The Winter meetings are over. The Phillies have what appears to be an outfield. The core of their lineup- Harper, Schwarber, and Turner- is sticking around together for the next five years. They have built a very strong bullpen, probably an over abundance of quality arms there even. The Phillies have 37 players now on the 40 man roster, and a current projected payroll of $288,258,771. I am including all guaranteed contracts, projected arbitration numbers from MLBTradeRumors.com, and filling in currently unfilled roster spots with young players on the 40 man roster.

Here’s a look at the current projected 26 man roster.

Catcher- Rafael Marchan ($1,000,000) and Garrett Stubbs ($925,000). $1,925,000

Infield- Bryce Harper- 1B ($25,384,615), Bryson Stott- 2B ($5,800,000), Trea Turner- SS ($27,272,727), Alec Bohm- 3B ($10,300,000), Edmundo Sosa- Utility Man ($3,900,000), and Otto Kemp ($820,000). $73,477,342

Outfield- Adolis Garcia- RF ($10,000,000), Justin Crawford- CF ($820,000, not yet on the roster), Brandon Marsh- LF ($4,500,000), and Johan Rojas ($820,000). $16,140,000

Designated Hitter- Kyle Schwarber ($30,000,000). $30,000,000

Starting Rotation– Cristopher Sanchez- LHP ($5,625,000), Zack Wheeler- RHP ($42,000,000), Jesus Luzardo- LHP ($10,400,000), Aaron Nola- RHP ($24,571,429), and Taijuan Walker- RHP ($18,000,000). $100,596,429

Bullpen– Jhoan Duran- RRP ($7,600,000), Jose Alvarado- LRP ($9,000,000), Brad Keller- RRP ($11,000,000), Matt Strahm- LRP ($7,500,000), Orion Kerkering- RRP ($820,000), Tanner Banks- LRP ($1,200,000), Zach McCambley– RRP ($820,000), and Max Lazar- RRP ($820,000). $46,120,000

Untraded Contract- Nick Castellanos ($20,000,000). $20,000,000

Additional 40 man roster players (All are pro-rated $820,000 deals)– Jean Cabrera- RSP, Moises Chase- RSP, Yoniel Curet– RSP, Nolan Hoffman- RRP, Seth Johnson- RRP, Alex McFarlane- RSP, Andrew Painter- RSP, Alan Rangel- RSP, Pedro Leon- OF, Gabriel Rincones- OF, Weston Wilson- OF

So there are a number of additions here, some that are exciting, some that are just upgrades. Obviously with Schwarber back, the DH spot is filled and the Phillies have two feared home run threats from the left side. Garcia had a season roughly equivalent to Castellanos offensively, but he was a considerably better defensive outfielder, so he represents an upgrade- even if another one year, reclamation project has serious shades of Max Kepler written on it. The signing of Brad Keller gives the Phillies a formidable front six in their bullpen to shut down games behind a very talented starting pitching group. McCambley comes over from Miami, via the Rule 5 draft, coming off of his best season in the minors for AAA Jacksonville, featuring a wipeout slider that generates a lot of swing and miss. The Phillies also snagged Yoniel Curet from Tampa Bay after he was a 40 man roster casualty. At 24, with a very live arm, he could turn into a starter or reliever with some tweaks and work. The Phillies also signed Bryse Wilson to a minor league deal as a potential swing man.

So with three open 40 man spots, what’s next? The obvious glaring, immediate need is a catcher. The Phillies made an offer to J.T. Realmuto last week according to reports, and he hasn’t signed yet. I’m guessing they offered him two years and he wants three. They certainly could wait him out and hope he comes back, which is probably the best case scenario. They could also search the trade market and see if there’s a catcher who comes at a lower price than the estimated $12-15 million a year that Realmuto is likely to get.

They do need to trade Nick Castellanos. He now has no real purpose on this roster and needs a fresh start. If the Phillies are willing to eat enough money, I do think teams like Cleveland, Miami, and St. Louis could be destinations for him to go serve as a fourth outfielder and DH option for them. There’s not really any urgency to get that done though, at least not yet.

Zack Wheeler is going to begin the season rehabbing, and I don’t think the Phillies can really afford to just roll with Walker and Painter potentially ending up making over 20 starts each this season. Walker is fine as a fifth starter or swing man, and the Phillies could eat some of his money to send him to a team looking for a more affordable guy to play that role. There is a lot of smoke to the rumors of the Phillies having interest in Tatsuya Imai, though reports today say the Cubs and Yankees are likely to be finalists for the Japanese ace as well. Of course there is Ranger Suarez as well, but the Phillies are unlikely to meet his market in the $25-30 million range unless they move other money off the books. Even so, the Phillies should still be talking to him.

Dave Dombrowski says the Phillies outfield is probably done for now. I tend to believe him. Bellinger and Tucker are the big impact outfield bats still available, and both are left handed. If things stay as is, Garcia will be in right, Crawford in center, and Marsh in left, with Rojas serving as the fourth outfielder. The Phillies will probably want a right-handed option to play against lefties for Marsh, and the internal candidates are Otto Kemp, Weston Wilson, Edmundo Sosa, and Pedro Leon (I suppose you could argue for Castellanos too since you’re going to pay him anyway, but that ship has sailed). I wouldn’t be shocked if the Phillies kick the tires on a Rob Refsnyder type of option as well. He and Marsh would form an ideal platoon and allow the Phillies to stash Rojas away in AAA for another year. I also would not totally dismiss a reunion with Harrison Bader yet. The Phillies could take him back later in the off-season on a shorter deal, move Crawford over to left for now, and trade Marsh to teams looking for a left handed outfield option. While the Phillies clearly like Marsh, they have not liked him enough to extend him yet, and only control him for two more seasons.

If there were to be an area of the team where there could still be major upheaval, I would say it is in the infield. There are still some impact free agents who don’t hit from the left side. Alex Bregman could be a great fit, the question is how much money and how long of a deal he wants, and if the Phillies can move enough money off the books to even consider it. I’d say it’s possible, but it’s a long shot. Eugenio Suarez is projected to get three years and roughly $70-75 million total, a number more in line with what the Phillies would probably like, but they may be weary of doing so at his age (34). Kazuma Okamoto, the 29 year old Japanese slugger who primarily (but not exclusively) plays third base is very intriguing, and seems to be a low risk, high reward option, but his market seems very uncertain between now and the end of his posting period on January 4th. 25 year old Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami is probably the most intriguing option out of the third base crowd, with his prodigious power and complaints about his struggles against high velocity. His market seems even less certain than Okamoto’s. Bo Bichette is a less obvious fit as a shortstop, but he could probably slot in at second or third and provide the major right handed bat the Phillies desire. He’s going to cost a lot though. Nolan Arrenado doesn’t seem like a fit unless the Phillies have another major move somewhere else, and are getting him in a trade involving Castellanos and Bohm.

Even if the Phillies sign none of those infielders, I would still guess that Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott can be had in a trade for the right price. The Phillies top offensive prospect, Aidan Miller, ended the season in AAA. He’s probably not going to be the shortstop in Philly, so he’s either going to second or third at some point this season. Bohm is in his walk year and there are no signs of him being extended, hence all the interest in third basemen on the market. Stott has two more years of control, but also doesn’t seem to be in line for an extension, and Miller could be ready to play his way into that spot at any time. There’s also all of the Ketel Marie rumors, and while I think he’s really good, he’s 32 and makes $19.4 million for the next five years (six if he opts into the $11.5 million final year).

I don’t think the Phillies off-season is nearly done, and so far I think I approve overall of it. Garcia doesn’t blow me away as an outfield signing, but an outfield that ends up consisting of him, Crawford, and probably Marsh is better and cheaper moving forward. The bullpen looks stacked, and now you just have to wonder if they will listen to offers on Strahm. I think it’s clear that a player, or players, will be traded away besides Castellanos, even if the only major addition left is a Realmuto signing. An additional right handed bat would really be huge though, particularly if they want to improve their odds against the Dodgers.

The GM meetings are done. The deadline for adding prospects to the 40 man roster to protect the eligible ones from the Rule 5 Draft has now passed. Free agency has begun. Let’s take another look at where the Phillies 26 man and 40 man rosters are at to start the off-season. Here’s the current players on the roster, with likely payroll:

• Catchers– Rafael Marchan (approximately $1 million in arbitration) and Garrett Stubbs (approximately $925,000 in arbitration). $1,925,000
• Infield– Bryce Harper- 1B ($25,384,615), Bryson Stott- 2B (approximately $5,800,000 in arbitration), Trea Turner- SS ($27,272,727), Alec Bohm- 3B (approximately $10,300,000 in arbitration), Edmundo Sosa- Utility Man (approximately $3,900,000 in arbitration), and Otto Kemp ($820,000). $73,477,342
• Outfield– Nick Castellanos- RF ($20,000,000), Johan Rojas- CF ($820,000), Brandon Marsh- LF (approximately $4,500,000 in arbitration), Weston Wilson- DH ($820,000), and Gabriel Rincones Jr.- OF ($820,000). $26,140,000
• Starting Rotation– Cristopher Sanchez- LHP ($5,625,000), Zack Wheeler- RHP ($42,000,000), Jesus Luzardo- LHP (approximately $10,400,000 in arbitration), Aaron Nola- RHP ($24,571,429), and Taijuan Walker- RHP ($18,000,000). $100,596,429.
• Bullpen– Jhoan Duran- RRP (approximately $7,600,000 in arbitration), Jose Alvarado- LRP ($9,000,000), Matt Strahm- LRP ($7,500,000), Orion Kerkering- RRP ($820,000), Tanner Banks- LRP (approximately $1,200,000 in arbitration), David Robert-RRP ($820,000), Max Lazar- RRP ($820,000), and Andrew Painter- Long Man ($820,000). $35,960,000
• Additional 40 man rosterees, all at pro-rated $820,000 based on how many days they are in the majors this season– Jean Cabrera- RHP, Moises Chace- RHP, Nolan Hoffman- RRP, Seth Johnson- RHP, Alex Mcfarlane- RHP, Michael Mercado- RRP, and Alan Rangel- RHP.
• Payroll- $238,098,771

Alright, so as is the Phillies can fill out a 26 man roster that is not so good, and have 7 additional players on the 40 man roster (for a total of 33), at $238,098,771. They have seven available roster spots before spring training, and they will probably put Moises Chace on the 60 day IL (he’s coming back from Tommy John in Reading) to start the year, giving them an 8th spot to add then. Justin Crawford would probably make this team, but they don’t need to give him a spot yet (he could take Chace’s) before Opening Day.

So we now know some things based on Dombrowski’s public comments. Bryce Harper isn’t moving off of first base. Rojas is available in a trade. We already know Castellanos is. The outfield is an area of need. Teams are calling about the Phillies left relief trio, Jose Alvarado, Matt Strahm, and Tanner Banks. The Phillies would like to re-sign Harrison Bader, and want Crawford in the outfield. Schwarber and Ranger rejected the Phillies Qualifying Offer, so the Phillies will receive picks if they leave. The Phillies are prioritizing re-signing Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto.

Ok, so let’s do some things. Let’s assume Crawford will make this team, and will do so at Castellanos’ expense, who will be gone one way or the other. Even if they eat that whole deal, Crawford is at a league minimum. Let’s say they re-sign Schwarber for five years at $30 million per year, and Realmuto for three years at $15 million per year. With Crawford, that is $45,820,000 in added payroll. Let’s presume the Phillies also bring back Harrison Bader at two years and $13 million per year too. Now we’re at $58,820,000. We can now take Stubbs off the books, as the Phillies would highly likely not offer him arbitration since he wouldn’t make the team and is out of options. We’re already accounting for Castellanos going and Crawford taking his roster spot. Let’s just say that we’re hoping a team takes *at least* $820,000 of Castellanos’ deal for this year, thereby making Crawford a wash. Bringing back Schwarber means Gabriel Rincones Jr. returns to AAA this year as does Weston Wilson with Bader back. Rojas is your 4th outfielder, *for now.* So the Phillies add $55,435,000 in payroll, taking them to $293,533,771. One of Marsh, Bader, and Crawford would have to move to right, all three would start. Your bench would look similar to this year’s, with Marchan, Sosa, Kemp, and Rojas. Your catching is the same. Your infield is the same. Wheeler probably starts the year on the IL, moving Painter into the rotation and opening up another bullpen spot for a quarter of the year. That costs you about $205,000. You’re at $293,738,771 right now. You have 36 roster spots filled, four available.

Now again here, you’re trying to move Castellanos and maybe save more, Rojas is on the block, one would think that bringing back Bader makes you at least take calls on Marsh, teams are already calling you about your surplus of lefties (I would assume Strahm is the most likely to move), I would think Taijuan Walker is very available in a trade if you’ll eat some portion of his money, and one would have to assume that Bohm and Stott are very available to make room for the eventual arrival of Aidan Miller. Your priorities are probably a corner outfield bat, an upgrade at either second or third, a righty reliever you would throw in high leverage spots, and maybe a swing man type of starter to replace Walker. I’d like them to prioritize Ranger Suarez, but they would need to move some cash for that to be realistic. If you do the math, they have four spots available, and at least four spots of need. Because of both roster spots and money, I would think they will try to fill at least one of these needs by trading away at least one of the players above in a move to do that. The outfield free agent market lacks after your Tucker or Bellinger types, so could you trade for Jarren Duran or Stephen Kwan? It will cost you, and might require a third team. Then you get into the question of what kind of infielder you can even get. I bet the Phillies could sign Luis Arraez at their current budget, and I might prefer him on a two year deal to Bryson Stott, but is that the kind of move that wins you the World Series? And do you think Miller belongs at second or third? Do you scour the trade market for the right handed reliever you want, because the market costs too much? You at least think you try. You almost certainly need to clear some money to play in the Munetaka Murakami, Alex Bregman, and Eugenio Suarez pool at third base, unless you really might move Castellanos for Arrenado, in which case are you now in the big boy market in the outfield? Lots of moving parts here.

Even just as is, the Phillies are probably over last year’s budget. They were at $305 million without the tax (as best as I can tell), and when you add in all the benefits and bonuses they pay 40 man players and minor leaguers, you have to tack $30 million on to my nearly $294 million number. So that puts them almost $20 million over this year’s number. Dombrowski said payroll would be *roughly* similar. So any additional big moves you have in mind need a subtraction. The Phillies need at least another big move. Bringing back Schwarber, Realmuto, and Bader isn’t assuring you of anything. Sure, you can have high hopes for Crawford, Painter, and even Miller this season, but how high?

Let’s look at this one other way though. If you went out and did all of this, and added Bregman, or Kyle Tucker, or Cody Bellinger, or whoever you’d like, are you in any more certain of a situation to win than you are now? None of them played in this year’s World Series. They were all very good. Are you totally cooked if Arraez and Arrenado are in your infield next year? You’re probably not wildly worse off. You have a good pitching staff that probably pitches you into playoff contention unless it has massive injuries. We’re not talking about losing Schwarber, or Harper, or Turner, or Sanchez, or any other core player anywhere in my piece (I do realize we absolutely could lose Schwarber, or even Realmuto, even though I’m assuming their returns). If you keep your big three bats, your rotation, and the back end relievers you have, you were a 95 win team that won the division two straight years. You can get lucky in the playoffs with any set of role players around them, if they’re big enough for those October moments. That’s not something we have a stat for.

Part I. Part II.