Well, we’ve reached judgment day. I’ve written about the Phillies off-season outlook a few times (Here, here, and here.) and even said before the season was over that a breakup could be in order. Over the next three or four days, we will see if that indeed happens. Going in, I have the Phillies approximate payroll as is at $238,098,771, just a few million below the luxury tax. Their 40 man roster has lost two (Robert and Mercado) since I last wrote, and gained one (OF Pedro Leon, from the Astros AAA roster) and now sits at 32.

There are four major free agents from the Phillies roster to watch. Kyle Schwarber is the biggest, after hitting 56 homers in 2025, and the expectation is he will get five years and somewhere between $135 and $150 million ($27 to $30 million a year). J.T. Realmuto may be the most urgent, just because of the lack of catchers even near his level, and he is expected to command two years and somewhere around $25 million total ($12.5 million-ish a year). Ranger Suarez is probably the one it will hurt the most to leave, and he’s probably looking at six years and around $160 million total ($26-27 million a year). Finally there’s Harrison Bader, who was a key pick up at the deadline to the Phillies taking off and running away from the Mets. He is expected to get two to three years in the $12 millionish a year range.

The Phillies also seem to be looking to trade away a few guys. Obviously on top of the list is Nick Castellanos and his $20 million for one more year, which the Phillies are essentially trying to just dump a few million of to whoever will take it (Maybe $2-5 million range in savings). Then there’s Taijuan Walker, who they may or may not actually want to trade him and his $18 million salary for this last season of his deal, which could actually make him an affordable, attractive option to a lot of teams if the Phillies will pay him down to the $8-10 million range. Matt Strahm ($7.5 million), Tanner Banks ($1.2 million), and Jose Alvarado ($9 million) are all possible trade pieces and all would have pretty considerable value to other teams. Alec Bohm ($10.3 million) is definitely available in the final year of his arbitration control, as could possibly be Bryson Stott ($5.8 million) or Brandon Marsh ($4.5 million). Both back-up catchers, Rafael Marchan ($1 million) and Garrett Stubbs ($925,000) are probably available once the Phillies address the starting catcher position. I would call lit a long shot that the Phillies would trade Jesus Luzardo ($10.4 million), but he is in a walk year now and we’re not hearing a whole lot about an extension yet (This makes a lot more sense if they somehow re-sign Suarez). Top prospect Andrew Painter, Aidan Miller, and Justin Crawford have not been available, and probably only are in a mega blockbuster (Think Skubal, or even Skenes here).

The Phillies have some definite needs going into these meetings. If not Schwarber, they will need a major power bat either in the outfield or to DH. Their outfield needs a makeover either way. Second base and third base could be upgraded on for sure. They need a starting catcher. They absolutely need another right-handed reliever to pitch late in games. Their rotation is probably fine, but there are question marks you’d like to sure up.

Here’s what I’d like to see:

• At least one major bat signing. Yes, this can mean Kyle Schwarber and I’ll be happy if it is. I would be completely fine with it being Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger, Alex Bregman, or even Eugenio Suarez. Look, Schwarber was a great signing and a fan favorite in Philly but he’s 32, he only can play DH, and he’s another lefty in a line-up full of lefties. If they bring him back, they need to add some right-handed bats elsewhere to balance this line-up out better. Bellinger, Bregman, and Tucker all profile a little better over the life of a five year deal, and Suarez is said to only be seeking a three year deal. The Phillies absolutely need one of these guys though.
• They must leave with a catcher. I was not as crazy about Harry Ford (traded from Seattle to DC) as others, as his defense and power have real question marks, and I hated the price (five years of a controllable lefty reliever are nice). The Phillies either need to re-sign Realmuto or get creative on the trade market and find a two to three year solution fast. Realmuto’s price doesn’t sound crazy and the Phillies might be well advised to just pay it. Perhaps once you do, you look around for more help at the catcher position that is younger.
• They need to trade for at least one more offensive upgrade. With lefty relievers, a starting pitcher(or more?), and a few 20-something position players on their roster available to move, let alone prospects, the Phillies have the fire power to bring in a right-handed bat somewhere that represents an upgrade, regardless of what happens with Schwarber. Jarren Duran is probably at the top of this list, but he’s not the only guy available out there. They can be an infielder or outfielder, either way the Phillies just need a hitter who deepens their lineup and offers some protection for their big bats. Basically someone to do what Castellanos didn’t.
• Whether they trade for (preferable, probably) or sign (probably a rough market) a right handed arm to pitch late in games, they need someone to team with Kerkering as a right-handed set-up man. A bullpen with whoever the addition is, Kerkering, and two of Alvarado, Strahm, and Banks would look very good for the regular season.
• Figure out a way on Ranger Suarez. Yes, I know, it’s not a “need.” But it is. You have no idea what will actually happen with Wheeler yet. Nola is a question mark after the worst year of his career, and five seasons ahead on his contract. Luzardo is in a walk year, and you probably need to re-sign him regardless. Painter hasn’t thrown an MLB pitch yet and may start the year in AAA. Walker is what he is, which is serviceable but far from what you want pitching a big game. Ranger Suarez is who he is at this point, a very reliable playoff rotation arm that isn’t quite as durable as you hope for, but is clutch when you need it. Move the money around and make it happen.

They’re not going to get all of this done here and now. Last year they acquired Luzardo right before Christmas. They also should not be afraid to throw Crawford into the line-up opening day to fill one line-up spot, and Aidan Miller later down the road in the season at either second or third. Now is the time to be a bit daring with what you can do with Bohm, Stott, and possibly even Marsh (though a .280 hitter in the outfield is a nice piece), as they have been unwilling to extend any of them so far. There is no sense holding them until free agency and letting them walk, the Phillies aren’t getting compensatory first round picks when they lose them.

Running it back is not an option. I will not be super excited if all they do is bring back players who were here in 2025. They have tried the group as is for four years, and they have not had a parade down Broad Street yet.