phillies

Ring That Bell- The Long Off-Season Ahead, Part 1

/ Rich Wilkins / 3 Comments

For the fourth straight year, the Philadelphia Phillies reached the Postseason. For the fourth straight year the Phillies did not win the World Series. For the second straight year the Phillies won the NL East. For the third straight year the Phillies lost a playoff series to a team they won more games than during the season. 96 wins be damned, the second Kerkering’s throw sailed past Realmuto, the season has felt like a loss. This really seemed like it should have been the year.

It was not though, and it looked a lot like the other recent failures, prompting me and others to say it’s time to break things up a bit. Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Ranger Suarez, Max Kepler, David Robertson, Walker Buehler, and Jordan Romano are all going to be free agents. The Phillies hold a club option on Jose Alvarado and a mutual option with Harrison Bader. The Phillies only control the rights of Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, Jesus Luzardo, Taijuan Walker, and Matt Strahm for one more year. In other words, the group they built from 2022 until this past trade deadline is coming to the conclusion of their contracts. The ball club is coming to a crossroads.

The Phillies have guaranteed contracts with Trea Turner ($27,272,727 toward the luxury tax), Bryce Harper ($25,384,615), Nick Castellanos ($20,000,000), Zack Wheeler ($42,000,000), Cristopher Sanchez ($5,625,000), Aaron Nola ($24,571,429), Taijuan Walker ($18,000,000), and Matt Strahm ($7,500,000 option that vested). The owe a minimum buyout of $500,000 on Alvarado if they buy out his option ($9,000,000 if they accept it) and $3,000,000 on Bader if they decline ($10,000,000 if they accept it. That leaves them with a guaranteed payroll of $173,853,771.

The Phillies have a number of players who are also arbitration eligible. MLB Trade Rumors did a piece recently projecting what those players should get, you should give them a read. They project that should the Phillies agree to offer arbitration to these players (they can decline to and let the player go to free agency), Alec Bohm ($10,300,000), Brandon Marsh ($4,500,000), Bryson Stott ($5,800,000), Edmundo Sosa ($3,900,000), Rafael Marchan ($1,000,000), Garrett Stubbs ($925,000), Jesus Luzardo ($10,400,000), Jhoan Duran ($7,600,000), and Tanner Banks ($1,200,000) would cost the Phillies roughly (these are estimates) $45,625,000. Added together with their guaranteed contracts and the Phillies would have a starting payroll of $219,448,771. There are also a number of players on the Phillies current roster who neither have reached a guaranteed free agent contract or arbitration, and those players are renewed for next season at a minimum rate of $820,000 (if they’re up the whole season. Those players are Orion Kerkering, Max Lazar, Weston Wilson, Otto Kemp, Johan Rojas, Alan Rangel (spent some time up this year, mostly is a AAA starter), Moises Chace (coming back from Tommy John in AA, unlikely to pitch in the majors), Jean Cabrera (Pitched in Reading fairly well this year), Daniel Robert (was up and down a bit this season), Michael Mercado (has come up for short stints the last two years), Seth Johnson (has come up for short stints the last two years), Nolan Hoffman (made his debut for the Phillies late this season), Rafael Lantigua (spent the entire AAA season in Lehigh Valley and came up in the last week), and Brewer Hicklen (has spent much of the last two seasons in Lehigh Valley and appeared on the 40 man roster both years). Most of them won’t make their full salary because they will spend time in the minors, but however many spots you fill with these guys, you’ll pay out $820,000.

For our arguments sake right now, let’s assume everyone under contract is back in full, all of the players at arbitration are retained right at the rates above, and Alvarado and Bader’s options are exercised, putting the Phillies payroll at $234,948,771. In order to fill out the roster, let’s assume that Kerkering, Lazar, Robert, and Rangel are kept in the bullpen, and Kemp and Rojas are kept on the bench. They may interchange with some of the other guys on that list, but they would cost $4,920,000 more, setting the Phillies minimum payroll right now at $239,868,771. The luxury tax threshold for 2026 is $244,000,000. The Phillies would have $4,232,229 to spend before the tax, assuming they don’t non-tender some of these players or trade them.

Quite clearly, that is not enough money to bring back any of the free agents on this team right now, but I wouldn’t worry too much about that. For one thing, even cheaper players like Justin Crawford, Andrew Painter, Gabriel Rincones, and Aidan Miller all have varying chances to contribute to the team next season. Second, and probably more importantly, they will move some of the guys they have. Third, and most importantly, the Phillies are likely to go into the luxury tax again this season. With all of that said, I would be very surprised if they kept all of Schwarber, Realmuto, and Suarez- they probably can’t afford it. They also would probably be smart to not pile more money into players 32 and up (Schwarber and Realmuto) without at least trying to get younger and more athletic somewhere on the roster. With all of that said, there are other costs the team takes on- minor league payroll, player benefits, differed payments to past players (Realmuto and Didi Gregorius are both being paid next year), and the bonus pool for pre-arbitration players on the team. They come out to about $30,000,000 for the Phillies next season. So the Phillies are really only about $35 million short of what they paid out in 2025.

I would say they go into the offseason needing a catcher (Realmuto?), a power bat (Could be Schwarber, could be an outfielder or corner infielder too), and at least one high leverage reliever, if not two. If I were them, I’d take a good long look at their starting pitching, as it was great this year, but had cracks, and I’d consider bringing back Ranger Suarez. I would prioritize extensions for Luzardo and Duran, and I’d try to work out a two or three year deal at a lower average annual value (luxury tax hit) with Bader and Alvarado. Finally, I’d prioritize getting Crawford and Painter onto the active roster early next season, even if it’s not an ideal role. Notice the Dodgers had some young starting pitchers (Sheehan and Sasaki) in their playoff bullpen, it’s okay to bring a guy up and build his role there. This is where things start from. We’ll dive further in, in a couple of days.

Steps 1 & 2 Down- Red October Secured, the NL East Defended

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment
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On Sunday night, long after their game with the Royals had ended in disappointment, the Phillies clinched a spot in the postseason thanks to other teams losing. This marked the fourth straight season the Phillies had reached Red October, a streak that probably makes the the third best era in Phillies baseball history. The 1976-83 Phillies Group secured five division titles, two National League pennants, and the 1980 World Series. The 2007-2011 Phillies won five consecutive division titles, two National League pennants, and the 2008 World Series. This group now has four consecutive playoff appearances, two National League East titles, and an NL Pennant. Clearly, there’s just one thing left for them to do. They’ll get their chance…

Of course, they still had to win that second division title, and in the early hours of Tuesday on the East Coast they did that by beating the Dodgers 6-5 in extra innings. This feels a lot different than last year. On the one hand, last year was their first division title as a group, and felt like something they needed to do. This year felt like a simple statement. On the other hand, last year they limped into it. This year they roared.

This team faced a lot of challenges. Obviously the loss of Wheeler hurts. Aaron Nola, their longtime #2 starter, missed most of this season. Their game three starter for a couple of these playoff runs, Ranger Suarez, started a month late. Their two offseason bullpen signings both tanked, and their opening day closer got suspended half a season for PED’s. Their franchise player missed significant time in season. Their starting shortstop and third baseman are hurt now. Their left fielder most of the year struggled, their right fielder most of the season went cold in the second half, and it took them months to figure out center field. This was not a bloodless pathway back to October. This team took a lot of shots.

Yet, here we are, 90 wins, a repeat as division champs, a fourth straight trip to the playoffs, and a really good shot at a bye or home field. And, it didn’t even feel like they were amazing doing it. Again, sports are about winning, not being pretty. The Phillies showed that to the world, again. Say whatever you want about Rob Thomson, he’s getting the job done. Now he has a few more steps to take.

Some Trade Deadline Primer Thoughts on the Phillies

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

It’s July 21st. The Phillies are 56-43. They have a half game lead over the Mets in the NL East. Things are really not bad. One could argue that if nothing happens in the next ten days, they are still highly likely to make the playoffs. They have the best starting pitching rotation in Major League Baseball, and they have depth. Their fate literally may come down to whether their pitching and maybe Harper and Schwarber are hot when the playoffs start. There is no rhyme or reason to picking who wins the World Series, it’s usually just whoever can get on a run for a month.

It doesn’t feel like the Phillies are going to win though. Sure, it didn’t feel that way for most of 2008, or in 2022, but feelings are not as irrelevant as advanced metrics can make them feel. Were you 100% confident in Craig Kimbrel in 2023? No, but he did have a pretty good year until the NLCS. In 2024 the Phillies felt literally unbeatable until June, then they limped to the division title and lost right away in October. The Phillies are back in first and that’s great, but the season to this point feels more like last year from June on than the early portion. The bullpen is a mess. The lineup really isn’t that bad statistically, but it’s wildly inconsistent. They’re really not a great team on the road. They have lost series against current playoff contenders San Diego, San Francisco, Milwaukee, St. Louis, and New York this season (they’ve beaten some of them too). Sure, they absolutely can beat Los Angeles or Chicago in a playoff series. They have to get there to even have that conversation though.

If all I did was write down that they need bullpen help, there would be no point to me writing this. Orion Kerkering, Tanner Banks, and Matt Strahm can’t really be all they use in a playoff series. I like signing David Robertson yesterday, but that doesn’t fix their bullpen problem on it’s own. If we’re being realistic, the Phillies probably need two more relief arms at the deadline, but might get away with one good one because they’ll shift a starter or two into their bullpen for the postseason. Again though, everyone knows this. They desperately could use some help internally, but their AAA bullpen might be worse than the big league one.

The bigger problem here is that the Phillies could probably use a bat too, and there aren’t really many of them available. Center field is a black hole, left field might somehow be worse, second base has been very disappointing, and a number of other spots in the lineup have been fine, but inconsistent. Without even getting into the potential future without Kyle Schwarber, or even to a much lesser extent J.T. Realmuto, the Phillies offense needs a re-tool. They’re no longer the feared group they were in the 2022 World Series run. The problem is, there’s not a lot of difference makers on the market. In fact, the solution may be sitting in AAA, with Justin Crawford hitting .325, with an .830 OPS as of this morning. The solution to the offense could simply be slotting him in center, full-time platooning Marsh and Otto Kemp in left, and maybe finding a bench bat on the trade market that kills left handers. Of course there’s a major problem with that thought process though- how do you get the kind of relief arm the Phillies need without moving a Crawford in a trade? Especially if you correctly don’t want to trade Andrew Painter for a reliever? If you’re keeping Painter off the market, it’s hard to hold onto Crawford and Aidan Miller, your best two offensive prospects. Mick Abel has recovered a lot of value this season, but he still won’t land you a Mason Miller or Emmanuel Clase on his own. And if you trade Crawford? You still have two glaring holes in your outfield to fill.

I’m not saying I don’t want Miller or Clase, but I am saying that I haven’t gone into the fully crazy fan mode where I’m willing to move Painter or the whole system to get them. The Phillies have multiple needs right now, and the problem they face is that the solution to one is the cost of the other. I would not be upset if they find a team who is willing to move them multiple relief arms, or a relief arm and a right-handed bat, instead of making the biggest splash for the biggest reliever. This team is obviously not a bad team, but it is conceivable that quantity is as important as quality for them. The 2008 Phillies got players like Joe Blanton and Matt Stairs to load up for the postseason. The 2009 Phillies got Cliff Lee. The 2008 team won. Again, I’d love seeing Miller or Clase in South Philadelphia this Fall, but I hope the front office isn’t so in love with them that they throw all caution to the wind- because I don’t think they alone will be enough.

With all of that said, I think the worst outcome of all would be nothing. The Dodgers, Cubs, Mets, Brewers, and Padres are the current other playoff teams, and while they’re all good, that’s hardly terrifying when you have the best rotation of the group. The Phillies absolutely need to make moves in the plural and go for this thing. A set up man or an Austin Hays level bat won’t do it. Dave Dombrowski is known as an aggressive executive, one who goes for the World Series every chance he gets, and gets there a lot. The Phillies need him to live up to that billing over the next week or so. You just can’t waste opportunities like this.