2026-election

A Look at the 2026 Senate Field

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

So far this entire cycle has been basically focused on the U.S. House and who will gain control in the 2026 midterms. The House is clearly more in play than the Senate, as Democrats will need to win four Republican seats, and there’s just not really four seats in play. In 2026, Democrats have a real shot to win in North Carolina and Maine. After that it’s a lot of what if’s.

Q4 Fundraising numbers are out in most of the big races, giving us the latest look at who has a real shot and who is pretending. Here are some highlights:

  • Roy Cooper raised $7 million in North Carolina. The former Governor is by far the Democrats strongest challenger this cycle and he has basically cleared his pathway to the general election. Lead Republican Michael Whatley raised $3.8 million. While that’s less than Cooper, Republicans rely much more heavily on their super PACs and leadership funds to fund general elections, so he won’t be outspent this badly.
  • Nazi tattoo enthusiast Graham Platner may be DOA in a general election, but he did raise $4.6 million in Maine. Governor Janet Mills was left behind with $2.7 million, which in Maine terms is still way more than enough. Republican Senator Susan Collins raised $2.2 million in Q4. I don’t know how much money it would take to clean up Platner’s Nazi enthusiasm, racism, and homophobia, but I hope we don’t have to find out.
  • In Ohio, Sherrod Brown’s last stand had a strong quarter. He raised $7.3 million for the race. Appointed Senator Jon Husted raised $1.5 million. If Brown can’t win this race in this year, I feel like Ohio is truly gone for a while.
  • In Iowa, it’s a two horse race. Zach Wahls raised $741k and Josh Turek raised $677k. The third candidate, Nathan Sage, raised $229k. Republican front-runner Ashley Hinson raised $1.6 million for the race. Look, if Turek wins, I think this could be in play, as he has a rather amazing personal story that appeals to people outside of just the Democratic base. Wahls came to prominence in Iowa through his own rather interesting story, but I don’t think he has the same kind of crossover appeal that you have to have to win as a Democrat in Iowa.
  • Anyone who has talked to me knows that I don’t think we’re winning Texas no matter who wins the primary. With that said, James Talarico hauled in an impressive $6.9 million last quarter. Despite entering in December, Jasmine Crockett raised $6.5 million. Again, I’m not bullish on this seat, but that’s pretty excellent numbers for a competitive primary. John Cornyn hauled in $7 million, and if he survives his primary I don’t think we have a prayer. Ken Paxton raised $1.1 million for his primary challenge and Wesley Hunt brought in $429k.
  • I do not have anyone’s numbers in Florida.
  • The most endangered Democratic seat may be the open New Hampshire seat where Chris Pappas brought in $2.3 million as the clear Democratic front-runner. Republican former Senator John Sununu raised $1.3 million and Scott Brown raised $374k. Sununu is going to be formidable, but Pappas is off to a good start.
  • Michigan is another major possible problem for Democrats, especially if the wrong person wins the primary. Haley Stevens raised $2.1 million and Mallory McMorrow raised $1.7 million in relatively strong quarters for a primary like this. Both would be good nominees. Abdul El-Sayed was a strong candidate perhaps, before becoming the Bernie/Uncommitted hero, and he raised $1.7 million as well. Republican front-runner Mike Rogers raised $1.9 million.
  • Minnesota is the third of the Democratic open seats, and Angie Craig leads the way with $2 million raised in Q4. Peggy Flanagan raised $1 million.
  • Georgia is the hardest defense for Democrats, but Jon Ossoff raised a whopping $9.9 million in Q4. The top Republican was Buddy Carter at $1.7 million, followed by Dereck Dooley with $1.1 million, and Mike Collins with $825k.

For Democrats to win the Senate, too many things have to go right. They have to win three open seat holds, hold Georgia, win North Carolina and Maine, and then figure out two of four in Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and Florida, which is quite a reach. If Mills, Turek, and either Stevens or McMorrow win their primaries, I think there is a shot. That’s a lot of things that have to go well.

Crosswell Laps Crooksy as PA-7’s Dems Lack Cash for the Stretch Run

/ Rich Wilkins / 2 Comments
“Comrade Bernie, Please Send Help!”

I told you before that despite losing his manager to a job with the Governor, Republican Ryan Crosswell has a huge pile of money for his Congressional run. That’s sort of true. Yes, his shady out-of-town, union buster donors are writing him shit tons of money. He raised $443,757 in Q4, putting him at $1,144,864.79 for his 2025 fundraising. That’s pretty impressive. Until you look at the full report. Crosswell, who is virtually unknown yet to the voters of the 7th Congressional District, where he never lived until this election cycle, spent a whopping $532,615.04 so far in this election. No, he really hasn’t done any direct contact to voters yet. He has $612,250 on hand. That’s an astounding burn rate. I guess the important guys in DC really told him how to run his race. With that said, even this looks competent in the field. He has spent 46.5% of what he has raised so far. That’s absolutely incredible, and not in a good way.

Bob “Crooksy” Brooks must be taking the same advice, he’s just not as good at this. I guess that’s why Harrisburg bosses want to buy it for him. Crooksy got crushed again by Republican Crosswell, raising $301,698 even with the Governor’s help. To date, Crooksy has raised $609,957.05. He has spent an astounding $269,189.98 to date. This leaves him with $340,767.07. I couldn’t even believe his report. No one who doesn’t read this site knows who the hell this guy is yet, and he’s spent nearly half of his money already. If anyone hits him for stiffing his mother-in-law, hating Barack Obama, being a religious fanatic and gun nut, and posting racist shit online, he’ll have to divert his funds away from introducing himself to defending that. He’s spent 44% of his funds as is, and has little to show for it.

I have to admit, I did not think Lamont McClure would have this much trouble raising money, given his track record. But alas, here we are. McClure has raised $480,615.99 so far in the campaign, with $200k of that coming from himself. He raised just $21,770 in the last quarter. He has spent $193,025.79 to date. He has $287,590.20 on hand. Basically Crooksy has spent what he has on hand, Crosswell has spent more, and they’re still behind, which is really what he has to hang his hat on here. He has spent 40% of his money, which is far too much. His report is here. If everyone is going to be left throwing rocks though at the end, he probably wins that. The optics aren’t great, but he has less to introduce than these other folks.

Mark Pinsley’s campaign is in a worse version of the same situation. Pinsley raised $52,088 last quarter, and $125,194.46 for the year. He spent an utterly insane $75,177.31, or the majority of his money. He has $50,017.15 on hand, but also has a debt of $1,567.67. If you don’t believe me, check out his report. Listen, I actually like Mark personally, so don’t get this twisted. The guy has spent 60% of his money. I’m not sure anyone outside of Lehigh County knows much about him. He can basically afford like a little more than one piece of mail to the whole electorate right now.

Carol Obando-Derstine’s situation is interesting, because she raised six figures, but yet the finances look bleak. She raised $100,625 in Q4 and $431,919.36 for the year. She spent a crazy $308,411.36 so far, or most of her money. She has $123,508 on hand, and a $12,500 debt. She spent 71.4% of what she raised. You can check it out here. I guess she’s in a better place than Pinsley, but it feels like she should have spent much less.

Aiden Alexander Gonzalez report isn’t up yet, so we have no idea how he did. Lewis Arthur Shupe doesn’t even turn up a committee when you google him, so I’m going with God there.

Look, I think using fundraising numbers to pick your candidate is the dumbest thing ever. Does anyone really think the DCCC and national Democratic Party PACs aren’t going to come in here and spend in the general election? Of course they are, they have to, there’s no way we win the House and don’t win this seat- unless we nominate a dope of a candidate. You try to pick the candidate who has the best combination of good ideas and a chance to win, both at once. Perfect policy positions are meaningless if you have no shot of winning, and being the most electable candidate ever is worthless if you’re basically going to vote with the other side. The point of looking at these numbers is guessing what their chances of victory are. I don’t think any of them have enough money right now for the stretch run of this race. Television is expensive in the Philadelphia media market. Mail is not cheap in this day and age. Digital? Yeah, it’ll cost you. If you think field organizing is going to win you a race like this, just understand you need to scale up to a Congressional District’s sized field operation- which is expensive. Nobody has that here. Perhaps Crooksy’s dark money gets him there. Maybe Emily’s List gets Carol over the line. Maybe Crosswell just has another good quarter and out spends everyone two-to-one, and the fact that he’s a union-busting Republican doesn’t matter. Or, just maybe, McClure hangs on to this thing by spending wisely. I don’t know. This looks increasingly to me though like it’s a rock and spear chucking battle, and not an atomic age showdown.

As Crooksy Prepares to Debate (Without Press), Harrisburg’s Fat Cats Realize They Need to Buy Him This Race

/ Rich Wilkins / 4 Comments

Bob “Crooksy” Brooks had his office opening yesterday. There were about a dozen people who were in the photo one person posted, which is about what his excitement on the ground in PA-7 is- a couple of elected officials in Allentown, a couple of operatives, a couple of guys who are union members from unions that aren’t members of the Lehigh Valley Building Trades, a child who can’t vote, and like two people who came in from off the street. Quite impressive, right? Now to be fair, I’m not sure any candidate would have a huge number of people at an event like this yet, but both McClure and Obando-Derstine had more people at their announcements, Pinsley had more people at his meeting to organize petitions, and Crosswell isn’t even from here and had more people in some person’s living room the other night.

It’s right about now that “Crooksy’s” Harrisburg handlers are realizing they are going to have to astroturf this thing. There guy is getting out raised badly by Crosswell and even they know he’s much further behind McClure and Obando-Derstine than their poll that purposely excluded Pinsley said. So, here comes the astroturf group to save him:

Good Morning,

I hope this finds you well. I am writing today to invite you to a presentation regarding Stronger Together PA, an entity that will be supporting Bob Brooks in the race for Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional district.

Bob is a Bethlehem firefighter who spent 20 years protecting his community. He was elected President of the Pennsylvania Professional Fire Fighters Association where he led statewide fights for fair wages, benefits, and safety. Bob has earned the endorsement of labor leaders, including IAFF and SEIU, and elected officials such as Governor Josh Shapiro, Congressman Chris Deluzio, and Senator Bernie Sanders. In Congress, Bob will protect good union jobs, focus on affordability, support public safety, and strengthen the Lehigh Valley’s local economy.

PA-07 will be one of the most competitive districts in the country. Bob is facing a crowded primary field, featuring career politicians and out-of-district challengers, and a well funded Republican incumbent. This entity will reach voters to share Bob’s worker first priorities to deliver the 18,000-32,000 required to win the primary and position Bob for success in the general election. 

We will be holding a presentation on February 2 at 5:00 PM over zoomto introduce you to our team, give you an insight into our strategies, and update you on the state of the race. If you are interested in attending, please rsvp to me at mailto:simone@spbstrategies.com. A zoom link for this meeting will be sent upon rsvping. Thank you and we look forward to hearing from you.

Best,
Simone

If your product is defective, sometimes it takes more to fix him than it does to try and make everyone forget about it. How do you make people forget that he stiffed his mother-in-law out of $55k? How do you make people forget that he thinks Barack Obama “sucks?” How do you make people forget that he’s a religious radical and gun nut? How do you make people forget about racist posts? It takes a lot of coin.

One way is to make sure they never see it. So tonight is a Congressional debate at Lafayette College. The street word is that “Crooksy” and his team said they would not take part if media was invited. I’m sure they’d deny it, and I have no idea why any group would want to have a debate that isn’t covered, but I trust the source that told me this. I guess if no one sees that this fire is too big for Crooksy, nobody may know.

There are people sitting in jail right now for taking $50,000 and never paying it back. Crooksy is debating for Congress having done the same thing. And he’s doing it without public scrutiny.

Sultana Launches Quixotic Primary Against Lisa Boscola

/ Rich Wilkins / 1 Comment

Earlier I told you that former Easton City Councilwoman Taiba Sultana was blaming State Senator Lisa Boscola for ICE. I said then she was going to run against Boscola in this year’s primary. Bernie O’Hare reports that she is now officially in. I’m setting her final percentage over/under at 22.5% if anyone wants to place a friendly wager. I’ll even give you +100.

The 18th District is simply not a leftist district. Yes, it’s a solidly Democratic seat, but I doubt many of us would vote for Karl Marx here. Lisa Boscola generally votes how this district’s people actually are- more conservative than Philadelphia and more liberal than Pennsyltucky. I am sure that some voters would like Senator Boscola to move left, but it isn’t really wise for the seat. If Taiba were going to run as a potential Senator in the mold of some of the Philadelphia delegation, she might even receive enough support *in the primary* to be scary, but come up short. She’s going to try and run to the left of that though. She’s also going to promise things that simply aren’t going to pass the Pennsylvania Senate, which also does have Senators like Doug Mastriano from Pennsyltucky too. This is a campaign to do nothing in Harrisburg, and it’s a campaign to represent close to no one.

Taiba is a nice person in person, though I found her campaign against Rep. Freeman in 2024 to really bother me. Insinuating that Bob Freeman is responsible for genocide anywhere is literally insane. There was also the whole petition forgery controversy in 2024 where someone signed Sultana’s petition as Senator Boscola from a totally fake address and obviously it wasn’t Senator Boscola, which was just weird. Obviously there was the arrest too, which I give her more slack for than most (People make mistakes, and while her’s was bad, there’s plenty of reasons to not support her that don’t involve judging her as a parent), but she seemed to be completely oblivious to the optics of the situation and launched an impossible State House campaign while it was ongoing. Of course there was also her continual attempts to pass a resolution from Easton City Council on Gaza, which really is not something Easton City Council is supposed to be doing. I can’t think of one argument to elect this woman in 2026. We’re going to get a steady diet of far-left rhetoric, identity politics of the cheapest grade, and personal attacks here. It’s pointless.

Lisa Boscola isn’t going to lose this race. Most voters aren’t going to take it overly seriously. Had Jon Irons run, he may have put forward a credible opposition to her, even though he would have lost too. Sultana has too many problems to answer for, and she will be forced to answer for them if she tries to make this nasty. In the end, this kind of politics just has to be stopped.

Bob “Crooksy” Brooks Was Not a Fan of Barack Obama, I Wonder Why?

/ Rich Wilkins / 7 Comments

I told you a while back about how Bob “Crooksy” Brooks had posted some racist stuff, particularly his support for a racist flag “because Colin Kaepernick doesn’t like this flag.” Look, Kaepernick has his faults, but it’s racist as hell to post a flag actual racists use it and a Black guy hates it, but I’ll chalk that up to Crooksy being ignorant. I mean, I know exactly what he was signaling to his buddies on the internet, but whatever. I also knew there was more. It’s no shock that the guy Bernard Sanders endorsed, the guy who stiffed his mother-in-law out of $55,000 (that she still hasn’t collected a dime of), the guy who is a religious fanatic, said racist shit. You just knew there would be more fun stuff to talk about.

Well, there is plenty, and we’ll start with another example of his attitudes about prominent Black people- this time, President Barack Obama. It turns out, “Crooksy” said “unfortunately he sucks” about the 44th President of the United States. On September 5th, 2012, right as President Obama was in the thick of his competitive re-election against Mitt Romney, “Crooksy” weighed in with that opinion. Today, “Crooksy” and his team would have you know that he would defend President Obama’s signature achievements (like Obamacare), which I don’t believe, but he swears so. If Obama’s actual policy achievements are worth running for Congress to defend, what exactly made President Obama “suck?” Was it that “Crooksy” actually didn’t like President Obama’s policies and won’t defend things like the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau that was created under Dodd-Frank, that he didn’t support Obamacare, President Obama’s rejuvenation of the COPS Bill to hire new cops on the street, or maybe Obama’s immigration policies? Maybe “Crooksy” was actually a MAGA Trumper until he pulled a coup to become a union leader? Or let’s be honest, could it have just been as simple as to say that “Crooksy” thought President Barack Obama “sucks” because he was a famous black guy like Colin Kaepernick? Look, I have no idea, but “Crooksy” would have you believe now he’s going to Washington as some sort of defender of President Obama’s achievements, but back then he wanted his buddies he tended bar with or whatever that he knew that President Obama “sucks.”

When a candidate runs for office, they tell you what you want to hear, because they want to win. When they were posting things 14 years before that totally contradict what they say now, but do tend to jive with the other really racist, crazy shit they were saying all the way up until they became a public figure, that is exactly who they are. A lot of Democrats won’t call out that this guy is either not a Democrat, or is a straight up return to Dixiecrat roots, because they’re afraid of angering people they want to support them. Look, whatever, I don’t really expect most of these people to have some sort of “profile in courage” moment. I get it, they need the Governor to give them that grant, they need that union to endorse them, they want the party to come campaign for them. That’s fine, like I said, most of these guys are terrified of their own shadow. Let’s call it like it is though- some of us worked for President Obama, some of us worked for the Democratic Party at that time to elect him and people who agreed with him. For some of us, that belief in the President’s values would literally come back to save our life. You can bury your head in the sand as much as you want- nominating someone who shares so few of your values that he embraces MAGA-style soft racism is total capitulation. If you’re fine with that, fine, go ahead. I’m not. I’m not going to be. I was enthusiastic about 2012 Barack Obama. Were you?

Will Democrats Lose the California Governor’s Mansion?

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

California contests a “jungle primary” for it’s offices- no Simba isn’t on the ballot- which means everyone is put on the ballot together, regardless of parties, and the top two get to run in the general election, regardless of parties. In 2016, Kamala Harris won her Senate seat in November by beating Democratic Congresswoman Loretta Sánchez, because they had finished as the top two in the primary. In 2024, Adam Schiff’s allies boosted former Dodger’s first baseman Steve Garvey, running ads calling him ultra-MAGA to insure he got all of the GOP votes, and other Democrats such as Katie Porter did not reach November, and it worked. Jungle primaries can lead to some wild results. It’s the law of the jungle.

Enter the 2026 California Governor’s race, the race to replace everyone’s favorite internet troll, Gavin Newsom (I am a fan, for the most part). It’s going badly. Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco leads with 17%. Former advisor to British Prime Minister David Cameron and Fox News commentator Steve Hilton is second with 14%. Yes, he too is Republican. They account for 31% combined in the latest poll. Former Congresswoman Katie Porter is at 11%, Congressman Eric Swallwell is at 11%, rich guy who bombed for President Tom Steyer is at 8%, former HHS Secretary and House Democratic Leadership member Xavier Becerra is at 5%, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is at 3%, State Superintendent of Instruction Tony Thurmond is at 2%. Add them all up and you have 40%, which is underwhelming, but still considerably ahead of the Republicans, but not one of these silly candidates would move on to the general election. Look, in a sane world I’d want Becerra, then maybe Thurmond (because I literally know nothing about him), then Villaraigosa (total mess, but smokes the others), but why are all of these people running? What a joke. If at least three of them don’t drop out, there’s a decent chance of two Republicans advancing, and a lock of one of them.

This field isn’t inspiring, to say the least. Losing this race in the primary would be humiliating. While I’m not a fan of the top three, the bottom three should start to exit the stage relatively soon. Imagine losing this Governor’s race during this Presidency? What a clown show.

Republican Crosswell Loses His Manager to Shapiro?

/ Rich Wilkins / 1 Comment

I got a text this morning with some news about the PA-7 Congressional primary- Republican Ryan Crosswell is losing his campaign manager to Governor Shapiro. You may remember the manager from this, so maybe you don’t think it’s a big deal, but we are now only a couple months from the primary. I don’t know this person, so there is no way to confirm it, but it would obviously change the campaign a lot if it’s true.

It may or may not be a big deal for Crosswell. He was burning some 40% of his campaign money up to this point, and probably needs to spend it since no one knows who he is. With that said, it’s more telling to me where this text says the manager is going- the Governor’s campaign. You wonder who initiated this, and if it’s just the latest attempt to try and rig this primary for Crooksy, because they fear he can’t do it himself unless he is running against a bunch of incompetent candidates? The amount of effort to create a candidate with this many flaws is remarkable to me. Why not just back one of the actual Democrats from the Lehigh Valley who wanted to run to begin with?

Julian Guridy Got Screwed, and Now We Have a Race

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

To say I think it’s unfair and stupid is an understatement. Julian Guridy got screwed. Despite the fact he clearly grew up in the town he was going to run to represent, he’s ineligible to run for the State House because of his residency- he grew up there and has lived there again for three years. Apparently because he lived in Florida for a few years as a young adult, the 90% of his life he lived here isn’t enough.

This rule is absolute bullshit, a state constitutional relic that only exists today to protect incumbent legislators from real challenges. It’s apparently easier to be eligible to run for Congress than the State House. The legislature should be working to fix this so it doesn’t happen again. This is just terrible.

So now Ana Tiburcio, a member of the Allentown School Board, will be the candidate in February’s Special Election. She almost certainly will beat Bob Smith, who has run for virtually every legislative office in the city of Allentown and only ever won the school board. That will make Tiburcio an incumbent in May’s primary, but she will not get a free pass. Erlinda Augilar sought the party nomination for the special election, though I have not seen if she plans to run in May or not. Allentown Councilwoman CeCe Gerlach definitely plans to run. This will be a highly competitive race. Much of Gerlach’s message about the party “bosses” (such a ridiculous term) trying to pick the candidate instead of the people still works, if not better now that she’s been passed over twice. Gerlach also probably has a sizable name recognition advantage over Tiburcio. While party insiders like to complain about Gerlach, I don’t see much evidence that the voting public hates her. Sure, she lost for Mayor when the story about her dropping a minor at the “tent city” homeless encampment came out close to the primary election, but even then she was within a couple of points of winning. Since then she was re-elected handily to the council. I’m not sure that a bunch of endorsements from people not in her district are going to be what sinks her, but maybe a huge investment by House Democratic leadership would get it done. That also kind of seems silly in a safe Democratic seat. If this is a real fight and isn’t just bought by Harrisburg, Gerlach just might win anyway.

All of this really doesn’t look great for the Democrats. It looks like people didn’t do their homework ahead of time and just figured they could rubber stamp their way through. Is that the truth? Of course not. Guridy had worked hard to become the choice of most of the party. Reality matters a lot less than optics. Now there is a chance that a very, very independent leftist voice will win and represent the 22nd District, an outsider to the Allentown establishment. If you can get yourself far enough away from the mess to be objective, it kind of looks like some folks walked themselves right into it.

Apparently Senator Boscola is Responsible for ICE Now.

/ Rich Wilkins / 3 Comments

State Senator Lisa Boscola is a moderate Democrat. That makes some folks mad, but she’s ultimately with the Democratic caucus on nearly every vote. We notice when she’s not because it’s rare, and because the Senate Dems are a super highly regional caucus at this point, nearly all of their members are in or near Philadelphia and Allegheny Counties, the most liberal spots in the state. The reality is that a State Senator from the Lehigh Valley really can’t always vote like a Philadelphia Democrat, they’ll lose re-election. Your options are someone like Senator Boscola, or a Republican. Choose wisely.

Fresh off of losing last year’s primary for re-election to Easton City Council, Taiba Sultana is apparently cool with losing us the seat. She attacked Boscola on a Facebook live for supporting enforcement of immigration. Yes folks, Lisa Boscola created the atmosphere for ICE today. You heard it here first.

Look, I think the current version of ICE is simply unworkable. I was for Lamont McClure’s executive order to keep them out of Northampton County’s courthouse without a warrant, and I’m for Tara Zrinski strengthening that. I also don’t think we need Easton or Bethlehem deciding they are going to put a big neon light on themselves and declare themselves a “sanctuary” city for people who are here illegally, and I don’t think a society is simply wrong for enforcing their borders and immigration laws. Are we wrong to employ an armed gestapo to terrorize people over immigration? Yes. There is a happy in-between of course, we had it for eight years under Barack Obama. He deported far more people than Trump or Biden without being cruel and inhumane doing it. We were safer because of it.

I don’t think this criticism of Boscola is random of course. Taiba ran against Bob Freeman for the state house unsuccessfully in 2024, losing by more than 50% of the vote. She’s going to try and run against Boscola. This is an even harder, worse district for her to try and win in than the House one, and it’s not going to go well for her. If she decides to run her race saying Senator Boscola is opposed to illegal immigration, she just might end up losing worse in this race than she did in 2024.