Remember the “Bowling Alone” book? Well, it turns out that “Big Bowling” is literally trying to finish the story. Bowlero, the largest operator of bowling alleys in America, is basically buying bowling alleys and eliminating their local leagues to make room for higher income players. Sounds a lot like housing. Anthony Edwards didn’t start last night because he had to take a shit. No lie. Jason Kelce is working the Masters. Hell yeah. It’s Final Four weekend and Duke isn’t in it. That’s good. Arizona seems to be the favorite, but never count Hurley’s UCONN out. The UCONN women lead the women’s field, and they meet South Carolina in the annual war on the court, while UCLA and Texas meet in the other game. Baseball began with an opening night on Netflix. I actually liked it. I like NBC’s Sunday night set up too. Check back in a couple weeks for strong opinions of anything we’re seeing right now. If you look right now, Bryce Harper and Shohei Ohtani suck. Enjoy that if you’d like. Some guy named Wiemers started 10-for-10 for the Nationals. Move over, Mickey Mantle.
I didn’t mention Iran this week. It’s not going great for anyone. We’re bombing the shit out of them, they’re closing the Straight of Hormuz, so gas is way up, and they’re fighting back with drones. I mean, I wonder how long it is before Trump either loses interest or does something insane?
And finally, it is Easter Week. Whether you celebrate the holiday or not, enjoy the time.
Finally, baseball season is back. Tonight the Yankees and Giants will open the season, and there will be baseball almost every day (the day after the All-Star Game excluded) until November. Contrary to what some would have you believe, it is not inevitable that the Dodgers will win the World Series, Judge and Ohtani will win the MVP’s, and Skenes and Skubal will win the Cy Youngs, it’s just probable. We are coming off of Venezuela (!!!) winning the World Baseball Classic and an all-time seven game World Series for the ages. What we’re going to get next will be fun.
Besides Judge, Ohtani, Harper, Soto, and Altuve, you can learn some new names. Bobby Witt Jr. is the best player in the world that we don’t talk about enough. Roman Anthony is going to be a breakout star. Young players will be rising all season. Guys you might have been ready to bury- Zack Wheeler, Sandy Alcantara, Gerrit Cole- will rise from the ashes. And yes, Ronald Acuna Jr. is back, for real this time.
Let’s launch right into some predictions, beginning in the division of the defending champions…
The National League West
Your about to get a recurring theme here in the National League- a favorite, three very competitive teams, and a team way in the back. There is no favorite quite as far out ahead as the Dodgers this year, and with good reason- they have the deepest, best roster in the sport. While they did win the last two World Series, that depth helps them the least in the playoffs, and the most over the 162 games of the season. The Dodgers open the season with a ridiculously talented rotation- Yamamoto, Glasnow, Ohtani, Sheehan, and Sasaki- and that’s with Blake Snell out into May, top prospect River Ryan sent to the minors, and Justin Wrobleski sent to the bullpen as a long man. The Dodgers again have about eight starters, and will be able to manage how many regular season innings Glasnow, Ohtani, and Snell throw before putting them into the postseason rotation. Last year that cost them a few wins in the regular season, but not nearly enough to make it close. Meanwhile they will let Tommy Edman start the season healing up and get prospect Alex Freehand some at-bats in a platoon at second base with veteran Miguel Rojas. Of course they added Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz to an already really good team. I’d be surprised if they’re not in the 100 win territory. There are lots of complaints about them buying titles, but I think that overstates the reality they have. They have a two way player who is the second best offensive player in baseball, an All-Star level starting pitcher, and differing almost all of his paycheck until he retires. They have a sweetheart deal with MLB that allows them to pocket more of their local television deal money because of a past bankruptcy. But more importantly, they spend their profits on upgrading their team, and they do a good job scouting and developing players. Some of it is shitty and should stop, some of it is just being a good franchise. They were smart enough to spend their money on Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts, so maybe people should give them some credit.
Behind them are three teams who are to varying degrees very good. The Padres were an NL Wild Card team last year. The Diamondbacks were in the 2023 World Series. The Giants just had a sneaky good off-season. None of this is extremely predictive of where they are for this season, but it at least makes you take notice. San Diego remains one of the most fierce line-ups in the league, despite adding bargain pieces like Miguel Andujar and Nick Castellanos in the off-season. Some bargain pieces work, some don’t, but a lineup with Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, Cronenworth, Merrill, and Laureano will wear down pitchers all season. While their top two starters, King and Pivetta are both coming off of good years (it will take me a bit to believe in Pivetta as a top starter), the rotation as a whole isn’t scary any more. Walker Buehler was another bargain hunter’s buy and will be their number five. Their bullpen remains their strength, despite losing Robert Suarez, as Mason Miller looked like superman in the WBC, but some of the depth they had at the end of the season is gone. This team will be at it’s best when it comes out and hits early in the game and gets to the final third of the game with a lead.
If it was 2018, the Diamondbacks would be terrifying with Carlos Santana and Nolan Arenado. Alas, it’s not. The Diamondbacks lineup is interesting. You have youthful Corbin Carroll (25), Geraldo Perdomo (26), Jordan Lawlar (23), Gabriel Moreno (26), and Alek Thomas (25). You have 30 somethings Ketel Marie (32), Arenado (34), Santana (40), Pavin Smith (30), and James McCann (35). IF everything meshes at once, it’s a good lineup. If not, it can be a disaster. Their rotation is similar. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are back at the top of the rotation, and if they have a bit of a bounce back year and Corbin Burnes gets healthy by midseason and is immediately himself, they have a fearsome rotation. Three “if’s.” Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt, and Eduardo Rodriguez are all pretty decent mid-rotation options though, so even if one or two of the “if’s” work out, they are a good group. Paul Sewald provides a veteran closer, but their bullpen really doesn’t stand out as either great or awful going in. This team is probably the biggest enigma in the division.
I praised San Francisco’s offseason and I meant it. This was not a bad team to begin with. They seemed to be the only team not afraid to sign three-time batting champion Luis Arraez, which I think was great, provided they use him correctly and don’t over expose him in the field. They added Harrison Bader as well, coming off of a career year, and as long as they don’t expect him to match that in every category, he’s a good move. Factor in last year’s addition of Rafael Devers and the recent addition of Willy Adames and I really like the offensive upgrades. This team is still pitching based though, and their top two starters Logan Webb and Robbie Ray can certainly match up with any top two in baseball, and have the ability to be the best two pitchers in the division (I said ability). Adrian Houser, Todd Mahle, and Landen Roupp behind them simply have to hold up. Their bullpen isn’t full of big names, but generally should be reliable most of the time. This team simply has to score more runs, and that will really decide how their season goes.
I could sit here and talk about Colorado for a while and tell you how bad they are like everyone else. Their fans don’t need or want that out of me or anyone else at this point. I actually like that they brought in Michael Lorenzen and now can put him, Kyle Freeland, and Jose Quintana together at the front of their rotation and at least look like a professional organization out there. Beyond that, about the best thing I can say is they’re a little closer to not paying Arenado and Bryant to not play for them anymore. That’s the best I’ve got here.
Dodgers 104-58
San Diego Padres 90-72
San Francisco Giants 84-78
Arizona Diamondbacks 78-84
Colorado Rockies 54-108
The American League East
The last two American League Champions are in this division, so you know it’s pretty good. Let’s start in Toronto, because they were so close to winning the championship that it probably still hurts. Fortunately, they still should be good, unless you buy the theory that they’ll revert to the 2024 version. I really like the Kazuma Okamoto signing, presuming he can stick at third base. Presuming he does, it replaces Bichette’s bat in the lineup and allows them to improve their defense in the middle infield wildly with Clement and Gimenez there. This lineup should be a good hitting group, and if Okamoto works they can be better defensively than last year. Their rotation probably goes about as far as their health. I have little worries about Kevin Gausman, and I know the talent of Dylan Cease, but behind them it gets interesting. Cody Ponce was so good in Korea that the Jays signed him and are making him their #3. Max Scherzer is 41, but did come through in the postseason last year. Eric Lauer was also literally a Korean League pitcher a year or two back and is now locking down the five. Shane Bieber will probably be back to health at some point, they think. Jose Berrios should find his way back too. Trey Yesavage was a postseason hero last year in the same season he pitched games in Dunedin (low-A), but now he’s on the IL. Can they get five good, healthy pitchers at all times this year? We’ll see. Their bullpen is fine if Jeff Hoffman shakes off the World Series and stays healthy this year. Can everything go right again?
I’m not sure I loved the Yankees offseason. Were they as urgent as their fans feel? No. Bellinger is back though, so is Trent Grisham, and Chisholm didn’t leave. Aaron Judge is the best offensive player on the planet. Ben Rice will be expected to be a bigger part of this lineup though, Giancarlo Stanton has to stay in the lineup, and Ryan McMahon has to at least be his career average self. That’s because shortstop is still questionable, and this team has three platoons in their lineup. The Yankees rotation is perfectly fine, with an ace (Max Fried), a sometimes inconsistent, but very capable #2 (Carlos Rodon), and they hope a returning ace (Gerrit Cole). Continued success from Cam Shlittler, Will Warren, and Clarke Schmidt would really help. I’m not sure anyone knows what to expect from Luis Gil right now, least of which Gil. The addition of Ryan Weathers might not have seemed necessary, but I think they’ll be pleased they signed him. I think David Bednar will love closing in New York and Camilo Doval could be very good in the 8th. They probably just benefit from not having Devin Williams. Spencer Jones and Jasson Dominguez in AAA was not something I expected back in November.
The Boston Red Sox both have a really good and really overrated rotation, and that will have to carry them a bit. Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suarez are a serious top three. Crochet is a legit top three to five pitcher, Gray and Suarez are both solid two’s, but some prognosticators are going a bit overboard with their projections. Brayan Bello and Connelly Early are nice young arms, and give the Sox probably the best five in the division. The lineup lost it’s best two players (Devers and Bregman) since last year’s opening day, but added Willson Contreras and hopes for the big breakout season from Roman Anthony that I think will happen. Assuming Aroldis Chapman stays timeless, the back end of their bullpen is pretty nasty. This team’s IL list to start the season looks like a group that could win some actual MLB games, so this team’s ceiling may rise as the season continues on.
I’m not sure if Baltimore is going anywhere, but they should be a really fun team to watch. An already potential top tier offense added Pete Alonso and his guaranteed 30 bombs a year. Gunnar Henderson is a straight up top ten player in baseball. Adley Rutschman is due for a return to glory. Jackson Holliday is a candidate for a major breakout. Samuel Basallo and Jeremiah Jackson are joining Henderson, Rutschman, Blaze Alexander, Coby Mayo, Colton Cowser, and Ryan Mountcastle as sub-30 year olds getting serious at-bats. I expect this lineup to rake, and they’ll have to in order to win games. The rotation of Chris Bassitt, Zach Eflin, Shane Baz, Trevor Rogers, and Kyle Bradish can’t be worse than last year’s crew, but lacks a true top of the rotation candidate and instead is more of a collection of mid-rotation guys behind a two (when healthy and on). Ryan Helsley as a closer should be an absolute experience, and I mean that in the terrifying sense if he’s like last year’s finish (but if he reverts to what he once was, maybe for hitters). Expect a lot of 10-8 baseball games at Camden Yards this Summer.
What do you write about the Rays? I like Junior Caminero a lot. Their lineup has three platoons in it. Carson Williams excites some people at shortstop. They signed Cedric Mullins. Is this good? I like Shane McClanahan. They have three closers. I guess I like that they got Gavin Lux? Steven Matz is going to be a starter for them in 2026. Does this sound like a playoff team to you? I mean, it doesn’t to me, and yet they do a better job of piecing together a bunch of guys who make no sense together than anyone. Seriously.
Boston Red Sox 94-68
Toronto Blue Jays 91-71
New York Yankees 88-74
Baltimore Orioles 76-86
Tampa Bay Rays 68-94
The American League Central
I think all roads lead to Chicago, but for our purposes we’ll say that’s Cleveland and start there. How many teams have a few key players snagged in a gambling investigation and then come back from like 15 games to win a division? Yeah, no one. Jose Ramirez is certified a sustained top ten player in the league for a while now and is under appreciated for what he does. Stephen Kwan is a throwback to when not everything was about hitting homers. Beyond that the lineup is human, and will rely on Rhys Hoskins reclaiming past glory and a gaggle of 20 somethings sustaining their finish from last season. Tanner Bibbee and Gavin Williams headline a rotation that is very solid on the whole. Cade Smith is a beast closer, but the bullpen behind him will need a couple of guys to step up. Is this team good? Yes. Can it threepeat? TBD.
In terms of pure talent, Detroit is the team to beat here. Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Parker Meadows, and new arrival Kevin McGonigle are young talent that few teams can match. The lineup has some veterans too, and seems like a good mix. The rotation of Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, and the returning Justin Verlander is for my money the most dependable in the American League. It’s tough to hate on Kenley Jansen, Will Vest, and Kyle Finnegan at the end of ballgames, and the arms behind them are solid too. So that’s it, this is the best team on paper. They also blew a massive lead last year and haven’t advance past the NLDS as a group. So ask your questions.
It’s hard to cheer agains the Royals. Kansas City has potentially the MVP in Bobby Witt Jr. Salvadore Perez, like Witt, really has loved playing in Kansas City, and they both hope to get a ring there. Vinnie Pasquantino was a big part of that Team Italy in the WBC. This team has a professional lineup, even if it isn’t as deep on paper as the first two. Their rotation looks to me like a collection of two and three starters who are dependable but won’t win the Cy Young. Ex-Phillies Carlos Estevez and Matt Strahm anchor an improved bullpen. Last year wasn’t a great year for this group, but the talent is there to do more.
This might be news, but the Twins are going to try to win games with the guys they have. The bullpen is uninspiring and the rotation behind Joe Ryan is a combination of capable major leaguers and unproven talents. The lineup features Byron Buxton, and he’s elite, as long as he wants to stay. Adding Josh Bell will help them score runs, and they’ll probably trade him later. After that, it’s guys who are passable in the league and a few of them can definitely give you a little more. This team is headed for fourth or fifth. They are trying to see what sticks.
I won’t speak ill of the Pope’s team, but all you need to know is that they spelled Munetaka Murakami’s name wrong after making him their biggest signing in a few years. They’ll improve by dumping Luis Robert Jr.’s .200 batting average and $20 million salary, but we’ll see beyond that in the lineup. I’m a big fan of Colson Montgomery and think him and Murakami could be the beginnings of something really special in Chicago. I also like them getting Luisangel Acuna back for Robert. With those things said, this year won’t be special. The front end of their rotation is young, which I like, but they won’t outmatch the top teams in this division yet. Seranthony Dominguez and Jordan Hicks are in their bullpen this year, which aren’t bad moves for a team with no expectations, but also doesn’t sound like a cinderella run.
Detroit Tigers 96-66
Cleveland Guardians 85-77
Kansas Royals 81-81
Chicago White Sox 66-96
Minnesota Twins 62-100
The National League Central
I’ve spent the last few days making fun of the Cubs for keeping Michael Conforto and Scott Kingery on their 2026 roster, but if we’re being honest, I watched their camp close enough to say they got the right guys. I’ll save you the reading and tell you outright that I think this team wins the division. The rotation is very solid, with Matthew Boyd, Edward Cabrera, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, and Cade Horton. Closer Daniel Palencia headlines a group that lost Brad Keller, but still should be good enough. The addition of Alex Bregman to a lineup that already has Pete Crow-Armstrong, Nico Hoerner, and eventually, Seiya Suzuki. This team will win a lot.
Trading your ace after making the NLCS is poverty behavior. Dont sleep on Milwaukee though. This is still a young, stacked lineup anchored by stars Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, and William Contreras. Yes, they traded the ace I mentioned, but they traded Corbin Burnes and got better. They are betting that Brandon Woodruff returning and Jacob Misiorowski in year two will make up for it. Newcomer Brandon Sproat has a lot of talent too. Trevor Megill anchors a good bullpen, but not their best of recent years.
Cincinnati made the playoffs last year and no one seems to remember. Believe it or not, their pitching is considered their strength. Andrew Abbott leads the staff and people will watch him closely to see if he repeats that. Nick Lodolo will start on the IL but has shown promise. Brady Singer is the “old man” at 29, with Chase Burns (23), Jose Franco (25), Rhett Lowder (24), and Brandon Williamson (27) rounding out the group. The offense added Eugenio Suarez as their DH, a sneaky good move. Elly De La Cruz is the face of the lineup and one of my favorite non-Phillies in the game. This group improved a ton defensively getting Ke’Bryan Hayes last year at the deadline. As for the bullpen, Emilio Pagan is the primary closer, but after that there are questions. Losing Nick Martinez could hurt, as he filled many roles there.
Pittsburgh, to be blunt, disappointed me the last few years, and there’s a risk of that again, because I think this team is better than they probably are. To be blunt, this rotation is nasty. Paul Skenes is a freak, but more on that later. Mitch Keller, Braxton Ashcraft, and Bubba Chandler all have the ability to be outstanding. Carmen Mlodzinski as the fifth starter is a question mark, but he’s a solid swing man out of the pen. They brought Gregory Soto in to help the middle relief get to Dennis Santana with leads, but they are a question mark. The lineup is greatly improved, adding Marcel Ozuna, Ryan O’Hearn, and Brandon Lowe. The downside is it’s still only average unless Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, or Henry Davis bounce back offensively. Or they call up Konnor Griffin and see how ready he is.
The St. Louis Cardinals are finally accepting their rebuild. I actually like what they’re doing, but this probably won’t be any good this year. Behind #1 starter Matthew Liberatore is an unproven, but younger staff. The bullpen is kind of a work in progress and I’m guessing JoJo Romero will be traded sooner than later. The lineup isn’t ready to compete, but you can be excited about JJ Wetherholt, Nate Gorman, Masyn Winn, and Ivan Herrera. Also, keep your eye on a Jordan Walker possible breakout.
Chicago Cubs 93-69
Milwaukee Brewers 84-78
Cincinnati Reds 81-81
Pittsburgh Pirates 78-84
St. Louis Cardinals 66-96
The National League East
I will hold off on talking about my Phillies until last. Let’s start in Washington, D.C. This is going to be ugly. Be exited about James Wood. Probably C.J. Abrams too. Keibert Ruiz is in a make or break year. Opening day starter Cade Cavalli has some talent. After that, things get rough. This is a brutal division and they’re not very good, and sort of re-starting their rebuild.
Atlanta finished fourth last year. To be fair, their Spring Training was worse. They lost their shortstop before camp, their DH got suspended for the season for drugs, and one of their two aces is starting the year hurt. With all of that said, the season *should* be better. Chris Sale is healthy and Spencer Strider’s injury isn’t his arm. Ronald Acuna is healthy and primed to contend for an MVP. Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II seem healthy and ready for a bounce back. A good Matt Olson and Austin Riley make this team real. But I’d be more excited about Drake Baldwin than all of them. The bullpen kept Raisel Iglesias and added Robert Suarez which should allow them to hold leads. The pitching injuries added up through camp though and are their biggest problem to start the season.
Miami had a very nice season last year, especially after June 1st, so of course they traded multiple arms. Sandy Alcantara is around, at least for now, but the group behind him isn’t quite what ended last year. The bullpen added Pete Fairbanks to Tyler Phillips to make a pretty good back end of the bullpen tandem. Exactly one position player on the opening day roster is over 30, and Kyle Stowers is hurt, so the offense is suspect. I think they’ll be way ahead of Washington, but this could be a tough season if they don’t find some gems.
So, um, the Mets. You know, my second favorite team in New York. Out the door went Pete Alonso, Edwin Diaz, Jeff McNeil, and Brandon Nimmo. Top prospect Brandon Sproat and the still young Luisangel Acuna got shipped out in trades. In came Freddy Peralta (great move), Bo Bichette (very good move, if you ignore the price), Jorge Polanco (would have been more solid if he was at second), Marcus Semien (nice defensive player), Luis Robert Jr. (over priced, can’t hit, fantastic defense), and Devin Williams (this could go either way). Polanco and Bichette have never played their new positions. Dare I say, the outside additions won’t make up for the 30-40 homers, 35+ saves, former batting champion, and long tenured member of the high end of their order, and well, they won 83 games with those guys. Peralta and Bichette probably even it out, but it’s not good enough. But… and it’s a big but… this team is better than 2025. The reason is solid player development and young guys on the roster. Nolan McLean might only be held back by the organization, and could legitimately be their #2 starter, this year. Putting Carson Benge in right field might be premature, but it is 100% the right move. Francisco Alvarez is still young and talented. Bret Baty and Mark Vientos have both been up and down, but are both young. If any of these guys reach their potential this year, a team with Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor should pass 90 wins and cruise into the postseason.
So, the Phillies… they’re “running it back”… on a 96 win season. You know, I’m good with that. For all of the talk of Harper, Schwarber, and Turner struggling in the Dodgers series and needing help, the Dodgers big trio of Ohtani, Freeman, and Betts was arguably worse. The pitching was really good for both. The series came down to Robertson and Strahm’s 7th inning in game one, Turner’s errant throw home and Nick Castellanos running into an out in game two, and Kerkering’s throw in game four. Robertson, Strahm, and Castellanos are gone. What’s back? A top three to five rotation in baseball that will get more of Zack Wheeler than last year. Schwarber won the NL home run title, Turner won the NL batting title, and neither seems to be slowing down yet. Bryce Harper is looking healthy and should be expected to bounce back majorly. The bullpen has three legitimate beasts at the end and depth out to five, at least. This team does become more league average as the lineup moves beyond its third hitter, but it doesn’t really go below that anywhere. Justin Crawford hit .334 with an .863 OPS last season in AAA, and while those numbers would be unbelievable, even getting close to that would really improve the Phillies. Aidan Miller’s impending arrival sometime late in the Summer is also super exciting- and could tip the scales.
Philadelphia Phillies 96-66
New York Mets 91-71
Atlanta Braves 86-76
Miami Marlins 76-86
Washington Nationals 58-104
The American League West
Not enough people are talking about Seattle. This team was one win from being in the World Series instead of Toronto. This team has a positively badass rotation lead by Logan Gilbert on Opening Day, but not dropping off at all with Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Emerson Hancock. Their bullpen lacks big names, but was more than effective last year. Hopefully Cal Raleigh can be nicer to Randy Arozarena, because they are big parts of a big time lineup. Julio Rodriguez has superstar talent and can take this team to new heights and Josh Naylor is certified.
For so many years the Houston Astros dominated this division. Hunter Brown, Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows, and Christian Javier put together four starters that give them hope of a return to glory, while the fifth starter spot will likely move around a lot. The bullpen has the potential to go either way, lacking that marquee name they’ve had for years, but having plenty of depth. Some of the big names in the lineup- Altuve, Alvarez, and Correa- are still around, but are joined by a younger core now that features players like Cam Smith. Ironically, a lot rides on a big bounce back by Christian Walker from an awful first season in Houston.
The Texas Rangers may not be a trendy pick to win, but I love that rotation. Nate Eovaldi and Jacob de Grom might not be young, but they’re both still good. Mackenzie Gore, Jack Leiter, and Kumar Rocker are all young, talented, and unproven to different levels. If everything clicks between health and talent, they’re as good as anyone. The bullpen is unproven, but talented. Corey Seager is the face of the lineup and a certified boss. They added Brandon Nimmo and Andrew McCutchen, which are very different moves. Joc Pederson could be fun in Texas.
The Athletics (I initially wrote Oakland) is like Baltimore, really fun, but probably not ready to contend. Luis Severino is the only starter with a long track record and their ballpark isn’t known as super pitcher friendly. Their bullpen is similar. The lineup though? Fun. Nick Kurtz and Jacob Wilson are ballers. Brent Rooker has consistently been a top five DH for a few years now. Shea Langeliers is hitting his prime. Denzel Clarke is fun to watch. Jeff McNeil provides them a veteran hitter. They need to score a lot to win, can they?
Anaheim, Los Angeles, whatever I’m supposed to call the Angels- it’s going to be a while. Mike Trout is there, assuming he plays enough, so that’s worth watching I guess? It’s sad he’s rotting there like this, he’s one of the best players I ever saw. Jorge Soler will hit some bombs. I like Jo Adell and Josh Lowe. The lineup on the whole isn’t great. The rotation isn’t much better and their bullpen includes Jordan Romano, so you know what that is.
Seattle Mariners 98-64
Houston Astros 90-72
Texas Rangers 82-80
Sacramento Athletics 74-88
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 60-102
Season Awards
So I’ll get it out of the way- Judge and Ohtani are the clear MVP favorites and Skubal and Skenes for Cy Young are the same. Let’s be creative for a moment and assume they all fail to win. So who are the picks then? For AL MVP, the next four (in order) for me are Bobby Witt Jr., Roman Anthony, Julio Rodriguez, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. For the NL MVP, again in order I’m going Juan Soto, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Bryce Harper, and Ronald Acuna Jr. In the NL Cy Young race, my top four in order are Zack Wheeler (yes, what a story that would be), Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Logan Webb, and Cristopher Sanchez. In the AL Cy Young race, my top four are Garrett Crochet, Bryan Woo, Jacob de Grom, and Max Fried. Now again, the favorites are the real favorites, but what fun is that.
Konnor Griffin will arrive in the majors soon and win the NL Rookie of the year, with Nolan McLean, JJ Wetherholt, Justin Crawford, Carson Benge, and Andrew Painter all hanging around. Kevin McGonigle will be the AL winner, with Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto both contending. Dan Wilson will be AL Manager of the Year and Craig Counsell will win the NL.
Now, the Playoffs…
In the AL I have Seattle as the top seed and Detroit as second. That means Boston plays New York and Toronto plays Houston. In the NL I have LA as the top seeds, Philadelphia as two, and the Cubs meeting the Braves and the Mets meeting the Padres.
I think the Braves will be healthy by this point, pitching wise, meaning a tough match up for the Cubs. Steeler’s return this season will be just enough for a Cubs win. I like the Mets over the Padres too.
Houston upsets Toronto to advance and well… that other series… damn. Fried, Cole, and Rodon vs. Crochet, Suarez, and Gray… I’ll take the Yankees.
In the NLDS, I have the Dodgers beating the Mets up, largely on pitching and my Phillies outlasting the Cubs.
In the ALDS, I’ll take the Mariners to edge out Houston and the Yankees to beat Detroit in an epic.
In the NLCS, I’ll just say I think the Phillies can win this series and the series too. The Dodgers have to be favored, right? And every time I pick them, they lose. So, fine, LA wins again, because Ohtani walks a couple times.
In the ALCS, Seattle beats New York in another nail biter. Sad for Judge if this happens.
Again, I’m picking the Dodgers, because they have the best roster and I hope it jinxes them.
If you’re still stumbling, you drank too much. Happy week after St. Patrick’s Day. They told me not to, but I did. I took Florida in some brackets, Arizona in others. Figures that the one who is the defending champions were the ones who burned me. March Madness gave us the expected, such as Duke, Arizona, Michigan, Michigan State, and UCONN, and little to no fun. For the second straight year, and second time in the modern era, all the teams in the Sweet 16 come out of The Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12, and Big East. In the era of the portal and NIL, good players leave mid-majors after two years to go play on power programs. Hey, at least we have St. John’s. At least it’s not the women’s tournament either, which is basically just UCONN, UCLA, and South Carolina dogging teams until they get to each other. Texas and their enormous athletics budget arrived as a #1 in the women’s tournament too, and has lived up to it, while their men won three games last week. Local teams Lehigh, Villanova, and Penn all got run out of the men’s side as well. Villanova and Princeton’s women were both sent packing too. Unrelated, but I lost every parlay I tried.
Penn State won the NCAA Wrestling title in the least shocking result ever. Meanwhile, Venezuela beat the United States in the World Baseball Classic final. I guess we take their President, they take our trophy. Cuba probably won’t get to keep either for themselves. Despite some socialist white kids from the U.S. visiting, the country is imploding under it’s own weight. Yes, I know we’re blockading them, which we basically have for 70 years, to varying degrees. Anyway, back to sports, Opening Day for MLB is on Thursday. I’m obviously quite excited, but you’ll get my predictions later this week. I’ll be at a AAA game on Saturday to see Zack Wheeler rehab and the Phillies and Nats on Monday. I’m more excited for betting my pitcher strikeout parlays again. I win on those most days.
In case you were wondering, we’re still fighting the war we won a couple of weeks ago in Iran. The Straight of Hormuz still isn’t open and the national average of gasoline is $3.97 a gallon, because Joe Biden. Israel is still fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as kind of fighting Hamas in Gaza, and fighting Iran in Iran, which only makes sense when you realize the same people are funding Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran. Here at home the Homeland Security Department government shutdown continues, and TSA is a mess. I mean, Al Jazeera calls it a crisis. Workers haven’t been paid in weeks, and some just don’t even show up for work now. Can’t say I blame them. President Trump wants to really fix this crisis, so he’s sending in his “A Team,” putting ICE at airports across America. In other mildly political news, Robert Mueller, the former FBI Director who investigated Russian interference in our 2016 Election and determined it happened and that the President couldn’t be prosecuted for it, died. Yes, Donald Trump celebrated it. He did not celebrate Chuck Norris dying though, though I doubt he knows he was a conservative Republican. It’s a real party in the USA these days.
The Bachelorette was canceled for this season. Apparently Taylor Frankie Paul, the star for this upcoming season, beat the living shit out of her ex/baby daddy, and the video leaked. Look, shit no one is proud of happens sometimes, but hear me out. A few dozen (?) “men” were going to go on a show and share a girlfriend for a few weeks, begging for love from a woman who will kick their ass when she’s pissed. The cucked American male is simply wildly out of control. Like, don’t you have any respect for yourselves? Don’t answer that. Apparently some guy who was on the show named Brad Ledford was actually the driver of the car that crashed into former North Carolina Congresscritter Madison Cawthorn and put him in a wheelchair. Seriously, first you picked the violent mom from “The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives” as the prize of the show, then you put these clowns on the show? This show wouldn’t be crazier if it were cast in a halfway house.
Well, it isn’t quite what I would have picked, but…
We now know who will be on the field with the 2026 Philadelphia Phillies this Thursday. The team does look a lot like the 2025 team that won 96 games, and the NL East by a lot, but lost to the Dodgers in the NLDS. It’s also not the same team. The bullpen is way different than last year’s opening day, and postseason versions. The rotation is substantially different than last year’s opening day. The lineup is mostly the same, but there are significant newcomers. The bench looks very similar to not only last year’s, but years gone by.
The Phillies pick their last few spots based on common themes. They want relievers who strike guys out and don’t walk too many guys, even if they’re in low leverage spots. Their last spots on the bench emphasize defensive versatility. Do I really like this? No, but there is logic to it. A team with a great every day Designated Hitter isn’t going to carry bench bats based on just their bats, unless those guys are in a platoon somewhere. A team with Kyle Schwarber doesn’t have a ton of games at DH to hand out, so there’s no point picking a guy just to hit. Hence, you get this team.
So yes, I would have picked Bryan De La Cruz over both Dylan Moore and Garrett Stubbs, but he would have sat a lot and wouldn’t have done a ton of good in extra innings games. Zach Pop and Tim Mayza weren’t amazing in camp, but Zach McCambley didn’t throw enough strikes to make a bullpen for a contender, even if I think he had more upside. Pop and Mayza are Major League pitchers, and as camp went on they showed some of their past swing-and-miss stuff. That’s kind of it.
So here’s my thoughts on who is on the team…
Catchers (2)- J.T. Realmuto and Rafael Marchan
I don’t think you’ll see much change from the same two guys that were here last year, but I do think Marchan needs to show he can handle a more active role this season. The team had a 2.6 WAR (according to Fangraphs) last season at this position, and the starter is entering his age 35 season. Now Realmuto is showing no signs of his arm slipping up, and the challenge system on balls and strikes should actually help with his alleged decline in pitch framing, so his defense may not slip up much at all this season (it might even improve), but he’s 35 and his bat is giving you a .250/.300/.400/.700 with 12-15 homers if everything goes well at this point. If Marchan can hit somewhere around .230 and give you a .650 OPS with solid defense, he’s at least not a steep drop from Realmuto, and it’s more plausible to give him at least a few more starts (and get J.T. a little more rest). The Phillies really could use developing a catcher that they don’t trade one of these years, but Marchan would solidify his future considerably more if he showed he could be a viable starter for 50 games a year. For this year’s team’s chances of going somewhere though, the expectation and hope has to be that J.T. does not go over a 35 year old cliff. If he’s basically what he was last year, and Marchan marginally improves, this position is stable for this year.
Despite much of the dialogue around this team, this is still a really, really good infield, one of the best in the league. Is Bryce Harper elite? The answer is complex. Most players see the quality of their play decline fairly steeply when they start missing significant time. Harper missed 30 games last year and still popped out 27 homers and an .844 OPS. Assuming he remains that level of player, the question is simply how many games will he play this year, and in the six remaining years on his contract? A 140 plus game Harper at first probably hits 30 plus homers, and maybe more than that if his elbow and back (two recent injury spots) aren’t what bothers him. If he actually lays off of more pitches outside of the strike zone and walks more? Well, we’ll see. Trea Turner isn’t really answering questions about being elite this Spring. He won the NL Batting Title for the second time in his career last year and had one of his better defensive seasons. Yet, like Harper, Fangraphs and others aren’t being super kind with their projected WAR for this season (Harper comes only slightly up to 3.9, while Turner drops from 6.7 to 4.4 in their’s). That feels like a fairly arbitrary and steep decline from last year, but he will turn 33 this year, his fourth year in an 11 year deal. Even so, I expect a bit better year from Harper and Turner than a lot of the projections, and they really aren’t my worry here.
Despite my complaints about the bench, I really don’t have any. Edmundo Sosa is a very useful player, especially when his playing time is managed right. He can play almost anywhere on the field close to league average defensively and give you a low .700’s OPS at the plate as your primary utility man getting starts. I know I kind of dumped on Moore making the team, but he’s basically exactly what a 13th offensive player on the roster is supposed to be- he’ll go play any position the team tells him to, won’t make a fool of himself in the field, and he’ll hit an occasional home run. Edmundo will probably give you about 1 WAR, which is fine, and Moore will be right around zero. If either does more than that, it’s a real treat for the Phillies. Also, we should hope that neither really matters overly much.
How this season is judged, and maybe how fast the team fast forwards to it’s future, really rides on Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott. Part of why the Phillies haven’t won a championship yet with this group is that while these guys are actually good players, they have not become good enough. Alec Bohm is in a walk year, he’ll turn 30 this Summer, and he’s a career .279 hitter with below average to average power. If he had more power, he’d have been extended with his ball-to-bat skills, but he hit 11 home runs last season. He’s likely to be their four hole hitter to start the season. Is he nearly as bad as the people who beat on him on the internet say? Absolutely not. He’s a 2 WAR to 3 WAR player at this point in his career, depending on health, and that’s okay. He’s not really as far worse than Max Muncy at this point as you might imagine, but Muncy’s eight years in LA produced a lot more 30 homer seasons than 10 home run seasons, and that’s why you think he is. As for Stott, the situation is similar, but not the same. Stott has an elite, not adequate glove at a very demanding defensive position, and so the Phillies have been more willing to put up with his growing pains. He’s 28 though now, and coming off of a very productive second half. Even so, the Phillies have not been able to rely on Stott’s bat any more than Bohm’s when they’ve needed to, and he didn’t pass the test when put in the leadoff spot last season. Again, Stott’s glove gets him a lot of room, and his spot in the order being at the bottom means he could end up getting extended if he even takes a mild leap forward offensively this season. As is, he’s been a roughly 3 WAR player that teases you that he has more. If these guys were to realize the potential that was seen in them when they were first round picks, this team *could* win the World Series based on that. That’s not as likely after five years in the league though and as you approach 30. You kind of are what you are, and in their cases, that’s a guy one and two seasons from free agency, looking for a pay day. The other obvious factor here is Aidan Miller, a 21 year old potential future 30/30 player who will probably begin playing in AAA with the IronPigs. He produced an .825 OPS and over 50 steals across AA and AAA last year, and if he is playing like that this Summer, he probably won’t be doing it in the minor leagues anymore. So frankly, the two starting infielders *not* named Harper and Turner probably will be a huge piece in determining this team’s fate.
Outfielders (4)- Adolis Garcia, Justin Crawford, Brandon Marsh, and Otto Kemp
A lot of fans are really down on this group and in my mind, I just can’t quite understand why. Are they elite? Definitely not on paper. You started Nick Castellanos, Johan Rojas, and Max Kepler an awful lot early last season, and Castellanos and Kepler were clogging up this outfield all the way to the end. Castellanos has had points in his career where he was a very good, even All-Star player, but that guy has been gone for at least the last two years in Philadelphia. He was one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball last season, if not the worst, and it’s mostly because he simply had little to no range anymore. He put up a -.6 WAR last season, meaning he was a liability in almost every way you can imagine a player being so, and that’s not getting into the issues in the locker room, allegedly. Max Kepler was brutally bad, and probably should have been dumped in favor of Crawford last year, but the Phillies decided to prioritize Crawford’s playing time and development and instead brought Bader in via trade and made Kepler share time with Castellanos. Kepler gave you a .6 WAR, and that was with a better finish offensively than his overall numbers, and above average defense. Even so, he’s below an average major league starting player. Both of these players are gone, and thanks to the MLB drug testing program, we won’t spend another half season starting out by trying to see if we can make Rojas into a useful offensive player. The new group may not look all that great to you, and maybe they’re not, but it would be very hard, if not impossible for them to be worse. The three guys who aren’t here put up .4 WAR between them and two of them have now tested positive for PED’s.
The only two fears you can have are that Marsh doesn’t match a very good 2025 overall and that Crawford falls short of the season he had in AAA and isn’t an upgrade on Bader. Both of those things could credibly happen. Even so, Fangraphs pegs Marsh for a steep drop from 2.4 WAR to 1.6, from a .280 batting average to .256, and only a mild upswing in power from 11 to 14. They project Crawford, who hit .334, with an .863 OPS, and 34 XBH’s to produce just a .276 average, .714 OPS, and 33 XBH’s, coming out to a 1.9 WAR. I’d be surprised if both of them don’t exceed those projections easily, even while falling short of their 2025 numbers overall. That leads us to Adolis Garcia, a signing that a lot of fans have whined and complained about all Winter. Yes, Garcia is another one year, $10 million signing, like Kepler. And yes, he might just be that kind of player. His .274 OBP last year is simply unacceptable, especially if he’s *only* hitting 19 homers again. Garcia is a really good defensive player and posted .7 WAR last year largely on that alone. He’s also kind of playing for his career. So for him to be better than he was, we’re talking about beating a .227/.271/.394/.665 slash line, hit at least 20 homers, and continue playing elite defense. If he does that, he’s already better than Kepler was, regardless of what the actual result is. The bar is pretty low here. Fangraphs is projecting him to hit 28 homers and post a .241/.298/.442/.740 season, coming out to 1.5 WAR, and while I would hold my horses a bit on this, it’s plausible. Like I said, I’d take a 1 WAR season here, and I kind of expect we’ll get it. This leaves us with Otto Kemp, who debuted last year and was probably over exposed a little bit. He was a -.2 WAR that posted 8 homers and a .709 OPS. If he gets the bulk of his at-bats this season, no, damn near all of his at-bats against left-handed pitching, I think he can be better than that, and his AAA time suggests that. Fangraphs pegs him for a .3 WAR season, which again, I think he can beat if he’s just used to wear out lefties. I’ll concede the worst case scenario though in my mind- Marsh and Crawford combining to just be 3.5 WAR together, a 1 WAR season from Garcia, and a zero for Kemp. Last year’s outfield, even with Bader having 1/3 of a career year here, only posted about a 3.8 WAR, and I would have this year’s at 4.5 in the doomsday scenario. Obviously there’s room for all four of them to be better than that. They’d almost have to try to be as bad as last year’s crew. And obviously, there’s still the trade deadline.
Designated Hitter (1)- Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber has been consistently between really good and great in each of his four years as a Phillie. He hasn’t hit less than 38 homers here. He has hit less than 30 homers one time (excluding 2020) in his eight real seasons in the league (he missed basically all of 2016 before the playoffs and came up later in 2015). His walk rate is consistently around 13% or higher, his strikeout rate has stayed steady and even dropped a little in the past two years. His OPS has stayed over .800 in every year other than 2020 since 2018, his second full season. Even his batting average has improved the last two years. What I’m saying to you is that Schwarber is a consistently elite power hitter and you shouldn’t worry much about him this season.
With that said, last season was clearly the best season of his career, and it wouldn’t be normal to start having your uptick at 32, even with the DH coming into his career a little later. Fangraphs has him dropping from 4.9 WAR to 3 WAR, and while that’s a little steep, it’s believable. I tend to think it will be more like 3.5-4, which is still incredible for a one way player. Even so, I’m saying you shouldn’t expect him to top 2025 this year.
The Rotation (5)- Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker, and Andrew Painter
Elite. Elite. You heard me right. The Phillies won the NL East in a runaway last year basically because of three offensive players, two very nice deadline trades, and the best rotation in the sport. In no other way were they spectacular. For close to four months, Zack Wheeler was the third best pitcher in the sport, then obviously he had a life threatening condition. Cristopher Sanchez was legitimately a top five pitcher in the sport for the season. Jesus Luzardo finished 7th in the Cy Young Vote, had the 3rd highest WAR of any NL starter, and set career highs in innings and strikeouts. Ranger Suarez gave them 26 starts and 157.1 innings of 3.20 baseball. Aaron Nola had the worst year of his career, and it didn’t really even hurt them. Taijuan Walker even produced a 123.1 inning, 4.08 season in 21 starts. Even with Andrew Painter not helping last year, the Phillies starting was simply elite.
To hear some tell it, the Phillies may fall off substantially this year. Wheeler is lucky he survived with his health and you shouldn’t expect him to be back. Suarez is gone. Sanchez and Luzardo had the best seasons of their lives and shouldn’t be expected to repeat them. Nola looked shot. Walker overachieved. Painter had a concerning season in AAA. It is fascinating that like the lineup, a lot of worst case scenarios are being expected. Wheeler is ahead of schedule in his recovery and will make his first real start next Saturday in AAA Lehigh Valley. Sanchez and Luzardo both look healthy and ready to go. Nola and Walker had outstanding Springs. Painter showed good signs of better command this Spring and just had his best start in his last one. All of a sudden you start hearing a few voices predicting a repeat of last Summer.
Pitching is fickle though and the truth is probably somewhere in between, even if it is probable that they are again a top three to five rotation. It will be hard for Sanchez or Luzardo to match 2025. Fangraphs has Sanchez going from a 6.4 WAR season to a 4.8 year, despite another 200 innings, mostly because they think his strikeout rate will fall a little bit and his walk rate will increase a bit. I’m not sure why they think a 29 year old coming off of a breakout season will regress as much as they do, but it’s reasonable to say he may not match a Cy Young runner-up performance. They are not projecting a very different season for Luzardo, putting him back around 180 innings and a slightly lower ERA actually, but projecting a slight drop in his strikeout rate and a drop in WAR from 5.3 to 3.5. Again, that feels steep to me. My guess with both is a very small decline is possible (but not inevitable), but not as far as they are guessing.
How good this group is probably rides heavily on Wheeler and Nola and what they are at this point. In the case of Wheeler, this is kind of hard to project. I mean, the guy could have died from a blood clot. But he didn’t. And by all accounts his rehab is ahead of schedule and he could be pitching in April. That would mean maybe as many as 30 starts and 5.5 months of Wheeler. Last year he missed the last two months of the season and only made 24 starts. Is he going to come back though and be a top three to five pitcher on the planet this season? They are projecting him to drop from a 4 WAR to 3.5 WAR season. That doesn’t seem insane to me, unless he’s 90% or more of who he was healthy last year. He really may be though, and the track record on guys coming back from this is mixed, but improving in recent years. If he is basically himself by May, I think he’ll probably end up giving the Phillies considerably more value than 2025. We’re just going to have to see how he performs live though. As for Nola, I think at least some bounce back is likely. From 2018 through 2024, with the exception of the shortened 2020 season, Nola surpassed 180 innings every season and had an ERA below four in all but two seasons. Last season he made just 17 starts, threw just 94.1 innings, and had a 6.01 ERA. He’s either totally shot and this contract is a literal albatross on the team, or last year really was caused at least in part by an ankle/leg injury and better health alone will make him better. His Spring and World Baseball Classic suggest we’re going to get a much more normal Nola. Even if Nola is a bit more hittable now than a few years back, there’s no reason he can’t be a low four’s ERA, 30 start, 175 inning fourth starter. If Wheeler is a healthy two and Nola is a dependable four, and Sanchez and Luzardo are close to last year, this is a really good rotation. Not as good as last year, but really good. If Wheeler is Wheeler and Nola gives you a more career normal Nola, this is an elite rotation that will be as good as anyone in baseball. Yes, really.
Which leads me to the subject of Taijuan Walker and Andrew Painter, both of whom are going to be talked about a lot more this week than they really need to be. If the four guys I talked about above basically hit their benchmarks, these two are only being asked to be a league average fifth starter or swing man in an elite rotation. If those four are as good as they can be, all these two are really being asked to do is be a footnote. Now, we know the situation with both of them. Walker was maybe the worst pitcher on the planet in 2024 and his four year deal looked like a complete disaster, and then last year he came back and gave them a very professional, well above league average fifth starter kind of season. I don’t think we should expect better than that, but much like with Adolis Garcia, this guy is literally pitching for his future this year. A solid season from Walker will get him at least another season of Major League money. A dud might end his time in the league. With Painter, obviously the ceiling and hopes are quite a bit higher. He was the top young right handed starter in some prospect rankings at the time of his 2023 elbow injury. He sat for two years, then he had struggles last season in his first season back, facing AAA hitters for the first time. His velocity mostly returned, but his command didn’t, and some folks have thought out loud about both his arm angle and the “shape” of his fastball. The truth of the matter is that Painter is still a work in progress, and fans dreaming of him coming in and being an ace next week are living in a fantasy. The point of last season for him was pitching near a complete season and staying healthy, and he did that. The Phillies are now working on fixing his flaws. By all accounts, they have his arm slot back where it was pre-Tommy John, which is an incredibly good sign, and probably at least in part explained his good Spring. Now they need to get back some combination of his triple digit velocity, ride on his fastball, and the natural cut he had on it. Yes, his last start was his best so far, but it’s probably unfair to think they got everything fixed in four starts. A lot of people aren’t going to like this, but the odds are strong that Painter will be the guy sent to AAA in a couple of weeks when Wheeler comes off the IL, regardless of whether or not he out pitches Walker. There is still work to be done on him, and it’s much better to do that work in AAA than the majors. With that said, let’s compare the situation the Phillies are in with say, everyone else. While other teams are asking their top pitching prospects to step in and be say, a number two (Nolan McLean in New York), the Phillies really only need Painter to be a reliable five this season, as they work on him. The pressure, if our damned talk radio crowd would quiet down, should be very low. If they can bring back the movement and “life” on Painter’s fastball, yes, he can absolutely slot very high in this rotation. That could happen at any point, and it has for plenty of pitchers who had Tommy John. It also may not, and well, he may have to learn to pitch crafty enough to just survive as a back end starter. I’m not saying that will happen, just that it could. The point is I’d be thrilled if we get 20 starts that grade out to league average, and the starts late in the Summer start looking like a top ten prospect in the game type again. Hell, I’d be fine if he pitches 25 plus starts and is simply better than the league average fifth starter. This kid is 23 and here on a league minimum deal. With Sanchez and Luzardo locked up for a while, Painter doesn’t need to be a number one or two starter this Summer for this team to win, and can get his stuff back to where it was over the course of this season and just show us it’s still there.
The Bullpen (8)- Jhoan Duran, Brad Keller, Jose Alvarado, Tanner Banks, Jonathan Bowlan, Zach Pop, Kyle Backhus, and Tim Mayza
Be careful here- this group actually looks elite. Jordan Romano and Joe Ross are gone. David Robertson and Matt Strahm have been replaced by Keller and Alvarado. You get a full season of Duran. While the ending of the season was unfortunate and he will start the season on the IL with a hamstring issue, Orion Kerkering showed signs of his stuff starting to play up in the postseason last year. The Phillies probably have five or six arms that grade out somewhere between elite and durable and steady. Then there are three basic wild cards out there behind them. Pop and Mayza have had past success in the majors, and have also bombed in the past. Both showed signs they might be able to reclaim some of their higher strikeout rates at times this Spring, and really you’re just hoping that one of them, or both, does it. Backhus is a long, weird left-hander, and he has shown some ability to be really tough on lefties. If he does that, he’s fine as the third lefty in the pen. Any one of these three could blow up and be a problem, and the odds are that one will. Even more so, the odds are strong that one of those six “steady” guys I talked about will either face an injury or struggle at some point this season. This bullpen looks elite. As long as Duran, Keller, and Alvarado are healthy and performing at their expected levels, it is elite. That’s even more true if Kerkering, Banks, or Bowlan show something. But history tells us that won’t probably all happen at once. History also tells us that the nine guys I’m mentioning won’t be anywhere near all the guys who end up playing a role here. Max Lazar pitched a lot for last year’s team. Lou Trivino was actually fairly impressive to me last year at times in both AAA and the majors for us. Seth Johnson’s fastball really had me intrigued this Spring, as he seems to have gained a little something on it. There are others, such as Griff McGarry, Chase Shugart, Yoniel Curet, Bryse Wilson, and Nolan Hoffman who could surprise you at some point.
Still, I do expect this group to be much stronger than others. Fangraphs likes Duran (2.1 WAR projected), likes Jose Alvarado (1.2 WAR), and for some reason hates Keller (.2 WAR). They are higher on Banks (.5 WAR) and Kerkering (.4 WAR) and less excited about Bowlan (.1 WAR). They put Mayza in the same spot as Bowlan, and expect a net zero from Pop and Backhus. I’m not going to quibble with them on Mayza, Pop, and Backhus, all of whom will be pitching in low leverage spots at least at the start. Duran and Alvarado being that good would loom large, and if they’re healthy they should be. I’m hoping for a bit of a breakout from Kerkering, but it’s hard to argue with the numbers for him and Banks they give either, based on usage. I’m really only in real disagreement on Keller and Bowlan. Keller obviously had a really good year with the Cubs last year, but they are projecting quite a drop-off this season. Bowlan could be a bit hard to project, as he was a late bloomer, making his debut at age 28, and also potentially swinging between mid-to-low level leverage spots and long relief duty. Even so, he did a good job avoiding hard contact last season, which is in and of itself a bit of a skill. I definitely both of them will be a bit better than the projections here.
I tend to think that bullpens with fairly defined roles do pretty well. This doesn’t mean only one guy closes, but it means someone is the primary guy there and then there are other very good relievers who tend to get the eighth inning, and you slide back from there based on situations and the score. If Keller excels like I think from having a set 7th or 8th inning role, and Alvarado pitches to his potential as the main lefty counterpart to him, this team isn’t going to blow many leads. That’s really asking for three guys to have very good to elite seasons though. It happened for the team in 2008, but it’s a lot more rare than normal. Still, look for this to be one of the top units in baseball.
Who else might help?
Ok, I could say Aidan Miller here, and I believe that, but that’s too easy. At some point this summer the top prospect the club has had in years will be hot and the fans will want him called up, and he probably will be. There’s a really strong shot that Miller, Crawford, and Painter all contribute positively this season to a team that contends for a title, and that’s a huge credit to the player development folks, as for that matter would a positive contribution from Otto Kemp or Marchan. They developed these guys, and to the clubs credit they weren’t willing to part with them. There’s a good chance three rookie top prospects end up rewarding them to varying levels this year.
Now that that’s done, I named you a bunch of bullpen arms. If you put a gun to my head and said narrow that list, I’d say Seth Johnson and Lou Trivino are my candidates to really surprise, and Bryse Wilson is a guy I could see giving them durable (not great) innings later. You want a real dark horse? It’s McGarry. I think the Nationals messed up not just holding onto him and working on him. He showed some signs of late blooming in 2025, and they’re going nowhere anyway. Look, maybe this guy never figures out how to throw enough strikes, and maybe he does. Time will tell. The other guy with enough talent to break out is Curet, but he looked like a serious work in progress this Spring.
Bryan De La Cruz was the last guy off the team and maybe that means he gets a chance. History tells us that can cut either way. Gabriel Rincones had a tough Spring with injuries, but I wouldn’t be stunned if he hit his way back into the picture later this Summer in Allentown, the power is there. If I had to give you two kind of odd ball names to play a role at some point, I’d say Bryan Rincon (probably Reading’s opening day shortstop) and Felix Reyes. Both guys turned some heads in camp. Rincon does have Miller in his way and Reyes kind of lacks a position if he can’t play corner outfield, but both showed some game. Reyes hits the ball hard, and that does tend to play on any team.
Expectations?
As I said at the top, this team went 96-66 and ran away with the division last year. I really don’t buy that they got considerably worse. The division could be better though. Miami played as well as anyone after June 1st last year. I don’t buy that the Mets got much better this off-season, but they didn’t get worse either, they’re adding a few premium prospects as the season goes, and they badly underachieved last year anyway. Atlanta’s camp was dreadful, sure. They will get a full season of Ronald Acuna Jr., and he could be the best player in any given season. Only Washington stinks really. It’s a tough division.
The question is basically did anyone make up at least 13 games? Sure, if you take the view that every Phillies star and top end pitcher has a worse 2026 than 2025, and literally everyone is better in New York or Atlanta, which is basically the view of some folks. I don’t buy that. Fangraphs projects at least .5 WAR improvement at five of nine spots in the Mets lineup this season. They project six starters to have over 1 WAR, which would actually be pretty impressive. They consider their bullpen to really be their weakest link, which again, is probably true. They give the very injured Braves rotation a very similar six guys over 1 WAR projected, which would again impress me, behind a top two who actually should be better if they can stay on the mound healthy. They are projecting healthy bounce back seasons for all of Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, and Ozzie Albies. I’d be pretty impressed by that. Even so, do I think both of those teams are better? Yes. I just don’t think they’re so much better, the Phillies so much worse, or a combination of the two that we shouldn’t win this division.
Ultimately, I think the Phillies pitching, both starting and relieving, wear out the competition. I think they get a very good Bryce Harper bounce back season, Turner and Schwarber don’t really regress enough to matter, Crawford has a very solid, dynamic rookie year, Garcia bounces back a bit, Marsh is solid, and either Bohm or Stott step up. I think Wheeler returns to ace status, Nola bounces back very solidly, Sanchez and Luzardo are approximate to last season, and the rotation is fine. The bullpen is one of the best in the league. There will be injuries obviously, and I’m not thinking there will be many career years in the lineup, but no one can pitch down to four or five with the Phillies in this division. I don’t think they win 96 again right now, but that’s from improvement in the division. The only team I think for sure wins more games in the National League is the Dodgers (more on them the next few days) and possibly the Cubs. The Phillies should still be a 90 plus win team.
It’s 70+ degrees outside. Even a month ago, this was unthinkable. Then again, everything on our television right now was unthinkable a couple years ago, so keep perspective, folks.
So anyway, the news… yikes. In the biggest news in the world, Big Foot is apparently in Portage County, Ohio. While I’d like to call this crackpot shit, apparently their are footprints of a very large individual in the areas he was “seen.” In very similar news, Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas had their primary elections last Tuesday. In the premier races of the night, James Talarico won the Texas Senate Democratic Primary and John Cornyn and Ken Paxton are heading for a runoff on the Republic side. You may recall that Paxton was literally indicted for securities fraud and investigated for abuse of office, but hey, that seems like Senate material for me. Meanwhile, human shitstain Congressman Tony Gonzales has withdrawn from his re-election after finishing first with 43%, but failing to avoid the runoff. You might re-call that Gonzales had an affair with aide Regina Santos-Aviles and she ended up committing suicide by lighting herself on fire. It’s amazing that 43% of the people voted for him. Of course, Gonzales was the “moderate” in this race, as his opponent, Brandon Herrera, wants you to know that he is the proud owner of a 1939 edition of Mein Kampf. Meanwhile in North Carolina longtime dictator President of the North Carolina Senate, Phil Berger, is trailing his primary by 23 votes for re-election.
The World Baseball Classic is underway, and there are no shocks so far. The United States, Japan, the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico are all good at baseball. Kyle Schwarber and Aaron Judge can hit a baseball very far. Paul Skenes is good at pitching. The biggest surprise of the tournament is Cal Raleigh stiffing Randy Arozarena when he tried to shake his hand (they’re teammates on Seattle) and Arozarena ripping him after the game. I’m with Arozarena here. In other sports news, it’s conference tournament time in NCAA Basketball. For my money, I’m taking Michigan (Big Ten), Duke (ACC), UCONN (Big East), Florida (SEC) and Texas Tech (Big 12) to win the major men’s conferences. Some of the women’s tournaments are already done, but if you’re filling out your bracket, you can pick UCONN and South Carolina to win almost any game they play. Closer to home here in Pennsylvania, Penn State won yet another Big Ten Wrestling title this past weekend and their media starter has like 1.5 losses on the season, so they should win another national title. In closing, sad news, the “Exciting Whites” broke up in Philadelphia, as Reed Blankenship has moved on. This is life as an NFL fan. Your team wins, your players start getting paid the real money to go elsewhere.
Is there other news? Oh yes, war with Iran. American and Israeli bombers killed the Ayatollah and many other leading religious radicals in the country. What has commenced is essentially a regional war of damn near everyone in the region against Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and some rebels in Yemen. Of course, this is making weird bedfellows, as Pakistan has pledged to defend Saudi Arabia, who is on the same side as the United States and Israel, even though Pakistan is fighting Afghanistan right now, and just a few years ago Americans entered Pakistan to kill Osama Bin Laden. Even more telling- Trump doesn’t seem to have any plan for who will now take over in Iran, assuming we can even topple the IRGC that are still in place. Remember all that talk in 2024 that a vote for Kamala would lead to war? Oh yes, the good ole’ days.
Have you dug out of the snow yet? I guess that depends where you are. In a rare snow event, you’re better off in Mt. Pocono after this weekend than you are in Cape May. New Jersey got a blizzard. Here in the Lehigh Valley, the storm underperformed. Go figure.
The Olympics are now over. Pop quiz, let’s see people find Milan and Cortina on a map now. Last week I listed the Gold Medalists through that point, so today let me finish the U.S. Medalists list. Mikaela Shiffrin won Gold in the women’s slalom event. Elana Meyers Taylor won Gold in the women’s monobob bobsled event. In the two-woman bobsled, Lailie Armbruster Humphries and Jasmine Jones won the Bronze. Armbruster Humphries added a Bronze in the women’s monobob event. Ben Ogden and Gus Schumacher won the Silver in the men’s cross-country skiing team sprint. Alyssa Liu won the Gold in the women’s figure skating event. The freestyle skiing mixed aerials team of Connor Curran, Kaila Kuhn, and Christopher Lillis won the Gold. Alex Ferreira won the gold in the men’s halfpipe event. Mac Forehand won the Silver in the men’s freestyle big air event. Corrine Stoddard won a Bronze in the 1500m short track skating race. Jake Canter won a Bronze in the men’s snowboard slopestyle event. Jordan Stolz won a Silver in the 1500m men’s speed skating race. The team of Ethan Cepuran, Casey Dawson, Emery Lehman, Conor McDermott-Mostowy, and Jordan Stolz won Silver in the men’s team pursuit speed skating race. Mia Manganello won a Bronze in the women’s mass start race in speed skating. Oh, and of course the women and men’s hockey teams won Gold, too. Free Bird, bitches. The complete list is here.
So tonight is the President’s State of the Union address. I will not be watching, antique road show/random NBA game/The Weather Channel is on then. We will probably bomb Iran within days, as our government is saying they could have the capability of building a nuclear bomb within a week. The Jalisco New Generation Cartel is causing chaos and panic in the Mexican state of Jalisco after their leader “El Mencho” was killed apparently by the Mexican government, but American officials tried to take some sort of credit as well and so they’re threatening Americans there. France is telling Jared Kushner’s daddy to stay in his playpen, taking away the Ambassador to France’s ability to talk directly to government ministers on the behalf of the United States after he stiffed them on a meeting. Shocking that Charles Kushner isn’t a good Ambassador, since he got the job for being rich and related to the President. Texas Congressman Tony Gonzales is making a strong play for biggest piece of shit in the world this week, as we get more and more details of his affair with a staffer that worked for him that lead her to light herself literally on fire to commit suicide. One thing’s for sure, Washington, D.C. is always there to make us proud of our nation. Oh, and the DNC thinks Kamala Harris lost for not siding with Hamas. This message seems like a sure way to lose elections for the rest of our lives. In better news, Baseball is back. Not like real, good baseball, but there are players being paid to play in Florida and Arizona right now for real teams. The World Baseball Classic is coming up too. I can’t wait until the 2028 Summer Olympics, when we get a baseball tournament, in-season, with the best of the United States, Japan, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Canada, Venezuela, South Korea, Australia, Puerto Rico, and Mexico, to name a few. Duke beat Michigan, Arizona beat Houston, and UCONN dog walked Villanova in college basketball. The NHL is getting ready to come back from it’s break. Tyler Reddick won the second NASCAR race of the year, to go along with his Daytona win, and Michael Jordan again gave the first interview after his driver won. Back to uplifting news, Savannah Guthrie’s mom is still missing, but FBI Director Kash Patel got to make his wish and celebrate with the U.S. Hockey team at the Olympics. Oh, and the President’s tariffs were thrown out by the Supreme Court, so he just made up a new legal argument for them and raised them. The government also has no real plan to return the money.
The world is awesome. The World is fine. Have a great week.
It was kind of a tough week for a lot of Phillies fans, even if some of us are less mad than others. First, Ranger Suarez left for Boston. That was sort of a known for a while (at least that he’s probably leaving), but is still easily the biggest blow to the Phillies roster this offseason. Ranger broke out as a closer in 2021, and then as the #3 starter on the 2022 NL Champions. He famously got the last out of the 2022 NLCS (See above) and threw a shut out in game three of the World Series that year. He made the All-Star game in 2024. More than anything, he was dependable. You were going to get almost exactly 25 or 26 starts a season, his ERA would be in the threes, and he’d be money in the playoffs (other than 2023’s game seven). The Phillies should be able to recover from this loss between the returning Zack Wheeler and the arriving Andrew Painter, but shoulds aren’t assured. This one definitely hurts them and removes a fan favorite.
Now that we have gone through that, let’s get to what transpired this week and really has people up in arms. The Dodgers paid a literally absurd $60 million a year to Kyle Tucker, a very good player, but not nearly on the level of Judge, Ohtani, or Soto, even at his best. Hell, it’s a literal absurdity that this guy is going to make double Bryce Harper this season (actually more), but the Dodgers can do that, and they do. They have a gigantic market, the second largest city in America and the largest county by a lot, and their TV deal is a monstrosity. It also really doesn’t hurt that back in the 2011-2012 era when the McCourt family owned the team and was in bankruptcy, MLB created a sweetheart agreement with them that shielded most of their TV revenue from the revenue sharing agreement that governs other big markets, like their neighboring Angels, the New York teams, Philly, Chicago, Boston, and the San Francisco Giants. The deal made total sense at the time and was the right thing to do (MLB was never going to let the Dodgers go under). To the credit of the Dodgers ownership, they put the extra money they make directly back into signing players, which is what fans should want. With all of that said, that agreement is no long necessary to the survival of the Dodgers. It is long past time for MLB to wrap the sweetheart agreement up, or let the other big markets play under the same sweetheart deal for the duration of the Dodgers deal. The Dodgers aren’t cheating or even doing anything they shouldn’t, but it’s not a fair or equal system for even the other big spenders.
I mostly mention the Dodgers here because their Tucker deal set off dominoes that did in fact impact the Phillies. Man-child Mets owner Steve Cohen was so shocked that the best player on the market didn’t want his money (like Alonso and Diaz, which is telling), that he not only pivoted to his next target, he made him an offer that was 150% of his existing best offer, annually, up to that point. It looked like Bo Bichette was coming to Philadelphia as late as Friday morning, and had a seven year, $200 million ($28 million a year) offer in hand, but Cohen turned around and gave a player that really doesn’t even fit on his roster three years and $126 million ($42 million a year). While it’s true they had talked to Bichette before that, the offer came in after being rejected by Tucker, and appears to have been negotiating against himself- no one else even considered offering Bichette $42 million a year. Now, I’m not going to tell you Bichette isn’t good, or that I didn’t want him in Philly, that’s childish, however I’m going to tell you that I would have rioted if the Phillies paid him anything near that. Bichette was smart to accept the wild overpay from the Mets, even if it means he probably won’t win a championship for a bit. If he plays out the whole contract, he would be 30 years old and only need a $74 million deal to match the total of what the Phillies offered him. He’s now going to crush $200 million in free agency earnings and be set up for life. Good for him, I don’t blame him at all.
None of this was good for baseball. The Dodgers showed us in 2025 that they could literally limit each of their pitchers innings and sleep walk to 90 plus wins and a spot in the postseason, and signing Tucker and Diaz this offseason only reinforces that. By doing what they did, the Dodgers and Mets are only increasing the likelihood of a lockout after the 2026 season, giving the small market owners more leverage to call for salary caps or increased revenue sharing, things I absolutely hate because they reward shitty owners (looking at you Pirates and Athletics). Salary caps don’t work. The NHL’s salary cap wrecked the sport. Even basic trades are nearly impossible in the NBA because of the salary cap. People celebrate the NFL salary cap for “creating parity,” but tell that to continuously shitty franchises in Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dallas, and Las Vegas that turnout huge profits each year. The NFL salary cap has just watered down what a great team is. Now we’re probably going to have a lockout because owners won’t even be able to agree to what they want, and even if they do, the players will never go for that. Sure, Dodgers fans can say “cry harder” about it, but what’s the point of having a dynasty if the sport ends up skipping a year or two because of it?
If I ran MLB, I would make a few simple fixes that would even out a lot of these problems without a hard cap or lockout.
Make deferments of pay count 100% against the luxury tax now. This one is pretty simple and would eliminate deals like Shohei Ohtani’s giving teams that are rich and good a windfall of cash to spend on other players.
Set a salary floor. Yes, I really don’t want to see the Athletics owner put a slop product out on the field and pocket tons of cash because fans like me will travel to Vegas to watch our team on the road. All of these teams bring in enough revenue to pay competitive players. Right now there are a half dozen to dozen cities in the league that aren’t even making a bad faith attempt to win games. That is bad for the league on every level. Every owner is rich. If the burden of trying is too much for you, sell.
Subject all media revenue to revenue sharing for every team. Yes, I’m looking at you, Los Angeles. No more sweetheart deals, ever. Again, since we’re going to make small market owners spend to at least a bare minimum now, I think you sweeten the revenue sharing agreement for them as well.
Incentivize teams to re-sign their own star players. I think every dollar spent on someone else’s free agents should count against the luxury tax number. Every dollar on your own guys? Perhaps if Pittsburgh were extending Paul Skenes, that could count at a reduced rate against the tax. 90%? 85%? You can figure out the number. Make it more appealing for small market teams to keep good teams together though when they build them. Hell, this is even good for big market teams. If Kyle Schwarber only was a 90% hit against the tax, the Phillies would have had more money to spend this offseason. I’d even go so far as to incentivize a team more to continuously re-sign homegrown players they keep throughout their careers.
Institute an international draft. I think we’re almost universally tired of seeing players from Asia pick the same two or three teams. The situation in Latin America has improved dramatically with caps on what teams can spend there, but it’s still all relative to how your franchise wishes to use it. I’ve never really seen a good reason why international players aren’t subject to a draft system, even if it were like the Rule 5 draft or waiver wire, that would allow every market a chance to tap into some of the global talent. Basically international players can still choose to sign with teams who are already good, and make the rich richer. Spread that talent out.
Tier penalties for signing players who receive a qualifying offer. There are teams who simply can’t afford to sign a player who received a qualifying offer, because they can’t afford to lose draft picks on the first two days. What if teams in the bottom third of the standings the season before could sign players without losing their picks? This would be quite an incentive to go out and try to compete, especially since we’d now have a salary floor.
Stiffen luxury tax penalties for repeat offenders in higher tiers. Take first round picks in both the domestic and international drafts and make new signings count 110% on the luxury tax for other teams’ free agents. Give them no compensation for losing a player with a qualifying offer. You can make it hurt enough that they’ll think about it. 29 teams have a budget as is, the tax on it’s own has an impact.
These are just a few ideas to try and bring competitive balance to the league. Look, we all know some NBA teams just make paper transactions to meet the salary minimum, and some of these owners will try to do that. We also know there are teams like Washington with huge markets and rich owners who aren’t even faking that they want to win right now, who would just do the bare minimum until they think they can win. At least under this system you would be preventing them from pocketing as much cash.
Now, so back to my Phillies. They did re-sign J.T. Realmuto this week for three years and $45 million. Technically when that becomes official they will have 41 players on the 40 man roster (and Justin Crawford will still need a spot), so someone will have to come off soon. This puts the current projected payroll at $316,780,437 for 2026. My guess is they will try to shop Garrett Stubbs or Rafael Marchan, as both catchers are out of options and one will have to clear waivers when they don’t make the team. Nick Castellanos is obviously a candidate to go now too, and with a lack of right handed hitting outfield and DH options left, he should have some market if the Phillies are willing to eat at least $15 million to move him. With that said, if we are not considering the clubhouse issues, Castellanos wouldn’t be the worst right-handed platoon partner with Brandon Marsh in left (Trust me, they aren’t considering it). Taijuan Walker and his $18,000,000 salary is a candidate to go, and the Phillies could probably move at least $8-10,000,000 of his money off the books now if they wanted. Given the loss of Ranger though, the rotation is a bit light and probably could use him around for depth. Of course, Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh are all potential trade pieces yet, particularly if the Phillies make any more free agency moves. The Phillies could use another depth pitcher, a right handed bat to hit behind Harper, and if we’re going with Marsh in left, perhaps an upgrade right-handed platoon partner.
The market is not dead yet either. Eugenio Suarez seems like the most straight forward offensive upgrade available. He’s right handed, he plays third base, and he hit 49 homers a year ago. He does strike out a lot, his defense isn’t good, and he’s old. If he can be had on a two year deal, I would be less than shocked if the Phillies paid him $25 million a year. Look, they were offering Bichette $28 million and Realmuto $12 million a year as of Friday morning, so Suarez for $25 million and Realmuto for $15 million fits exactly into the financial footprint. It also makes trading Bohm and his $10.2 million one year salary a pretty straight forward salary dump without a particular need in what you get back. Suarez is flawed in plenty of ways, and you can question if you want to sign him and put Aidan Miller at second if and when he arrives, but he’s a pretty straight forward move. He’d also be the best cleanup option the Phillies have had since Ryan Howard’s prime.
Of course there is also Cody Bellinger. The fit here is a little less obvious, as while Bellinger was probably only second to really Tucker on this market, he’s left handed and the Phillies have plenty of that. Of course, if they signed Bellinger, he’d probably replace left-handed hitting Brandon Marsh, so he doesn’t really make things worse. Bellinger can play any outfield spot, hits for power, and would probably mash in the Phillies ballpark. The Phillies could probably offer him the exact same seven year, $200 million deal they offered Bichette and get him too, as he is reportedly sticking to seven years in his talks with the Yankees. Do I love that deal with him? Look, I think he has a really good four years in front of him, I’d be fine with him at five, but those last two years will probably be ugly. Even so, the Phillies window is realistically three years with this group, so what if you eat a few bad years after that. Sure, he and Harper are both lefties, but both can hit lefties, so I don’t mind them hitting back to back. Now, it’s true that if you pay him $28-30 million, he and Realmuto are more expensive than they seemed to be willing to go before, but it would also open up Marsh for a trade that would even things back out. I get why some people don’t love this idea, but Bellinger is a great player and could be a decent fit for the Phillies if they want.
I also wouldn’t count out that they decide to just bring back Harrison Bader and role the dice with four starting outfielders on the opening day roster, playing whoever the hot hand is at any given time. In fact, I don’t really hate this at all. A two year or even three year deal around $12 million a year with Bader would free up some cash for the Phillies to even go out and look for another starting pitcher, perhaps an older guy that could give you 20 good starts or a swing man, and make trading Walker plausible again. I definitely wouldn’t be mad at that.
Somehow, despite all that happened, a lot more probably will happen in baseball over the next month. That’s what makes it fun though- scrolling twitter and reading all the rage tweets from people when the Dodgers land Peralta, or Phillies fans lamenting the team being “cheap” for not giving an infielder who has never hit 30 homers and has no position more money than Aaron Judge to play here this year. What would life be without this?
Apocalypse Vibes 