Crooksy and Republican Crosswell’s Impending Nuclear War

Well, we’re like three months or so from Pennsylvania Primary Day. Republican Ryan Crosswell and Bob “Crooksy” Brooks have the most money in the PA-7 race. Crosswell is fraudulent. Crooksy is the biggest fraud in the field. Now we know that Crosswell was the source of most of the negatives on Crooksy too. Both men are virtual unknowns. Both know that only one of them has a shot to take off in this race. The only question is who bites who first? If you ever wanted to watch a scorpion fight, you’re in luck with this race.

Here’s the thing, a lot of people are going to opine for everyone to stay positive. That’s not an option here. Crooksy can’t afford to not hit Crosswell. Crosswell has more money than he does, and if he gets to tell his made up story of standing up to Trump first and people buy into it, Crooksy will have no oxygen to rise in this race. Crosswell can’t afford to not hit Crooksy either. If Crooksy has the Governor lie to people and tell them that he’s a good Democrat and good person, Crosswell won’t be able to pry those votes back from him, no matter what he says. Both need to hit the other, and both need to do so before minds are made up. Both start out with no base of votes, and need to find people gullible enough to buy into their fictional stories about their lives. If one beats the other to the punch, the ball game may be over. If they both go positive? Well whoever feels like they’re behind will need to absolutely tear the other to the ground to have any chance to win.

Both of these guys have never run for office before. Both are entirely creations of a DC consultant class that is trying to drive the Democratic Party off of a cliff right now. Their high priced spin masters will probably tell them that going negative is too dangerous, and blah blah blah. That will only hold for a little while. There is no way both of these two can build themselves up from nothing. Eventually one of them has to start firing the very obvious opposition research that is out there on both. These are two very objectionable people and it would be malpractice to run a campaign where you don’t inform the public of how fraudulent the other is. If they don’t do it to each other, who will? No one else can come in with that kind of heft and define these guys for who they are.

The Tree Fell in the Forest and Absolutely No One Heard It- Tiburcio Elected to Represent Allentown in Harrisburg

First, the good news- Ana Tiburcio won in the 22nd House District last night. Democrats keep their 102-101 majority. The Mayor, County Executive, and entire state legislative delegation all don’t wear egg for supporting the candidate. Not only did she win, but she won big. She got 67.28% of the vote. In other words, Bob Smith got a lower percentage than he did in 2022’s race. It was a blowout. Allentown’s Latino majority population now has a Latina State Representative, which is how it should normally be.

Now, the bad news- absolutely not a ****ing soul voted in that God forsaken election. I’m not kidding. 6.9% turned out to vote in this thing. Had Smith got the 3,662 votes he got in 2022, or if he had even got half the votes he got in that election, he would have defeated Tiburcio by a fairly comfortable margin and flipped the state house. 2,249 people out of 32,737 registered voters voted in this election. An election to empower someone to vote on your schools, roads, police, firemen, zoning laws, and literally basically every part of your every day life wasn’t intriguing enough for people.

Such is life on “Planet Allentown,” I guess. I’m not sure a vote total this low makes me think Representative-elect Tiburcio can beat Ce-Ce Gerlach, but now she’ll have at least a few weeks to get a check from every lobbyist in Harrisburg. Also, rumor has it that something “disqualifying” is going to be put out into the public about Gerlach, and my guess is we’ll get that in the next month or two. Gerlach has a base of support though, and I’m not sure the powers that be can dissuade her support, or for that matter beat it. This race will be very interesting to watch.

Perhaps a slightly different read here though- yes, Allentown has a recent history of poor turnout in elections, but are numbers this low emblematic of something greater in the air? 6.9% turnout suggests that people are not nearly as enthusiastic to vote as many people think. Now, the 2025 elections produced astronomical turnout, and perhaps that tells us more. Or perhaps it doesn’t. It’s brutally difficult to watch the news right now, and watching it doesn’t excite anyone. I guess we’ll find out where people’s heads are at in May.

Bob “Crooksy” Brooks and Being Completely Full of Shit

Bob “Crooksy” Brooks is a bad guy. In a different time, political people of all stripes would agree. Stiffing an elder out of over $50k is the kind of thing that made everyone condemn you at one time. The thing is, Bob is a bad guy under 2026’s partisan lense too though. He hated Barack Obama. He hated Colin Kaepernick too. Newsflash here- the guy doesn’t really like Black guys with political opinions, or at least he didn’t before he was running for Congress. He was a gun nut and school prayer proponent before too. In no measurable way was this man a good guy, according to Democratic values. He really wasn’t by non-political, neutral values either. Republicans are going to point out his personal finances and voters are going to cringe. He’s the one candidate who can lose to Mackenzie for sure. People will see right through the “working class hero” and see a bum.

The thing is, it’s way worse than I even previously wrote. While I was “away” at St. Luke’s, we learned where all his shady money went- shady causes. Much like he now runs as a “progressive champion,” it seems everything Crooksy believes in has a price tag:

Of U.S. immigration law enforcement, Brooks writes in his campaign platform: “In America, we don’t send masked men to kidnap people off the street and throw them into unmarked cars. It’s bullshit and un-American.” Brooks’ wife owns up to $1,000 worth of stock in government contractor Palantir, a company co-founded by Republican megadonor Peter Thiel that provides technology to Immigration and Customs Enforcement to find and deport undocumented immigrants.

Regarding Americans staying healthy, Brooks writes: “No more lining the pockets of insurance and drug company bosses. Healthcare should work for people.” Brooks or his wife owns stock in several pharmaceutical and health insurance companies, including drugmaker AbbVie (up to $1,000), pharmaceuticals and medical products distributor Cardinal Health (up to $15,000), insurance company Elevance Health (up to $15,000) and insurance company Humana (up to $1,000), according to his financial disclosure.

In a statement to NOTUS, Brooks’ campaign manager Jenna Kaufman said Brooks has never personally traded stocks — the couple uses a professional investment management firm to steer their stock holdings, according to Brooks’ financial disclosure.

“Once in Congress, neither he nor his wife will own individual stocks,” said Kaufman, who did not answer questions about the couple’s personal investment philosophy or indicate whether Brooks and his wife would divest of their individual stock holdings in the meantime.

Among other stocks owned by Brooks or his wife: shares of Chevron, Meta, Nvidia and Tesla. Brooks and his wife together also own between $2,000 and $30,000 worth of stock in Amazon.com, which has faced accusations of illegal union busting and formal complaints alleging as much.

Brooks’ exact net worth is unclear, as congressional candidates are only required by law to list the values of their assets and liabilities in broad ranges, such as “$1,001 to $15,000” or “$50,001 to $100,000.”

Taken together, Brooks and his wife could be worth as little as about $148,000 and as much as $3.89 million, according to a NOTUS analysis of more than 220 individual assets and liabilities Brooks disclosed on Jan. 28.

Crooksy is going to make excuses about why he’s running as if he’s Bernie Sanders, but investing as if he’s Elon Musk. The Governor is going to defend him, because it’s good for him in 2028. Allentown’s electeds will defend him too, because they don’t want to get on the wrong side of the fire fighters. It’s all self interest, and it’s everything wrong with the Democratic Party. One of the main reasons we can’t get the votes of people we claim to want to help is that they know we’re full of shit. This dude is invested in Palantir and Chevron, but wants you to know he’s a working class champion who will stop Trump- do you think any normal, functioning human being believes this? Like, outside of hardened partisans, do we really think anyone buys this guy’s lies? Be serious with yourself, he is running as a lie. The truth is that this guy was a relatively mediocre, normal, white male citizen with semi-racist views and money issues, people puffed him up by telling him he could be a very important person in Congress, and now we’re all being fed a line of pony loaf and being told it’s good for us. This was a bad idea from the start, hence why I wrote the original piece about him and left his name out, because I hoped he wouldn’t do this to us. He’s a narcissist though, and he can’t help himself.

You can’t pee on someone’s leg and tell them it’s raining. Voters who aren’t rabid partisans are not going to see this man as a “working class hero.” Perhaps 2026 will be such a partisan wave that it won’t matter, but I doubt that. Sooner or later, voters are going to view this guy as the entitled “fat cat” that he is, and it’s going to be a problem. It’s going to be a problem because it’s true. It’s all true. You can’t lie to people forever.

Crosswell’s Poll and the Source of My Negatives on Crooksy

It’s always happy hour in Crosswell’s adopted hometown of DC.

Yesterday a web poll came out that was very obviously from Ryan Crosswell or someone supporting him. They tested a lot of statements, good and bad, about Crosswell. They tested mostly positive messages about Lamont McClure and Carol Obando-Derstine. They tested a bunch of negatives and a little positive on Bob “Crooksy” Brooks. It was by no means a complete poll, but it was much better than the slop Crooksy released.

By no means is this a real poll and the numbers you will eventually get will be whatever point in the poll tested most positive for Crosswell. However the message testing was very interesting. It was almost familiar. It was everything you’ve read here about Crooksy. In fact, I can now say with certainty that whoever dropped me the dossier on Crooksy last year was connected to Crosswell somehow. The reason I know that? I hadn’t yet wrote about Crooksy supporting election deniers, but it was in the dossier. It was in the poll yesterday. Even the wording was the same. I have to tip my cap to the Crosswell folks, good job here. Everything they found was accurate and true, and they got it out into the lifeblood of local politics ahead of their actually using it. Grade A work.

In case you’re wondering if I’m mad about it, I’m not. Bob “Crooksy” Brooks is the worst candidate of the real ones. His personal baggage would lose him the general election, nominating him would be a mistake. I don’t like the idea of nominating a union buster and Republican as the Democrat in PA-7, and I don’t trust Crosswell, but I find him less fraudulent and more electable than Crooksy. I think nominating a Republican carpet bagger is reprehensible, but I find it less repulsive than nominating a guy who stole from his mother-in-law and won’t pay her back.

Also, apologies to Carol Obando-Derstine’s team, who while I had never written it, I long suspected was behind sending me the Crooksy info. I’m pretty certain they were not.

Planet Allentown and that Debate the Other Night

I don’t know Ana Tiburcio, but I feel bad for her. Getting up and debating in a televised setting for any office takes a level of confidence that like 99% of people don’t have. Then you add on that a lot of the people criticizing her now were going to say she sounded out of her depth no matter what, and it’s kind of a no win situation. She was debating a perennial candidate in Bob Smith, so he’s comfortable being lost up there, and she’s supposed to win, and nothing she did was going to be good enough, and yeah- it’s hard as hell. I want to give her some grace for that debate performance because I know it isn’t easy.

With that said, we are talking about an election that decides who controls a 102-101 election, and by extension, the well being of millions of Pennsylvanians. Tiburcio is supposed to win, and should, but it’s fair to expect her to do some real basic things in a debate. She had a job to introduce herself and her work to the public in the debate. When your leading achievement that *you* cite on the school board is community engagement, you need to go into some depth for us about that engagement- what you’ve learned, some precise stories you’ve heard, some details. I wasn’t sure from that debate if she had mastered her current job, let alone shown us she’s ready for this one. She also had a job to introduce us to her opponent. When she had a chance to ask him three questions, she decided on the second one to say, “I think I know enough about him already.” That’s wonderful. You as the candidate aren’t the audience. The voters are. They need to know more about him, and you have to assume they don’t know yet. When you combine these problems with the consistent answer of “I’ll ask the legislators,” a reasonable person could be left standing there asking, is the Democratic candidate as prepared to actually do the job as the Republican? Or is she literally being put forward as literally a proxy vote in that district for the other two state reps in Allentown? I’ll leave out the criticisms of the bizarre things (calling Josh Siegel a “five… out of ten” in the seat before her because she couldn’t find his office was weird shit), but I think it would be fair to ask if this is going to be an independent person and legislator in Harrisburg or if everything down to district office staff will be picked in the other two offices.

Which leads us to the subject of Ce-Ce Gerlach in this race. Ce-Ce is a bit to my left, as I think you could guess from the blog. With that said, no competent adult watched that debate and can honestly say Ce-Ce wouldn’t have been a more prepared candidate to do this job in March when the winner is seated. She was passed over because the folks pulling the strings here, the other major electeds in Allentown, don’t want her. I’m not sure why one blessed voter in Allentown should care what they want? When the other option was someone who was working on state issues as an aide to the State Senator, I think that was easy to excuse. He was ready to do the job. That does not seem to be the case now. If this races doesn’t change (i.e.- add candidates) between now and May, I have literally no argument for why a person should not vote for Ce-Ce Gerlach. In fact, I’ll be honest, they should. If that upsets some of the folks who are “leaders” in Allentown, so be it.

Allentown has weird politics. In the past year the Mayor beat a “Make Allentown Great Again” style candidate 80-20%, a noose was planted in City Hall, allegedly by the person who claimed it was put on their desk, and the “conservative” wing of City Council went away for the first time in forever. Don’t get this twisted, Easton and Bethlehem have their quirks too, but Allentown can be on it’s own planet sometimes. While the utter disgusting corruption of the Pawlowski era is gone now, the old idea of a couple of leaders sitting around and dividing out the spoils among the peasants that are loyal to them is still there. We’re seeing the ugly side effects of that manifest themselves in this race now. It isn’t a pretty sight to watch.

Why Pinsley Should Stay in PA-7 Instead of Running for PA State Senate 16

Mark Pinsley is running for Congress right now in PA-7, and at least according to Facebook, still has an even scheduled for this weekend. He should keep it up. Of course, the street rumors are churning that Pinsley will soon drop out of the race to run for the 16th District in the PA Senate. The preferred story out there is pretty predictable- that seat is winnable, the writing is on the wall, and he lacks money. Those are all pretty good reasons to make the move, if we’re being honest. The problem is, these stories are like a night club, you can get in, or if you know someone who owns the place, you can really get in. You see, Mark Pinsley is a serious problem for Bob “Crooksy” Brooks, the preferred candidate of the Harrisburg Good Ole’ Boys. They want to make Crooksy the “working class hero” of the left in this race, hence his endorsement from Bernie Sanders, but it’s all fraudulent. A lot of people are realizing that Mark has actually been honestly talking like a leftist populist for a long time. They are going to have to astroturf that kind of movement for Crooksy. So the more juicy version of this story that people who know, but don’t like it, are trying to get out there is this- the 16th State Senate District nomination to take on Jarrett Coleman can be had, if he just moves over to that race, from this one. They may insinuate support or money for that, I’m not privy to that, so it’s not clear.

Look, if in fact Mark can actually go to that race and cleanly clear the field and flip it, then he should do that. That’s not clear though. First, he did lose by nearly 10% last time. Second, this race is going to be anything but clean and clear. The Bucks County Democrats chose to endorse Pennridge School Board Member Bradley Merkl-Gump, who defeated the “Moms for Liberty” slate on that school board in 2023. That endorsement has come under fire by activists and other candidates alike. Lehigh County resident Juan Vargas decided he’s just going to run anyway. Ruby-red Richlandtown Mayor Wayne Codner, a Black veteran winning in deep red territory, is likely to run. And well, the commentary on the endorsement was basically awful in the article. The Red, Wine, and Blue organizer said no one likes it, a Democratic consultant said the party has no idea what they’re doing. This primary is going to be ugly and brutal.

There’s a fairly decent chance that Pinsley can win this primary. He has been the nominee before, he’s an elected official in the county with more voters, and he’s run before. That’s far from a sure thing though. And then there’s the question of whether he should want that. Does he want to run as an anti-establishment candidate against candidates who are literally living the anti-establishment mantra right now? Does he want to win an ugly primary and spend any money he has trying to claw through it? Does he really believe all the state leaders and labor unions saying the seat is open right now are going to fund him at the level he needs to beat a Yass-funded candidate? Yeah, there’s lots of maybes there. Maybes don’t often become yes’s, and they never do when you need a bunch of them in a row.

Yeah, I’m sure everyone is telling him he has no shot to win the Congressional race. I don’t think he’s a favorite or anything. But if he’s going to roll the dice on coming up with a flush here, why not go for more consequential victory?

Who Will Replace Governor Sherrill in Congress?

It’s primary day in NJ-11. Yeah, I know, it’s a Thursday in February and doesn’t feel like voting time, especially in New Jersey (who has their primary in June), but you will vote and you will like it if you live in the district formerly represented by Governor Mikie Sherrill. If you’re a Republican, you only have one option, so you get to live out your fetish of living in Russia today. If you’re a Democrat, you literally have 11 actual choices and two names they couldn’t get off the ballot in time. Of course, this is all for a Special Election for the rest of this year, and in June you get to do it again in the real primary, but we’ll see if all of these names actually make it to June.

There are several candidates who are a bit more prominent in this field, but for fairness purposes I’ll start out by giving you the full field first. From The New Jersey Globe:

Eleven Democrats are running in next week’s primary to succeed Sherrill, who resigned from the House in November following her election as New Jersey’s 57th governor: Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett; U.S. Army veteran Zach Beecher; lawyer and Trump impersonator J-L Cauvin; former Obama White House aide Cammie Croft; Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill; Morris Township Committeeman Jeff Grayzel; former Rep. Tom Malinowski; former Bernie Sanders for President political director Analilia Mejia; Chatham Township Committeeman Justin Strickland; former Lt. Governor Tahesha Way; and newcomer Anna Lee Williams.  Two others – Maplewood Mayor Dean Dafis and former congressional aide Marc Chaaban – have withdrawn from the race, but their names remain on the ballot.

The winner with face Republican Joe Hathaway, the mayor of Randolph, in the April 16 special election

There is virtually no public polling here, so we’re flying blind into this one. If I had to guess who has a legitimate shot today, I’d say in order it’s Malinowski, Mejia, Gill, Way, and Bartlett. Malinowski has weirdly drawn fire from AIPAC in this race, despite being a long-time ally, over saying future aide to Israel should come with conditions. I once shared an office with Mejia, she’s a very nice and capable woman, though I’d say we have a little different politics, but I wish her well. Gill has had a long career as a powerhouse operative in New Jersey politics and has been a county elected in Essex County for a few years now. Way was literally the Lieutenant Governor last month. Bartlett is a county elected. Way, Gill, and Bartlett all have pockets of support in the district that could win them this race if they show up to vote. Mejia and Malinowski have largely driven the narrative though. A win by Malinowski would weirdly be a win for moderate Democrats and a loss for AIPAC, and there’s a lot of overlap there. A win by Mejia would be a big win for progressives. If I had to bet today, I’d bet on Malinowski winning narrow. But we’ll see tonight.

If a Tree Falls in the Forest- What Was the Point of the PA-7 Debate on Sunday?

Live action shot from the PA-7 Debate on Sunday.

I told you on Sunday that they were holding a debate without press, at the request of Croosky’s campaign. I get it, the guy can’t talk off of a script. As it turns out, the details were even dumber than I was initially told. Some guy at the DCCC was actually making the demands for no press, and even no candidate questions for each other. He basically wanted robotic answers and no possibility of anyone slipping up. This is incredibly stupid and kind of gets to the point- they want to push an absolute potato of a candidate on us without testing anything about the guy. They’d rather wait until the general election to see how their guy handles being called out for being a crook. I get why. At a recent Lehigh Valley 4 All meeting, when asked about funding for Israel, Crooksy pulled his shirt up over his face and then proceeded to try and say he’d cut off war funding, but would let them keep the Iron Dome. Hopefully he knows the difference between the Iron Dome and the “Golden Domers” at Notre Dame, but I’m not holding my breath there. He was so awful in his answer that the video is now set to private. Anything to hide this man’s weakness. The problem is, their luck will run out there. For as much as I have released about Crooksy on here so far, the Republicans already have far more. A former fireman who decided not to share information with me about him instead recently took his dossier of interesting info to a Republican lobbyist in Washington. They’re going to tear this guy to shreds.

What’s actually the point of even having a debate if no one sees it? I’d argue that five of these seven candidates have very little to no name recognition right now, including the DCCC’s chosen potato. I mean, they’re debating in a room full of basically well informed, decided voters. No one else got to see it. No live stream, no videos, no press coverage. Did it even happen? If I didn’t have people in the room to tell me about it, I wouldn’t be able to prove it. Honestly, if the support staff doesn’t want these guys to debate, I think they’d be better off just saying don’t have the debate. Honestly, who even benefited from this?