick by 8% for Controller. Democrats won the only two contested County Council seats fairly easily.
Recent history has been good to Democrats. They have not lost an Executive, Controller, District Attorney, or Court of Common Pleas race in the county since 2013. Likely Turnout numbers say that trend has a decent chance to continue. Likely voters (voters who voted in 2 of the last 4 county elections) plus people who have been mailed a vote-by-mail ballot favor Democrats by a 36,405 to 30,037 margin. There are 7,385 independents, 225 Libertarians, and 40 Greens who also meet this criteria. The total number of voters expected under this screen are 74,092. At this turnout, it’s very likely Tara Zrinski will be the next Executive and Jeremy Clark will win the seat on the Court of Common Pleas. I’d also expect “yes” for the sitting Supreme Court Justices to carry the county.
There are ways for things to still swing the other way though. First off, turnout could simply fall short of expectations. A turnout similar to 2021 would likely be more competitive, as McClure outperformed the ticket as a whole that year by over 4,500 votes. Even then though, you have to remember that Zrinski was the top vote getter for Council, and she could still win. The second possibility for the GOP is that they win independents by a crushing margin- but they would need north of 70% of independents to make that happen. The third possibility is that the Republicans pull over a sizable chunk of Democrats. In reality, the GOP needs a little bit of all three, or a massive surge of federal election year Republican voters to show up, for which there is no sign of it happening right now.
I think the one certainty for me is that the strategy of the Northampton County GOP is not conducive to them pulling this off. Mailing about Charlie Kirk and being adversarial about vote-by-mail and early voting is not going to make them appeal to more moderate voters. So while they do have a chance, and there are factors beyond what the parties do (Is the Northampton Democratic Party doing anything?), right now Northampton County Republicans are probably swimming a bit uphill. Things aren’t trending well for them either. A few weeks ago they had opportunities to close in. Now they actually trail in non-2023 voters who are requesting ballots by 7,336 to 6,765. In other words, the unlikely voters becoming likely because they requested a ballot are moving towards the Democrats fairly quickly. If that holds, the outcome seems strongly likely to be obvious.
Tom Giovanni doesn’t talk much. Up until recently his supporters were calling that a good thing. Now, as one Republican put it, “there’s no campaign.” Giovanni has barely mailed anyone, but he’s focusing in on talking to Republican voters, even telling them to vote for him to vote for Charlie Kirk- I kid you not, both county GOP groups are doing this garbage. Giovanni passed on debating Tara Zrinski for Executive, then could barely put together a sentence once he did his individual interview on WFMZ. You could see why he wasn’t saying much. It turns out Giovanni let his County Republican Party Chairman negotiate the format for him. Seriously, he’s running for Executive and won’t make basic decisions. In a recent council meeting he sat by quietly as that same chairman and one of his colleagues argued that the Executive does not have the power to set policy for the county’s elections office. That’ll probably be his excuse for not mailing ballots out if he’s Executive next year. He can’t, his party chairman said so. As I wrote about Giovanni before:
The question is not what Giovanni will do as Executive, the question is whether this man is in a coma or has a pulse at all in his own campaign. As the Republican Congressman, Republican County Party Chairman, and other two incumbent Republican Councilmen are up there focusing all of their attacks on a guy who isn’t going to be appearing on any ballots in 2025, Giovanni is either unwilling or incapable of putting together a coherent sentence, hence why he was terrified to debate Zrinski. Rather than debating, he had his Republican Party Chairman negotiate two separate appearances on WFMZ to “discuss,” or in his case lie about, the issues. This is because Giovanni is simply not capable of saying anything coherent and is better off letting better spokespeople explain his terrible plans for the County.
So what are Giovanni’s plans? Well, let’s be honest, they’re setting up to use the “mismanagement” of funds to come in and argue that it’s time to privatize/sell/close Gracedale. This has been the GOP’s position for 15 years in the county, and they’re going to go as far as they can to get it done. They’re going to use the excuse of the Federal Government cutting Medicaid and Harrisburg not really doing anything to fix it, as well. They’re going to start by demanding he acquiesce to the Council as the new Executive, then he’ll tell them it can’t be run. If the public outcry is too much, they’ll just spend their time making cuts to the place so that it becomes unworkable. Don’t kid yourself, Giovanni may not fully get it, but his handlers have made it clear to him that they oppose a safety net for county residents. It’s coming.
Next, Giovanni’s administration, either unilaterally or by acquiescing to council’s demands, will come in and chip away at access to voting in Northampton County. He’ll immediately kill the satellite voting sites, probably get rid of the four drop box locations (or at least cut them), and probably instruct the election’s office at a minimum to mail out ballots later than the current office does. He may just kill all vote by mail and early voting, citing the President’s illegal executive order on the matter. Does Giovanni fully understand this now? Who knows. He knows that he’s going to do what his handlers tell him though.
This guy is probably a nice enough guy personally, but he’s either over his head or paralyzed by all the different masters he’ll have to answer to if he wins. Apparently he recently went out of his way to say he will *not* be bringing former Executive and current Councilman John Brown in as Director of Administration or anything else. I find that interesting, as Brown is probably their most successful recent county official at winning elections (other than the one he didn’t win), but Giovanni seems to have felt the need to put that out there. Of course the answer is obvious though. County Republican Chairman Glenn Geissinger recently took a job in Schuylkill County as finance director, apparently saying he’d move there soon. I’m sure he will if Giovanni is unsuccessful. And if he wins? Geissinger gets to come take over this courthouse and get rid of vote-by-mail and vote-on-demand sites, gut Gracedale and sell it, let ICE run wild in the courthouse, and DOGE’ing as many people in the county as possible. It’s plain and obvious. He’s controlling what his party’s nominee says and where. This campaign is all about “righting the wrongs” of 2017 for him, when Zrinski was one of the four Democrats who knocked him off.
You can tell me I’m wrong, but that’s like Trump saying he didn’t know anything about Project 2025.
I got a call from a little birdy yesterday (funniest description ever) about local political goings on. There was a lot of news, on all kinds of different topics. One piece of news though was hilarious to me.
A certain member of County Council, running for re-election in 2025, apparently has told people *they* (no I’m not giving it away) plan to introduce legislation at Northampton County Council tonight to scrap the County Executive and return to the three person commissioner system that most counties use.
Say what?
Northampton County passed a Home Rule Charter that basically serves as it’s constitution. That charter created an elected Executive to run the day-to-day goings of the government. Many other counties don’t have that, and are sort of ran by a part-time Commissioner board, but are mostly run by unelected bureaucrats and people who “go along to get along” running departments. They raise taxes whenever they feel like it, and tend to do what is most popular in the government center. They don’t give a shit about public sentiment and they only answer to a bunch of commissioners who don’t really know how the government runs, because they’re not there. It’s an awful system and it isn’t responsive to the public.
I’m not going to name this council person, I like them personally and I hope that posting this ahead of time discourages their poor behavior. They are not doing this because they believe it’s a good idea, they’re doing this because they do not like the current County Executive and they do not like who they think will be the next County Executive. This is petty politics at it’s worst, the kind of mean girl shit that will make life worse for the public. If you don’t like Lamont McClure, Phil Armstrong, Tara Zrinski, or any other person who tries to be County Executive, you run a campaign against them. If people elect a County Executive twice or more, you should just tip your cap- they do represent what the public wants. Running around talking about being a check on elected power, when the voters can kick out that official if they want, is simply living in denial. Deciding you’re going to get rid of the office because you think the voters are going to vote for a third time the opposite of what you think they should is anti-democracy behavior of the worst type. I know this kind of bullshit behavior is par for the course in MAGA right now, but hopefully we’re not going to see this individual try this crap with the county government.
When I was a new voter in my college years, the Lehigh County Republican Party had begun their Fall. Democrats took back the County Executive’s job in 2005, a job the GOP has not won since, across three different elected Executives. The Lehigh County GOP had just face planted in 2001 in Allentown after a couple of terms in charge, then they lost to Ed Pawlowski and never got that job back either, three elected Mayors later. Lehigh County only has a small piece of Bethlehem, but they lose a lot there too. They managed to hang on to some visible power for years with Pat Toomey, Charlie Dent, and Pat Browne, but all of them have been sent off to the GOP inquisition for excommunication at the altar of Trump. As all of this went on, the Lehigh County GOP managed to lose all four at-large seats in the 2019 and 2023 elections and be relegated into a deep minority status on the Commissioner board, regardless of who the Democrats run and who funds the race. In short, the Lehigh County Republican Party has a recent record of success that looks like the New York Jets.
It’s safe to say the Lehigh County GOP has no “Broadway Joe” walking in to save them anytime soon though, so the Jets comparisons are fair. Instead they have Roger Maclean, a former Democrat that says he was always a Trump voter, and served as Ed Pawlowski’s hand picked city councilman and police chief, rubber stamping Pawlowski’s corrupt budgets. Maclean made a fool of himself in a recent debate, where he said he would fix the looming fiscal crisis in the county caused by the state’s overdue budget magically- “we’ll get our money.” Despite complaints to the contrary, Maclean was actually a terrible police chief too. Not only was there law breaking going on in city hall, Maclean had cops arrested in connection with rape, sex trafficking, and other horrific charges while he was chief in Allentown. Basically his cops were assaulting prostitutes and stealing money they recovered in drug busts, allegedly. Not only that, but crime fell immediately after Maclean left the job, both overall and in violent crimes. This guy is a dud.
Not only is the Lehigh County GOP running an ex-Pawlowski Democrat that was asleep on the job, they’re encouraging voters to “vote to honor Charlie” Kirk. Look, it’s awful that the guy was gunned down by a psychopath, but he has literally nothing to do with Lehigh County. I would venture a guess that over 90% of the folks who have discussed him in recent weeks never watched him. This has nothing to do with keeping Cedarbrook open, or how much to cooperate with ICE detainers, or running the children and youth departments, or open space preservation, or really anything within Lehigh County Government. It’s just a straight appeal to the most animal instincts of one portion of the electorate to be mad. Of course, in fairly blue Lehigh County, that won’t be enough for them, but they’re kind of just hoping more normal, moderate voters don’t notice this.
Unfortunately for them, that probably won’t happen.
California gubernatorial hopeful Katie Porter snapped and tried to storm out of an interview after being asked a simple question about President Trump. pic.twitter.com/4AiV9qnmCl
I was never a fan of Katie Porter and her white board. Or her reading a book during the State of the Union. I was never impressed when she just yelled at witnesses during House Oversight Committee Hearings (I’m not impressed with the existence of the Oversight Committee, it serves zero purpose for the general public and writes no laws.). She was just not my cup of tea. She generally votes right and was fine as a Congresswoman, but I was disappointed when she gave up her swing seat to run a quixotic campaign against Adam Schiff for Senate, when literally the entire Democratic Party wanted him. I’m not much of a fan.
The shame when a party wins a wave election is that it drags in some good and some bad candidates. You have people that win in tough swing districts because they’re good candidates, and others who do so because they’re lucky. Then you also have people drug in through the tide who win very safe seats that have no broader appeal to the national electorate, but the Squad is a discussion for another day. The shame of course is when the good candidates in tough districts eventually lose their seats, a lot of activists and donors think *those* are the weaker candidates, and people like Porter are somehow a real future star. That’s how we end up where we are.
So in Porter’s case, the question was absolutely stupid. Why would she need the 40% of voters in California who voted for the losing candidate to help her win? Why not just win over most of the 60% who voted for the winning candidate? If you want to ask if she has any intentions of being bipartisan, go ahead, but don’t act like you can’t do math. Porter’s reaction was also amateur hour. Just give the standard bullshit “I’m working for every vote,” or go with the partisan “I’m concentrating on the Californians who share our vision for the future,” or some shit. Why storm out, it’s not like the reporter called you an asshole? This interview was below the public discourse in 2025, and well, that’s a major achievement.
People like Porter just don’t go away though. A few candidates meet an archetype that is popular with an activist crowd, and it’s a disease that takes a long time to get out of your blood. Amy McGrath is begging you to light your money on fire for her again in Kentucky, where she wants to lose for Mitch McConnell’s seat and raise $100 million again. It’s honestly not going to happen, just go fail up and run for President at this point. Mikie Sherrill might pull out the win in New Jersey, but that’s only because it’s New Jersey. Her campaign of a noun+a verb+fighter pilot+Trump+an inaudible sound is about as inspiring as week old bread, which is just fine as long as she wins, but does give people watching a few skipped heart beats that aren’t necessary. Then there’s James Talarico in Texas and Graham Platner in Maine, both running for Senate seats they are grossly unqualified for on the genius notion that the Democratic Party sucks, and if only we nominate the “working class white guy savior,” we’ll be fine. All of these rising stars, created by a combination of insular DC Democratic operatives, rich out of touch donors, and activists. Could it be that we lose elections because we nominate bad candidates? Could it be that we nominate bad candidates because we look for them in all the wrong places?
There will be millions of dollars spent on Pennsylvania’s judiciary this year. Millions will be spent on the Supreme Court’s retention race, where simply vote yes or no on each of the three incumbents (I recommend yes). The same will be said for the Superior Court and Commonwealth seats up for retention this year. There will be at least a few hundred grand spent on races for new seats on the Superior and Commonwealth Court as well. Here in the Lehigh Valley there is a singular seat on the Court of Common Pleas in both counties that is being competitively contested. All of these races will get plenty of attention and will stir up people’s emotions, just as races for County Executive, County Council, and municipal office will.
You know what hopefully doesn’t get you all hot and bothered this year? Retention votes for the Court of Common Pleas in Northampton County. Judge Paula Roscioli and Judge Sam Murray are both up for retention this year. Judge Roscioli has been on for 20 years. Judge Murray has been on for ten years. Both come highly recommended for another term by basically every lawyer I know in the county. They’re qualified, they’re competent, neither has done anything stupid or embarrassing to the community up there. Their colleagues speak highly of them. Give them another term.
Now here’s the only reason I’m writing about this- voting on these questions can be confusing. First off, the retention votes aren’t on the same part of the ballot as the votes for open judicial seats, so you have to go and find them and vote yes. Second off, a lot of money is going to be spent telling people to vote yes or no on other judicial retentions. Those are completely separate, more partisan races. I’m voting yes on those too, but maybe your politics are different than mine. Even if that’s the case, Democrats and Republicans alike approve of these judges. Vote yes to retain them.
Apocalypse Vibes 