For the fourth straight year, the Philadelphia Phillies reached the Postseason. For the fourth straight year the Phillies did not win the World Series. For the second straight year the Phillies won the NL East. For the third straight year the Phillies lost a playoff series to a team they won more games than during the season. 96 wins be damned, the second Kerkering’s throw sailed past Realmuto, the season has felt like a loss. This really seemed like it should have been the year.

It was not though, and it looked a lot like the other recent failures, prompting me and others to say it’s time to break things up a bit. Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Ranger Suarez, Max Kepler, David Robertson, Walker Buehler, and Jordan Romano are all going to be free agents. The Phillies hold a club option on Jose Alvarado and a mutual option with Harrison Bader. The Phillies only control the rights of Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, Jesus Luzardo, Taijuan Walker, and Matt Strahm for one more year. In other words, the group they built from 2022 until this past trade deadline is coming to the conclusion of their contracts. The ball club is coming to a crossroads.

The Phillies have guaranteed contracts with Trea Turner ($27,272,727 toward the luxury tax), Bryce Harper ($25,384,615), Nick Castellanos ($20,000,000), Zack Wheeler ($42,000,000), Cristopher Sanchez ($5,625,000), Aaron Nola ($24,571,429), Taijuan Walker ($18,000,000), and Matt Strahm ($7,500,000 option that vested). The owe a minimum buyout of $500,000 on Alvarado if they buy out his option ($9,000,000 if they accept it) and $3,000,000 on Bader if they decline ($10,000,000 if they accept it. That leaves them with a guaranteed payroll of $173,853,771.

The Phillies have a number of players who are also arbitration eligible. MLB Trade Rumors did a piece recently projecting what those players should get, you should give them a read. They project that should the Phillies agree to offer arbitration to these players (they can decline to and let the player go to free agency), Alec Bohm ($10,300,000), Brandon Marsh ($4,500,000), Bryson Stott ($5,800,000), Edmundo Sosa ($3,900,000), Rafael Marchan ($1,000,000), Garrett Stubbs ($925,000), Jesus Luzardo ($10,400,000), Jhoan Duran ($7,600,000), and Tanner Banks ($1,200,000) would cost the Phillies roughly (these are estimates) $45,625,000. Added together with their guaranteed contracts and the Phillies would have a starting payroll of $219,448,771. There are also a number of players on the Phillies current roster who neither have reached a guaranteed free agent contract or arbitration, and those players are renewed for next season at a minimum rate of $820,000 (if they’re up the whole season. Those players are Orion Kerkering, Max Lazar, Weston Wilson, Otto Kemp, Johan Rojas, Alan Rangel (spent some time up this year, mostly is a AAA starter), Moises Chace (coming back from Tommy John in AA, unlikely to pitch in the majors), Jean Cabrera (Pitched in Reading fairly well this year), Daniel Robert (was up and down a bit this season), Michael Mercado (has come up for short stints the last two years), Seth Johnson (has come up for short stints the last two years), Nolan Hoffman (made his debut for the Phillies late this season), Rafael Lantigua (spent the entire AAA season in Lehigh Valley and came up in the last week), and Brewer Hicklen (has spent much of the last two seasons in Lehigh Valley and appeared on the 40 man roster both years). Most of them won’t make their full salary because they will spend time in the minors, but however many spots you fill with these guys, you’ll pay out $820,000.

For our arguments sake right now, let’s assume everyone under contract is back in full, all of the players at arbitration are retained right at the rates above, and Alvarado and Bader’s options are exercised, putting the Phillies payroll at $234,948,771. In order to fill out the roster, let’s assume that Kerkering, Lazar, Robert, and Rangel are kept in the bullpen, and Kemp and Rojas are kept on the bench. They may interchange with some of the other guys on that list, but they would cost $4,920,000 more, setting the Phillies minimum payroll right now at $239,868,771. The luxury tax threshold for 2026 is $244,000,000. The Phillies would have $4,232,229 to spend before the tax, assuming they don’t non-tender some of these players or trade them.

Quite clearly, that is not enough money to bring back any of the free agents on this team right now, but I wouldn’t worry too much about that. For one thing, even cheaper players like Justin Crawford, Andrew Painter, Gabriel Rincones, and Aidan Miller all have varying chances to contribute to the team next season. Second, and probably more importantly, they will move some of the guys they have. Third, and most importantly, the Phillies are likely to go into the luxury tax again this season. With all of that said, I would be very surprised if they kept all of Schwarber, Realmuto, and Suarez- they probably can’t afford it. They also would probably be smart to not pile more money into players 32 and up (Schwarber and Realmuto) without at least trying to get younger and more athletic somewhere on the roster. With all of that said, there are other costs the team takes on- minor league payroll, player benefits, differed payments to past players (Realmuto and Didi Gregorius are both being paid next year), and the bonus pool for pre-arbitration players on the team. They come out to about $30,000,000 for the Phillies next season. So the Phillies are really only about $35 million short of what they paid out in 2025.

I would say they go into the offseason needing a catcher (Realmuto?), a power bat (Could be Schwarber, could be an outfielder or corner infielder too), and at least one high leverage reliever, if not two. If I were them, I’d take a good long look at their starting pitching, as it was great this year, but had cracks, and I’d consider bringing back Ranger Suarez. I would prioritize extensions for Luzardo and Duran, and I’d try to work out a two or three year deal at a lower average annual value (luxury tax hit) with Bader and Alvarado. Finally, I’d prioritize getting Crawford and Painter onto the active roster early next season, even if it’s not an ideal role. Notice the Dodgers had some young starting pitchers (Sheehan and Sasaki) in their playoff bullpen, it’s okay to bring a guy up and build his role there. This is where things start from. We’ll dive further in, in a couple of days.