Todays’ the day that Lehigh County Democrats will pick their candidate to replace incoming Lehigh County Executive Josh Siegel in his Allentown and Salisbury based 22nd District seat. The candidates are lining up:

Four Democratic candidates — precinct committee person Erlinda Aguilar; Allentown City Councilwoman Ce-Ce Gerlach; Julian Guridy, an aide to state Sen. Nick Miller; and Lewis Shupe, who attempted to launch a congressional campaign in 2024 — submitted their names for consideration ahead of Thursday’s 5 p.m. deadline, Lehigh County Democratic Committee Chair Lori McFarland said.

A fifth, Douglas Kunkle, withdrew his nomination.

Kunkle apparently withdrew out of frustration with the process. Gerlach has also complained about who is and who isn’t an eligible voter, from what I’ve been told. Many expected that. The Allentown City Democrats did fold several years ago, leading to some questions about who is and who isn’t still on the committee, though it actually appears that this isn’t as real of a question as some believed. Jessica Ortiz, who had a Facebook page to run for this seat, did not apply for the Democratic nomination either.

If you put a gun to my head and asked me who is going to win today, well you wouldn’t need the gun, because I would tell you that it will be Julian Guridy. Guridy is publicly supported by Mayor Tuerk, Siegel, and Allentown’s other two Representatives, Mike Schlossberg and Pete Schweyer, and a functioning adult would guess State Senator Nick Miller, Guridy’s current boss. Does anyone think the committee is going to go out of it’s way to embarrass literally every significant elected official at the state level from Allentown? Of course not.

Gerlach is formidable (I don’t know the other two candidates very well, so I can’t comment there) and this is not the end. She has support from most of the more leftist groups in Allentown, and this committee selection is only binding for the February 24th Special Election. She is still more than able to run in the May Primary, and has a base of support for that race.

With all of that said, Guridy is going to win today.