Baseball

MLB Power Rankings, 7/14/26 (All-Star Break)

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Well it’s the All-Star Break. Baseball is descending on Philadelphia. Tonight I’ll be sitting in the seats watching Cristopher Sanchez deliver the first pitch to Mike Trout. I was not nearly as excited about this months ago as I have become recently. In 1996 I was there, and it was awesome, but there was one Phillies player in the game. This will be dramatically different. Maybe too different in my view, but there’s no way to balance getting every team involved with giving the fans what they want.

As for where baseball is- well, it’s where you expect it to be. The Dodgers are good. The Brewers, Braves, Phillies, and Cubs are chasing them in the NL. The Yankees, Guardians, and Mariners are good. But it’s also not. Miami, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis are as alive as the Padres and Diamondbacks in the NL. The White Sox and Rays are more alive than the Tigers or Blue Jays. Everything that was predictable, well most of it was. But not all of it.

First, here’s my preseason picks. Boy, I got some wrong. Here’s the first and second power rankings too. I’ll give you my updated power rankings now, then the thoughts on the rest of the season:

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers
  2. Milwaukee Brewers
  3. Tampa Bay Rays
  4. Atlanta Braves
  5. Chicago Cubs
  6. Philadelphia Phillies
  7. New York Yankees
  8. Cleveland Guardians
  9. Chicago White Sox
  10. Miami Marlins
  11. Texas Rangers
  12. St. Louis Cardinals
  13. Pittsburgh Pirates
  14. Arizona Diamondbacks
  15. San Diego Padres
  16. Seattle Mariners
  17. Boston Red Sox
  18. Washington Nationals
  19. Minnesota Twins
  20. Houston Astros
  21. Baltimore Orioles
  22. Detroit Tigers
  23. Toronto Blue Jays
  24. Cincinnati Reds
  25. Sacramento Athletics
  26. San Francisco Giants
  27. New York Mets
  28. Kansas City Royals
  29. Colorado Rockies
  30. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

So I re-arranged the front group, but not wildly. I think the top eight all have a legitimate shot to win the World Series and should be absolute buyers. From nine to sixteen, those teams really should believe in their team and try to buy. Here’s the thing though- I don’t think any of the top 24 are like 100% out of this. How they come out after the break will really determine what those teams do, and there are teams like Boston and Detroit that I thought were absolutely dead that have actually regained some life in recent weeks.

Here’s how I would evaluate each team’s chances though- how many legitimate #1 or 2 pitchers do they have, and how bad is the back end of their bullpen. Teams that have three or even four premium arms are going to eventually just pull away, as long as they have a bullpen that doesn’t just give away wins they should get. If you made me predict today, I’d predict the Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies, Yankees, Guardians, and Mariners to win their divisions. I’d predict the Cubs, Braves, and Marlins to win the NL Wild Cards, today. The teams I think with the best shot of knocking off the Marlins? Pittsburgh and Arizona. The deadline will decide that, and frankly if Atlanta pulls a strong deadline they could hold off the Phillies- if they don’t do the same. In the AL, I’d pick the Wild Cards to go to Texas, Tampa, and Boston- yes, Boston- right now. Again, pitching. Most pitchers are at 18 or 19 starts this season right now, and teams with less proven arms will see serious depreciation in the last ten to thirteen starts of a pitcher’s season. Teams like St. Louis and Washington, who have really fun lineups to be excited about, will need pitching to not fall off. I love what the White Sox are doing, but they are a team who needs to add arms. Again, I like teams like Miami and Pittsburgh, who have young arms that casual fans don’t realize are really talented, and will hold up better than you believe. I still basically believe the teams like the Yankees and Cubs who were built with postseason aspirations, or even just well run teams like Milwaukee, will hold up better. Those teams are made for long seasons.

AS FOR MY PHILLIES, I did say I think they’ll win the division, but the deadline will matter. They have the best top three starters in the division, if not the league, and that will be decisive. They have the most top heavy roster in baseball though. They have six guys at the All-Star Game. Add Wheeler to that, and that’s about all of the roster that you’d bet your season on. Maybe you’d add Kerkering or a Stott and say you feel decent about them, or you might still feel very good about Justin Crawford’s progress as a rookie, but they’re truly all complimentary pieces. The truth is that the Phillies charitably can feel good about maybe nine or ten roster spots, and should look for any upgrades they can possibly make for the other 16. I’m not asking for big names like Buxton or Trout, I’d be fine with several marginal upgrades. I particularly am intrigued by the possibilities with the Giants, Tigers, Angels and Twins, among teams that may have more than one piece we want in a deal. Like everyone else, a right-handed bat, left handed reliever, and starting pitcher better than Aaron Nola would work. Given that this team is carrying two back-up catchers around for an abnormal amount of time, I’m not picky on bats, just someone who actually can hit. I’d love to buy a rental arm like Ray, but that’s probably a pipe dream, so again, anything above a five. And someone to replace Alvarado as the main lefty in the seventh and eighth.

I said Ohtani and Judge would win the MVP’s, with Bobby Witt Jr. and Juan Soto as the top challenges. Woof. Do I think Ohtani should win? No, I think frankly he should be more under consideration for Cy Young, but in the analytics age he’s a given. Personally I’m drifting further from being a WAR voter as this season goes on, but I’d probably vote for James Wood in the NL, though I’m tempted to say the hell with the analytics and pick Schwarber. If he really hits 60 and people start telling me about PCA’s defensive metrics, I’ll bite their head off. With that said, Pete Crow-Armstrong is having a very good season and needs a look too. My AL mention of Witt is more than deserving, but his team is massively disappointing. Yordan Alvarez’s team isn’t a ton better. So maybe I’m voting for Junior Caminero. For NL Cy Young I am going homer and saying I’d pick Zack Wheeler (yes, the non-All Star) over Sanchez, Misiorowski, and Ohtani in what is a fantastic race. In the AL, give me Cam Schlittler by a nose over Dylan Cease right now. I’ll give Kevin McGonigle the nod for AL Rookie of the Year and J.J. Wetherholt the NL nod, unless Murakami can come back strong from injury. That AL race is going to be great. Clayton McCullough and Will Venable get my Manager of the Year nods.

MLB Power Rankings 5/25

/ Rich Wilkins / 1 Comment

Well, here we finally are. My first power rankings of the MLB Season come about 1/3 of the way through the seasons (it’s exactly 1/3 for my Phillies). I’ll start by just diving into the rankings, then we’ll talk about it after.

  1. Atlanta Braves
  2. Tampa Bay Rays
  3. Los Angeles Dodgers
  4. Milwaukee Brewers
  5. Cleveland Guardians
  6. San Diego Padres
  7. New York Yankees
  8. Arizona Diamondbacks
  9. St. Louis Cardinals
  10. Chicago Cubs
  11. Cincinnati Reds
  12. Sacramento Athletics
  13. Philadelphia Phillies
  14. Chicago White Sox
  15. Pittsburgh Pirates
  16. Washington Nationals
  17. Toronto Blue Jays
  18. Miami Marlins
  19. Seattle Mariners
  20. Minnesota Twins
  21. Baltimore Orioles
  22. Boston Red Sox
  23. Texas Rangers
  24. Houston Astros
  25. New York Mets
  26. San Francisco Giants
  27. Kansas City Royals
  28. Detroit Tigers
  29. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
  30. Colorado Rockies

There’s a lot of surprises here, a lot of teams ranked in places I would not have expected them to be. Atlanta and the Dodgers aren’t shocking, although Atlanta not only survived early pitching injuries, but thrived through them. Tampa? Shocking. We all sat here thinking Milwaukee and Cleveland might drop back a bit, but they have not. San Diego and the Yankees are right in the discussion to win it all, no shock there. Same with the Cubs. Arizona might be a slight surprise, but not astounding. St. Louis? Shock.

It’s the next ten that are filled with surprises. Philadelphia, Toronto, and Seattle all have higher expectations than this. None have hit like last year. They can all pitch though, so don’t hit the panic button yet. Teams like the White Sox and Nationals have probably played a bit over their heads so far, but they probably don’t have the pitching to stay in the race. They will need to convince their front offices to go get them help.

And then there are teams in serious trouble already. Boston is disappointing. The Mets and Giants are cataclysmic. Kansas City may have to give up on this group. Detroit? Everything is going wrong. And of course you have the Angels and Rockies, who are both not going anywhere at all- like not into a rebuild, not into trying to win, they’re literally just existing.

Since we’re at the 1/3 mark, I’ll add here that right now I’d give the MVP’s to Drake Baldwin and Ben Rice, neither of whom will win. I’d give the Cy Youngs to Cristopher Sanchez and Cam Schlittler, of which I’d say Sanchez is more likely but both are a little bit of a surprise. I’d give the Rookie of the Year awards to Munetaka Murakami (who is going to get a lot of folks fired) and Sal Stewart, both guys that seem capable of keeping this pace. I’d give Manager of the Year to Walt Weiss and Kevin Cash, and neither would be remotely close.

Lots of baseball ahead. We’ll see where we are in the next rankings.

Final 2025 Season MLB Power Rankings, 11/3

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Anybody who really knows me knows how much I don’t like the Los Angeles Dodgers. I don’t mind that they spend a lot of money. ALL of these teams should spend a lot of money, and I give them credit for doing so. They are a big market and they behave like it, and we should all be happy about that. Every owner in baseball is a billionaire though. At a minimum, they could spend their revenue, which is north of $250 million for every team. For my money, the Dodgers are doing what they should. I just don’t like them because I like Philadelphia. We seem to meet a lot over the last 50 years in the playoffs. I’m not supposed to like them.

The Dodgers are a well built team. They have excellent starting pitching, and depth amongst those starters. They have at least three strong Hall-of-Fame candidates in their lineup. Their bullpen sucked all year, but that’s what the starting depth was there to fix. Yamamoto is worth every penny the Dodgers gave him, he is the true #1 starter on that team. Like I said, they’re a good team.

Now, will they threepeat? Shohei Ohtani apparently went full Patrick Mahomes today and called it. Maybe he’ll be more lucky than Patrick. Obviously Snell, Glasnow, and Ohtani’s arms could all fall off at any point and they could be in trouble. Mookie showed signs of slowing offensively this year and Freeman was more “very good” than great. They have some older players who have been staples of that lineup who are not young anymore. They get the benefit of the doubt until someone challenges them next year. Milwaukee and Philadelphia appear to be in the ballgame, but you have to actually get it done once before you get the benefit of the doubt. Toronto got quite close, but Toronto has to start over next season like everyone else, and then show us they are more 2025 than 2024.

This ranking will serve as the last ranking for the 2025 season. There’s some minor movement in the playoff teams, but nothing big. The next time I do one of these rankings will probably be around the Winter Meetings, when free agency gets very hot and rosters are changing. Until then, there’s nothing to really change. So this will be it for now. We’ll probably basically do a monthly ranking in December and January.

Great season guys, great season.

10/27 rankings. 10/20 rankings. 10/13 rankings. 10/6 rankings. 9/29 rankings. 9/22 rankings. 9/15 rankings. 9/8 rankings. 9/3 rankings. 8/25 rankings. 8/18 rankings. 8/11 rankings.

  1. The Los Angeles Dodgers
  2. The Toronto Blue Jays
  3. The Milwaukee Brewers
  4. The Philadelphia Phillies
  5. The Seattle Mariners
  6. The New York Yankees
  7. The Chicago Cubs
  8. The Detroit Tigers
  9. The Cleveland Guardians
  10. The San Diego Padres
  11. The Boston Red Sox
  12. The Cincinnati Reds
  13. The Houston Astros
  14. The New York Mets
  15. The Kansas City Royals
  16. The Texas Rangers
  17. The San Francisco Giants
  18. The Arizona Diamondbacks
  19. The Miami Marlins
  20. The St. Louis Cardinals
  21. The Tampa Bay Rays
  22. The Oakland Athletics
  23. The Atlanta Braves
  24. The Baltimore Orioles
  25. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
  26. The Pittsburgh Pirates
  27. The Minnesota Twins
  28. The Washington Nationals
  29. The Chicago White Sox
  30. The Colorado Rockies

Some Trade Deadline Primer Thoughts on the Phillies

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

It’s July 21st. The Phillies are 56-43. They have a half game lead over the Mets in the NL East. Things are really not bad. One could argue that if nothing happens in the next ten days, they are still highly likely to make the playoffs. They have the best starting pitching rotation in Major League Baseball, and they have depth. Their fate literally may come down to whether their pitching and maybe Harper and Schwarber are hot when the playoffs start. There is no rhyme or reason to picking who wins the World Series, it’s usually just whoever can get on a run for a month.

It doesn’t feel like the Phillies are going to win though. Sure, it didn’t feel that way for most of 2008, or in 2022, but feelings are not as irrelevant as advanced metrics can make them feel. Were you 100% confident in Craig Kimbrel in 2023? No, but he did have a pretty good year until the NLCS. In 2024 the Phillies felt literally unbeatable until June, then they limped to the division title and lost right away in October. The Phillies are back in first and that’s great, but the season to this point feels more like last year from June on than the early portion. The bullpen is a mess. The lineup really isn’t that bad statistically, but it’s wildly inconsistent. They’re really not a great team on the road. They have lost series against current playoff contenders San Diego, San Francisco, Milwaukee, St. Louis, and New York this season (they’ve beaten some of them too). Sure, they absolutely can beat Los Angeles or Chicago in a playoff series. They have to get there to even have that conversation though.

If all I did was write down that they need bullpen help, there would be no point to me writing this. Orion Kerkering, Tanner Banks, and Matt Strahm can’t really be all they use in a playoff series. I like signing David Robertson yesterday, but that doesn’t fix their bullpen problem on it’s own. If we’re being realistic, the Phillies probably need two more relief arms at the deadline, but might get away with one good one because they’ll shift a starter or two into their bullpen for the postseason. Again though, everyone knows this. They desperately could use some help internally, but their AAA bullpen might be worse than the big league one.

The bigger problem here is that the Phillies could probably use a bat too, and there aren’t really many of them available. Center field is a black hole, left field might somehow be worse, second base has been very disappointing, and a number of other spots in the lineup have been fine, but inconsistent. Without even getting into the potential future without Kyle Schwarber, or even to a much lesser extent J.T. Realmuto, the Phillies offense needs a re-tool. They’re no longer the feared group they were in the 2022 World Series run. The problem is, there’s not a lot of difference makers on the market. In fact, the solution may be sitting in AAA, with Justin Crawford hitting .325, with an .830 OPS as of this morning. The solution to the offense could simply be slotting him in center, full-time platooning Marsh and Otto Kemp in left, and maybe finding a bench bat on the trade market that kills left handers. Of course there’s a major problem with that thought process though- how do you get the kind of relief arm the Phillies need without moving a Crawford in a trade? Especially if you correctly don’t want to trade Andrew Painter for a reliever? If you’re keeping Painter off the market, it’s hard to hold onto Crawford and Aidan Miller, your best two offensive prospects. Mick Abel has recovered a lot of value this season, but he still won’t land you a Mason Miller or Emmanuel Clase on his own. And if you trade Crawford? You still have two glaring holes in your outfield to fill.

I’m not saying I don’t want Miller or Clase, but I am saying that I haven’t gone into the fully crazy fan mode where I’m willing to move Painter or the whole system to get them. The Phillies have multiple needs right now, and the problem they face is that the solution to one is the cost of the other. I would not be upset if they find a team who is willing to move them multiple relief arms, or a relief arm and a right-handed bat, instead of making the biggest splash for the biggest reliever. This team is obviously not a bad team, but it is conceivable that quantity is as important as quality for them. The 2008 Phillies got players like Joe Blanton and Matt Stairs to load up for the postseason. The 2009 Phillies got Cliff Lee. The 2008 team won. Again, I’d love seeing Miller or Clase in South Philadelphia this Fall, but I hope the front office isn’t so in love with them that they throw all caution to the wind- because I don’t think they alone will be enough.

With all of that said, I think the worst outcome of all would be nothing. The Dodgers, Cubs, Mets, Brewers, and Padres are the current other playoff teams, and while they’re all good, that’s hardly terrifying when you have the best rotation of the group. The Phillies absolutely need to make moves in the plural and go for this thing. A set up man or an Austin Hays level bat won’t do it. Dave Dombrowski is known as an aggressive executive, one who goes for the World Series every chance he gets, and gets there a lot. The Phillies need him to live up to that billing over the next week or so. You just can’t waste opportunities like this.