Bob Brooks told folks he had the support of the Governor. I guess he meant the Lt. Governor. He also claimed Hakeem Jeffries himself wanted him to run. Maybe he meant Deadbeat Bernie Sanders. Then there was his claim that labor was going to run over to support his campaign. I guess he only meant SEIU and his own Fire Fighters union.
I suppose Bobby found some friends though, as you can see in his graphic above- a bunch of State Legislators who don’t live in the 7th Congressional District. You have Representatives and Senators from as close as Mt. Pocono and Scranton, or Philadelphia and lower Bucks County to the South, and as far as from Harrisburg and west of Pittsburgh, and hell, even Erie. What you don’t see is either Democratic State Senator from the Lehigh Valley. You don’t see any of Allentown’s Democratic State Representatives, either of Bethlehem’s, or the one in Easton. You don’t see the Lehigh County Executive, the former Democratic Congresswoman, or any local Lehigh Valley politician. No one here, who actually has to deal with nominating Bob Brooks actually wants to nominate Bob Brooks. He has a laundry list of Democratic politicians from the rest of the state, all of whom are making the political calculation that it’s good politics to support a statewide union President in some other district. I get it. It’s very misleading though. It’s probably helping him raise money, his campaign is claiming to have raised $100k in the first 24 hours, but I’m sure that’s largely from outside of the Lehigh Valley too, like an other candidate.
Maybe the problem for Brooks is too many people in PA-7 know too much. The stakes in the Lehigh Valley are too high to back a candidate who probably won’t be able to defend himself when the Republicans come for him. He calls himself a “family man” on his website, but the conduct doesn’t match the words.
This whole campaign is a John Fetterman styled bait and switch. Run as one thing, be another. Build all kinds of support from people not here, be vague with everything, then be something totally different. Not coincidentally some of the same folks are involved. I have a feeling the disappointment will come earlier this time. There’s a reason they call this man Crooksy.
Well, it was finally time for Bob Brooks to announce his run for Congress yesterday. When this saga all began, there were promises of the Governor endorsing Brooks and calling on everyone else to drop out, as well as a wave of unions switching their endorsements to back Brooks. Instead what we got was the Lieutenant Governor that like 3% of the Lehigh Valley has heard of, the farce of an endorsement from SEIU, Brooks own Fire Fighters union, and a Congressman that was the warm up act for Bernie Sanders in Bethlehem. Oh, and we got Bernie Sanders, the two-time Presidential Primary loser. What a shock. Bernie certainly sees a lot of himself in Bob.
The one area they are a perfect match in is running campaigns to be a spoiler. Long after he had no chance at victory, Bernie Sanders continued his campaign for President in 2016, doing harm to Hillary Clinton. Bob has no pathway to victory in this race, but he’s unwittingly running to throw this race too.
When you get down to it, it makes complete sense Bernie Sanders would pick Bob Brooks to be his candidate in PA-7. It also makes sense that the rest of the JV squad was sent in to endorse instead of the Governor, Democratic Leader of the House, and everyone else they promised. The birds of the feather really did flock together.
Well, let’s try again. This is like the fourth time that Bob Brooks has been set to announce he’s entering the race for Congress. Maybe this time he means it. Then again, now that I’m writing it, I doubt it. But he’s supposed to announce his candidacy today though.
Bob Brooks is president of the Pennsylvania Professional Fire Fighters Association and a small business owner. He served more than 20 years as a firefighter and EMT for the city of Bethlehem before retiring in March. He has taken on many public safety leadership positions locally and statewide, including on Governor Josh Shapiro’s transition committee on emergency management as a member of the Pennsylvania State Fire Advisory Board. He has coached many levels of baseball in the community, most recently at Nazareth Area High School. Do you find this a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not a convincing reason to vote for Bob Brooks?
I dunno, I feel like the buzzwords “firefighter,” “small business,” and “Shapiro” were enough positives, but baseball coach didn’t move anyone? Yet no one seemed to care.
While this seems foolish to me, others disagree. According to reports, SEIU will be endorsing rather quickly in this race. After weeks of claiming the Governor will endorse on day one, reports are now that he will not endorse at all in this race. In the least shocking news of the race, the IAFF will reportedly switch their endorsement to their brother in arms, as they actually should. If you listen to at least one of their leaders though, they’re switching because I was too mean to the guy here. I doubt I actually hurt someone’s feelings if they’re tough enough to run into a fire, but politics is a contact sport. Toughen up, buttercup.
At the top I posted a screenshot of the text message Brooks agreed to send on the behalf of his now opponent, Lamont McClure, endorsing him earlier in this race. One line really stands out for me, because it explains exactly why this cynical candidacy shouldn’t get off the ground:
“I know a thing or two about putting out fires, but the one going on in the Republican-controlled Congress is too big, even for me.”
Out of town Republican running for the Democratic Congressional nomination Ryan Crosswell found Northampton County over the weekend to meet the Democrats there and ask for their support for him for Congress. Good for him honestly. Unfortunately, I hear it went very badly. One candidate called him an opportunist in her speech, for which she is spot on. Another noted his “in-artful use of a political metaphor.” I’m down the beach this week and didn’t get to see the bumbling, blunder filled speech, so I asked some people what he said. Apparently he claimed he’s been fighting the nomination of Emil Bove to the Third Circuit Court of Appeals in Philadelphia. Now of course that’s silly- Crosswell is no longer at the Justice Department, after “bravely” cutting and running from his former post, he’s also not a Senator or staffer dealing with the nomination, and there’s no public record anywhere of him leading some kind of protest. I’m glad he opposes Trump’s henchman for the nomination, but based on what? He’s opposed to unions too. Neither one left Trump after his flunkies attacked the Capitol on January 6th. Both of them were fine with Trump when the high court struck down Roe v. Wade. Based on their long held Republican views, when Crosswell registered as a Republican in Louisiana, North Carolina, and Washington D.C., I would presume Mr. Crosswell is for this nomination. I guess he’s not though, this time. Maybe there’s a primary coming up, or something.
I’m pretty sure that if I told you Bob Brooks was entering the race for Congress on say, tomorrow, he’d push back his announcement. I guess it’s something I said. While he reportedly has lined up SEIU, his own union, and the DCCC, he’s now delayed for over a month and a half since initially telling people he would enter. Coincidentally, not much that was initially promised has happened either. The Governor called no one to ask them to drop out, and sources around the Governor claim that never happened. Not coincidentally, they have not pushed anyone out. Two sources within Shapiro land adamantly claim he will not endorse in the Democratic Primary. Even so, Brooks-watch has outlasted several Trump scandals now.
It is clear that Brooks hired a paid media team, and now two separate sources relay that he has hired staff. He has hired a manager who managed a Congressman that recently flipped a long time red seat in a neighboring state. He has also apparently hired a finance director who will also serve as Deputy Manager. He is taking on some significant payroll with his hires before he even enters and raises any money. Everyone better hope that Brooks raises money the way some folks initially were told he would, and not at the “$175-200k” level that they’re now downplaying expectations to for him. Maybe they’re worried that Democrats won’t like him?
I can’t see how this works out. I can’t imagine how anyone else thinks so either. The more I think about this, the more I think this is about taking votes from other “local” candidates and helping the union-busting, carpetbagger Republican win the primary, and making a few folks some money along the way. While the “local” candidates fight each other for scrap money, he keeps raising money from his fat cats everywhere else. Then when the primary actually comes, he out spends everyone. Brooks cuts into McClure’s Northampton vote by just enough. Boom, the DCCC gets the candidate they actually wanted, one who can raise his own money. They’ve decided that’s the most important thing a nominee can have here. Listen, I’m not going to sit here and say money isn’t very, very important. I’m just saying I’m amazed now that we have a gun nut entering the race with supposed Beltway approval, and we already literally have a Republican running in the Democratic Primary. Even a decade ago this wouldn’t fly. Here we are though.
So this was sent along to me from a woman via e-mail Wednesday. I’m not friends with Bob Brooks on Facebook, but nothing looks inauthentic about it. I also got the sense from the proton mail email address that this person is in opposition research. The woman who sent it to me noted that the folks who posted this are 3%’ers, far right nuts. Sheriff Bieber is definitely a pro-Trump character. I see that last night it got out, so I might as well comment on this.
I’d be fine with prayer in schools if these nut bags didn’t mean their kinda prayers, but our founding fathers were very clear about opposing the establishment of a state religion. I don’t know what Bob Brooks thinks this meme meant about guns, but it meant “no gun control at all.” Zero. If he wants to run as the NRA’s candidate for Congress, I guess he’s welcome to do that. I guess a Ten Commandments in every public building and an AR-15 in every home is the path forward.
I’m sure his handlers will fill him up with the right things to say, that’s their job, but all of this suggests a very “Make America Great Again” world view. As if there was some past time where prayer in schools and a good whooping at home made sure kids grew up right, to be decent Americans. This suggests that our changing society is to blame for our ailments. I guess we could go back to pre-2008, 1972, 1863, 1960, 1954, 1919, or whatever year he’d like. Look, I think the Democratic Party has gone absolutely batshit on plenty of social issues, but I’m really not longing for the backlash of conservatives who long for “yesterday.” All this shows is that the non-candidate Brooks was wildly out of step with Democratic Primary Voters, and this run for Congress is a bait-and-switch.
This is what happens when the DCCC just keeps recruiting more primary candidates, not vetting them, and then wondering why they have massive flaws. They’re already lowering expectations on him, from initially promising the Governor would ask everyone to drop out of the race, endorse him, and raise him money, to he will raise like “$175-200k” in this quarter, and then miraculously every outside group will run here to fund him. By next week they’ll be like Jeb Bush asking you to clap. This is such a bad idea.
I used to live in Vegas. The only betting I did was on sports (If only Pete Rose had said this from the start…). If you ever played the table games in a casino though, you understand the idea of going “all in.” Yesterday, Lamont McClure did that in the PA-7 race. He has a good poll and a lot of advantages in this race, but his fundraising numbers finished third last quarter. So, he loaned himself $200,000 for the campaign. This isn’t money carried over from his County Executive races or anything like that. It’s personal money.
Let’s start with the obvious here- I don’t think $200k assures victory, or anything like that. The reality is that while many of the candidates in this race are struggling to raise cash, someone will spend a lot more than $200k, possibly in this quarter alone. Rumors are that Ryan Crosswell will raise another $350k, almost entirely from outside of Pennsylvania, let alone the district. The truth is that with every additional candidate the DCCC recruits into this race, it’s more and more likely that Crosswell’s out of town Republican donors buy this primary. They don’t care, they’re fine running a Republican as a Democrat, I guess. In fact, they’re claiming their new guy will raise $175-200k, and that will bring in some outside fantasy money. The truth is they’ve not delivered a single promise to this date associated with this candidate, so why should we believe it?
Here’s what $200k does do though. $200k will pay for roughly six pieces of district-wide mail. When you’re the candidate in the lead, and you have the most name recognition, that eases any fall from grace caused by other candidates out spending you. If you’re polling 40% in Northampton County now, it means you probably hold most of that- and that’s about 18% of the total vote. What this means, in moron proof terms, is that there is no physical path to victory for a second Northampton County, labor backed candidate who currently basically polls at zero. You can scream and yell about all the fictional general election polls, all the fictional endorsements from statewide figures, and how your personal negatives actually won’t hurt you- none of that matters. If the existing front-runner spends $200k on paid communications, that’s probably not going to win the race- but I guarantee you, the other person trying to run on the same lane on the track will lose. This isn’t opinion. It’s math. I’m not sure what personal gain some people have with pushing this charade, but they’re not giving honest, decent, good advice.
Bob Brooks will finally enter the PA-7 race for Congress on Friday, and supposedly this time it *will* happen. One would think that would have nothing to do with the timeline of the biggest union in America endorsing a candidate for Congress in PA-7. According to one labor member in the Lehigh Valley though, that may not be the case.
The four existing candidates recently, and somewhat suddenly, were asked to do an interview with local SEIU leaders. Now, it’s important to understand that the SEIU local and state structure is fairly complex, but usually there’s no separation on endorsements. The reason the candidates were hastily asked to do an endorsement meeting, at least according to one person, was that the endorsement needed to be ready for Bob Brooks entry into the race. The Brooks campaign will seek to portray early momentum and inevitability. This is supposed to be a part of that.
Given the overlap of a public sector union doing their endorsement and a public sector union president entering, one could be suspicious. This doesn’t seem like something SEIU would do though. It doesn’t seem like it fits their politics, or recent past endorsement processes. Color me skeptical.
The counter point is pretty clear though- if they are standing with Brooks at a launch on Friday, the process was basically a sham. In fact, if they announce an endorsement in the next couple of weeks, or even before the end of this fundraising quarter, it appears that it was a coordinated hit from the start. I don’t really have a problem with unions knowing who they want on day one and foregoing a formal process to get there, but I do think it’s shitty to make the other candidates march in for a process that was never real.
Again, I’m skeptical this is what’s up. I guess we’re doing full disclosure here though.
The Teamsters under Sean O’Brien are going bipartisan. O’Brien is politically lost. As Trump’s GOP tries to kill labor unions of all kinds, the Teamsters President is aiding him. Somewhere under the Meadowlands, Jimmy Hoffa is not smiling.
According to Politico, the Teamsters are handing out cash to the Republican Party:
For the second year in a row, the labor union’s political arm donated to the Republicans’ House campaign arm after nearly two decades of mostly backing Democrats. The labor union’s D.R.I.V.E political action committee — Democrat, Republican, Independent Voter Education — gave the National Republican Congressional Committee $5,000 in the second quarter.
First off, the Teamsters are broke. They gave the NRCC and DCCC $20,000 combined. They are probably hurting, which makes sense, given that professionals in other trades unions will tell you their leadership has no idea what they’re doing. That union is in trouble. This should be a political earthquake of a story on it’s own, but it’s just overshadowed in the bizarre world we live in.
Second off, the Teamsters love themselves PA Republicans. Check out their list:
In addition to giving to the NRCC, Teamsters doled out a combined $62,000 in contributions to nearly two-dozen GOP congressional candidates, including in significant battleground districts:
Rob Bresnahan, Mike Kelly and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania
Pete Stauber and Tom Emmer of Minnesota
Nicole Malliotakis, Andrew Garbarino, Nick LaLota and Mike Lawler of New York
Jefferson Shreve of Indiana
Dave Taylor, Bob Latta, Michael Rulli and Dave Joyce of Ohio
Jeff Van Drew and Chris Smith of New Jersey
David Rouzer of North Carolina
Tom Barrett of Michigan
Blake Moore of Utah
Darin LaHood and Mike Bost of Illinois
Troy Nehls of Texas
Vern Buchanan of Florida
The group also gave this year to GOP Sens. Deb Fischer of Nebraska, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Jon Husted of Ohio, and Dave McCormick of Pennsylvania.
McCormick, Bresnahan, Fitzpatrick, and Kelly are Republicans who to varying degrees have to stay awake around elections. The two glaring omissions? Scotty “Insurrectionist” Perry and Ryan Mackenzie. It seems kind of obvious that even a poorly run labor union wouldn’t give to Perry. Mackenzie? Well let’s be honest, he’s just not moderate at all on labor issues. He not only opposes the right to organize and protections for labor, he opposes forward thinking solutions on automation and the rise of AI. The omission is glaring here.
If you were hired to run a college sports team tomorrow, one of your most important jobs would be to recruit the players that are going to be on your team. You would identify the ideal players that you could realistically recruit to join you, try to get the best player on your list, and then you would put your resources into helping them win. Sure, you realistically don’t mind some competition for spots on your team, but the idea isn’t to have lots of intersquad battles for spots. The idea is to get the best players and put them in the best position to win.
In an ideal world, party politics is a team sport. Staff at the DSCC, DCCC, PA HDCC, PA SDCC, and any other campaign committee, should be trying to build the strongest slate of general election candidates that they can to win the next election. I have to give the DSCC fairly high marks on that front so far this cycle. It appears that they have found the targets that they wanted in North Carolina and Ohio, and may not be far off in Maine. Only Texas looks messy so far. They’re largely avoiding stupid primaries. That’s a good thing, because primaries cost money, and campaign money is precious.
Things don’t operate quite the same at the DCCC. In PA-10, the committee got their candidate in Janelle Stelson, a candidate who finally made the district as close as it should be based on the political dynamics there. Meanwhile in PA-8, there is no major candidate yet, and according to the streets, several candidates who have track records of winning elections passed on running. The candidate that is reportedly the preferred candidate in PA-8 just had to go through a primary battle to keep her job as Mayor, and now she faces a general election with both Republican and Independent Democratic challengers, making it likely she won’t be getting into the race very soon. Meanwhile across the river in NJ-7 there are three serious candidates that are raising hundreds of thousands of dollars per quarter right now, and reportedly a fourth is about to enter, meaning whoever gets to face Tom Kean Jr. will be starting from scratch after winning a brutal primary. That probably sounds familiar to folks here in PA-7, where we’re about to get our fifth candidate in the primary to face Ryan Mackenzie. All of this while there’s a candidate clearing the field and raising hundreds of thousands of dollars in PA-1 (Bucks County), a district that Democrats have literally have no chance of winning unless Brian Fitzpatrick loses a primary (Fitzpatrick voted against Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” and has been winning by double digits for several election cycles now). If this sounds bad, don’t take it as isolated to this region- these problems are persisting in other parts of the country too.
Here in PA-7 is a case study in chaotic recruitment. There are four candidates currently in the race. After a false start or cold feet, the fifth is going to enter on Friday, according to the street word. At least three of the existing candidates met with the DCCC before entering, and received help hiring staff and building their paid media consulting team. After getting them all into the same primary, the committee is shocked to see that two of them aren’t raising a half a million dollars every three months. The third candidate they recruited has become problematic to them, because nobody bothered to vet him ahead of time to figure out he had no ties to the district and was a lifelong Republican and union buster. So since they didn’t like the candidates they had, now they’re telling everyone they have the silver bullet candidate. He doesn’t poll well, even after his bio, he’s never run for office before or raised any money, and has no obvious path to the nomination, but reality be damned. They claim the Governor wants him, and will campaign for him and raise him his money. Of course, they claimed the Governor was going to call and ask everyone to drop out a few weeks ago, but now that the call never came, that isn’t important. They’re bad mouthing the existing candidates, claiming their teams are quitting on them and they won’t show any money raised this quarter. There was a supporter of the new guy in Lehigh County claiming the existing candidates lose a non-existent general election poll to Mackenzie, and badly at that. There’s even a public-sector union member that claims they need to get the existing candidates out of the way because I was mean to somebody on this blog. The list of excuses is almost as long as the list of candidates at this point. There’s no reason to believe we won’t be doing this same thing again with a new candidate come October or November either. This is silly and pointless, and really doesn’t produce winning nominees.
Say what you want about the Republican Party, but last cycle when they decided they wanted Ryan Mackenzie to be their candidate in PA-7, they didn’t put him through a ringer to be nominated. Their leadership bought him the primary over the preferred candidate of the conservative grassroots. The God’s honest truth in PA-7, PA-8, and NJ-7 is that the DCCC could (and probably should have from a pure path of least resistance) have simply went to the most recent Democratic Congresspeople in those districts and guaranteed them support if they had run again. If they had begged hard enough, they might have ran. If they said no, fine, then you go recruit the top prospective candidate in the districts, preferably someone with a strong pathway to winning. What we have here is a mess.
The model of just recruiting a bunch of candidates, teaming them up with all-star DC consultant teams, then making them compete for fundraising dollars with each other until they all fail and you have to go find a new candidate makes absolutely no sense. Pick a candidate, skip the competition. Or if you really think they need to compete with each other, maybe don’t make the field so crowded that no one can get any oxygen. There is no silver bullet, no savior coming to save us all from that.
Apocalypse Vibes 