morrow could be the last baseball game of the 2025 season. God willing, the Toronto Blue Jays will be World Champions (I’m not convinced, because Yamamoto). And then the off-season will be here. Either way, you’ll wake up Monday as a Phillies fan thinking about what Kyle Schwarber is going to cost.

I already laid out the basics of the Phillies situation, but let’s start over briefly. The Phillies have a significant amount of guaranteed contracts on their hands. From the first post:

The Phillies have guaranteed contracts with Trea Turner ($27,272,727 toward the luxury tax), Bryce Harper ($25,384,615), Nick Castellanos ($20,000,000), Zack Wheeler ($42,000,000), Cristopher Sanchez ($5,625,000), Aaron Nola ($24,571,429), Taijuan Walker ($18,000,000), and Matt Strahm ($7,500,000 option that vested). The owe a minimum buyout of $500,000 on Alvarado if they buy out his option ($9,000,000 if they accept it) and $3,000,000 on Bader if they decline ($10,000,000 if they accept it. That leaves them with a guaranteed payroll of $173,853,771.

Not much has changed since then, but some things have. Harrison Bader is going to opt out of his end of the mutual option, saving the Phillies $3 million. I see no way that Castellanos is back here, regardless of whether he’s traded or released. Someone else will sign him to DH or be a 4th outfielder, assuming we can’t trade him away for better savings, so the Phillies are already saving $3,820,000. This puts their guarantees at $170,033,771. I expect Alvarado to be back, whether it’s on this deal or a new one, so let’s add the $8.5 million and take the guaranteed payroll to $178,583,771 to start the off-season. The Phillies will try to trade away more of Castellanos money, and probably a chunk of Walker’s (think somewhere between $6-12 million). You can’t change these numbers much, so moving Walker and Castellanos are the only way. Castellanos could be a fit for a team that could primarily DH him, for instance like the Cardinals, but I’m not sure bringing Arrenado back for him should be their *first* choice, though I wouldn’t rule it out if other things are also happening (like a Bohm trade and the signing of a bigger bat elsewhere). Castellanos is also mentioned as a fit with the Guardians, Royals, Rangers, and Padres. The Phillies chief goal should be to move his money, not be super worried about the return. Walker is a different story. Walker had a reasonably good season. Not $18 million good, but he was competitive. If you’re eating $8-12 million off of his salary, he’s actually a reasonably nice pick up for a team seeking a fifth starter, or a bad team that needs some veteran arms to eat innings. He’s just not worth what we’re paying him.

Then there’s arbitration eligible players. I went through this too:

The Phillies have a number of players who are also arbitration eligible. MLB Trade Rumors did a piece recently projecting what those players should get, you should give them a read. They project that should the Phillies agree to offer arbitration to these players (they can decline to and let the player go to free agency), Alec Bohm ($10,300,000), Brandon Marsh ($4,500,000), Bryson Stott ($5,800,000), Edmundo Sosa ($3,900,000), Rafael Marchan ($1,000,000), Garrett Stubbs ($925,000), Jesus Luzardo ($10,400,000), Jhoan Duran ($7,600,000), and Tanner Banks ($1,200,000) would cost the Phillies roughly (these are estimates) $45,625,000.

Ok, so this is where things get a bit expensive. “The Daycare” (Bohm, Marsh, and Stott) cost $20.6 million together, and basically are roadblocks to the Phillies getting Justin Crawford and Aidan Miller into the line-up, regardless of where exactly you want to put them. Moving Bohm or Stott is a must if you want Miller up at some point next year. Marsh could co-exist with Crawford, if the Phillies move on from Harrison Bader, but I’m kind of hoping they don’t (more on that later). There’s no Earthly world where both Marchan and Stubbs should be back, neither is really ready to start at Catcher and both are out of options, so you should be trying to move one or both, depending on your plans. For argument’s sake, let’s assume for a moment that Stubbs is non-tendered (that’s not a lock to me, but it’s what you would do on paper if you keep Realmuto, and everyone else is retained.). That leaves you at $44,700,000. You’re at $223,283,771 in then-guaranteed contracts. You have a full infield, one catcher, one outfielder, a utility man, five starting pitchers, and four relievers at that point. Let’s, for the moment, add on Orion Kerkering, Daniel Robert, Max Lazar, Andrew Painter (I’m sliding Walker back into his swing man role), Justin Crawford Otto Kemp, and Weston Wilson or Johan Rojas to the roster at league minimum $820,000 contracts to fill out my pitching staff and bench. That is $5,740,000, which takes us to $229,023,771 in payroll to start the off-season. I don’t have a DH and I don’t have a starting catcher yet. I need another starting outfielder too. The luxury tax is $244,000,000. The Phillies total payroll this year was in the $305 million mark, including non-tax expenses like minor league pay, player benefits, and differed moneys. The Phillies are carrying around roughly $30 million in those areas. The Phillies also say they will be in a “similar” payroll situation next year. Based on all of that, the Phillies have about $14,976,229 million dollars before they hit the luxury tax and about $45,976,229 until they hit this year’s costs. That’s not an awful lot to spend if you’re keeping most of your own guys. The Phillies three biggest free agents aren’t likely to be cheap. Realmuto would fill the starting catcher’s spot, and two numbers I’ve seen on him were two years at $17 million a piece and three years at $15 million a piece. Either way, that effectively eats up all of your remaining room under the luxury tax. Schwarber would fill your DH spot up, but he is rumored to be costing five years and $30 to $32 million a year. Do the math on that and you quickly see that the Phillies would meet or exceed this year’s payroll just bringing those two guys back. Want Ranger Suarez back? I do, and I actually think he’s both a better investment and possibly more crucial to sustaining the Phillies success than Shwarber and Realmuto. He’s going to cost you six years at $26,000,000 or so though.

So then let’s start with a reasonable early laundry list here of things the Phillies can do, should do, or will have to do.

1. Move Castellanos and Walker and save as much as possible. This is self explanatory, and really every dollar they can move beyond the minimum helps. I’d aim to save about $8 million on Walker (hopefully a bit more, but that’s ballpark). I’d try to get from the $820,000 you’ll save just cutting Castellanos up to at least $2.5 million. Would I take a sunk cost like Arrenado back in return? Sure, if A.) I had Bohm moved out of town, and B.) If I signed a major outfield/first base/DH/second base bat already. This would be an additional $9,680,000 in savings.
2. Shop Bohm and Stott. Let’s just be honest, these two are $16.1 million of payroll roughly, neither has become a superstar yet, Aidan Miller is going to need at least one of their spots, and the Phillies have shown no interest in extending either one yet. Frankly I’m shipping them both out if there is any pathway to do so. Combined with #1, you’re at $25,780,000 in savings.
3. Move or non-tender one of their back-up catchers. Sure, you’re only saving $925,000 to $1 million, but it helps. I’ve already factored in non-tendering Stubbs though, so no new savings here.
4. Choose between Harrison Bader and Brandon Marsh. You need to open a spot up for Justin Crawford and you probably can’t afford both Bader and Marsh on this team next year. There is a world where you simply carry these three into the season as your starting outfield, but that really only works for me if you add a significant infield bat, and keep Schwarber. If you let Bader walk, it’s a wash. If you trade Marsh, you can save $4,500,000. If you let Marsh go and keep Bader, it’s basically plus $5,500,000, most likely. If you just keep both, it’s probably about $10,000,000 spent. Pick your poison.
5. Work something out with Jose Alvarado. Look, he’s far from perfect, but better late inning relief options are going to cost significantly more than $9 million. I’d offer him a two year $16 million or three year $21 million deal (so $7-8 million a year) and save what I can here. Alvarado, Strahm, and Kerkering, with Banks as a situational lefty, is not a bad unit to set up for Duran to start next season. Let’s just assume a $1 million savings for now. You’re at $26,780,000 in savings.
6. Make your offer to Realmuto, inquire about Rutschman and Herrera. The catching market behind Realmuto is a significant drop off. I’d go ahead and offer him three years and $45 million, and try to negotiate some of his differed payments from the last contract off of this year’s payroll, maybe save $2-3 million on that end. If he’s not excited about that, I’d inquire about Rutschman, who is a candidate for a change of scenery in Baltimore, and Herrera, who is a very good young catcher, but injury prone. Ryan Jeffers and Jonah Heim are also potential trade options from Minnesota and Texas, as well, and would be much cheaper than Realmuto. My main point here is that you’re unlikely to get a major upgrade, if you don’t outright downgrade at catcher, so I’d try to do something early here. Keeping Realmuto makes sense to me. Let’s say it costs you $15,000,000 a year. You now are about $11,780,000 to the positive.

This puts your payroll around $217,243,771. You have Realmuto and Marchan catching, Harper at first, Turner at short, Sosa and Kemp manning second and third, no DH, Crawford as your only settled outfielder, Weston Wilson and Johan Rojas on your bench, Sanchez, Wheeler, Luzardo, Nola, and Wheeler in your rotation, and Duran, Alvarado, Kerkering, Strahm, and Banks in your bullpen. I’m still keeping Robert and Lazar in the bullpen as placeholders, and now I’ll add Alan Rangel as a placeholder. That puts me at $218,063,771. I still need two starting outfielders. I don’t have my DH. Since we already are counting Marsh’s payroll, let’s count him as an outfielder. Now I need one outfielder and a DH. I could re-sign Bader at around $10 million a year. I could move Harper into the outfield, but then I need a DH and first baseman. I could make Harper my DH, but then I need a first baseman and outfielder. So no matter what I do with Bader, I’m almost certainly going to spend $10 million or more for him or any upgrade, and I still will need one more player. So let’s add $10 million on and move that payroll to $228,063,771. The Phillies would be just a hair below $16 million under the luxury tax and roughly $77 million below this year’s payroll at that point.

So now, who is on the menu with this money? Let’s set the Schwarber, Ranger Suarez, and Harrison Bader questions aside for a moment. You don’t want to go into the season with Sosa and Kemp starting on your infield. You would live with them platooning in one spot until Aidan Miller is ready. Miller could be your future at second or third base, so really you could look for a player at either. At second base, you’re probably looking at Gleyber Torres ($13 million a year?), Luis Arraez ($15 million a year?), or Jorge Polanco ($13 million a year?). At third base you have some larger upgrade options, particularly in Alex Bregman ($30 million a year?) and Eugenio Suarez ($24 million a year?). If you want to be a bit more creative, Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto are both options from Japan to come over, and both are under 30. If you really wanted to be creative, you could try to sign Trevor Story ($25-26 million a year, if he opts out?) or Bo Bichette ($25-26 million a year?) to move to second or third. If you were willing to move Harper to DH or back to the outfield, or you just didn’t re-sign Schwarber, now you can take a look at Pete Alonso ($30 million a year range) and Cody Bellinger ($28 million a year?). In fact, you could look at Bellinger as an outfielder too. Trent Grisham ($15 million a year?) is coming off of a career year, which worries me, but he would be a more affordable option. Kyle Tucker ($42 million plus a year?) is an option in the outfield as well. You could also entertain a trade for Jarren Duran ($8 million?) from Boston, who is considerably cheaper, perhaps in exchange for Bohm and/or Stott if they indeed have infield needs? As for pitching, I doubt they’re swimming in the Framber Valdez because then why not sign back Suarez? I could see them looking at a Dustin May/Jordan Montgomery type as a swing man, to start the season with the team while Wheeler heals (for like $2-4 million), but then why not just keep Walker Buehler at that point? Assuming they sign a reliever at all, and don’t just go with guys with options for a while (and just wait until David Robertson wants to pitch again), I would think they’d be looking at the Kyle Finnegan’s and Raisel Iglesias types of the world, a touch under $10 million.

Ok, so let’s get real for a second. It’s very obvious the front office and the owner want Kyle Schwarber back as their DH. That’s going to take the Phillies across the luxury tax at $30 million a year. That’s going to leave you around $47 million, but it’s also baking in about $10 million in free money that you would pay Bader. Of course, unless you’re going to pay Kyle Tucker (highly doubt it) or Cody Bellinger (slightly more realistic), if you’ve already re-signed Schwarber, you really should pay Bader, rather than paying more for Trent Grisham. If I could get Duran, he would be a similarly price option that would be very good too. So let’s just assume Bader is probably back here. With him and Schwarber back, I don’t need to keep both Rojas and Wilson on the roster as placeholders, so now I’ve saved myself another $820k. I have just shy of $48 million to spend, and basically need an infielder. It could be a shortstop, then I move Turner to second base, but there’s no defensive upgrade at shortstop with a tolerable bat. It won’t be a first baseman at that point, unless I want to move Harper back to the outfield and make Marsh a fourth outfielder (and shed another $820k placeholder on the roster). It’s most likely a third baseman or a second baseman though. I would focus my energies, in order, on Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Eugenio Suarez, and Luis Arraez. If I sign Bregman, I’m probably out of any other major moves, and I’m moving on to the Dustin May/Jordan Montgomery/Walker Buehler swing man market and looking at a Finnegan or Iglesias relief pick up. I might still shop for Duran anyway, as he’s affordable and good, but you’re probably close to done. Bichette gives you slightly more wiggle room, but not a ton, so you’re off-season is similar from there, but you might be able to shop for a little better relief help, if you want. If we were to go the Suarez or Arraez route, things get pretty interesting. Suarez doesn’t give you a lot more free money, but his deal would be shorter and you could probably talk ownership into a little extra leash. You could suddenly see your way into a situation where you keep Ranger Suarez, thereby basically making Painter this year’s swing man, which is fine by me. I don’t see harm in that, especially knowing that there are questions around Wheeler and Nola’s health, and Luzardo is a free agent next Winter. If you sign Arraez to play second, I almost think you *need* to take those savings and keep Ranger in Philly.

If I really had my wish list, I would actually prefer Bregman to any offensive free agent- he’s a good defensive player, he bats right-handed, and I feel decent about how he’ll age. If not him, Bo Bichette would be really nice. I would like to see Schwarber back, like all Phillies fans, but I’d be perfectly fine nabbing Alonso or Eugenio Suarez for a little less if it gets to that point. I’d prefer Ivan Herrera to J.T. Realmuto, and maybe Adley Rutschman even to Realmuto for the right deal, but I think re-signing Realmuto probably makes the most sense. I want Crawford and Miller both in the lineup by next September. I want Painter on the team next season, even if I have more than five starting pitchers. I want Alvarado back, and maybe one more solid relief arm. I think you have to keep at least one of Bader and Marsh, if not both, but I’d really like the Phillies to get Duran from Boston. If I can’t land a major (Bregman/Bichette/Eugenio Suarez) infield bat, Luis Arraez would interest me. I want Ranger Suarez back, and think it’s the best in-house investment the team can make. I’m ready to move on from Bohm and Stott if I’m ready for Miller this year. I obviously want to trade Castellanos and Walker. After all that, go work on extensions with Luzardo and Jhoan Duran. And for the love of God, stop this idiotic talk about trading Harper, no one really wanted to do that, right?

We all know I’m not going to get what I want though.

I tend to value experiences more than I used to. I actually have felt this way for several years, as I was arriving at the dawn of my fifth decade, but that’s more true than ever after going through a near death experience. I kind of now see that youth is wasted on the young, that all of those playoff and World Series games I got to go to in the Rollins-Howard-Utley-Hamels era, like all the great concerts and other events I got to go to, they were a blessing. I took a long moment to enjoy and take in the atmosphere when I was at game three of the 2022 World Series, as I realized what a childhood dream it was when I was there in 1993 and 2008. You don’t get these experiences every day. In fact, they can be taken away from you in the course of a random Summer afternoon. You need to enjoy it while it’s here.

Saturday evening I was at the Pass & Stowe bar in Citizens Bank Park before the game and having a seat for a moment and that dawned on me again. This group of Phillies has had a really good run, and we ought to appreciate it. “Red October” over these last four years has been the most incredible atmosphere one can experience in sports. I’m grateful to all of these guys, even the guys who are playing terribly right now. Four years is an eternity though in sports. Time passes everyone by. That 2008 group was the greatest era in Phillies history, and it was stone cold dead by the end of 2012. Sports are a young man’s game. Economics are a cruel reality. Being sentimental in the sports industry, and throwing around money chasing a ghost you aren’t going to catch is how you end with an old and broken team. It’s either going to happen or it isn’t. The people running your team need to know that. Otherwise you’ll be in a stadium with 15,000 people in three years watching a losing team play out the string.

I think the Phillies are actually not at the end of their window of contention if they want to stretch it with this group. In fact, they’ve won more games every year since Bryce Harper signed in Philadelphia. There’s a strong argument that you re-sign Schwarber and at least one of Realmuto and Suarez, and just hope your team is the hot one next October. You just run it back, because statistically it’s your best odds of reaching your goal, a championship. Look, we have done this in Philadelphia with the 76ers for the better part of the last decade. Our best shot has been to hope for a healthy Embiid, paired with some star guard, and things maybe will fall our way one year. Then we get to the next season, and things end the same way in the playoffs, or worse. Yes, the Phillies best chance of winning a title is to keep running out a team that has one of the best records in the league. Sure, one year they won’t be that good anymore. We don’t know when that will be, of course, but until then we should just keep trying it with tinkering around the edges. I’m sure that’s what the analytics say.

The Phillies are down 2-0 going to Los Angeles for game three facing elimination. Their top three hitters are a combined 2-for-21 with a few walks through two games, but it looks exactly like last year’s Mets series (if not worse), which kind of looks like the last few games of the 2023 Diamondbacks series, which of course, kind of looks like games 4 through 6 of the 2022 World Series. Not only have the top three bats gone cold again, but the bullpen has wilted under the unkind, bright lights of the playoffs, where every out has outsized meaning. The manager has again, ran out his bullpen arms for one or two too many outs in big spots. Topper has had a great four years here, but Dave Roberts is doing what Carlos Mendoza and Torey Lovullo did before him- press the right buttons. The other teams make adjustments in the series, and even in the games, and the Phillies just can’t quite answer. There just isn’t some stroke of brilliance there, nothing that stems the tide against them. And it’s like this every October. Sure, one year it didn’t happen until the World Series. Here’s the truth though- the Phillies are one loss from a third straight playoff series loss to a team that won less games than them in the regular season. There is something pretty damning about that alone, let alone that it looks the same each time.

The playoffs are just a different beast than the regular season in every sport. In baseball, the biggest difference is that you do have to lean much heavier on your best players. Your bench players can’t really be getting many at-bats, let alone starts. Your middle relievers should be getting the bare minimum number of outs. Your starters should be willing to come out of the bullpen. We can criticize Topper for the fact he is less aggressive within these realities than other managers, but that’s really not the whole story. The Phillies have a tremendous payroll. They have big time star players. Those players have just come up a little short each year. And now we’re one loss from that happening again.

Don’t eulogize the living. Ranger Suarez will throw game three, and while starting pitching hasn’t been the reason the Phillies are losing, Suarez has shown in the past that he is capable of pitching on a whole other level in big spots. Then you have the choice of going with Nola or going back to Sanchez, and well, if you win that game this is a totally different discussion about the greatest comeback in team history. I mean, in truth, they had a better year than the Dodgers and they have been pretty good against them for several years. There’s no reason this team *can’t* comeback in this series. Five game series are notoriously weird and lend themselves to weird outcomes. There’s plenty of reasons to still think it’s possible.

The problem with that though is I’m watching these games. Nothing we see makes us think this is going to happen. In fact, I recently went back and re-read what some of the national writers had to say before the 2022 season about this group, and it’s ringing true. The group the Phillies had assembled would certainly have nights they mashed the ball, but they also were prone to streaky hitting and a lot of strikeouts. This team is capable of putting on a show, but they are also capable of just being shut down for a week. In 2023, the Diamondbacks pitchers had a meeting on the flight back to Philadelphia for game six where their coaches essentially told them to stop giving in and throwing predictable pitches (aka- fastballs for strikes) to this team when they were sitting on it. This group has always been very good, but very flawed. It’s feast or famine. We’ve seen famine before. This looks like famine.

Wednesday night the Phillies will play another baseball game, then they will do so again if they win, on Thursday. Essentially a week from now they might be white hot and preparing for the NLCS, or they may be eliminated by Thursday morning. If this continues towards where it looks like they’re going, I think it’s time for a shake up with these Phillies. That, in my mind, should mean changes to the manager and the coaching staff. It should mean a willingness to trade some starting position players away. It should mean a willingness to let any combination of Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, and Ranger Suarez go to free up space to add new and different pieces. It should absolutely mean guaranteeing a spot to Justin Crawford off of a sensational season in left and center fields in AAA this season, who looks ready to come in and make an impact. It should also mean laying out a pathway for Aidan Miller to hit his way into the 2026 infield by the middle of next summer. I would suggest that if this series doesn’t turn around, the Phillies should be married to absolutely nothing going into the off-season. Running it back in 2026 is most likely going to end how all the other years have ended, or worse. Sure, fans will be sad when players who did great things for this group walk away. Fans will eventually learn to love future players if they come in and perform.

Again, as I said above, appreciate everything you’ve had. Also, for all things a season. Father Time is unbeaten.