The Phillies, the Dodgers, Bichette, and MLB’s Future

January 18, 2026 / Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

It was kind of a tough week for a lot of Phillies fans, even if some of us are less mad than others. First, Ranger Suarez left for Boston. That was sort of a known for a while (at least that he’s probably leaving), but is still easily the biggest blow to the Phillies roster this offseason. Ranger broke out as a closer in 2021, and then as the #3 starter on the 2022 NL Champions. He famously got the last out of the 2022 NLCS (See above) and threw a shut out in game three of the World Series that year. He made the All-Star game in 2024. More than anything, he was dependable. You were going to get almost exactly 25 or 26 starts a season, his ERA would be in the threes, and he’d be money in the playoffs (other than 2023’s game seven). The Phillies should be able to recover from this loss between the returning Zack Wheeler and the arriving Andrew Painter, but shoulds aren’t assured. This one definitely hurts them and removes a fan favorite.

Now that we have gone through that, let’s get to what transpired this week and really has people up in arms. The Dodgers paid a literally absurd $60 million a year to Kyle Tucker, a very good player, but not nearly on the level of Judge, Ohtani, or Soto, even at his best. Hell, it’s a literal absurdity that this guy is going to make double Bryce Harper this season (actually more), but the Dodgers can do that, and they do. They have a gigantic market, the second largest city in America and the largest county by a lot, and their TV deal is a monstrosity. It also really doesn’t hurt that back in the 2011-2012 era when the McCourt family owned the team and was in bankruptcy, MLB created a sweetheart agreement with them that shielded most of their TV revenue from the revenue sharing agreement that governs other big markets, like their neighboring Angels, the New York teams, Philly, Chicago, Boston, and the San Francisco Giants. The deal made total sense at the time and was the right thing to do (MLB was never going to let the Dodgers go under). To the credit of the Dodgers ownership, they put the extra money they make directly back into signing players, which is what fans should want. With all of that said, that agreement is no long necessary to the survival of the Dodgers. It is long past time for MLB to wrap the sweetheart agreement up, or let the other big markets play under the same sweetheart deal for the duration of the Dodgers deal. The Dodgers aren’t cheating or even doing anything they shouldn’t, but it’s not a fair or equal system for even the other big spenders.

I mostly mention the Dodgers here because their Tucker deal set off dominoes that did in fact impact the Phillies. Man-child Mets owner Steve Cohen was so shocked that the best player on the market didn’t want his money (like Alonso and Diaz, which is telling), that he not only pivoted to his next target, he made him an offer that was 150% of his existing best offer, annually, up to that point. It looked like Bo Bichette was coming to Philadelphia as late as Friday morning, and had a seven year, $200 million ($28 million a year) offer in hand, but Cohen turned around and gave a player that really doesn’t even fit on his roster three years and $126 million ($42 million a year). While it’s true they had talked to Bichette before that, the offer came in after being rejected by Tucker, and appears to have been negotiating against himself- no one else even considered offering Bichette $42 million a year. Now, I’m not going to tell you Bichette isn’t good, or that I didn’t want him in Philly, that’s childish, however I’m going to tell you that I would have rioted if the Phillies paid him anything near that. Bichette was smart to accept the wild overpay from the Mets, even if it means he probably won’t win a championship for a bit. If he plays out the whole contract, he would be 30 years old and only need a $74 million deal to match the total of what the Phillies offered him. He’s now going to crush $200 million in free agency earnings and be set up for life. Good for him, I don’t blame him at all.

None of this was good for baseball. The Dodgers showed us in 2025 that they could literally limit each of their pitchers innings and sleep walk to 90 plus wins and a spot in the postseason, and signing Tucker and Diaz this offseason only reinforces that. By doing what they did, the Dodgers and Mets are only increasing the likelihood of a lockout after the 2026 season, giving the small market owners more leverage to call for salary caps or increased revenue sharing, things I absolutely hate because they reward shitty owners (looking at you Pirates and Athletics). Salary caps don’t work. The NHL’s salary cap wrecked the sport. Even basic trades are nearly impossible in the NBA because of the salary cap. People celebrate the NFL salary cap for “creating parity,” but tell that to continuously shitty franchises in Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dallas, and Las Vegas that turnout huge profits each year. The NFL salary cap has just watered down what a great team is. Now we’re probably going to have a lockout because owners won’t even be able to agree to what they want, and even if they do, the players will never go for that. Sure, Dodgers fans can say “cry harder” about it, but what’s the point of having a dynasty if the sport ends up skipping a year or two because of it?

If I ran MLB, I would make a few simple fixes that would even out a lot of these problems without a hard cap or lockout.

Make deferments of pay count 100% against the luxury tax now. This one is pretty simple and would eliminate deals like Shohei Ohtani’s giving teams that are rich and good a windfall of cash to spend on other players.
Set a salary floor. Yes, I really don’t want to see the Athletics owner put a slop product out on the field and pocket tons of cash because fans like me will travel to Vegas to watch our team on the road. All of these teams bring in enough revenue to pay competitive players. Right now there are a half dozen to dozen cities in the league that aren’t even making a bad faith attempt to win games. That is bad for the league on every level. Every owner is rich. If the burden of trying is too much for you, sell.
Subject all media revenue to revenue sharing for every team. Yes, I’m looking at you, Los Angeles. No more sweetheart deals, ever. Again, since we’re going to make small market owners spend to at least a bare minimum now, I think you sweeten the revenue sharing agreement for them as well.
Incentivize teams to re-sign their own star players. I think every dollar spent on someone else’s free agents should count against the luxury tax number. Every dollar on your own guys? Perhaps if Pittsburgh were extending Paul Skenes, that could count at a reduced rate against the tax. 90%? 85%? You can figure out the number. Make it more appealing for small market teams to keep good teams together though when they build them. Hell, this is even good for big market teams. If Kyle Schwarber only was a 90% hit against the tax, the Phillies would have had more money to spend this offseason. I’d even go so far as to incentivize a team more to continuously re-sign homegrown players they keep throughout their careers.
Institute an international draft. I think we’re almost universally tired of seeing players from Asia pick the same two or three teams. The situation in Latin America has improved dramatically with caps on what teams can spend there, but it’s still all relative to how your franchise wishes to use it. I’ve never really seen a good reason why international players aren’t subject to a draft system, even if it were like the Rule 5 draft or waiver wire, that would allow every market a chance to tap into some of the global talent. Basically international players can still choose to sign with teams who are already good, and make the rich richer. Spread that talent out.
Tier penalties for signing players who receive a qualifying offer. There are teams who simply can’t afford to sign a player who received a qualifying offer, because they can’t afford to lose draft picks on the first two days. What if teams in the bottom third of the standings the season before could sign players without losing their picks? This would be quite an incentive to go out and try to compete, especially since we’d now have a salary floor.
Stiffen luxury tax penalties for repeat offenders in higher tiers. Take first round picks in both the domestic and international drafts and make new signings count 110% on the luxury tax for other teams’ free agents. Give them no compensation for losing a player with a qualifying offer. You can make it hurt enough that they’ll think about it. 29 teams have a budget as is, the tax on it’s own has an impact.

These are just a few ideas to try and bring competitive balance to the league. Look, we all know some NBA teams just make paper transactions to meet the salary minimum, and some of these owners will try to do that. We also know there are teams like Washington with huge markets and rich owners who aren’t even faking that they want to win right now, who would just do the bare minimum until they think they can win. At least under this system you would be preventing them from pocketing as much cash.

Now, so back to my Phillies. They did re-sign J.T. Realmuto this week for three years and $45 million. Technically when that becomes official they will have 41 players on the 40 man roster (and Justin Crawford will still need a spot), so someone will have to come off soon. This puts the current projected payroll at $316,780,437 for 2026. My guess is they will try to shop Garrett Stubbs or Rafael Marchan, as both catchers are out of options and one will have to clear waivers when they don’t make the team. Nick Castellanos is obviously a candidate to go now too, and with a lack of right handed hitting outfield and DH options left, he should have some market if the Phillies are willing to eat at least $15 million to move him. With that said, if we are not considering the clubhouse issues, Castellanos wouldn’t be the worst right-handed platoon partner with Brandon Marsh in left (Trust me, they aren’t considering it). Taijuan Walker and his $18,000,000 salary is a candidate to go, and the Phillies could probably move at least $8-10,000,000 of his money off the books now if they wanted. Given the loss of Ranger though, the rotation is a bit light and probably could use him around for depth. Of course, Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh are all potential trade pieces yet, particularly if the Phillies make any more free agency moves. The Phillies could use another depth pitcher, a right handed bat to hit behind Harper, and if we’re going with Marsh in left, perhaps an upgrade right-handed platoon partner.

The market is not dead yet either. Eugenio Suarez seems like the most straight forward offensive upgrade available. He’s right handed, he plays third base, and he hit 49 homers a year ago. He does strike out a lot, his defense isn’t good, and he’s old. If he can be had on a two year deal, I would be less than shocked if the Phillies paid him $25 million a year. Look, they were offering Bichette $28 million and Realmuto $12 million a year as of Friday morning, so Suarez for $25 million and Realmuto for $15 million fits exactly into the financial footprint. It also makes trading Bohm and his $10.2 million one year salary a pretty straight forward salary dump without a particular need in what you get back. Suarez is flawed in plenty of ways, and you can question if you want to sign him and put Aidan Miller at second if and when he arrives, but he’s a pretty straight forward move. He’d also be the best cleanup option the Phillies have had since Ryan Howard’s prime.

Of course there is also Cody Bellinger. The fit here is a little less obvious, as while Bellinger was probably only second to really Tucker on this market, he’s left handed and the Phillies have plenty of that. Of course, if they signed Bellinger, he’d probably replace left-handed hitting Brandon Marsh, so he doesn’t really make things worse. Bellinger can play any outfield spot, hits for power, and would probably mash in the Phillies ballpark. The Phillies could probably offer him the exact same seven year, $200 million deal they offered Bichette and get him too, as he is reportedly sticking to seven years in his talks with the Yankees. Do I love that deal with him? Look, I think he has a really good four years in front of him, I’d be fine with him at five, but those last two years will probably be ugly. Even so, the Phillies window is realistically three years with this group, so what if you eat a few bad years after that. Sure, he and Harper are both lefties, but both can hit lefties, so I don’t mind them hitting back to back. Now, it’s true that if you pay him $28-30 million, he and Realmuto are more expensive than they seemed to be willing to go before, but it would also open up Marsh for a trade that would even things back out. I get why some people don’t love this idea, but Bellinger is a great player and could be a decent fit for the Phillies if they want.

I also wouldn’t count out that they decide to just bring back Harrison Bader and role the dice with four starting outfielders on the opening day roster, playing whoever the hot hand is at any given time. In fact, I don’t really hate this at all. A two year or even three year deal around $12 million a year with Bader would free up some cash for the Phillies to even go out and look for another starting pitcher, perhaps an older guy that could give you 20 good starts or a swing man, and make trading Walker plausible again. I definitely wouldn’t be mad at that.

Somehow, despite all that happened, a lot more probably will happen in baseball over the next month. That’s what makes it fun though- scrolling twitter and reading all the rage tweets from people when the Dodgers land Peralta, or Phillies fans lamenting the team being “cheap” for not giving an infielder who has never hit 30 homers and has no position more money than Aaron Judge to play here this year. What would life be without this?

Can the Phillies Make Bichette (Or Any Major Signing) Work?

January 14, 2026January 14, 2026 / Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

By my count, the Phillies payroll is around $302.7 million for 2026 currently, and that’s before you add on any luxury tax. They are just under a million from hitting the next tier of luxury tax, which is to say their next signing will literally cost them dollar for dollar whatever they spend. They also have a full 40 man roster currently and would have to drop someone to add anyone. Despite all of that, they almost certainly will make another move, regardless of who it is. Their roster is simply not quite as good as the Dodgers, and literally lacks a starting catcher.

The move that I and every other Phillies fan with a pulse wants is Bo Bichette. He’s right handed, he’s going to be an upgrade offensively at either of second or third base, he’s young, and yes, he’s actually good. Of course, it’s not necessarily going to be easy to get him- some of the other big spenders on the chart above also want him. He’s going to require years, and he’s going to require dollars. Probably eight to ten years for the Phillies to close the deal, and the dollars probably start around Trea Turner’s $27.273 million as a floor and move upward from there. If he’s an eight year deal at $30 million a year, at least in 2026 he’s actually costing $60 million unless the Phillies can shed enough salary to offset it.

That’s of course only one move. They need a catcher. They probably should be trying to bring back Ranger Suarez. Being conservative here, a late off-season spending spree on Bichette, Realmuto, and Suarez would probably cost $65-70 million. The Phillies could go for less expensive catching and pitching options and I wouldn’t be that mad, but you’re still talking about adding $40 million, which is actually $80 million. That’s a lot.

For this reason, there are some folks very skeptical that the Phillies can do any of this, let alone will. There’s some truth to their arguments, but I think the Phillies have already answered this, at least to a point. Back in December the Phillies offered J.T. Realmuto a contract that was reportedly somewhere near two years at $15 million a year. That money would have taken them over the next luxury tax threshold and cost them an actual $30 million this year. Assuming those numbers and reports are true, we know they were at least willing to go that far.

Let’s assume for a moment the Phillies would go a different direction than paying Realmuto and Suarez top market dollar. Let’s just start with a Bichette signing at $30 million and work from there (obviously I think the Phillies will try to buy that number down with years, but bare with me). One would assume that the Phillies will obviously try and move Nick Castellanos, but that’s likely only going to net a few million. Let’s guess $2 million for argument’s sake. They could put Taijuan Walker on the market, and I bet they would be able to get out of a portion of his contract, somewhere between $8 million and $10 million. If the Phillies moved those two and saved $10 million (for argument’s sake, again), now the Bichette signing is more like $40 million for this year, instead of $60 million post-tax, and the only issue is being a bit light on starting pitching until Zack Wheeler returns. It’s at least a start, and only about $10 million more expensive than the reported Realmuto deal would have been.

The obvious elephant in the room then is that the Phillies probably would be forced into a decision of who to keep between Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh. The general group thinking is Alec Bohm and his $10.2 million salary go- he makes the most, it’s a walk year, and the Phillies have kind of grown impatient with him. On the contrary though, he’s a right handed bat, you really are only trying to man third base until Aidan Miller is ready later this season or next, and he probably gets you the least back as a rental (the others have two years left). Obviously if you did move Bohm’s salary along with Castellanos and Walker, you’d basically cut the impact of the Bichette deal down to $10 million or less in taxable money, or less than you originally offered Realmuto. You could go bargain shopping then at catcher and getting a fifth starter, and probably come out right around what you originally planned to spend. That’s of course assuming you don’t fill one or two of these needs moving Bohm, Walker, and Castellanos.

There is an argument to deal at least one of Stott and Marsh though instead, and others have already made some of the arguments very well. It’s worth noting that under the assumption the Phillies get Bichette, Boston does not. Boston is actively seeking infield help up the middle and probably now at third base. Bryson Stott would probably have a ton of appeal to them, as they could move him back to shortstop and bump Trevor Story over to second, and have a really good defensive tandem up the middle. Boston could also want Bohm, or even Edmundo Sosa, and the Phillies could get out from under a lot of money if they somehow flipped any two of them. Boston is also a team that has a surplus of outfielders. The obvious name everyone will scream is Jarren Duran, but there will be a competitive market for him, and they have others too. What if the Phillies could pull off a move like that though? The market on Stott would be very healthy (Yankees? Angels?), and the Phillies could fill another big need by moving him. If they were to get a right-handed hitting starting corner outfielder, it would make Marsh available on the market then as well. Brandon Marsh is coming off of a very nice season and could very well land the Phillies back a catcher, a back end starting pitcher, or utility player as part of the package. Stott and Marsh together will make $11.1 million, or $900k more than Bohm, which would even further negate the impact of the Bichette signing on the luxury tax.

All of these are hypotheticals, and trades move slower than a lot of fans of baseball like. I’m not really sitting here saying that the answer is to trade Stott to Boston for an outfielder and turn around and trade Marsh for a starting catcher, while signing Bichette, trading Walker and Castellanos, and bringing in another arm. I’m mostly saying there are totally plausible ways though for the Phillies to afford Bichette and possibly even another player or two while staying somewhat within range of the budget they had set for themselves before. The presumption that signing Bichette is a $60 million cost this season sort of presumes they can do nothing between now and next off-season when they get hit with the bill. As I see it, the Phillies have multiple ways to re-tool their roster and stay somewhat close to budget. As for the details of those pathways, Dombrowski should be working on them now, so he can put his best offer forward to Bichette.

Phillies and Hall-of-Fame Update

January 12, 2026 / Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

The Phillies reportedly met with Bo Bichette today. I don’t know if they planned to be in this position from the start or not, but here they are- Bichette is the clear best choice of all the offensive players on the market for the Phillies at this point. The only players who might be better, Tucker and Bellinger, are left handed. Bregman is gone. Eugenio Suarez is good, but considerably older. Okamoto and Murakami went elsewhere. Bichette might have always been the best option, given his age, what side of the plate he hits from, his potential positions, and how good of a player he is. Bichette is the guy the Phillies need right now.

The Phillies have not moved one dime of salary yet this off-season, and probably won’t until after Bichette is off the market and teams know what they need. Castellanos ($20 million), Walker ($18 million), Bohm ($10.2 million), Stott ($5.9 million), Marsh ($5.2 million), and Sosa ($4.4 million) are all still here, despite varying degrees of markets probably available. In fact, the Phillies payroll sits at a projected $302,705,437, including pre-arbitration contracts, deferment money from past contracts, player benefits, minor league payroll, bonus pool money, and all settled contracts. Bichette will have a very active market of big market teams interested in his services. Given that Bregman got $35 million a year for the next five years, it’s not unfair to think Bichette will get $30 million a year for the next ten, or damn close to it. Think of Trea Turner’s $27.273 million a year as a baseline here. The Phillies will also still need to do something about catcher and would really like to bring back Ranger Suarez. In other words, if Bichette is going to happen, expect a lot of creativity to happen fast.

Expect the Phillies to try to dump as much of Castellanos, Walker, and Bohm’s salary fast as they can. Of course, that is relative to them signing Bichette first. They are probably lining up the moving parts even as they figure out what they are able to offer to Bichette. Either this will be a quiet ending to an off-season that ultimately ends up largely with them running it back, or it will be a franchise altering roster shakeup that will resonate for years to come.

No big deal though.

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Chase Utley is apparently gaining steam in Hall-of-Fame voting. Look, I’ll believe it when I see it. Each year he has wildly over performed his actual vote share among voters who release their ballot publicly when they vote. Those voters tend to be younger and tend to be more driven by advanced metrics, the two characteristics that coincide closest with voting for Utley. As of the last I read, he needs about 71% of all the remaining ballots to be for him to get in this year. I do not think he will.

Utley is a polarizing Hall of Fame candidate for a lot of reasons, but I do expect him to get in someday. I’m not sure he should, and I would vote for Jimmy Rollins first (I find analytics great for predicting future performance and awful for judging the final product at the end of their career), but the group think around baseball’s Hall voting is changing. Career milestone numbers and awards are being largely cast aside in favor of more in depth analytics and consideration of a player’s peak years in the league. Of course this new bias is largely driven by voters who view WAR (wins above replacement) as one of the better ways to judge a player, so guys with an even better peak five seasons (Ryan Howard), who played at a position with more elite offensive players (first base, outfield), and had less defensive value than middle infielders aren’t getting as much benefit here. I’d definitely have been a “no” on Utley two or three years ago, his peak just wasn’t enough for me. My mind is opening to this new way of thinking though, provided we take a longer look at a lot of other players who got passed by on the ballot.

Utley getting in will end up being really good for his 2008 teammates in the end. If Utley’s five year peak is enough to put him into the Hall, Ryan Howard’s also will now have a lot better chance than a lot of us would have thought when his career ended. Jimmy Rollins case is more based on his career milestone numbers (all time hits leader for his team, over 2,000) and his hardware (the MVP, gold gloves, All-Star Games, and ring), but I am not sure future veterans committees would pass over Jimmy if Chase is in. And if we’re putting in both, I’m suddenly a lot more alright with either one of them individually.

The Latest on the Phillies Off-Season

December 24, 2025December 24, 2025 / Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Well, the Phillies were busy last week. Not busy, as in signing a major bat, or trading away someone from last year’s lineup, or even signing a starting pitcher. No, they were busy beginning to save some money and re-making the bullpen. Gone is Matt Strahm. In are Jonathan Bowlan, Kyle Backhus, and Zach Pop. The Phillies will have a very lively battle for spots in the bullpen.

There’s been a lot of talk about why Strahm is gone, but most of it is stupid talk. Strahm will make $7,500,000 this coming season. Strahm was set to be between the 4th and 6th option out of the bullpen. This means he wasn’t going to pitch in all high leverage situations. It also means paying him made little to no sense when they lack a starting catcher and anyone who could provide viable protection for their first three hitters from the cleanup spot. In short, it was an obvious need for a team that needs more, and is in the third level of the luxury tax.

Here’s a look at the roster now, as opposed to last week:

Catcher- Rafael Marchan ($1,000,000) and Garrett Stubbs ($925,000). $1,925,000

Infield- Bryce Harper- 1B ($25,384,615), Bryson Stott- 2B ($5,800,000), Trea Turner- SS ($27,272,727), Alec Bohm- 3B ($10,300,000), Edmundo Sosa- Utility Man ($3,900,000), and Otto Kemp ($820,000). $73,477,342

Outfield- Adolis Garcia- RF ($10,000,000), Justin Crawford- CF ($820,000, not yet on the roster), Brandon Marsh- LF ($4,500,000), and Johan Rojas ($820,000). $16,140,000

Designated Hitter- Kyle Schwarber ($30,000,000). $30,000,000

Starting Rotation– Cristopher Sanchez- LHP ($5,625,000), Zack Wheeler- RHP ($42,000,000), Jesus Luzardo- LHP ($10,400,000), Aaron Nola- RHP ($24,571,429), and Taijuan Walker- RHP ($18,000,000). $100,596,429

Bullpen– Jhoan Duran- RRP ($7,600,000), Jose Alvarado- LRP ($9,000,000), Brad Keller- RRP ($11,000,000), Orion Kerkering- RRP ($820,000), Tanner Banks- LRP ($1,200,000), Jonathan Bowlan- RRP ($820,000), Zach McCambley– RRP ($820,000), and Zach Pop- RRP ($820,000). $40,260,000

Untraded Contract- Nick Castellanos ($20,000,000). $20,000,000

Additional 40 man roster players (All are pro-rated $820,000 deals)– Kyle Backhus- LRP, Jean Cabrera- RSP, Moises Chase- RSP, Yoniel Curet– RSP, Nolan Hoffman- RRP, Seth Johnson- RRP, Max Lazar- RRP, Alex McFarlane- RSP, Andrew Painter- RSP, Alan Rangel- RSP, Pedro Leon- OF, Gabriel Rincones- OF, Weston Wilson- OF

This leaves the Phillies with 39 players on the roster at a cost of $282,398,771. Weston Wilson, Zach Pop, Jonathan Bowlan, Rafael Marchan, Garrett Stubbs, and of course Zach McCambley are bubble players with no options to go to the minors right now, so they would lose their 40 man spot if they don’t make the team. Moises Chase will go immediately on the 60 day IL, while recovering from Tommy John, so a spot will open at the end of Spring Training on the roster. Zack Wheeler will begin the season on the IL, but it’s questionable which list. By my count, that means the Phillies only have one 40 man spot to hand out right now, but can sign more players on minor league deals to come to camp and compete, as they will probably have one or two spots available.

The obvious issues are there right now- they don’t have a starting catcher, their rotation has a serious lack of depth, and they still don’t have a cleanup hitter. I probably would not have given Pop a guaranteed deal and roster spot given all of that, but you almost certainly need more relievers than you think. I don’t see many ways the Phillies can re-sign JT Realmuto AND add a middle of the order bat right now, let alone go sign Imai or Ranger Suarez to join this rotation. Yes, you’re going to get rid of Castellanos and at least $820,000 of salary almost assuredly, but that doesn’t change much. You need someone to take on Castellanos and something like $5 million of his salary to really free up much room, but the spot alone would be nice. It would be nice to trade Taijuan Walker and free up $8-10 million of his $18 million salary, but given the depth issues in the rotation, that’s not feasible. Unless there is payroll flexibility for a specific player (Probably Imai or Okamoto, given the Phillies stated desire to get into the Japanese player market), you really only have flexibility to make one big splash signing. If you want Bichette or Bregman, you probably can’t have JT or another starter, and you almost certainly need to move at least one of Bohm and Stott, if not both. There may be a world where you can do Okamoto and Realmuto both, given what Murakami ended up getting in the end, but even there you will need sign off from John Middleton to take the payroll up a bit, and you still have to move Bohm to do it.

What would I do? I’d go all in on one of Bichette/Bregman/Okamoto/Eugenio Suarez, try to dump Bohm, Stott, Castellanos, and maybe even Walker to free up the money, and pivot off of Realmuto to a cheaper catching option. I’d rather have Realmuto back, but if a guy with a .700 OPS, who gets most of his current value from his defense, is going to hold you hostage for a third year that you know won’t be ideal, just sign the best defensive catcher on the market (or trade for one), and bite the bullet that you’ll pick up the offense elsewhere. Hopefully they can still work a deal out with Realmuto and find a few bucks of savings somewhere else to pick up one more bat. I just am less and less hopeful for that.

An Updated Look at the Phillies Off-Season

December 17, 2025 / Rich Wilkins / 2 Comments

The Winter meetings are over. The Phillies have what appears to be an outfield. The core of their lineup- Harper, Schwarber, and Turner- is sticking around together for the next five years. They have built a very strong bullpen, probably an over abundance of quality arms there even. The Phillies have 37 players now on the 40 man roster, and a current projected payroll of $288,258,771. I am including all guaranteed contracts, projected arbitration numbers from MLBTradeRumors.com, and filling in currently unfilled roster spots with young players on the 40 man roster.

Here’s a look at the current projected 26 man roster.

Catcher- Rafael Marchan ($1,000,000) and Garrett Stubbs ($925,000). $1,925,000

Outfield- Adolis Garcia- RF ($10,000,000), Justin Crawford- CF ($820,000, not yet on the roster), Brandon Marsh- LF ($4,500,000), and Johan Rojas ($820,000). $16,140,000

Designated Hitter- Kyle Schwarber ($30,000,000). $30,000,000

Bullpen– Jhoan Duran- RRP ($7,600,000), Jose Alvarado- LRP ($9,000,000), Brad Keller- RRP ($11,000,000), Matt Strahm- LRP ($7,500,000), Orion Kerkering- RRP ($820,000), Tanner Banks- LRP ($1,200,000), Zach McCambley– RRP ($820,000), and Max Lazar- RRP ($820,000). $46,120,000

Untraded Contract- Nick Castellanos ($20,000,000). $20,000,000

Additional 40 man roster players (All are pro-rated $820,000 deals)– Jean Cabrera- RSP, Moises Chase- RSP, Yoniel Curet– RSP, Nolan Hoffman- RRP, Seth Johnson- RRP, Alex McFarlane- RSP, Andrew Painter- RSP, Alan Rangel- RSP, Pedro Leon- OF, Gabriel Rincones- OF, Weston Wilson- OF

So there are a number of additions here, some that are exciting, some that are just upgrades. Obviously with Schwarber back, the DH spot is filled and the Phillies have two feared home run threats from the left side. Garcia had a season roughly equivalent to Castellanos offensively, but he was a considerably better defensive outfielder, so he represents an upgrade- even if another one year, reclamation project has serious shades of Max Kepler written on it. The signing of Brad Keller gives the Phillies a formidable front six in their bullpen to shut down games behind a very talented starting pitching group. McCambley comes over from Miami, via the Rule 5 draft, coming off of his best season in the minors for AAA Jacksonville, featuring a wipeout slider that generates a lot of swing and miss. The Phillies also snagged Yoniel Curet from Tampa Bay after he was a 40 man roster casualty. At 24, with a very live arm, he could turn into a starter or reliever with some tweaks and work. The Phillies also signed Bryse Wilson to a minor league deal as a potential swing man.

So with three open 40 man spots, what’s next? The obvious glaring, immediate need is a catcher. The Phillies made an offer to J.T. Realmuto last week according to reports, and he hasn’t signed yet. I’m guessing they offered him two years and he wants three. They certainly could wait him out and hope he comes back, which is probably the best case scenario. They could also search the trade market and see if there’s a catcher who comes at a lower price than the estimated $12-15 million a year that Realmuto is likely to get.

They do need to trade Nick Castellanos. He now has no real purpose on this roster and needs a fresh start. If the Phillies are willing to eat enough money, I do think teams like Cleveland, Miami, and St. Louis could be destinations for him to go serve as a fourth outfielder and DH option for them. There’s not really any urgency to get that done though, at least not yet.

Zack Wheeler is going to begin the season rehabbing, and I don’t think the Phillies can really afford to just roll with Walker and Painter potentially ending up making over 20 starts each this season. Walker is fine as a fifth starter or swing man, and the Phillies could eat some of his money to send him to a team looking for a more affordable guy to play that role. There is a lot of smoke to the rumors of the Phillies having interest in Tatsuya Imai, though reports today say the Cubs and Yankees are likely to be finalists for the Japanese ace as well. Of course there is Ranger Suarez as well, but the Phillies are unlikely to meet his market in the $25-30 million range unless they move other money off the books. Even so, the Phillies should still be talking to him.

Dave Dombrowski says the Phillies outfield is probably done for now. I tend to believe him. Bellinger and Tucker are the big impact outfield bats still available, and both are left handed. If things stay as is, Garcia will be in right, Crawford in center, and Marsh in left, with Rojas serving as the fourth outfielder. The Phillies will probably want a right-handed option to play against lefties for Marsh, and the internal candidates are Otto Kemp, Weston Wilson, Edmundo Sosa, and Pedro Leon (I suppose you could argue for Castellanos too since you’re going to pay him anyway, but that ship has sailed). I wouldn’t be shocked if the Phillies kick the tires on a Rob Refsnyder type of option as well. He and Marsh would form an ideal platoon and allow the Phillies to stash Rojas away in AAA for another year. I also would not totally dismiss a reunion with Harrison Bader yet. The Phillies could take him back later in the off-season on a shorter deal, move Crawford over to left for now, and trade Marsh to teams looking for a left handed outfield option. While the Phillies clearly like Marsh, they have not liked him enough to extend him yet, and only control him for two more seasons.

If there were to be an area of the team where there could still be major upheaval, I would say it is in the infield. There are still some impact free agents who don’t hit from the left side. Alex Bregman could be a great fit, the question is how much money and how long of a deal he wants, and if the Phillies can move enough money off the books to even consider it. I’d say it’s possible, but it’s a long shot. Eugenio Suarez is projected to get three years and roughly $70-75 million total, a number more in line with what the Phillies would probably like, but they may be weary of doing so at his age (34). Kazuma Okamoto, the 29 year old Japanese slugger who primarily (but not exclusively) plays third base is very intriguing, and seems to be a low risk, high reward option, but his market seems very uncertain between now and the end of his posting period on January 4th. 25 year old Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami is probably the most intriguing option out of the third base crowd, with his prodigious power and complaints about his struggles against high velocity. His market seems even less certain than Okamoto’s. Bo Bichette is a less obvious fit as a shortstop, but he could probably slot in at second or third and provide the major right handed bat the Phillies desire. He’s going to cost a lot though. Nolan Arrenado doesn’t seem like a fit unless the Phillies have another major move somewhere else, and are getting him in a trade involving Castellanos and Bohm.

Even if the Phillies sign none of those infielders, I would still guess that Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott can be had in a trade for the right price. The Phillies top offensive prospect, Aidan Miller, ended the season in AAA. He’s probably not going to be the shortstop in Philly, so he’s either going to second or third at some point this season. Bohm is in his walk year and there are no signs of him being extended, hence all the interest in third basemen on the market. Stott has two more years of control, but also doesn’t seem to be in line for an extension, and Miller could be ready to play his way into that spot at any time. There’s also all of the Ketel Marie rumors, and while I think he’s really good, he’s 32 and makes $19.4 million for the next five years (six if he opts into the $11.5 million final year).

I don’t think the Phillies off-season is nearly done, and so far I think I approve overall of it. Garcia doesn’t blow me away as an outfield signing, but an outfield that ends up consisting of him, Crawford, and probably Marsh is better and cheaper moving forward. The bullpen looks stacked, and now you just have to wonder if they will listen to offers on Strahm. I think it’s clear that a player, or players, will be traded away besides Castellanos, even if the only major addition left is a Realmuto signing. An additional right handed bat would really be huge though, particularly if they want to improve their odds against the Dodgers.

The Phillies at the Winter Meetings

December 7, 2025 / Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Well, we’ve reached judgment day. I’ve written about the Phillies off-season outlook a few times (Here, here, and here.) and even said before the season was over that a breakup could be in order. Over the next three or four days, we will see if that indeed happens. Going in, I have the Phillies approximate payroll as is at $238,098,771, just a few million below the luxury tax. Their 40 man roster has lost two (Robert and Mercado) since I last wrote, and gained one (OF Pedro Leon, from the Astros AAA roster) and now sits at 32.

There are four major free agents from the Phillies roster to watch. Kyle Schwarber is the biggest, after hitting 56 homers in 2025, and the expectation is he will get five years and somewhere between $135 and $150 million ($27 to $30 million a year). J.T. Realmuto may be the most urgent, just because of the lack of catchers even near his level, and he is expected to command two years and somewhere around $25 million total ($12.5 million-ish a year). Ranger Suarez is probably the one it will hurt the most to leave, and he’s probably looking at six years and around $160 million total ($26-27 million a year). Finally there’s Harrison Bader, who was a key pick up at the deadline to the Phillies taking off and running away from the Mets. He is expected to get two to three years in the $12 millionish a year range.

The Phillies also seem to be looking to trade away a few guys. Obviously on top of the list is Nick Castellanos and his $20 million for one more year, which the Phillies are essentially trying to just dump a few million of to whoever will take it (Maybe $2-5 million range in savings). Then there’s Taijuan Walker, who they may or may not actually want to trade him and his $18 million salary for this last season of his deal, which could actually make him an affordable, attractive option to a lot of teams if the Phillies will pay him down to the $8-10 million range. Matt Strahm ($7.5 million), Tanner Banks ($1.2 million), and Jose Alvarado ($9 million) are all possible trade pieces and all would have pretty considerable value to other teams. Alec Bohm ($10.3 million) is definitely available in the final year of his arbitration control, as could possibly be Bryson Stott ($5.8 million) or Brandon Marsh ($4.5 million). Both back-up catchers, Rafael Marchan ($1 million) and Garrett Stubbs ($925,000) are probably available once the Phillies address the starting catcher position. I would call lit a long shot that the Phillies would trade Jesus Luzardo ($10.4 million), but he is in a walk year now and we’re not hearing a whole lot about an extension yet (This makes a lot more sense if they somehow re-sign Suarez). Top prospect Andrew Painter, Aidan Miller, and Justin Crawford have not been available, and probably only are in a mega blockbuster (Think Skubal, or even Skenes here).

The Phillies have some definite needs going into these meetings. If not Schwarber, they will need a major power bat either in the outfield or to DH. Their outfield needs a makeover either way. Second base and third base could be upgraded on for sure. They need a starting catcher. They absolutely need another right-handed reliever to pitch late in games. Their rotation is probably fine, but there are question marks you’d like to sure up.

Here’s what I’d like to see:

At least one major bat signing. Yes, this can mean Kyle Schwarber and I’ll be happy if it is. I would be completely fine with it being Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger, Alex Bregman, or even Eugenio Suarez. Look, Schwarber was a great signing and a fan favorite in Philly but he’s 32, he only can play DH, and he’s another lefty in a line-up full of lefties. If they bring him back, they need to add some right-handed bats elsewhere to balance this line-up out better. Bellinger, Bregman, and Tucker all profile a little better over the life of a five year deal, and Suarez is said to only be seeking a three year deal. The Phillies absolutely need one of these guys though.
They must leave with a catcher. I was not as crazy about Harry Ford (traded from Seattle to DC) as others, as his defense and power have real question marks, and I hated the price (five years of a controllable lefty reliever are nice). The Phillies either need to re-sign Realmuto or get creative on the trade market and find a two to three year solution fast. Realmuto’s price doesn’t sound crazy and the Phillies might be well advised to just pay it. Perhaps once you do, you look around for more help at the catcher position that is younger.
They need to trade for at least one more offensive upgrade. With lefty relievers, a starting pitcher(or more?), and a few 20-something position players on their roster available to move, let alone prospects, the Phillies have the fire power to bring in a right-handed bat somewhere that represents an upgrade, regardless of what happens with Schwarber. Jarren Duran is probably at the top of this list, but he’s not the only guy available out there. They can be an infielder or outfielder, either way the Phillies just need a hitter who deepens their lineup and offers some protection for their big bats. Basically someone to do what Castellanos didn’t.
Whether they trade for (preferable, probably) or sign (probably a rough market) a right handed arm to pitch late in games, they need someone to team with Kerkering as a right-handed set-up man. A bullpen with whoever the addition is, Kerkering, and two of Alvarado, Strahm, and Banks would look very good for the regular season.
Figure out a way on Ranger Suarez. Yes, I know, it’s not a “need.” But it is. You have no idea what will actually happen with Wheeler yet. Nola is a question mark after the worst year of his career, and five seasons ahead on his contract. Luzardo is in a walk year, and you probably need to re-sign him regardless. Painter hasn’t thrown an MLB pitch yet and may start the year in AAA. Walker is what he is, which is serviceable but far from what you want pitching a big game. Ranger Suarez is who he is at this point, a very reliable playoff rotation arm that isn’t quite as durable as you hope for, but is clutch when you need it. Move the money around and make it happen.

They’re not going to get all of this done here and now. Last year they acquired Luzardo right before Christmas. They also should not be afraid to throw Crawford into the line-up opening day to fill one line-up spot, and Aidan Miller later down the road in the season at either second or third. Now is the time to be a bit daring with what you can do with Bohm, Stott, and possibly even Marsh (though a .280 hitter in the outfield is a nice piece), as they have been unwilling to extend any of them so far. There is no sense holding them until free agency and letting them walk, the Phillies aren’t getting compensatory first round picks when they lose them.

Running it back is not an option. I will not be super excited if all they do is bring back players who were here in 2025. They have tried the group as is for four years, and they have not had a parade down Broad Street yet.

Phillies Off-Season Update, 11/19

November 19, 2025November 18, 2025 / Rich Wilkins / 1 Comment

The GM meetings are done. The deadline for adding prospects to the 40 man roster to protect the eligible ones from the Rule 5 Draft has now passed. Free agency has begun. Let’s take another look at where the Phillies 26 man and 40 man rosters are at to start the off-season. Here’s the current players on the roster, with likely payroll:

Catchers– Rafael Marchan (approximately $1 million in arbitration) and Garrett Stubbs (approximately $925,000 in arbitration). $1,925,000
Infield– Bryce Harper- 1B ($25,384,615), Bryson Stott- 2B (approximately $5,800,000 in arbitration), Trea Turner- SS ($27,272,727), Alec Bohm- 3B (approximately $10,300,000 in arbitration), Edmundo Sosa- Utility Man (approximately $3,900,000 in arbitration), and Otto Kemp ($820,000). $73,477,342
Outfield– Nick Castellanos- RF ($20,000,000), Johan Rojas- CF ($820,000), Brandon Marsh- LF (approximately $4,500,000 in arbitration), Weston Wilson- DH ($820,000), and Gabriel Rincones Jr.- OF ($820,000). $26,140,000
Starting Rotation– Cristopher Sanchez- LHP ($5,625,000), Zack Wheeler- RHP ($42,000,000), Jesus Luzardo- LHP (approximately $10,400,000 in arbitration), Aaron Nola- RHP ($24,571,429), and Taijuan Walker- RHP ($18,000,000). $100,596,429.
Bullpen– Jhoan Duran- RRP (approximately $7,600,000 in arbitration), Jose Alvarado- LRP ($9,000,000), Matt Strahm- LRP ($7,500,000), Orion Kerkering- RRP ($820,000), Tanner Banks- LRP (approximately $1,200,000 in arbitration), David Robert-RRP ($820,000), Max Lazar- RRP ($820,000), and Andrew Painter- Long Man ($820,000). $35,960,000
Additional 40 man rosterees, all at pro-rated $820,000 based on how many days they are in the majors this season– Jean Cabrera- RHP, Moises Chace- RHP, Nolan Hoffman- RRP, Seth Johnson- RHP, Alex Mcfarlane- RHP, Michael Mercado- RRP, and Alan Rangel- RHP.
Payroll- $238,098,771

Alright, so as is the Phillies can fill out a 26 man roster that is not so good, and have 7 additional players on the 40 man roster (for a total of 33), at $238,098,771. They have seven available roster spots before spring training, and they will probably put Moises Chace on the 60 day IL (he’s coming back from Tommy John in Reading) to start the year, giving them an 8th spot to add then. Justin Crawford would probably make this team, but they don’t need to give him a spot yet (he could take Chace’s) before Opening Day.

So we now know some things based on Dombrowski’s public comments. Bryce Harper isn’t moving off of first base. Rojas is available in a trade. We already know Castellanos is. The outfield is an area of need. Teams are calling about the Phillies left relief trio, Jose Alvarado, Matt Strahm, and Tanner Banks. The Phillies would like to re-sign Harrison Bader, and want Crawford in the outfield. Schwarber and Ranger rejected the Phillies Qualifying Offer, so the Phillies will receive picks if they leave. The Phillies are prioritizing re-signing Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto.

Ok, so let’s do some things. Let’s assume Crawford will make this team, and will do so at Castellanos’ expense, who will be gone one way or the other. Even if they eat that whole deal, Crawford is at a league minimum. Let’s say they re-sign Schwarber for five years at $30 million per year, and Realmuto for three years at $15 million per year. With Crawford, that is $45,820,000 in added payroll. Let’s presume the Phillies also bring back Harrison Bader at two years and $13 million per year too. Now we’re at $58,820,000. We can now take Stubbs off the books, as the Phillies would highly likely not offer him arbitration since he wouldn’t make the team and is out of options. We’re already accounting for Castellanos going and Crawford taking his roster spot. Let’s just say that we’re hoping a team takes *at least* $820,000 of Castellanos’ deal for this year, thereby making Crawford a wash. Bringing back Schwarber means Gabriel Rincones Jr. returns to AAA this year as does Weston Wilson with Bader back. Rojas is your 4th outfielder, *for now.* So the Phillies add $55,435,000 in payroll, taking them to $293,533,771. One of Marsh, Bader, and Crawford would have to move to right, all three would start. Your bench would look similar to this year’s, with Marchan, Sosa, Kemp, and Rojas. Your catching is the same. Your infield is the same. Wheeler probably starts the year on the IL, moving Painter into the rotation and opening up another bullpen spot for a quarter of the year. That costs you about $205,000. You’re at $293,738,771 right now. You have 36 roster spots filled, four available.

Now again here, you’re trying to move Castellanos and maybe save more, Rojas is on the block, one would think that bringing back Bader makes you at least take calls on Marsh, teams are already calling you about your surplus of lefties (I would assume Strahm is the most likely to move), I would think Taijuan Walker is very available in a trade if you’ll eat some portion of his money, and one would have to assume that Bohm and Stott are very available to make room for the eventual arrival of Aidan Miller. Your priorities are probably a corner outfield bat, an upgrade at either second or third, a righty reliever you would throw in high leverage spots, and maybe a swing man type of starter to replace Walker. I’d like them to prioritize Ranger Suarez, but they would need to move some cash for that to be realistic. If you do the math, they have four spots available, and at least four spots of need. Because of both roster spots and money, I would think they will try to fill at least one of these needs by trading away at least one of the players above in a move to do that. The outfield free agent market lacks after your Tucker or Bellinger types, so could you trade for Jarren Duran or Stephen Kwan? It will cost you, and might require a third team. Then you get into the question of what kind of infielder you can even get. I bet the Phillies could sign Luis Arraez at their current budget, and I might prefer him on a two year deal to Bryson Stott, but is that the kind of move that wins you the World Series? And do you think Miller belongs at second or third? Do you scour the trade market for the right handed reliever you want, because the market costs too much? You at least think you try. You almost certainly need to clear some money to play in the Munetaka Murakami, Alex Bregman, and Eugenio Suarez pool at third base, unless you really might move Castellanos for Arrenado, in which case are you now in the big boy market in the outfield? Lots of moving parts here.

Even just as is, the Phillies are probably over last year’s budget. They were at $305 million without the tax (as best as I can tell), and when you add in all the benefits and bonuses they pay 40 man players and minor leaguers, you have to tack $30 million on to my nearly $294 million number. So that puts them almost $20 million over this year’s number. Dombrowski said payroll would be *roughly* similar. So any additional big moves you have in mind need a subtraction. The Phillies need at least another big move. Bringing back Schwarber, Realmuto, and Bader isn’t assuring you of anything. Sure, you can have high hopes for Crawford, Painter, and even Miller this season, but how high?

Let’s look at this one other way though. If you went out and did all of this, and added Bregman, or Kyle Tucker, or Cody Bellinger, or whoever you’d like, are you in any more certain of a situation to win than you are now? None of them played in this year’s World Series. They were all very good. Are you totally cooked if Arraez and Arrenado are in your infield next year? You’re probably not wildly worse off. You have a good pitching staff that probably pitches you into playoff contention unless it has massive injuries. We’re not talking about losing Schwarber, or Harper, or Turner, or Sanchez, or any other core player anywhere in my piece (I do realize we absolutely could lose Schwarber, or even Realmuto, even though I’m assuming their returns). If you keep your big three bats, your rotation, and the back end relievers you have, you were a 95 win team that won the division two straight years. You can get lucky in the playoffs with any set of role players around them, if they’re big enough for those October moments. That’s not something we have a stat for.

Part I. Part II.

Trade Bryce Harper? Are You Stupid or Something?

October 26, 2025October 27, 2025 / Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Are we really doing this?

I get that Philly is a drama queen town with our teams. That’s fine. You want to scream and yell at A.J. Brown, and fine, whatever. You’ll love him in a few weeks when he’s cooking.

But really, are we debating Bryce Harper? Yes, we’re at 7 years into his deal. Yes, it’s been 4 years since his last MVP, and 3 years since his NLCS MVP. Sure. I might agree he’s not quite elite anymore. He’s still really good.

Look, a 13 year deal is always ugly at the end. I expect us to get three or four more very good seasons from Bryce Harper. The problem with this team is *not* it’s stars though, even if Harper/Schwarber/Turner struggled a bit in the playoffs.

The Phillies didn’t have Wheeler, or Alvarado for the playoff series. They also didn’t see noticeable jumps forward by Bohm, Stott, or Marsh. Also, Castellanos, who I generally like, wasn’t good. All of that explains losing to a really good Dodgers team more than blaming the guys who are elite. Great pitchers will get out great hitters. It’s baseball. We hit our best series right away this year.

What the hell do you think you’re getting for Bryce Harper? You aren’t moving his money and getting great prospects right now. He’s very good. He’s also owed over $150 million against the luxury tax yet. You won’t get an even trade now. He still makes plenty of money, even if not a crazy number. Hoping he plays more next year and continues at his current per game rate (which is still likely at 33) is the best case scenario for the Phillies. Trading him is a losing proposition. Dave Dombrowski was right to shoot it down. No one should have pushed it to begin with. I mean really, you think Ben Rice is a game changer?

Shut up, kids.

Ring That Bell- The Long Off-Season Ahead, Part 1

October 12, 2025 / Rich Wilkins / 3 Comments

For the fourth straight year, the Philadelphia Phillies reached the Postseason. For the fourth straight year the Phillies did not win the World Series. For the second straight year the Phillies won the NL East. For the third straight year the Phillies lost a playoff series to a team they won more games than during the season. 96 wins be damned, the second Kerkering’s throw sailed past Realmuto, the season has felt like a loss. This really seemed like it should have been the year.

It was not though, and it looked a lot like the other recent failures, prompting me and others to say it’s time to break things up a bit. Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Ranger Suarez, Max Kepler, David Robertson, Walker Buehler, and Jordan Romano are all going to be free agents. The Phillies hold a club option on Jose Alvarado and a mutual option with Harrison Bader. The Phillies only control the rights of Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, Jesus Luzardo, Taijuan Walker, and Matt Strahm for one more year. In other words, the group they built from 2022 until this past trade deadline is coming to the conclusion of their contracts. The ball club is coming to a crossroads.

The Phillies have guaranteed contracts with Trea Turner ($27,272,727 toward the luxury tax), Bryce Harper ($25,384,615), Nick Castellanos ($20,000,000), Zack Wheeler ($42,000,000), Cristopher Sanchez ($5,625,000), Aaron Nola ($24,571,429), Taijuan Walker ($18,000,000), and Matt Strahm ($7,500,000 option that vested). The owe a minimum buyout of $500,000 on Alvarado if they buy out his option ($9,000,000 if they accept it) and $3,000,000 on Bader if they decline ($10,000,000 if they accept it. That leaves them with a guaranteed payroll of $173,853,771.

The Phillies have a number of players who are also arbitration eligible. MLB Trade Rumors did a piece recently projecting what those players should get, you should give them a read. They project that should the Phillies agree to offer arbitration to these players (they can decline to and let the player go to free agency), Alec Bohm ($10,300,000), Brandon Marsh ($4,500,000), Bryson Stott ($5,800,000), Edmundo Sosa ($3,900,000), Rafael Marchan ($1,000,000), Garrett Stubbs ($925,000), Jesus Luzardo ($10,400,000), Jhoan Duran ($7,600,000), and Tanner Banks ($1,200,000) would cost the Phillies roughly (these are estimates) $45,625,000. Added together with their guaranteed contracts and the Phillies would have a starting payroll of $219,448,771. There are also a number of players on the Phillies current roster who neither have reached a guaranteed free agent contract or arbitration, and those players are renewed for next season at a minimum rate of $820,000 (if they’re up the whole season. Those players are Orion Kerkering, Max Lazar, Weston Wilson, Otto Kemp, Johan Rojas, Alan Rangel (spent some time up this year, mostly is a AAA starter), Moises Chace (coming back from Tommy John in AA, unlikely to pitch in the majors), Jean Cabrera (Pitched in Reading fairly well this year), Daniel Robert (was up and down a bit this season), Michael Mercado (has come up for short stints the last two years), Seth Johnson (has come up for short stints the last two years), Nolan Hoffman (made his debut for the Phillies late this season), Rafael Lantigua (spent the entire AAA season in Lehigh Valley and came up in the last week), and Brewer Hicklen (has spent much of the last two seasons in Lehigh Valley and appeared on the 40 man roster both years). Most of them won’t make their full salary because they will spend time in the minors, but however many spots you fill with these guys, you’ll pay out $820,000.

For our arguments sake right now, let’s assume everyone under contract is back in full, all of the players at arbitration are retained right at the rates above, and Alvarado and Bader’s options are exercised, putting the Phillies payroll at $234,948,771. In order to fill out the roster, let’s assume that Kerkering, Lazar, Robert, and Rangel are kept in the bullpen, and Kemp and Rojas are kept on the bench. They may interchange with some of the other guys on that list, but they would cost $4,920,000 more, setting the Phillies minimum payroll right now at $239,868,771. The luxury tax threshold for 2026 is $244,000,000. The Phillies would have $4,232,229 to spend before the tax, assuming they don’t non-tender some of these players or trade them.

Quite clearly, that is not enough money to bring back any of the free agents on this team right now, but I wouldn’t worry too much about that. For one thing, even cheaper players like Justin Crawford, Andrew Painter, Gabriel Rincones, and Aidan Miller all have varying chances to contribute to the team next season. Second, and probably more importantly, they will move some of the guys they have. Third, and most importantly, the Phillies are likely to go into the luxury tax again this season. With all of that said, I would be very surprised if they kept all of Schwarber, Realmuto, and Suarez- they probably can’t afford it. They also would probably be smart to not pile more money into players 32 and up (Schwarber and Realmuto) without at least trying to get younger and more athletic somewhere on the roster. With all of that said, there are other costs the team takes on- minor league payroll, player benefits, differed payments to past players (Realmuto and Didi Gregorius are both being paid next year), and the bonus pool for pre-arbitration players on the team. They come out to about $30,000,000 for the Phillies next season. So the Phillies are really only about $35 million short of what they paid out in 2025.

I would say they go into the offseason needing a catcher (Realmuto?), a power bat (Could be Schwarber, could be an outfielder or corner infielder too), and at least one high leverage reliever, if not two. If I were them, I’d take a good long look at their starting pitching, as it was great this year, but had cracks, and I’d consider bringing back Ranger Suarez. I would prioritize extensions for Luzardo and Duran, and I’d try to work out a two or three year deal at a lower average annual value (luxury tax hit) with Bader and Alvarado. Finally, I’d prioritize getting Crawford and Painter onto the active roster early next season, even if it’s not an ideal role. Notice the Dodgers had some young starting pitchers (Sheehan and Sasaki) in their playoff bullpen, it’s okay to bring a guy up and build his role there. This is where things start from. We’ll dive further in, in a couple of days.

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