What Ballot Requests Tell Us About the 2025 Elections in Northampton and Lehigh Counties

It’s October. We now know enough about the current state of affairs to take a guess at what this year’s elections will look like. There are reasons to believe this year’s municipal elections could look considerably different than those in 2023 and 2021. There are also somewhat related reasons to believe the Democratic wave of backlash to Trump may not be formulating the way a lot of Democrats expect, or the way it did in 2017.

First, it’s important to understand just a bit of recent history to interpret these numbers. It’s really not worth looking at election numbers from elections before 2020 when figuring out turnout in Pennsylvania, because more voters have been voting since vote-by-mail kicked in. Prior to 2021 for instance, at times you had to hold your breath for an election in Northampton County to top 40,000 voters, and an election with 50,000 voters was considered remarkable turnout. Now there’s no way you fall under 60,000 voters in either county, just based on super voters alone, and both counties have been routinely topping 70,000 voters in the odd year elections. While some Republican candidates right now are screaming about fraud, the truth is that the increased turnout hasn’t made local elections uncompetitive. Republican candidates in Lehigh County nearly won for County Executive and took two of three Judicial seats in 2021. While the Northampton County Republican Party is a third world institution in it’s ineptitude, their statewide judicial candidates were highly competitive in 2021 and they actually gained a council seat that year. Elections in the Lehigh Valley have remained highly competitive. I expect that to continue in 2025.

Northampton County saw 71,335 ballots cast in 2021 and 72,436 ballots cast in 2023. Right now, the highly likely voter pool (2023 voters, voters who cast a ballot in the 2025 primary, and voters who have requested a vote-by-mail ballot) is 78,512. If you expand that by a bit, adding voters who cast a 2021 ballot, you get 90,885. Among the highly likely voters, the growth from 2023 is pretty close and shows us very little. If you expand in that 2021 vote, the GOP begins really making gains. While Democrats are used to believing that higher turnout is good for them, that’s not necessarily the case right now. The more less engaged voters engage, the more it seems to help the Republicans, currently. Now, that trend line doesn’t absolutely spell doom for the Democrats. Again, we remain highly competitive in Northampton County. In this specific case, it’s worth noting Republicans dropped in 2023 from 2021 and Democrats gained. Basically these numbers show us that if both parties have very good turnout, it will be a very, very close election. For Democrats, it just means that turning out voters indiscriminately to feel good is a losing strategy in Northampton County.

In Lehigh County in 2021, 74,108 people cast ballots. In 2023, 75,127 people cast ballots. Much like Northampton, it’s very consistent. The highly likely voter pool right now is 81,490. The expansion pool of voters is 93,984. Lehigh County follows a similar trend to Northampton in that the expanded universe benefits the Republican Party. Republicans dropped off a bit in 2023 from 2021. If they come back, Democrats are in for a brutal fight in which they will very likely need to win over independent voters.

Vote-by-mail suggests the Republicans are getting done what they need to get done, Valley wide. Democrats have requested just shy of 2,000 more ballots than they returned in Lehigh County in 2023. Democrats in Northampton County have requested about 1,500 more ballots than they returned in 2023. Remember that no one gets 100% of their requests actually turned in. Republicans in Lehigh County have requested roughly 3,000 more ballots than they returned in 2023. In Northampton County, Republican requests are up about 2,500 over the number of vote-by-mail ballots returned in 2023. This suggests that Republicans have gained about 1,000 voters over 2023 in both counties. What’s more alarming is that these numbers might not tell the whole story of Republican growth. Lehigh County Republicans who did not vote at all in 2023 have requested 2,474 ballots. In Northampton County, that number is 2,284. In both counties, GOP candidates needed to win nearly all of the independent ballots to make up the gap between the parties turnouts in 2023. These numbers suggest that is no longer true in 2025.

Before anyone gets too excited, this is not a eulogy for the 2025 Democratic candidates in Northampton and Lehigh County. The 2023 Democratic candidates in both counties, of which Tara Zrinski (Democratic nominee for County Executive) was prominently one, very likely won the independent voters in both counties. Candidate quality matters, and Roger Maclean and Tom Giovanni are basically moss growing on a dead tree level of excitement. Giovanni wouldn’t debate Zrinski and then could barely put together a coherent sentence together in his conversation on WFMZ’s Business Matters and Maclean believes he will find “magic money” to plug budget holes. These are deeply unserious, non-thinking individuals. That definitely could matter. Democrats lack competitive elections in Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton though to help turn out their base, and the Northampton County Council Democratic slate charitably has two (maybe three on a good day) candidates I can even stomach the thought of on the council. There are lots of variables in this election besides who turns out, but they break both ways.

I have two basic rules when I run local elections- I do not give a shit what the “prevailing wisdom” inside the courthouse/government center/city hall is, and I really don’t give a shit if a few county/city employees are pissed at the Executive/Mayor because they didn’t get a raise. None of that nonsense is indicative of what the general public thinks about the candidates, they are tiny samples of the electorate that tell us much about nothing. Sure, most of the lawyers in both county can tell you who clearly should win, but they don’t even equal 1% of the electorate. So, if you’re one of the people hanging out at all the party events, debates, picnics, or whatever else and think you have a handle on what is going to happen- you don’t.

What in the Fresh Hell is This?

Two years ago I was busy around this time of year. I was managing Timika Lane’s Superior Court race. One of the two opponents we defeated was the woman in the video above. She’s… interesting. Anyway, she’s running again for Superior Court, or maybe to lead the rapture based on the video above. Holy shit.

I’ll be voting for the pride of Cannon-McMillan, Judge Brandon Neuman.

Josh Siegel’s Path Forward for Lehigh County

Josh Siegel is running to move Lehigh County forward. Phil Armstrong did a great job the last eight years. Now it’s time to look forward. Unfortunately, Siegel has to run against Roger Maclean, a failed police chief who has no idea what government does, or how to do it. In their recent debate, Maclean’s solution to lost money from the federal government was “we’ll get our money.” Maclean lead a police department that raped and robbed people they arrested, now he downplays the death of Capitol Police on January 6th. He’s a disaster and he would end up either raising taxes or cutting all services he possibly could.

I’ll show their debate at the bottom of this post, but more immediately, Siegel has put forward his plan to move Lehigh County forward. From his Facebook:

We’re 41 days out from Election Day. Here’s what our One Lehigh platform is about. Pete Buttigieg has said “our salvation will really come from the local”.

I believe that! I believe in these dark and divisive times, local government is the building block for showing a better way, our chance to show what a better world can and should be in our own backyard:

Here’s what One Lehigh means:

✅A robust and strong local democracy where every resident has as many legal and lawful ways to cast a ballot and make their voice heard, no matter who you vote for or what party you are, it’s your civic duty and most basic right. I want you to exercise it. We need to protect the ballot box from efforts to undermine it.

✅Attainable housing for seniors, first-time homebuyers and working class families. We have a housing shortage, we need to build more of it, and everyone is a partner in that. Public, private and non-profit, it’s an all of the above approach. It’s the only way to lower costs.

✅Investing in and expanding public safety services from regional police and fire to prevention strategies like focused deterrence to ensure that every neighborhood and community is safe and secure. Public safety requires comprehensive, collaborative strategies.

✅Protecitng and preserving Cedarbrook for future generations of Lehigh County seniors and ensuring that our county keeps our promise that patients and residents come first-not profits. Federal funding cuts put these services in jeopardy and we need a county that’s prepared to step up to maintain that commitment.

✅Smart, sustainable and strategic local development that protects farmland and open space and builds the walkable, dense and mixed-use communities people want. We have to accommodate future growth and find a way to house folks who come here for good jobs and schools.

✅Standing up for our public employees and the critical services they provide, county government provides vital human services, mental health and addiction services, children and youth, courts and corrections. It’s a safety net for our most vulnerable and it’ll be under tremendous pressure in light of the disaster federal funding cuts. We need to protect and defend these services and have the backs of the men and women who provide them.

✅Investing in our quality of life from county assets like the Velodrome and Coca-Cola Park to our parks and trails. We need to make Lehigh County a place families want to stay for generations and continue to choose. Amenities and attractions are vital, it’s what anchors and keeps people here in the valley.

✅Tackling the epidemic of isolation and silos on the internet. We’ve never been more connected and disconnected at the same time. We need to get people back outside and build community, talk to our neighbors and build relationships. We have to rediscover our common identity and purpose.

Whether it’s protecting Cedar Brook, defending voting rights, funding the government, or protecting the safety net, Josh Siegel is easily the right choice. We don’t need to DOGE Lehigh County.

But you can watch the debate and make up your mind below.

https://www.wfmz.com/business/business-matters—lehigh-county-executive-debate/video_68d4b0aa-7047-5fd2-a943-2cac0da45fe7.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawNBSdxleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHtM64sjxWPq5C4suMvHWf3jGXBxeFodYQK3bt-fouxAeCFJQiCD-RDFUTBTf_aem_7ip1F-pB7mVeO2cGAjqypw

“The Quiet Man” Giovanni Doesn’t Talk Because His Handlers Won’t Let Him

Tom Giovanni is known as “quiet” on council. Most of his supporters and friends tell me this. John Brown and John Goffredo are the Republicans who talk most in meetings. Giovanni is known as less talkative and abrasive. While some people think that’s good thing, and I normally would too, it’s obviously not a good thing in this case. Under the best case, the man has no idea what he will do if he runs the Northampton County Government from day to day next year. At worst? He does know, but the rest of the GOP is just better at articulating the terrible ideas than him.

Giovanni is running against County Controller Tara Zrinski to be Executive. You wouldn’t be able to tell that from his campaign though. His initial press release, which he did in lieu of an actual announcement where he’d have to talk, was written and released by Congressman Ryan Mackenzie’s campaign manager and district director. Now he has signs popping up in the more Republican areas of the county saying “Where’s the money, Lamont?,” a reference to Gracedale money his handlers say Lamont McClure “lost,” even though it’s quite obvious where the money went from the independent auditor. Then there’s the anti-democracy behavior of Republican County Chairman Glenn Geissinger and Councilman Goffredo, claiming that the Executive does not have the power to run the elections office, only the council does. This is of course ridiculous and absurd in a home rule charter county in Pennsylvania that created an Executive office. They’re mad though, because McClure opened satellite voting “on demand” locations in South Bethlehem and up in the Slate Belt in Washington Township. This is silly, one is in a blue area, the other in a red area. McClure isn’t “rigging” an election here, they just hate when people can vote. Giovanni is again silent as his handlers complain about this too. Then there’s the behavior of Goffredo, grandstanding on a budget amendment, calling for Fiscal Affairs Director Steve Barron to resign when he knows damn well that Barron has been interviewing for new positions and may have an announcement soon, since the current administration will end at the end of the year. This hack on council is just setting up to claim they “pushed him out” in support of why we should elect Giovanni in a few weeks. Meanwhile again, Giovanni is asleep up on council, saying not much of anything.

The question is not what Giovanni will do as Executive, the question is whether this man is in a coma or has a pulse at all in his own campaign. As the Republican Congressman, Republican County Party Chairman, and other two incumbent Republican Councilmen are up there focusing all of their attacks on a guy who isn’t going to be appearing on any ballots in 2025, Giovanni is either unwilling or incapable of putting together a coherent sentence, hence why he was terrified to debate Zrinski. Rather than debating, he had his Republican Party Chairman negotiate two separate appearances on WFMZ to “discuss,” or in his case lie about, the issues. This is because Giovanni is simply not capable of saying anything coherent and is better off letting better spokespeople explain his terrible plans for the County.

So what are Giovanni’s plans? Well, let’s be honest, they’re setting up to use the “mismanagement” of funds to come in and argue that it’s time to privatize/sell/close Gracedale. This has been the GOP’s position for 15 years in the county, and they’re going to go as far as they can to get it done. They’re going to use the excuse of the Federal Government cutting Medicaid and Harrisburg not really doing anything to fix it, as well. They’re going to start by demanding he acquiesce to the Council as the new Executive, then he’ll tell them it can’t be run. If the public outcry is too much, they’ll just spend their time making cuts to the place so that it becomes unworkable. Don’t kid yourself, Giovanni may not fully get it, but his handlers have made it clear to him that they oppose a safety net for county residents. It’s coming.

Next, Giovanni’s administration, either unilaterally or by acquiescing to council’s demands, will come in and chip away at access to voting in Northampton County. He’ll immediately kill the satellite voting sites, probably get rid of the four drop box locations (or at least cut them), and probably instruct the election’s office at a minimum to mail out ballots later than the current office does. He may just kill all vote by mail and early voting, citing the President’s illegal executive order on the matter. Does Giovanni fully understand this now? Who knows. He knows that he’s going to do what his handlers tell him though.

Look, the reality is that the county is probably facing a tax increase in about two years, which if handled correctly, might only be a return to the rates prior to the last cut. Washington’s cuts to funding, as well as Harrisburg’s inability to do things, mandate this. Giovanni’s handlers know that’s bad news, in fact the Republican Party Chair and one of his Republican colleagues on Council both lost their last elections because of a tax increase they carried through. Their plan for their chosen puppet, Giovanni, is to simply cut the living hell out of the county government in a DOGE style, harming seniors, the sick, children, and the needy. Less farmland open space protected, sell Gracedale, cut elections to the bone, and God knows what else. Giovanni may not get all the details, but he knows that. So he’s shutting his mouth. No debates. Sleep through council meetings. Let the attack dogs do all the attacking for him. Let the Congressman’s hired hands run the campaign.

The amazing thing is that the Northampton County Republican Brain Trust, who haven’t won a competitive election for Executive, Controller, District Attorney, or Judge since 2017, and have been in the minority after every election on council since 2017, might still blow this. Their decision to run their entire campaign as a referendum on an outgoing Executive who kicked their asses twice, basically betting that the public already doesn’t like their actual opponent who has won county wide election three times now, is political malpractice. I hope they stay on this message for a few weeks, because then Zrinski will win the election. No skin off our backs.

Listen, I’ll go on record and say this is the worst Democratic slate for County Council I’ve ever seen, and I’m not voting a straight ticket for them all. I won’t go further into my explanation for now. There’s a lot to be desired here. There is no doubt though that Zrinski is superiorly capable to the rutabaga the GOP put up in this race. It is possible that Giovanni has a full understanding of what he wants to do with Northampton County, and that he is smart enough to know it’s best he never says some of the things himself. I kind of respect that actually. With that said, if you have to not say what you’re going to do as Executive, because you’re better off letting a pack of rabid dogs and loons behind you say it for you, should you be elected? Of course not. Tom Giovanni is not some quiet wiseman, and he shouldn’t be rewarded for it. At worst he’s an incompetent moron, at best he’s an evil genius. Either way, he’s totally afraid to talk to you.