Politics

Understanding the Modern Democratic Party

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment
Bill Clinton speaking in front of an American flag at the Hotel Bethlehem during the 2008 Presidential Primary season.
I guess Bill and I saw the same thing?

If you want to know where you’re going, you need to know how you got there. The Democratic Party is in a seeming civil war right now. This week it was Illinois, last week it was Texas. On one side, the Biden/Clinton coalition of voters from 2016/2020 and on the other, the Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren wing. The actual policy differences in the two are only marginal, really. Both favor expanding health care access, fighting climate change, funding things like public education, and access to reproductive health care. The disagreement is largely based on details and how far to go, from a policy standpoint. Philosophically they are different though. The Bernie/Warren wing of the party wants to build a Democratic Party that resembles a European Green/Social Democratic Party, or British Labour under Corbyn. The Clinton/Biden voter wants a more center-left party. How did we get here and how do you square the two?

To understand the modern Democratic Party I think you need to go backwards and start at there different dates- 1966, 1992, and 2006. They are actually not similar elections at all. Two are midterms, one a Presidential. Democrats won in 2006, while 1966 and 1992 are a mixed bag in many ways. So why these years? I’ll start with 1966, because to me it’s the beginning of all modern politics (not that nothing mattered before that, but nothing should really be viewed as modern). 1966 was the first election after the passage of LBJ’s Civil Rights agenda in Congress. It was the beginning of Democrats decline among white voters that truly culminates in the Reagan years, then relatively stabilizes with Clinton. Democrats started to see some losses in 1966. Many folks like to attribute Johnson’s fall in popularity with Vietnam, but any honest analysis tells you it was mostly otherwise. In 1968 the nation would move to electing Nixon on such themes as “the silent majority,” “law and order,” and eventually “peace with honor.” White voters began their move in 1966, but accelerated it in 1968 and especially 1972. Watergate did interrupt Republican dominance in 1974 and 1976, but by 1980, 1984, and 1988 Republicans were carrying Catholics, running 60% neighborhood numbers with White voters, and carrying the Midwest. They also began eroding the “Solid South” Democrats had enjoyed since the Civil War, which ultimately culminated in the 1994 takeover of Congress, but really took hold under Reagan. In fact, 1966 was the “canary in the coal mine” that foreshadowed Republicans winning five of the next six Presidential elections. Obviously that takes me to 1992 and Clinton. Clinton was the first Democrat to truly reap the benefits of the growing support the party had from Black voters. He also made gains with “soccer moms” and other “normie” voters who were alarmed by the “Christian Coalition” and other culture warrior conservatives. Bill Clinton pulled in white moderate voters and majorities with most non-white groups. Clinton largely abandoned the ideological left of the 1960’s politically. Clinton’s White House was less progressive dogma than his Democratic predecessors, even if that is a bit embellished by some (see his 1993 budget). Sure, Clinton invested heavily in education, the environment, and “built a cabinet that looks like America,” but he also did welfare reform, balanced the budget, was a free trader, and had “Sista Soulja.” Clinton aimed for broad appeal that made him less popular with left-wing academics, ex-hippies, and ideological leftists. He was really popular too, sitting in the 60’s through the end of his term amidst an economic boom. Clinton was personally problematic though. He had the Lewinsky affair. His Vice-President ran for President and lost a very, very controversial election. And probably most importantly of all, his wife became the first ever First Lady to run for office herself after the White House, winning a U.S. Senate seat in New York, which was of course not Bill’s home state. Of course we know the early 2000’s after Clinton were a tumultuous time as well, with 9/11 and the Iraq War dominating much of the discourse through the 2004 Election. And that pretty much takes us up to modern times.

The third year I put in there was 2006, and 2006 is truly the beginning of what the Democratic Party is now. George W. Bush was deeply unpopular by 2006. Iraq, Katrina, a failed Supreme Court nomination, and an attempt to privatize Social Security had worn him down. The Democratic Party was almost identity-less at that point though. The party’s last two Presidents, Carter (defeated) and Clinton (problematic personally) were memories by then. The last two House Speakers who had been run out of office in defeat (Jim Wright of Texas had been forced to resign and Tom Foley of Washington was defeated in his re-election). Tom Daschle’s brief period as Majority Leader in the Senate was a bad memory (Iraq, the Patriot Act, his own defeat in 2004). The Supreme Court had been narrowly conservative since the Reagan-Bush period. The party had no recognizable national leader really. And yet, the party won, and won a lot. Democrats took both houses of Congress in a wave election. Nancy Pelosi became the first woman to lead Congress as Speaker. Moderate mormon Harry Reid, a marginally pro-life Nevada Senator took over the Senate. Democrats took the House winning in places like Suburban Pittsburgh, took the Senate by flipping states like Missouri, Montana, and Virginia, and won Governorships in places like Ohio. This wave in non-traditionally blue areas set the stage for 2008 and the birth of today’s Democratic divisions, in part because the Democrats basically won Congress without a real ideological direction. They ran talking about the minimum wage, the war, health care, and ending corruption. It wasn’t exactly a far left manifesto.

A lot of people have revised the history of the 2008 primaries to fit their narratives that emerged after 2016. First off, the race was essentially a one-on-one race from New Hampshire on. Barack Obama’s coalition was built largely on Black voters, young voters, and progressive white voters. Hillary Clinton dominated among rural voters, older voters, and Hispanic voters. These coalitions dramatically changed by 2016, and even again by 2020. While Clinton won women on the whole pretty solidly, she lost young women in her 2008 run, and Black women. Obviously that was different in 2016. Obama’s coalition didn’t really crack based on age at all. Hillary continuously won in primaries, Obama won caucuses. Opposition to the Iraq War was a huge selling point for Barack Obama, particularly with lefties and young people. Obama’s coalition more closely actually resembled Bernie Sanders campaigns, and yet he was able to win. That was largely a product of Black voters sticking by him loyally. That’s about the only theme from that primary that holds up moving forward though. The rest of his primary coalition essentially forms the backbone of today’s populist left.

I think it’s fascinating to guess as to why most of the groups in the Obama coalition moved from him in 2008 to a more combative populist by 2016. There’s not really an obvious reason. Barack Obama, even today, polls as the most popular Democratic politician in the country pretty easily, and across most ideological spectrums. Some surmise that he wasn’t tough enough on Wall Street after the 2008 crash, or that he didn’t deliver a “public option” in Obamacare, or that he didn’t get out of Afghanistan and close Guantanamo, or all kinds of other theories of his shortcomings, and yet there’s not an ounce of data in polling that suggests these voters soured on Obama even a bit in his Presidency. Interestingly it does seem that Clinton’s coalition did crack quite a bit on their support of her. The more rural Democratic voters who had supported her in places like West Virginia and South Dakota joined young voters and progressive white voters in backing Bernie Sanders in 2016, while Black voters joined older voters and Hispanic voters in backing Clinton’s 2016 primary campaign. While Obama’s poll numbers stayed strong, something clearly had moved within his original base by 2016. Not only did a lot of his coalition move to Bernie, a fatally sizable portion of progressive whites, young voters, and even Clinton’s 2008 rural base either moved to Donald Trump or didn’t vote for her. While she got virtually the same amount of votes as Obama got in 2012, and won the popular vote, Clinton lost the election. Florida, Ohio, and Iowa moved comfortably right into Trump’s coalition. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin moved towards Trump by the skin of his teeth. Clinton narrowly hung onto Maine, New Hampshire, and Minnesota. Obama had won all nine of these states both times, and rather convincingly for the most part.

The thing I find interesting about 2016 is that it really wasn’t supposed to happen. The progressive champion of the moment in 2015 was Elizabeth Warren, and she simply missed her moment in time to try and run for President. Joe Biden was probably the most bullet proof candidate the Democrats would have had at that time, and most of official Washington dismissed him as a candidate. There were some dead-ender “normies” that thought Martin O’Malley was a real alternative to Hillary, but basically the Beltway was ready to hand her the nomination. Bernie Sanders had some real people in Iowa and New Hampshire, but his national campaign apparatus didn’t read like a powerhouse. Republican operatives thought they were going to get a battle between Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Chris Christie, almost all of them thought Trump was a joke. Bernie and Trump were literally no one’s idea in DC. Then our politics turned on it’s head.

Of course 2018 did happen, but it now looks more like an anomaly than a sea change in our politics. Democrats made a real pivot towards nominating women for Congress in the aftermath of Hillary’s defeat and managed to take the House this way. Of course, Democrats had cultivated no new leaders in the time from 2006 until 2018 though, and Pelosi was back in the Speaker’s office. Pelosi is probably the closest thing to middle ground between the left and center in the Democratic national leadership, but even that isn’t neutral. 2018 brought a new majority in the House of Obama/Clinton Democrats, but also brought about “The Squad,” and did little to assuage the oncoming 2020 nomination fight.

The early portion of the 2020 primaries was a mirage. Joe Biden eventually was nominated by dominating with a coalition of Black, Hispanic, rural, and older Democratic primary voters that was both more moderate and yet more broad than Clinton’s. In the early going states of Iowa and New Hampshire though, he struggled while splitting his electorate with Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar. Once he edged them out in Nevada for second though, he consolidated his electorate in South Carolina and ran away with the nomination by the widest margin since Kerry in 2004. Bernie Sanders had some early success before fading, building largely off of a coalition of younger Hispanics, younger voters in general, and progressive white voters. Bernie also faced problems early on with splitting his vote, particularly the progressive female portion of it, with Elizabeth Warren. The other obvious weird part was Covid essentially interrupting the primaries shortly after Super Tuesday and making the primary seem to be over. Even so, Biden had built a substantial lead after Super Tuesday and lead every poll at that point.

Biden went on to win the 2020 election with the broadest coalition in American history, getting 51%, over 81 million votes, and 306 electoral votes. Democrats won the Senate and made Chuck Schumer the Senate Majority Leader along with Pelosi still leading the House. From there, things sort of went down hill. In 2021, Roe v. Wade was overturned, setting off rage within the Democratic ranks. In 2022, despite rising inflation and Biden’s unpopularity, Democrats lost single digit seats in the House, despite losing the popular vote by over 2 million votes and ultimately narrowly losing the House. Frankly, the defeat looked way better than it actually was, and the loss was foreshadowing of what was to come. Biden’s popularity continued to drain over economic concerns and worries about his age. He ended up dropping out in the middle of the 2024 Presidential race, despite what was essentially a margin of error deficit in the polls. He was largely pushed out by major donors, many of whom had been fans of his as Vice-President and even as a Senator. He was replaced by his Vice-President Kamala Harris, who immediately attempted to moderate her image more towards that of what Biden’s had been in 2020. She talked about her time as a Prosecutor, talked about fighting inflation, attacked Trump as an unacceptable, authoritarian figure, and tried to appeal to moderate voters with endorsements from former Republican electeds like Liz Cheney. Harris leaned into the image of a tough prosecutor type, something she had leaned far away from in 2020 when supporters of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren called her a “cop.” Republicans pushed back, seeking to use her 2020 campaign statements to cast her as a far left liberal and continuation of Biden’s policies, which by then they had cast as more liberal than he ran as. They hammered her on support for transgender people, support for a liberal border policy, and support for Biden’s economic policies. Data says it worked. While Harris bled out less votes from her own base than Hillary had in 2016 (it’s true, the left really did vote for her), she lost a lot of moderate Biden voters. Some flipped. More didn’t show up.

All of this brings us to today. The Democratic Party’s “brain trusts” in DC seem to be moving the party in a very different direction suddenly. They seem to think the way to bring back the “missing” Biden voters is to move which voters they are prioritizing with their messaging. Most of the front-runners for the 2028 Presidential race that are being created by DC consultants and the media are white men, many of them Governors. So in this group, think Shapiro, Newsom, Pritzker, Beshear, Gallego, and Murphy. The other group getting attention are non-white populist progressives such Ro Khanna and AOC, and while he’s not a Presidential contender, Zohran Mamdani is a figure they are pushing. Then there is a whole other element of candidate rising amongst the consultant class- the “white masculine man” that is going to bring back appeal to white men. This is a solution in search of a problem. as Kamala Harris actually did better with white men than Biden, Clinton, or Obama, even winning the college educated white men. Even so, we’re seeing the rise of candidates like Graham Platner, Bob “Crooksy” Brooks, and James Talarico. Even worse, the white guy governors seem to be embracing this crap too. Newsom is going to go on human pile of dogshit Hasan Piker’s podcast to talk. Shapiro is endorsing Brooks. Senators such as Gallego, Murphy, Heinrich, and Whitehouse are embracing Platner. The fix is in. They want to go all in on “manly” white men as their path forward. What problem does it solve? I’m not sure. They’re doing it though.

I think the clear thing to understand is this isn’t the party’s top problem, but the party’s lack of appeal to white people is a problem. If states like Ohio, Iowa, and Florida are out of reach, and states like North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, and Nevada aren’t firmly in the win column, the map tilts conservative. The reality is that further erosion could take Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin out of the Democratic column for good. Even more succinctly, while half the country is going to live in like 8 states that will be more diverse, the other 42 states are going to be decidedly white. The Democratic Party’s decline with white voters largely has stabilized for a quarter century though, and Kamala Harris did better with white guys than one might have guessed. I’m not sure what in our modern history suggests that we need to nominate Neo Nazis, crooked “every” men, and people who go on conspiracy podcasts in order to win? We got more votes than anyone in history in 2020 by running a moderate guy who had solid appeal to Black voters and didn’t seem like an extremist nut to white and rural voters. We’re risking our strongest bases of support- Black voters, Jewish voters, and educated White women to appeal to who exactly? The descendants of people who moved away from the party between 1966 and 1994? The last few Dixiecrats who ran away in 2010? People who came out of nowhere to vote for Donald Trump in 2016, 2020, or 2024? Do we really think going on Hasan Piker’s ridiculous podcast is going to make us look normal? Didn’t we learn our lesson from thinking normal people listened to Charlamagne? What in the last 60 years of the party makes us think we can get votes from people who don’t vote for us by being more like a New York City Mayor who won’t oppose saying “Globalize the Intifada?” Sure, I do think Democrats overreached with trying to normalize and formalize DEI, #MeToo, and other social movements that the country wasn’t ready for at this time, but are we now going to embrace terrorists and Nazis to chase mythical votes we haven’t received in decades? It should be worth noting that the only group to support eversuccessful Presidential candidate in recent times on the Democratic side are Black voters. Jewish voters are the only other group to support every Democratic Presidential nominee in recent history. Wouldn’t any modest gains made with guys with Nazi tattoos chopping wood in the rural South be offset with the losses we’d take with our base? Seems so to me.

Anyone to study recent American political history understands that the ideological left Democratic Party broke up as the electorate included more and more women, and Civil Rights finally let Black voters vote. Race and gender simply trump ideology in the American electorate. One that wants an ideological party could put in the time to organize and build support for their positions, maybe even try to pass some legislation that moves the ball forward towards their position. Instead, some think the right idea is to wholesale try to turn 60 years of political movement around by embracing lunatics and bigots. It’s a horrible strategy. It’s tone deaf. It’s historically ignorant. It’s a path to losing the 2028 Presidential election. Tread wisely, friends.

Petition Challenge Arrives

/ Rich Wilkins / 1 Comment

Petitions to be placed on the ballot for the May Primary are all done, so in theory we know who will be on the ballot now. Of course, members of your own party can challenge your petitions, either by stating they have a fatal defect, that you don’t have enough valid signatures, or that you are not actually eligible. There’s a lot more legalese than that, but none of you are here to read that. You want to know who is getting challenged. So I’ll tell you about what I know.

Taiba Sultana’s petitions to challenge State Senator Lisa Boscola in Senate District 18’s Democratic Primary are being challenged. Sultana has a rough history with petitions. Two years ago her petitions to challenge State Rep. Bob Freeman made waves when Boscola’s name was actually on her petition as a signer, but at an address that doesn’t exist and in a town which Senator Boscola doesn’t live in. Senator Boscola accused her of forging the signature, which was on a petition circulated by now-County Councilman Nadeem Qayyum, Sultana’s husband. Freeman decided not to challenge her petition, and he ended up beating her by over 50% of the vote, winning every municipality in the district. Supporters of Senator Boscola are apparently not giving Sultana the opportunity to get crushed this time, and they are challenging her petitions. I’m not sure what the challenge is this time, but we’ll hear soon.

The other challenge I heard about was quite interesting. Someone is apparently considering a challenge to Carol Obando-Derstine’s nominating petitions for the 7th Congressional District. I was sent the petition above (I screen shotted part of it) as an example of allegedly forged signatures in her filing. The person sending it also says there are other issues, and someone thinks they can drive her under 1,000 valid signatures with their collective challenges. I was told by a source closer to Carol that she filed over 1,800 signatures and they would be shocked if it’s an issue. I won’t post who circulated this petition, but they do work in government. If I didn’t know better, I’d think some of the Harrisburg boys who are pushing Crooksy want to send this woman a message about who she supports. Then again, Crosswell would also benefit from being the only Lehigh County candidate in the race. Hell, if we’re honest, all three guys would benefit at least a little if she was driven off the ballot. They better really have the goods though, challenging and failing would look bad to insiders (like that matters to any normal people though). You can be the judge of at least the sheet above, but it definitely looks like the same handwriting to me. One sheet wouldn’t be enough to win the challenge though.

We’ll know by 5pm tonight. I’m sure there’ll be more.

The New Democratic Establishment’s Loser Values

/ Rich Wilkins / 1 Comment

Two things happened yesterday that are only sort of unrelated. Senator Martin Heinrich of New Mexico endorsed modern Nazi sympathizer Graham Platner for the Senate race in Maine. Look folks, on this, I’m not “vote blue no matter who.” This guy has Nazi tattoos, he is pals with Nazis, was a Blackwater mercenary, and posts horribly racist shit on the internet. All of his behavior screams Nazi. If we nominate this piece of human sludge, we should lose the race. Heinrich isn’t alone though. Ruben Gallego recently endorsed him too. Ro Khanna has also endorsed Mr. Nazi Tattoo. Not to be left behind, Bernard Sanders had to be involved as an endorser. In case you’re wondering, all of them but Heinrich (to my knowledge) have endorsed Bob “Crooksy” Brooks, a man who stiffed his mother-in-law for $55k, said President Obama “sucks,” stated his hate for Colin Kaepernick very loudly, and spouts off fanatical stuff about guns and religion. Kind of fits, right? We went through this before with John Fetterman, and people ignored the obvious. Fetterman was a degenerate nut-job, and now we’re going to arm an army of him in Congress, if these bros have their ways.

Now, as I said, there was a second thing that happened. Last night Muhammad “Sef” Casim lost a special election for the Prince William County Supervisor race in the Woodbridge, VA district. Dems had held it for 38 years. “Sef” was a problematic candidate, not unlike Platner. He says really racist shit. Casim was also an outright antisemite. Republican Jeannie LeCroix beat him by 6% and almost 20% wrote in another candidate. After winning a primary running as a far left nut, Casim blew a lay up race, failing to even reach 40%. Much like Mamdani, the general electorate was less impressed with his left-wing populism and looked for literally any other option but to vote for this bigot. Northern Virginia, much like New York City, is very Democratic. Once you got beyond the primary, most Democrats don’t want this kind of vile shit.

The “new” Democratic Establishment, built of consultants and operatives from the Bernie and Fetterman world, are building a Democratic establishment that will cement MAGA control of the White House for years to come. It’s a road to nowhere. Here in PA-7 they are promising jobs to young candidates and electeds who endorse them, and painting a rosy picture of a future that looks very much like a Bernie rally. It’s fools gold. Bernie Sanders lost cleanly twice when he ran for President, because he couldn’t build a coalition of people who were bought in enough to vote for him against the “boring old” establishment figures that he and Mr. Nazi Tattoo want to create. Regular, real people who live in this country don’t want this shit. Most people want to be normal. Our party does not want a revolution:

Analysis of the data suggests the Democratic coalition can be broken into three distinct blocs. Moderates—voters who identify as moderate Democrats, independents, or anti-Trump Republicans—account for 47 percent. They are demographically diverse, older on average, and the most electorally flexible—only 45 percent say they have never voted for a non-Democratic presidential candidate.

A second bloc, Progressive Liberals, make up 37 percent. They are reliably left-leaning, whiter than the other blocs, and disproportionately concentrated in suburbs and on the West Coast.

Last comes the Woke Fringe—voters who identify as democratic socialists or Communist. These add up to just 11 percent of the coalition. The Woke Fringe is the youngest of the three groups, the most conspiratorial, the most likely to report poor mental health, and—not incidentally—the most likely to spend excessive sums of time on the internet. Notably, previous quantitative and qualitative Manhattan Institute research on the GOP coalition shows that the youngest and most hyper-online Republicans also skew hardest toward ideological wackiness.

So why the hell are we listening to a bunch of lefty white guys who want to expel Jews and welcome Chairman Mao to the party? It’s somewhat the fault of donors. It’s somewhat the fault of podcasters. It’s largely the fault of “the bubble children” in DC that manage the interest groups in between their stays at the party committees. What they are building is a party that isn’t likable. They are building a party that is weird, fake, and harmful in the eyes of most Americans. They’re building a freak show. We need to reject them. A fake “working class hero” movement lead by an 80 something year old that used his campaigns to make money isn’t useful.

The Fields are Set in the Lehigh Valley

/ Rich Wilkins / 1 Comment

Well, petitions are over. We know who is on the ballot now here in the Lehigh Valley. Let’s take a look at what our options are on the ballot.

Governor and Lt. Governor

So, there’s no surprises at all. No gadfly candidates who made the ballot, no freak shows, no party dissidents. Governor Josh Shapiro is the only Democrat for Governor. State Treasurer Stacy Garrity is the only Republican. Lt. Governor Austin Davis is the only Democrat in that race too. Republicans Jason Richey (Allegheny) and John Ventre (Westmoreland) are the only Republicans. I’m voting for Shapiro and Davis. Simply put, Garrity and whichever of these folks wins are simply too dangerous to essential public needs, such as health care, public education, infrastructure, and the environment. I have my disagreements with the Governor’s judgment on several issues, but this isn’t the time to deal with those.

Congress- PA-7

Only four of the gaggle of announced candidates made it to the starting line. Bob “Crooksy” Brooks is a total fraud. Carol Obando-Derstine seems like a solid person and Democrat, I’d have nothing bad to say if she got nominated in this race, and I’d vote for her in November. Ryan Crosswell is a Republican and a union buster. I’m voting for Lamont McClure. I will keep this as simple as can be. In eight years as County Executive he expanded farmland preservation, kept Gracedale County owned, didn’t cut services to the public, and didn’t raise taxes. In the aftermath of the “Big Beautiful Bullshit Bill,” we’re going to need members in Congress who understand the way cuts to Medicaid, the ACA, infrastructure spending, and all the other government programs that were cut are actually hitting us locally. Additionally, he’s been an advocate against new warehouse proliferation and for passenger rail from Amtrak. I think we have two pretty good candidates, I am just going to vote for him.

State Senate- 14th

Only two folks filed. Democratic incumbent Nick Miller and Republican Omy Juriel Maldonado. Nick has done a good job in his first term. While not making waves, he’s made his way into Democratic leadership and is delivering for the people of Valley. I don’t have a vote in this district, but I’m for Nick Miller.

16th

So only three of the four Democrats made it to the starting line. Richlandtown Mayor Wayne Codner, Pennridge School Board Member Bradley D. Merkl-Gump, and Lehigh County Controller Mark Pinsley. The Bucks Dems tried to herd everyone into backing Merkl-Gump, whom I’m guessing will be the best fundraiser in this race. Pinsley has the name recognition here from losing in 2022 by 9%. Codner is relatively unknown, but his profile as a veteran, a Black man, and the Mayor of a very red town is pretty impressive. I think if we’re truly trying to win this seat and nominate an authentic candidate, Codner is the strongest to me. But I think we should let them all campaign a bit and see.

18th

Senator Lisa Boscola has a challenger from both sides. My guess is that will mean she did something right to Lehigh Valley voters. Apparently losing for the State House by over 50% to Bob Freeman has not soured Taiba Sultana on the idea of this quixotic primary on the Democratic side. I don’t know who tells her this is a good idea, but she’s going to lose her home precinct in Easton in this race. If Taiba wanted to run a primary where she could get 20% and be competitive while ranting about ICE and genocide, she should have run for Congress. This is a sideshow. Republican Scott Janney is their sacrificial lamb this time, and he’ll do way better than Taiba. But he’ll lose by at least 15%. I’m for Lisa Boscola. Again, she’s delivering the things our local governments are asking for. You may wish she was more of a leftist, but be honest with yourself, then she’d lose. That’s not who lives in Northampton County.

State House- 137th

Since I live in this seat, I’ll start here. County Councilman Jeff Warren is challenging Joe Emrick. I’m voting for Jeff Warren. Simply put, Joe Emrick is not there for our schools, our seniors, our infrastructure, or our environment. He’s a no vote on legalizing recreational cannabis, thereby denying our students and seniors the tax dollars that are going across the river into Phillipsburg, NJ, from our customers. He’s an ex-teacher who really doesn’t want to solve property taxes or fund the schools, so the worst of all worlds. Simply put, he’s a road block.

131st

Milou who? Ryan’s Mommy is back, running to be the self-proclaimed most Conservative state elected in the Lehigh Valley. Meriam Sabih is running against her. Look, by default I’m for Meriam Sabih. With that said, I thought her last campaign was very energetic, practical, and impressive. She ran as a serious person with thought out policies, and that makes her better than Milou Mackenzie.

135th

Steve Samuelson is being challenged by Republican Joseph Poplawski. I know nothing about this guy, other than he will lose in the general. I’m with Steve Samuelson.

136th

Bob Freeman is being challenged by… oh, it doesn’t matter what his name is. Bob is the best legislator in our region, and at least to me, in the state. In 40 years the guy has never, not once, embarrassed us in his service. I’m with Bob Freeman.

138th

Up in the northern tier of Northampton County, Jared Bitting is challenging Ann Flood for this seat. This is really tough terrain for a Democrat, but I’m for Jared Bitting.

183rd

Zack Mako is being opposed by Deirdre Kamber. I don’t know her at all. Friends of mine say very nice things about her. I’m for her I think, but let’s see her campaign.

132nd

Mike Schlossberg is being opposed by Republican Caren Lowrey. I know nothing about her. Mike might make some poor endorsements, but Mike is a very, very good state representative. For every reason I stated that we need to re-elect the Governor, Senator Miller, and Senator Boscola, and every reason I stated we need to remove Joe Emrick, we need Mike re-elected to the House. As Whip, he is one of those ultimately responsible for moving progress forward.

134th

Pete Schweyer is being opposed by Miriam Alicia Maldonado. Again, I know nothing about her. Basically everything I wrote about Mike basically applies here too.

187th

After a two year break, Gary Day is back roaming the halls of the State Capitol aimlessly. Bless his heart. He’s being challenged by two Democrats, Rachel Guynn-Cuevas and Geoffrey Whitcomb. I know nothing about either right now.

22nd

Fresh off of her win, Ana Tiburcio is being challenged from all sides. Ce-Ce Gerlach is challenging her on the Democratic side. Bob Smith must not have lost bad enough in the special election, because him and his 200 and some votes (I think?) are back. I’m for Ce-Ce Gerlach. Look, I watched that debate. I may think Ce-Ce is further to the left than I like, but she knows the issues and she’s going to vote on the right side because those are her values, not because other legislators tell her what to think on the issue. Allentown can do better, and it should.

NOTE- I somehow left Jeanne McNeill out of here. Feel free to laugh at me, I’ve literally done work for her. She’s a great Representative and deserves another term.

Patriotism, Hockey, and Democrats

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

I have to admit something that will definitely get me canceled in Democratic circles- I find Toby Keith’s “Courtesy of the Red, White and Blue.” In fact, I find gratuitous acts of patriotism to be fun. I was celebrating outside of the White House the night Osama Bin Laden was killed with thousands of other young Americans. I was cheering for both Alysa Liu and the Men’s Hockey team at the Olympics. In fact, I generally support America on almost everything. This does not mean I don’t know or care about Jim Crow, the Trail of Tears, Japanese Internment camps, slavery, or any of the other atrocities committed by our nation. It does not mean I wasn’t a protestor during the Iraq War. Far from. In fact, I see no problem with blasting “Free Bird” and acknowledging our problems, even in the era of Trump.

In our currently “black and white” era of politics, there are folks who think picking sides is an absolute. You’re either team AOC or team Vance, period. This extends to the point of an Olympic hockey team, because a.) a majority of them are either conservative or politically disengaged, and b.) they’re white men. Yeah, Kash Patel is a weirdo, and yeah, Trump’s joke about the women’s team was piss poor, but if that’s what you took away from the Olympic Hockey Final, or if you were arguing about Alyssa Liu’s (liberal) politics against people that wanted to re-cast her as simply an anti-communist crusader (she’s both liberal and a tremendous symbol against communism), you kind of missed the point. We don’t watch sports to get political commentary. I think many of us are well aware that the athletes playing on the television have political views like the rest of us, they’re people. You can’t possibly watch what’s going on with ICE in America and *not* have an opinion on it of some kind. The point is that yes, it actually doesn’t matter when I’m watching a hockey game. People are not wired to functionally live in a constant war with their fellow citizens like this. It’s weird. Most people think it’s weird. Trying to force it turns off way, way more people than it attracts.

I get that many people on the American left-of-center side are worried that this will be our final President and that our current state is permanent, and so they think the only choice is to fight on every battlefield, all day, everyday. I do not share that sentiment. I believe Trump will lose the House of Representatives in November and his Presidency will practically end. I do believe we will elect a new President in 2028, regardless of who it is. I don’t think a bunch of hockey players visiting the White House after they win a Gold Medal threatens that. I’m sorry, I think this is a fight and argument that generally makes the left look a lot less appealing to unradicalized normies who actually will decide who that new President is. So I think this was stupid.

Btw, I wrote this in the time it took me to listen to “Free Bird,” “American Girl,” and “American Idiot.” Not bad.

Your World Last Week, 2/24

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Have you dug out of the snow yet? I guess that depends where you are. In a rare snow event, you’re better off in Mt. Pocono after this weekend than you are in Cape May. New Jersey got a blizzard. Here in the Lehigh Valley, the storm underperformed. Go figure.

The Olympics are now over. Pop quiz, let’s see people find Milan and Cortina on a map now. Last week I listed the Gold Medalists through that point, so today let me finish the U.S. Medalists list. Mikaela Shiffrin won Gold in the women’s slalom event. Elana Meyers Taylor won Gold in the women’s monobob bobsled event. In the two-woman bobsled, Lailie Armbruster Humphries and Jasmine Jones won the Bronze. Armbruster Humphries added a Bronze in the women’s monobob event. Ben Ogden and Gus Schumacher won the Silver in the men’s cross-country skiing team sprint. Alyssa Liu won the Gold in the women’s figure skating event. The freestyle skiing mixed aerials team of Connor Curran, Kaila Kuhn, and Christopher Lillis won the Gold. Alex Ferreira won the gold in the men’s halfpipe event. Mac Forehand won the Silver in the men’s freestyle big air event. Corrine Stoddard won a Bronze in the 1500m short track skating race. Jake Canter won a Bronze in the men’s snowboard slopestyle event. Jordan Stolz won a Silver in the 1500m men’s speed skating race. The team of Ethan Cepuran, Casey Dawson, Emery Lehman, Conor McDermott-Mostowy, and Jordan Stolz won Silver in the men’s team pursuit speed skating race. Mia Manganello won a Bronze in the women’s mass start race in speed skating. Oh, and of course the women and men’s hockey teams won Gold, too. Free Bird, bitches. The complete list is here.

So tonight is the President’s State of the Union address. I will not be watching, antique road show/random NBA game/The Weather Channel is on then. We will probably bomb Iran within days, as our government is saying they could have the capability of building a nuclear bomb within a week. The Jalisco New Generation Cartel is causing chaos and panic in the Mexican state of Jalisco after their leader “El Mencho” was killed apparently by the Mexican government, but American officials tried to take some sort of credit as well and so they’re threatening Americans there. France is telling Jared Kushner’s daddy to stay in his playpen, taking away the Ambassador to France’s ability to talk directly to government ministers on the behalf of the United States after he stiffed them on a meeting. Shocking that Charles Kushner isn’t a good Ambassador, since he got the job for being rich and related to the President. Texas Congressman Tony Gonzales is making a strong play for biggest piece of shit in the world this week, as we get more and more details of his affair with a staffer that worked for him that lead her to light herself literally on fire to commit suicide. One thing’s for sure, Washington, D.C. is always there to make us proud of our nation. Oh, and the DNC thinks Kamala Harris lost for not siding with Hamas. This message seems like a sure way to lose elections for the rest of our lives. In better news, Baseball is back. Not like real, good baseball, but there are players being paid to play in Florida and Arizona right now for real teams. The World Baseball Classic is coming up too. I can’t wait until the 2028 Summer Olympics, when we get a baseball tournament, in-season, with the best of the United States, Japan, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Canada, Venezuela, South Korea, Australia, Puerto Rico, and Mexico, to name a few. Duke beat Michigan, Arizona beat Houston, and UCONN dog walked Villanova in college basketball. The NHL is getting ready to come back from it’s break. Tyler Reddick won the second NASCAR race of the year, to go along with his Daytona win, and Michael Jordan again gave the first interview after his driver won. Back to uplifting news, Savannah Guthrie’s mom is still missing, but FBI Director Kash Patel got to make his wish and celebrate with the U.S. Hockey team at the Olympics. Oh, and the President’s tariffs were thrown out by the Supreme Court, so he just made up a new legal argument for them and raised them. The government also has no real plan to return the money.

The world is awesome. The World is fine. Have a great week.

Alpha Dog of the Week, 10/25

/ Rich Wilkins / 1 Comment

One of my favorite things the internet does well is bully Ben Shapiro. The jokes about him being unable to make his wife wet are fucking gold. Look, you might say bullying is bad, but I don’t always agree. When you are trying to make some contrarian, bullshit argument for why some 70 year old grandma should have to go get a job, I’m fine with literally everyone bullying you into the ether. Ben Shapiro is another bullshit right-wing millennial white boy that is very impressed with himself. I like that he gets picked on by the internet as a group.

9/20 alpha dog. 9/27 alpha dog. 10/4 alpha dog. 10/11 alpha dog.

If You Don’t Like the County Executive, Just Get Rid of the Job?

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

I got a call from a little birdy yesterday (funniest description ever) about local political goings on. There was a lot of news, on all kinds of different topics. One piece of news though was hilarious to me.

A certain member of County Council, running for re-election in 2025, apparently has told people *they* (no I’m not giving it away) plan to introduce legislation at Northampton County Council tonight to scrap the County Executive and return to the three person commissioner system that most counties use.

Say what?

Northampton County passed a Home Rule Charter that basically serves as it’s constitution. That charter created an elected Executive to run the day-to-day goings of the government. Many other counties don’t have that, and are sort of ran by a part-time Commissioner board, but are mostly run by unelected bureaucrats and people who “go along to get along” running departments. They raise taxes whenever they feel like it, and tend to do what is most popular in the government center. They don’t give a shit about public sentiment and they only answer to a bunch of commissioners who don’t really know how the government runs, because they’re not there. It’s an awful system and it isn’t responsive to the public.

I’m not going to name this council person, I like them personally and I hope that posting this ahead of time discourages their poor behavior. They are not doing this because they believe it’s a good idea, they’re doing this because they do not like the current County Executive and they do not like who they think will be the next County Executive. This is petty politics at it’s worst, the kind of mean girl shit that will make life worse for the public. If you don’t like Lamont McClure, Phil Armstrong, Tara Zrinski, or any other person who tries to be County Executive, you run a campaign against them. If people elect a County Executive twice or more, you should just tip your cap- they do represent what the public wants. Running around talking about being a check on elected power, when the voters can kick out that official if they want, is simply living in denial. Deciding you’re going to get rid of the office because you think the voters are going to vote for a third time the opposite of what you think they should is anti-democracy behavior of the worst type. I know this kind of bullshit behavior is par for the course in MAGA right now, but hopefully we’re not going to see this individual try this crap with the county government.

We will see tonight.

Why Trump Was Able to Get His Ceasefire in Gaza

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Jimmy Carter made history with a deal between Egypt and Israel, but still couldn’t forge a lasting peace in the region. Bill Clinton got peace accords signed between the Palestinian Authority and Israel, and then very nearly got a permanent agreement creating two states, but he came up narrowly short thanks to Arafat. Barack Obama got a nuclear deal with Iran and removed many of the standing issues between the United States and the Middle Eastern nations, but still couldn’t build a lasting peace. Joe Biden ended our long occupation of Afghanistan and tried very hard to hammer down a lasting agreement in Gaza, but he couldn’t get it done. Of course the Bush Presidencies were bogged down in the region and did not leave popular in the region, and Reagan was illegally playing both sides of a brutal war in the region, so he’s not loved either.

To hear Donald Trump tell it, he has been more successful in the region. He negotiated the Abraham Accords, and has convinced multiple Arab states to recognize Israel. Now he has negotiated a new ceasefire in Gaza. This is driving some people nuts, as Trump and his followers are saying he should win the Nobel Peace Prize now. While that is ridiculously silly, Trump has had some real successes in the region. You have to be a total partisan hack to say otherwise. But why is this man succeeding there?

The long and short of why Arab states are willing to deal with Trump in ways they did not with previous U.S. Presidents is simple- they agree with him and share common goals. Past Republican Administrations had neoconservative leanings and wanted to spread democracy across the region, a goal Trump could not give two shits about, and a goal that most Middle Eastern leaders reject. Past Democratic Administrations very much wanted a two state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian question, and from 1948 to today, no Middle Eastern country has really wanted that to happen, especially not the countries closest to the West Bank and Gaza, while Trump has shown no real inkling of wanting a Palestinian nation to exist on any sort of terms that Palestinians would want. Past Democratic nations have also wanted to take up issues of human rights abuses in the region, which Trump is completely disinterested in. Trump is interested in making money with some of the rulers in the Middle East though, something they are very interested in with him as well. In short, his interests basically align with most of their’s, so they’re happy to deal with him.

There is of course the Israeli side of this, and again, I think this comes down to simple interests. Past U.S. Administrations have wanted a two state solution, and governments in Israel after Oslo I have either opposed that outright or been wary of it. While I think Netanyahu has tested Trump’s patience a bit by not just giving him the headlines he wants, in the end neither has any burning interest in a two-state solution. Netanyahu may prefer a “Hot War” to a “Cold War” with Hamas, but even in a ceasefire state he can continue to make the case for his right-wing positions on the Palestinians as long as Hamas is there. Trump is fine with Hamas being there, as long as they sign his ceasefire to make him look good. Neither Hamas or Bibi Netanyahu have any real interest in ending this state of war. Trump has no interest in making them do so. They’re all pretty happy with it.

Now, I don’t think you really need to worry about Trump winning a Nobel Peace Prize, if you really care all that much about it (I don’t). The prize is based in Oslo, Norway, and the politics behind who wins it are largely driven by Western European politics. On the issue of Gaza, Western Europe is basically moving the goalposts so far left on Trump now that they will not have to really consider giving it to him. Governments across Western Europe are going for full-blown Palestinian statehood, which is fairly popular with their publics, which is frankly a position that Carter, Clinton, Obama, and Biden all could not have met realistically in a real political sense. So Trump’s position on a ceasefire will still look fairly reactionary to most of Western Europe, and his reluctance to full embrace Ukraine in their war with Russia will disqualify him across the continent. In short, they’re not going to give him the prize, no matter what.

With that all said, we shouldn’t all dismiss this ceasefire agreement, or at least the desire for one, out of hand. Israel had every right to respond after October 7th, but both their government and Hamas have drug this conflict out well beyond what was necessary or useful. The return of any remaining Israeli hostages and a halt to the violence that is killing thousands of Palestinians each month is a good thing for both groups of people. While I think anything short of the eradication of Hamas is a recipe for future disaster, that doesn’t make this deal a bad short-term thing.

Some things are bigger than our feelings about Trump, and even a broken clock is right twice a day.

The Dumbest Campaign Interview Ever, and Generally Bad Democratic Candidates Right Now

/ Rich Wilkins / 2 Comments

I was never a fan of Katie Porter and her white board. Or her reading a book during the State of the Union. I was never impressed when she just yelled at witnesses during House Oversight Committee Hearings (I’m not impressed with the existence of the Oversight Committee, it serves zero purpose for the general public and writes no laws.). She was just not my cup of tea. She generally votes right and was fine as a Congresswoman, but I was disappointed when she gave up her swing seat to run a quixotic campaign against Adam Schiff for Senate, when literally the entire Democratic Party wanted him. I’m not much of a fan.

The shame when a party wins a wave election is that it drags in some good and some bad candidates. You have people that win in tough swing districts because they’re good candidates, and others who do so because they’re lucky. Then you also have people drug in through the tide who win very safe seats that have no broader appeal to the national electorate, but the Squad is a discussion for another day. The shame of course is when the good candidates in tough districts eventually lose their seats, a lot of activists and donors think *those* are the weaker candidates, and people like Porter are somehow a real future star. That’s how we end up where we are.

So in Porter’s case, the question was absolutely stupid. Why would she need the 40% of voters in California who voted for the losing candidate to help her win? Why not just win over most of the 60% who voted for the winning candidate? If you want to ask if she has any intentions of being bipartisan, go ahead, but don’t act like you can’t do math. Porter’s reaction was also amateur hour. Just give the standard bullshit “I’m working for every vote,” or go with the partisan “I’m concentrating on the Californians who share our vision for the future,” or some shit. Why storm out, it’s not like the reporter called you an asshole? This interview was below the public discourse in 2025, and well, that’s a major achievement.

People like Porter just don’t go away though. A few candidates meet an archetype that is popular with an activist crowd, and it’s a disease that takes a long time to get out of your blood. Amy McGrath is begging you to light your money on fire for her again in Kentucky, where she wants to lose for Mitch McConnell’s seat and raise $100 million again. It’s honestly not going to happen, just go fail up and run for President at this point. Mikie Sherrill might pull out the win in New Jersey, but that’s only because it’s New Jersey. Her campaign of a noun+a verb+fighter pilot+Trump+an inaudible sound is about as inspiring as week old bread, which is just fine as long as she wins, but does give people watching a few skipped heart beats that aren’t necessary. Then there’s James Talarico in Texas and Graham Platner in Maine, both running for Senate seats they are grossly unqualified for on the genius notion that the Democratic Party sucks, and if only we nominate the “working class white guy savior,” we’ll be fine. All of these rising stars, created by a combination of insular DC Democratic operatives, rich out of touch donors, and activists. Could it be that we lose elections because we nominate bad candidates? Could it be that we nominate bad candidates because we look for them in all the wrong places?

I don’t know, what the hell do I know?