Impeachment- Rome is Burning…

The view down Pennsylvania Avenue…

A few hours from now, Donald J. Trump is likely to become the third President to be impeached by the House of Representatives in the more than 240 years of the Republic. As I write this, I’m sitting in the Capitol Hill Starbucks on Pennsylvania Avenue, just blocks from the House floor. I might as well be home in Easton, given the divide I currently feel towards our politics.

To be clear, I believe Donald Trump should be impeached on many more counts than the two the House will consider tomorrow. Yes, he attempted to abuse his power by withholding both military aid and an Oval Office visit from the Ukraine, unless they investigated Joe Biden and his son. To be clear, that’s also an effort to extort a bribe. Trump also obstructed justice in his attempts to thwart Congressional oversight, refusing to turn over documents, make witnesses available, and ignoring subpoenas. Robert Mueller also made clear that Trump obstructed justice in his probe of election interference, particularly in limiting cooperation and firing the FBI Director. He also filed false reports of his campaign spending, when he failed to disclose his “hush money” payment to Stormy Daniels (and others) that he made when he wanted to keep the affair with the porn star quiet before the election. In addition to all of that, he is not disclosing the “gift” of free legal representation from Rudy Giuliani on his ethics forms (I’m not sure they’re a gift, but I digress). I’m leaving aside matters I consider to be of personal distaste, or his moral character, which I believe should be settled by the 2020 Election, not the impeachment process. I think he should be minimally impeached on articles of abuse of power, two counts of obstruction, bribery, falsification of campaign finance reports, falsification of an ethics report, and possibly extortion. In fact, I believe the House is wrong to vote on this matter until they have played out all legal disputes for additional testimony from people such as Mick Mulvaney, Rudy Giuliani, and Secretary Pompeo, because let’s face it, then Senate isn’t going to force the testimony of anyone else. House Democrats cutting this short are short-changing Democracy. And again, I’m leaving aside all issues of policy differences, Trump’s capacity to serve, or his moral character. Those have no place here.

Here’s the other, obvious side of this, to me- this was both inevitable and completely pointless. From the day he took office, some House Democrats, and very many activists in our base wanted to impeach him for all the political and personal reasons we find him disgusting. To be clear, most of America, including some of the people who supported him in 2016, find him unacceptable- Trump is the first President in modern times to never average or sustain a 50% approval rating for any sustainable period of time in the first three years he sat in office. In fact, 2016 exit polls showed his Election Day approval at 38%, while he received 46% of the vote. A full 8% of America knew Trump was no good, and still preferred him to any other choice for President. Americans know what Donald Trump is, and don’t care. Nothing he did to Robert Mueller, the Ukraine, with Russia, to the Congress, or otherwise uncovered in this investigation is going to dramatically change anything. The televised hearings didn’t move public opinion. Shaming the GOP for supporting their President (who has mostly done what they wanted in delivering conservative judges, tax cuts, and deregulation), it didn’t work. You can make the Senate take any oath as jurors that you would like, Donald Trump will not be convicted and removed from office by 67 Senators. This is not in doubt. In fact, the outcome was inevitable. Trump supporters do not care that he is objectionable to the Democratic base, and in fact they like it, full stop. Democrats should have listened to the voices telling them this from the start, because this is a process with no point. Trump won’t have to wear a “scarlet letter” for being impeached, but perhaps the freshmen Democratic members representing actual competitive districts might, because we put them in the inevitably hard position of choosing between the just (holding Trump to account) and the good (working on politically popular items that would allow them to continue helping their constituents by being re-elected). History will show Trump to have looked like a clown, and absolutely no living person has any reason to care.

And so tomorrow we will have a historic moment in our Congress that will have little to no tangible impact on today. Your Facebook feed will be full of middle aged white men in red hats calling Speaker Pelosi and Democrats vile names, talking ignorantly about Hillary Clinton’s “crimes” that never existed. You’ll also have women in pink hats on your feed talking about how the “Senate must do the right thing,” and posting Capitol phone numbers to lobby Senators who have long since made up their mind, based on opinion back home. Some twitter warriors will call for Rep. Peterson (D-MN) to be primaried for voting “no” on impeachment (good luck ever holding that dark red seat without him). The noise will be loud. And for who, for what?

To be clear, again, I think Donald Trump deserves his historical designation as a crooked dumpster fire of a President tomorrow. I’m just failing to see what we all get from it. If Democrats had been able to subject Trump to the drumbeat of criminal accusations over the next year, much like Republicans did to Hillary Clinton in 2016, and ultimately moved a big chunk of that 8% that voted for him and disliked him to stay home, vote third party, or vote Democratic next year, a failed impeachment would have had tremendous value. As is, it feels like we appeased the loud voices in the party that never understood the value of this anyway.

Moving forward, it’s clear to me that we should not view impeachment through some sort of moral duty prism. There is no trigger in the constitution at which Congress is compelled to impeach. In fact the House chose to not impeach Vice-President Spiro Agnew in the 1970’s even as he was indicted and convicted of felonies. The only “successful” impeachment of our President was the Watergate process against Richard Nixon, which pushed him to resignation once we had broad national unity against him. Even though this standard would protect reprehensible people like Trump, it would also stop nonsense conversations that have no real value. You can’t impeach and convict a President unless their own party turns on them. It was true with Bill Clinton. It’s true today. Perhaps we’d be better off making that our standard.

23

Happy Sunday, October 14th, 2018. There are 23 days until the midterm elections. As the time ticks off towards zero, I am reminded that I felt great yet at this point in 2016, so let’s not worry too much about how I *feel.* As for what I see…

Let’s dive into today’s stuff…

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What if I told you a bloodbath might not be coming in the 2018 midterms? I think Democrats are going to win the House, like most people, but we may not get much beyond that. Would you believe me? How big do you think the “Blue Wave” is?

Right now, the Cook Political report says that 16 Republican seats are either likely Democratic or lean Republican. Democrats need just 23 seats to take the House and elect a Speaker. There are 29 Republican seats considered total toss-ups, and 24 that lean Republican, meaning at least 69 Republican seats are in peril right now. If the political winds tip just a bit towards the Democrats, they could have a great, great night and win 250 seats. That’s not necessarily likely though.

What is more likely is a Democratic victory much like 2006- in the 30 seat neighborhood. That would give Democrats a majority, but only with about 225 seats. That’s not a massive majority in the House (like 225-210), and that’s just one chamber. What will happen beyond the House?

The Real Clear Politics projection for the U.S. Senate is R+2 seats. RCP bases it’s projection on an average of the polls. In other words, they have Democrats losing Senate seats. They have Democrats picking up 7 or 8 Governorships, which is valuable, but it’s telling which ones they don’t have Democrats picking up- blue states like Massachusetts and Maryland, or “popular” ones among the Democratic base like Georgia, or worse yet, ones that really should have been ripe for the picking like Nevada. It’s worth noting that the places Democrats lead for pick-ups, like Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, and even Michigan, are states where establishment, mainstream candidates won the primaries.

I expect Democrats to pick up several state legislatures and Governor’s mansions on election night, and to win the House. I’m less confident that Democrats will be celebrating massive majorities, and wins by candidates like Beto O’Rourke. When this is done, we will need to take stock of how much money and energy we wasted to appease our “Resistance.”

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I’ve been telling anyone who will listen for a few weeks that the Astros are going to repeat, whether any of us like that or not. Last night they handled the Red Sox, 7-2 at Fenway. Houston is just a next level team, and expecting anyone to stop their repeat seems futile to me.

The other thing that seems futile to me is expecting the National League/JV League champ to compete either. If Oakland or Cleveland, two teams sent home early in the AL, were in the NL, they would have won. The fact is that Houston, Boston, and even the Yankees, would crush the NL Champion. All three won 100 games this season, and sport elite offenses that no NL team can keep up with. The real World Series is Houston and Boston.

That’s even more true when you have Craig Counsell pulling guys throwing a shutout through 5.2 innings and Clayton Kershaw being October Kershaw. I get that the game is changing, but going straight to the bullpen in the third when Gio Gonzalez is pitching just fine will never sit right with me. Perhaps baseball is over-relying on the algorithms.

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How’s ‘Ye doin’? No, really, how is Kanye doing? The man who wrote lyrics like, “Little is known of Sierra-Leone, and how it connects to the diamonds we own,” and accused George W. Bush of not caring about black people is now spending time at the White House, hanging out with Donald Trump. It’s as though the man isn’t ok…

Kanye is one of my favorite rappers ever, present tense. The man is an artistic genius. Songs he made, songs he produced, are parts of my soul at this point, because they weren’t just very good, but they carried personal meaning in their moments in time. That’s why watching this man disintegrate into a steaming pile of trash isn’t as funny to me as it is to many others. Three years ago, Kanye and Kim were taking selfies with Hillary and Kanye was being attacked as a “reverse racist” by conservatives. Now he’s a MAGAt? Huh?!?

Part of this is clearly just about selling records, I guess. Part of it could be Kanye being changed by the fame. It’s also entirely possible, and not at all funny, that maybe this man is mentally ill, a drug addict, or both. I don’t know how to explain it though.

It’s important that we don’t treat Kanye’s outrageous behavior as legitimate though. This isn’t the same as his old buddy Taylor Swift telling people to vote, and to vote for a specific candidate. This was the screeching of a changed man, a not well man, who is completely ostracizing himself from his own fan base, while talking about how time is a construct. He’s not well.

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I’m going to throw today’s candidate to watch in here, instead of last today. Today I want you to help my home candidate for the Pennsylvania State House, Amy Cozze, who is running for the 137th district in the PA House.

Amy is a mother, cancer survivor, small business owner, and activist. She believes Harrisburg doesn’t work right now, like most Pennsylvanians. Funding our schools, fixing our infrastructure, creating good paying jobs, and insuring access to affordable health care are some of her priorities. Her opponent, Rep. Joe Emrick has actively cut education funding, pushed against access to affordable health care, and opposed giving workers a living wage. We need a change.

Donate to Amy here. Follow her on Twitter and Facebook. Volunteer if you can, here.

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College football is a lot like the NBA, in that you get caught up in the storyline as a fan, even though you know Alabama/Golden State is going to win in the end. Teams fall in and out of contention throughout the season, which makes it fun to watch.

I grew up a Notre Dame fan, adopted Penn State too when I started knowing players and going up there to party, and also now like Temple, since my sister went there. My, what different paths these teams are taking.

My Fighting Irish remained unbeaten and in the top five after surviving Pitt yesterday. The biggest problem Notre Dame has is that they don’t play all ranked teams in prime time. Their worst performances this year have come against teams like Vanderbilt and Pitt- unranked power five teams that are just talented enough to be threatening, but not enough to be impressive. Even so, the Irish are still in position to get to the playoff and *maybe* break the curse of Touchdown Jesus.

Penn State’s season is finished. Losing a two score lead to Ohio State with eight minutes left at home was bad, but letting Michigan State come back and win at the end yesterday is a death blow. There will be no Big Ten title, no playoffs, nothing. They have to get it together now and win some games to get to a New Year’s Day Bowl.

Temple- yes, Temple. They were 0-2 to start, and lost to one-double-a (yes, I call it that) Villanova to open the year. Now they’re 4-3, and back in the AAC picture. Their remaining schedule is brutal- games against ranked teams like UCF and Cincinnati, to name some- but they look alright. They basically need a tough win somewhere to probably be bowl eligible.

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I’m going to close by complaining about one of my new, favorite apps from this campaign, Slack. I probably over lean on Slack to communicate with my team, but I’m not apologizing. I love Slack, except for one thing- you can’t send memes. In 2018, it should be illegal to have an app with no memes.

Someone fix this- pronto.

And What Will Become of Them?

In the days since John McCain’s funeral there have been two pressing questions: what will become of the (former) Republican “Establishment” and who will represent it? In the era of Donald Trump, who will take up McCain’s cause and fight to make America a leader in the world order, while upholding the cause of mainstream conservatism at home? What Republican will be the “maverick” that makes deals in the Senate, such as McCain-Feingold? Who among the Republicans will be the check on Trump’s wilder impulses, as McCain was on repealing the Affordable Care Act and opposing the cozying up of this White House to Putin’s Russia? There is some hope for Ben Sasse to serve that purpose. There is a sense that Mitt Romney could serve in that role, assuming he is elected to the Senate this Fall.

My honest assessment is that the real answer to these questions is no one, and that the GOP of McCain that we all imagine, it no longer exists. You can hope that a McSally, Romney, Sasse, or whoever else you want will be the savior, but you’ll probably be disappointed. We have seen would-be critics from Lindsey Graham to Marco Rubio, all the way over to Ted Cruz, all fold like cheap suits. We have seen Republicans with the spine to fight back, the Jeff Flakes and Bob Corkers of the world, end up falling in line when it’s time to vote, and choose to retire, rather than take Trump on. Even Rand Paul loves Russia now. Those who choose to fight Trump, like Mark Sanford, end up decimated in Trump’s wake. Maybe Mitt Romney will choose to fight Trump on a couple of issues, but it won’t be any real, constant resistance. As much as we have romanticized the McCain-Trump feud, it only existed on select political issues. It’s not as though McCain opposed Gorsuch, or voted against tax cuts.

There’s a reason George W. Bush is off painting pictures and John Boehner is driving on some highway singing “Zippidy Doo-Dah” for Labor Day– the Republican Party created a monster it’s old guard can’t control. From Ronald Reagan’s racist overtones of launching his 1980 campaign in Philadelphia, Mississippi to Dubbya running against gay marriage in 2004, the GOP stoked the flames of closet racism to win elections for a couple of generations and wondered how Trump happened. Paul Ryan’s talk of “makers and takers” and Newt Gingrich and Ronald Reagan beating on “welfare queens” created a sense of victimization in the GOP base. You can’t absolve the last couple of generations of Republican leaders for the current state of the party. With the rare exception of McCain, the rest of the GOP refused to tamp down the fires of birtherism during the first African-American Presidency.

I will grant the generation of McCain, the Bush Family, and the Doles that I think they were by and large above the real grotesque racism and bigotry that currently rules the GOP. I think Trump largely does disgust them. While I think they were complicit in creating the conditions for Trump, I agree that they couldn’t foresee this. Even so, the Trump movement is having no mercy on their brand of Republicanism. History will largely show them being overrun by it.

The reason that old-line conservatism is losing to Trumpism is because Trumpism is actually who their base always was. All the talk of “small government” and neoconservative war didn’t mean what they thought it meant to their base. The culture wars of God, gays, and guns wasn’t just a ploy to the Republican base. Men like Donald Trump knew that, while Mitt Romney did not. In the face of a more global, more diverse, more intellectual world, a huge chunk of America wanted someone like Donald Trump- someone who would oppose feminism, “the browning” of America, campus intellectuals, and an America that didn’t seem to value “their” way of life anymore. The motivating factor in conservative politics is stopping the liberal vision of America’s future. Nothing more, nothing less. If it takes giving rich people tax cuts to secure the funding for electoral victories that give them conservative judges and a White House that halts the changing world, the Republican base will take it. They will endure lies, corruption, and hypocrisy to defeat the liberal vision of America. Donald Trump promised them to reverse the Obama course in absolute, culture driven terms, and he didn’t dog-whistle about it. That’s why he owns the GOP now.

So as I said above, there is no new McCain coming, to the extent there ever was one. The “Republican Establishment” is dead, to the extent it ever existed, and it stands no chance against the blue-collar, white politics of Trumpism. What will become of them? At best, not much. At worst, ruin. One can hope the GOP’s future is the “younger” Republican libertarian ideals, which at least give lip service to a less bigoted party. I’m not betting the house on that right now.

Donald Trump, Impeachment, and the American Right

Donald Trump is in a lot of trouble. Ultimately speaking, he’s in serious jeopardy of being indicted and tried after his Presidency. His company and his Foundation have probably broken laws. His campaign almost certainly operated in a conspiracy with Russia to win the election, which is illegal, based on the statements of he and his son. He has probably used the powers of his office to obstruct justice. Many close associates of Trump’s are now facing prison. The situation for the President is full of peril.

This is probably the point where I remind you that none of that is likely to make a difference in your life. The only thing of impact to the public that can happen to Trump is his removal from office. That can only happen by his being defeated in 2020, or impeached and convicted in Congress before then. It’s too early to tell about 2020, but it is likely to be another cliffhanger finish, given how close 2016 was. That leaves the impeachment process, and the many pitfalls that Democrats could encounter along the way. Looking at them, I don’t believe Trump will be removed from office early, based on what we know.

The first step towards impeaching Trump is Special Counsel Robert Mueller issuing a report that details specific crimes that he believes Trump committed. For historical reference, the Starr Report leading to impeachment on Bill Clinton wasn’t issued until his second term, so we may be pretty far away. Then the House Judiciary Committee would draw up articles of impeachment, hold hearings on them, and have to vote them out. This step in the process really can’t begin until next year, and would probably require a Democratic House Majority to even have a chance. Only then would the full House consider impeachment, and again, a Democratic Majority is a pre-requisite to even consider that. After all of that, you get a Senate trial where 67 votes are needed to convict and remove Trump. There will not ever be 67 Democrats to push this. In other words, at some point Democrats will need some Republicans to hold Donald Trump accountable, as President.

So I guess I’m saying Trump is in real personal trouble, but the Trump Presidency is safe and secure as long as he’s sporting 90% support from Republicans. I suppose it is possible at some point that Senate Republicans will decide it’s in their self-interest to remove Trump, provided that Mike Pence is in no real trouble, and that their base turns on Donald Trump for some reason. What would that reason be though? Conspiracy with Russia? They’ve rationalized that. Crude conduct with women and paying hush money for cover-ups? They quite literally don’t care. Tax cuts for the rich and huge deficits? They’ve always supported that. Latino kids in cages? They think they shouldn’t be here in the first place.

The things that activist Democrats hate about Donald Trump are what his voters like about him. The societal change the left wants is what the Trumpers support, and what makes the “American Middle” squeamish. A large portion of the voters who will probably vote to give Democrats a Congressional majority are probably conflicted on the cultural issues that divide us, and will mostly be voting against Donald Trump for poor performance in office, not diametric opposition to his vision. The most offensive issues about Trump, to the left- his cheating and covering up affairs on his wives, his nationalistic view towards immigration, his “traditionalism” on social issues in general- are exactly the kind of things that probably make him safe from removal. Those in the “pink hats” hate him for it, those in the “red hats” love him for it.

Donald Trump is a reflection of the world view in Conservative America, and for that reason, Republicans in Congress won’t turn on him. Obviously things change, and something could change the calculus. That’s unlikely though. As a result, impeachment is really unlikely too.

American Politics 2040

Things change. The trajectory of things change. Nothing is set in stone that has not happened yet. This does not mean that you can’t take an honest look at your current trajectory and figure out where you are going. America could use that right now, but it’s leadership is simply unwilling or incapable of doing so. After the 2016 election, we need to really consider where it is we’re headed.

The Republican Party of Reagan and Nixon is changing, morphing before our eyes. They will become a more hard-line nationalist party, one that identifies heavily as white and traditional. They are still for low taxes and de-regulation, but are a more populist party that can support government “welfare” for those who they deem as “American.” They want to back away from being the world’s active superpower, particularly on matters of climate change and trade policy, and instead pursue a more isolationist world view on those matters. They are certainly not George W. Bush in his view of American leadership, instead agreeing more with Vladimir Putin’s regionalized powers view of the world. They reject the 20th Century, post World War II “western order” with our traditional allies in Western Europe, in part because they reject the globalist view of those countries. They’ll spend big on defense, but not to play “global policeman.” The Republican Party is becoming an “America First,” hard borders and isolationist economics party, one that embraces white identity and traditional values, is pro-military spending, dismantles collective safety nets in favor of arbitrary ones, and who opposes taxes and regulations to protect the public.

Democrats are on a trajectory that is quite different. The Democrats are becoming a fully globalist party. Global trade, collective action with our Western allies on global issues, a pluralistic identity, a more open immigration policy, and a very science driven policy process are some of the hallmarks of the Democratic future. Democrats are embracing more socialistic concepts and collective actions and solutions. Democrats embrace a more active global voice, a softer “national identity,” particularly on matters of race and language, and more integration with the world.

Over the next twenty years or so, the two parties will battle over this “America First,” traditional-nationalist view of the world, versus a more globalist, collective, Civil Rights driven world view. Election cycles will be volatile, and leadership will change more often. Primaries will push both parties more clearly into their corners. The current divisions in this country will be more stark. The need for money in our campaigns, along with gerrymandering and voter sorting, will produce more “pure” parties in terms of their differences and positions.

About twenty years from now, half of America will live in eight states. The most important two data points in determining if a state, district, or county is red or blue will be:

  • The percentage of non-white voters. This is fairly simple, straight forward, and easy to understand. If there are a large percentage of African-Americans, or certain groups of Latinos or Asians, you can expect Democrats to do well. If not, expect it to be red. The exception comes out of the second point-
  • The existence of major metropolitan markets that are “winning” in the global economy. If you have a New York or San Francisco, you’re blue. If you have a failing regional urban market or ones that are too small, you’re red. This is they key delineation point among white people. White people in large, successful urban places like Philadelphia or Washington are usually Democrats. White people in white collar suburbs near those kind of markets are swing voters who will lean left. White voters everywhere else are trending the other way. The higher education and earning white people will live in the bigger, successful job markets, and trend Democratic.
  • What does this mean in the long haul? By 2040, I have these states as blue:
    • New York
      New Jersey
      Massachusetts
      Delaware
      Maryland
      DC
      Virginia
      Georgia
      Illinois
      Texas
      New Mexico
      California
      Hawaii

    If you’re trying to think out loud on how many electoral votes that is, it should be about 220. Assuming Democrats win all of the Senate seats in these states, it’s 24 (If DC isn’t a state). Interestingly, these states should have just under 200 House seats, under my math, meaning the “friendliest” branch of the government for Democrats to win elections might be the House.

    What other states could be in play? Well, you’re looking for one of two things- major metropolitan areas that are attracting new economy jobs, and non-white voters. You need some sort of coalition between non-white voters and white voters who are “winning” in the 21st Century economy. What states have this?

    • North Carolina- I almost put this state with the group of blue states, because of the “Research Triangle” and Charlotte areas, but there are large rural swaths in this state that can and will probably keep it competitive. This will become to Democrats what Pennsylvania has been, a “must have,” in order to win.
    • Florida- I’m not overly bullish on Florida’s long term prospects for Democrats, in part because the Latino population is simply less liberal leaning than those in the West- in part because they come from different places and are less connected to the immigration issue. Florida will remain a competitive state though, because it is diverse, and has the Miami and Tampa areas that fit the bill as metropolitan areas.
    • Pennsylvania- Pennsylvania will not be the Democratic lock for national candidates that it was from 1988 through 2012, but it’s not going the wrong way completely anytime soon. Why? Philadelphia is a giant market, and to a lesser extent the Allegheny County (Pittsburgh area) will remain relevant. The state won’t remain cleanly “blue” though because Northeast PA is increasingly behaving like Central and Northwest PA already were. Democrats need to dig into the Lehigh Valley and Pocono regions in order to win statewide contests in the future. The polar opposition behavior of the rest of the state will make those areas the key.
    • Minnesota- In 2016, one of the under-reported stories of the election was how Minneapolis-St. Paul and their suburbs had to bail Democrats out. That is looking like the new norm. With some of the “generation Mondale” Democrats leaving the more rural Congressional seats, Democrats are at risk of atrophying further in those parts of the state. The “Twin Cities” will increasingly be pitted against more rural, conservative areas in competitive races.
    • Connecticut- How is Connecticut a swing-state in 20 years? I’m not very bullish on Democrats future hopes in New England right now. If you look right now, Democrats only hold two of the six Governorships. They could lose Connecticut this year. The region is very white. The only state with a mega-market in it is Massachusetts. What keeps this state from going away from Democrats? Suburban New York and Boston voters. Higher education centers and highly educated voters. Hartford. Even with those things, New England is quite white and not huge fans of taxes. Expect this state to be competitive.
    • Colorado- Put this state next to North Carolina as a state that I almost made Blue. Educated millennial voters have moved to metro Denver at a fast clip. The Latino vote should grow in Colorado moving forward. Even so, it’s a “Denver vs. the world” effect out there. In large sections of the state, Democrats probably won’t be overly competitive. This state, like Pennsylvania and Minnesota, will constantly come down to turnout in their largest metropolitan market. Denver isn’t as large as Philadelphia, so their margin of error will be a little smaller. Fortunately the state’s demographics are a little better than Pennsylvania’s in 20 years. It will still be a battle.
    • Nevada- There’s Las Vegas and the “rest of Nevada.” Democrats aren’t going to win much in rural Nevada, meaning their margins in Clark County will need to continue to decide elections. Democrats should continue to win the Las Vegas market, but they don’t win it as crazy big as one might think. Lots of older white people live in Clark County, which narrows the margins. Democrats are held up by a sizable Latino voter shares and organized labor’s considerable strength in Las Vegas. If Republican sabotage of labor weakens Vegas labor, this state may be red. Labor’s strength may decide this state’s political future.
    • Washington- If you remove the Seattle market from Washington, it’s already red. That divide probably won’t lessen in years to come. As long as Seattle remains a destination for young workers, Washington will remain blue. Still, this state’s political future will entirely ride on Seattle’s turnout, so it’s not a safe bet in twenty years.
    • Rhode Island- Either Rhode Island will continue to perform like a well-educated Boston suburb, or it will perform like an extremely white, Catholic state. Like Connecticut, I like the chances of Democrats better in the southern part of New England than the north. I still think Democrats will have to fight for it.
    • Oregon- Take everything I wrote about Washington, and put Portland in the place of Seattle. While this state is traditionally liberal, it’s also largely rural and white, which I’m predicting to be the data points that matter. Can Portland keep it Blue? Maybe. It’s not a lock though.
    • Vermont- How can I put Vermont here? The home of Bernie Sanders as a swing state? Well, there’s a few things to consider here. First, they have a Republican Governor right now, which isn’t terribly odd for them. Second, it’s very rural. Third, it’s a very pro-gun state. Vermont’s perceived liberalism may not be as “baked in” as others think, especially as the parties shift. Burlington is not a mega-market that can keep Vermont “blue” on it’s own.
  • So how important are those states in 20 years? About 125 electoral votes worth. 22 Senate seats worth. Another 100 or so House seats. If Democrats do well in these states, they can cobble together Electoral College victories and small House majorities. Unfortunately, there doesn’t appear to be a Senate majority between these states and all the ones in the base.
  • What this means of course, is that Democrats will need to keep several states competitive enough to win sometimes that I did not put into this mix. Perhaps Arizona will belong in this group, or Mississippi, or South Carolina, none of whom are on my current list. I’m not bullish on the current trajectory of Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio- mostly because their major urban markets have seen major population declines, and I am not certain they can overtake the declining returns of national Democrats in their more rural areas- but Democrats will need to compete in them and occasionally win to build governing majorities. I should include New Hampshire and Maine here, two rural, white New England states that don’t feel like they trend with us in this re-alignment. These states moved far towards the Republicans in Trump’s 2016 win and have Republicans as Governors currently. Even so, Democrats probably can’t check out on them.
  • Obviously trends can change. The middle-aged and elder Trump voters and their brand of politics will begin dying during the next 20 years, and young Republicans could make the party more libertarian. That may calm some of the white-nationalist rhetoric- though I’m doubtful, and I know that doesn’t drastically change their policies. The internal Democratic fight- of identity vs. ideology- isn’t over yet. Things can happen. Changes will happen.
  • No matter how much I shift things though, I keep coming back to the same two definitive data points- non-white voters and major metropolitan, global marketplaces. No matter how I apply those, the future for Democrats, on the current trajectory, is threading a needle in every election. The Democrats may never lose another popular vote for President in this country, but have many repeats of 2000 or 2016 in the future. Because Democrats win many of their House seats with more than 75% of the vote, even in a country where the majority want a Democratic House, Democrats May never see majorities the size of the one they had in 2009-10. Because half the country will live in eight states in 2040, and most of the non-white votes will be in those states, the Senate may very well simply exist to thwart the desires of the nation’s majority through a safe, conservative Senate Republican majority.
  • Here’s the part though that is most concerning. The open antipathy between the bases of the two parties may create a situation in the future where the minority of the country, the rural white states, rules with an iron fist over the majority of the country in those eight big states. I’m not sure if it will rise to the level of apartheid South Africa, or Saddam’s Iraq, but the Trump era must make you concerned about it. If “owning the Libs” is the motivating factor of the Republican Party, rather than governing an increasingly diverse country and improving outcomes for even those across the partisan divide, our union will be severely tested in ways not seen since the Civil War. That’s a dark future to look forward to.
  • Trollmageddon 2018

    Russia infiltrated our electoral process, and that’s just a fact. We can question if they hacked voting machines, we can debate the meaning of collusion, but that’s not changing the things we know they did do. They did purchase Facebook ads designed to hurt Hillary Clinton, in both the primaries and the general election. They did hack the DNC’s emails. Kremlin allies did meet with people around the Trump campaign. They did set up fake news sites, publishing false articles about impending indictments for Hillary and her family. They did set up phony writers in American left-wing outlets to push Democrats against Hillary and the party. All of this is real. All of this is fact. You can interpret it as you wish, but not deny it.

    It’s over now though. There is no way to re-litigate 2016 and make Hillary the winner. Donald Trump is now in the White House, and I have great faith that Bob Mueller’s investigation will figure out who committed what crimes. Will we ever know if the Russians literally hacked our election? Maybe not. I trust Mueller’s investigation will answer the possible.

    This leaves us to ponder what lies ahead. The 2018 mid-terms are coming, and they promise to be insane. The primaries in both parties could be bloody. Democrats will see a fight between people committed to Civil Rights, worker protections, the environment, and moving the country forward, and people who literally want to have a Socialist revolution that they haven’t thought through the details of yet. Republicans will see a war between people who want to cut taxes for the rich and slash the social safety-net of working Americans, literally taking the food from mouths, health insurance from those who need, and roofs from over heads, and actual Nazi/White Nationalist types being lead by Steve Bannon. We get to have these fights before we have the general election argument over the insanity of Trump America. Excited yet?

    Does anybody think this will be any cleaner or nicer than 2016 was? Does anybody think those accounts with cartoons and dogs as their avatars that followed Nomiki Konst into attack on Hillary supporting Democrats aren’t coming back for more during these primaries? Does anyone think that openly racist Russian troll accounts, like the “Tennessee GOP” one that Twitter took down, aren’t coming back? Does anyone think Russia won’t attack Democrats in the Fall, knowing that a Democratic Congress will insure a completed investigation of their acts of war against our country? Let’s be honest, even real people like Katie Halper (who I wish wasn’t real) will be spewing leftist hatred towards any Democrat who dares to not bow at the altar of Bernie moving forward. If anything, 2016 will look nice, next to 2018. We are heading towards an absolute internet doomsday, as these freakish alt-right and alt-left voices attempt to destroy anyone who dares stand in the way of their goals. Outside interference, doxxing, and general nasty behavior will be the norm.

    Some of these characters are obviously automated, and not real people. Some of these people are paid trolls, grifters that are here to waste your time and sap your enthusiasm. All of this is an attack on our democracy. It’s only going to get worse as we go. I have a few tips for dealing with these people, and trying to keep your sanity in the process:

    1. Block liberally- If someone is trying to waste your time with repetitive debate, or trying to tell you how you’re evil for supporting a $12 minimum wage instead of $15, or just sending you screenshots of yourself, block them. I usually make a snarky remark back at them first, just so the person on the other end feels like a loser, but the main point is to block them and not waste very much time on people who are losers.
    2. Report liberally- If someone who fits the profile mentioned above, and they say something abusive or curse at you, report them. If they send graphic sexual images at you, report them. Obviously block them too, but report them in hopes of knocking them off of Twitter, real or fake.
    3. Know a troll or dead-ender when you see one- If you get into a debate/fight with some famous leftist- like say Matt Bruenig or his wife- and a bunch of people swarm you, they are either bots or paid trolls. If a bunch of people with roses in their bio swarm you, they are either loser trolls or paid trolls, if not outright bots. If they have a small follower count and are part of the swarm, they’re either a troll or bot. If someone starts spewing racist or sexist content, they could be a paid troll from the other side, or even the “dirtbag left.” Most of the people attacking Neera Tanden are just trolls and wackos, ignore them. Anyone with poor grammar who jumps in just to attack Democrats (on the behalf of Trump or Bernie) is a Russian troll. They often use the same lines of attack (“so-and-so won’t f**k you” for instance), and try to use bios and profile pictures as lines of attack quite often. They’re not hard to figure out. If you see them, report them and block them. It’ll save you time.
    4. There are real hardliners- I’ve had my fair share of Twitter battles, even some with people whom I “agree” with on the issues. There is a fairly prominent resistance tweeter from Brooklyn for instance, who attempted to “dox” me (and failed miserably because she’s an imbecile) because she didn’t like my arguments against a full litmus test on abortion rights in the Democratic Party. This young lady isn’t worth my time any more than Katie Halper and Matt Bruenig were from Socialist land. There are some serious psychos out there in our political world, and not all of them are paid Russian bots. I suggest not wasting too much time arguing with overly impassioned real people either. You’re never going to make any progress with them.

    This is my best advice for surviving what is likely to be a crazy year. It is my hope that Twitter will clean this up and start enforcing their terms of service in a reasonable way, but I’m not holding my breath. The best way to handle the lunatic fringers and their virulent attacks is largely to ignore them, to report them as much as possible, and to realize they represent a small fringe of society. Most Bernie Sanders supporters are nothing like Winnie Wong, and even many Trump supporters aren’t like Cassandra Fairbanks (though this point pushes the limits of truth sometimes). Almost nobody in real life is like a Russian bot or a DSA troll. Limit your interactions with them, and you deny them the lifeblood of their existence- your time and attention.