Todays’ the day that Lehigh County Democrats will pick their candidate to replace incoming Lehigh County Executive Josh Siegel in his Allentown and Salisbury based 22nd District seat. The candidates are lining up:
Four Democratic candidates — precinct committee person Erlinda Aguilar; Allentown City Councilwoman Ce-Ce Gerlach; Julian Guridy, an aide to state Sen. Nick Miller; and Lewis Shupe, who attempted to launch a congressional campaign in 2024 — submitted their names for consideration ahead of Thursday’s 5 p.m. deadline, Lehigh County Democratic Committee Chair Lori McFarland said.
A fifth, Douglas Kunkle, withdrew his nomination.
Kunkle apparently withdrew out of frustration with the process. Gerlach has also complained about who is and who isn’t an eligible voter, from what I’ve been told. Many expected that. The Allentown City Democrats did fold several years ago, leading to some questions about who is and who isn’t still on the committee, though it actually appears that this isn’t as real of a question as some believed. Jessica Ortiz, who had a Facebook page to run for this seat, did not apply for the Democratic nomination either.
If you put a gun to my head and asked me who is going to win today, well you wouldn’t need the gun, because I would tell you that it will be Julian Guridy. Guridy is publicly supported by Mayor Tuerk, Siegel, and Allentown’s other two Representatives, Mike Schlossberg and Pete Schweyer, and a functioning adult would guess State Senator Nick Miller, Guridy’s current boss. Does anyone think the committee is going to go out of it’s way to embarrass literally every significant elected official at the state level from Allentown? Of course not.
Gerlach is formidable (I don’t know the other two candidates very well, so I can’t comment there) and this is not the end. She has support from most of the more leftist groups in Allentown, and this committee selection is only binding for the February 24th Special Election. She is still more than able to run in the May Primary, and has a base of support for that race.
With all of that said, Guridy is going to win today.
We just passed the 34th anniversary of one of the greatest days in the post-World War II world- the death of the Soviet Union. A bunch of hyper-ambitious morons decided to create a government on a theory and a myth, and ended up creating a failed shit hole of a state, an authoritarian, corrupt, awful nightmare of a state. As with most Socialist nations in our world, it turned into a cult of personality towards it’s leaders, complete with rampant corruption and “black markets,” poverty, and all kinds of human rights violations. The world is better off for not having the Soviet Union around today, whatever you think of the governments in the republics that replaced it.
Sure, there are Russians and others from the old empire that miss the power they had at that time. Even so, they’re not desperate to return to the system of government they had. Meanwhile, socialism has failed pretty much everywhere else- North Korea is a hellhole, China basically abandoned the system, Cuba is on the verge of collapse, Venezuela has literal pirates off their coast, Yugoslavia collapsed into a state of war and ethnic cleansing, the rest of Eastern Europe threw out their dictators, East Germany had to build a wall to keep people from leaving, and Bolivia’s economy is now in ruins. Socialism just doesn’t work anywhere. Even countries that didn’t end up in violent chaos ended up turning away from the failed system.
So why do progressives in the Western World, who are actually just old European Social Democrats (a very generous government “safety net.”) want to brand themselves as far leftist nuts? To be clear, Bernie Sanders, AOC, Graham Platner, Bob Brooks, and others are not calling for the government to “seize the means of production.” They don’t want a “First National Energy Company,” and even their “Medicare for All” is just covering everyone under Medicare- which is generally administered by private companies. Why are they associating the policies of a full social safety net with a failed economic and political system that allowed Joseph Stalin to kill millions and millions of his own people? How is this good politics?
Americans are generally smart enough to know that these people are idiots, which is why they don’t win elections outside of comfortably Democratic jurisdictions where primaries decide the winners. It’s one thing to want a generous Social Security program or a higher minimum wage, it’s another altogether to brand yourself a part of a murderous, failed political system. Somehow, a lot of Democrats want to turn to these people to turn their 2024 fate around. It’s a foolish strategy.
I don’t like remembering December of 2016, but I think we all remember the SNL skit where Hillary Clinton showed up at the homes of electors and tried to convince them to vote against Donald Trump in the electoral college. One could certainly laugh at the skit, and one could even empathize with the shock many people felt after Trump won- I mean, he got less votes and won the election. If you go back and watch the speech, even Trump looked shocked when he came out to declare victory. The whole thing was surreal at the time. It was still absolutely batshit that people though the electoral college would be faithless enough to defeat the candidate they pledged their support to. It was a super long shot in 2000 when Al Gore needed less than five, and that wasn’t happening in 2016.
The problem with this is that it never ended though. People thought the Russian interference in our elections and every other scandal “would be the end of him.” When he was defeated in 2020, they wanted him punished for the very real wrongs he had done. Even now, they hope there is some early way out. The truth is that there never was. The even more real truth is that for most Americans, it was never really a priority.
I came across a tweet that angered me quite a bit. It’s tone deaf. There are truly a class of people in Washington who think that the top concern of most people is imprisoning Trump. You can read it here:
The more I think about it, the more I think Joe Biden was a uniquely bad president at the particular moment in time he was president. Not because of what he did, but because of all the things he didn't do. Holding Trump accountable for his crimes was job Number One.
Basically the thought here is that Joe Biden, after receiving 81 million votes, should have made it his priority to prosecute and jail the guy he just defeated. Not stop Covid, revitalize the economy, expand health care, invest in green energy, or really any of the stuff he told people he would do. Never mind that the crimes committed in New York and Georgia were state crimes, never mind the need to investigate whatever involvement Trump actually had in January 6th, never mind that the Florida case hadn’t even happened yet, never mind that while Mueller found that Russia did interfere in the 2016 Election, there was no two party conspiracy, and never mind that neither impeachment ended in a conviction- lock him up. Look, do I think he did a lot of this stuff? Yes, and he was convicted in a state of doing it. The idea that someone was going to lock him in Leavenworth and we’d never hear from him again was nuts though. That locking the guy in Leavenworth, or Minersville, or whatever other crazy place you wanted him locked up in, should have been the top priority, well that’s just insane.
Yes, I’d love it if Donald Trump was gone from American politics. The reality though is that he’ll be gone when he’s done being President- which the Constitution clearly says will be January 20th, 2029, but don’t get too comfortable with this Supreme Court. In all seriousness, Trump and Trumpism will probably only be gone when the American people are ready to move on to something else. They will. They moved on from Obama, from Clinton, from Bush, from Reagan, from Nixon, from Eisenhower, from Truman, and even eventually from FDR’s politics (he of course was dead).
I stopped watching cable news a few years back, almost entirely, and it’s the best thing I ever did. I built a nice following on Twitter and other social media a few years back for my political opinions, but the truth is that I think that world is too segregated from normal society now. People only talk to people like them, then think the world is like them. Most people are much more mad that groceries and gas cost a lot than they are that Trump says mean and insensitive things. No, he’s not being hauled off to The Hague, or impeached and removed, or prosecuted, or any of that. Most people don’t care either. If you tell them this is your priority, they think you’re nuts. This is truly a level of strange that I think has infected most politically active people.
If Bob Brooks is the nominee of the Democratic Party in PA-7, Republicans will swamp him with negative ads defining him as a deadbeat who took money from his mother-in-law and expresses racist beliefs on social media. In any normal time, I’d say that’s disqualifying, but there are a lot of people who would vote for O.J. Simpson if he ran on their party’s ticket right now. Even so, Crooksy is really the only candidate with a strong general election negative to run against, and Republicans are open that they feel most confident they can beat him. They’ll use his personal baggage, his endorsement from Bernie Sanders and other radical left wingers, and even negatives from his career that they have waiting to use. Democrats can’t afford that. Ryan Crosswell is completely unacceptable, but probably can win a general election, if you’re willing to vote for a Republican. There are three Democrats actually from the Lehigh Valley who are Democrats running in this race. We never needed the DCCC to mess this race up with this guy, but sure enough, it happened.
There’s absolutely no evidence that Crooksy brings anything to the table as a candidate, but that’s not what this is about. He raised $300k last quarter? So did like everyone across the river in NJ-7. Any candidate that gets nominated will raise plenty in the general election, and have PACs you’ve never heard of spending on their behalf. All that any of these folks endorsing him cares about is, he is the President of the IAFF’s Pennsylvania organization and the IAFF is really damn good at politics. When the IAFF backs a candidate for President, that candidate usually wins the Democratic nomination, at a minimum. The Governor wants the IAFF to support him in future campaigns, such as for Governor in 2026 and for President in 2028, and let’s be honest, one is more critical right now than the other. It’s very clear this is why this endorsement is happening, and anyone saying otherwise is a liar. Let’s be honest here, otherwise there’s no other reason to step into a competitive primary. Months ago, everyone claimed they would stay out. Plenty of people have appealed to the Governor directly and his insiders, pleading with them to not endorse this guy. None of that mattered, because this isn’t about this race. It’s about 2028.
I know this is an inconvenient truth to publish, but it’s a truth nonetheless. If I was worried about backlash for saying it, I wouldn’t have started in on Crooksy. I knew this from the start and made the decision on my own to write it. I’ve brought the receipts since day one. Frankly, I haven’t wrote the worst stuff, and probably won’t. Unions and elected officials are being pressured from the good ole’ boys club in Harrisburg to fall in line, to crush a primary here. I’m not invested enough in anyone’s success to play that game.
Last week the Senate failed to extend subsidies for people buying health care on the Affordable Care Act Exchanges. This week?
Friday’s proposal from House Republicans includes measures that would allow small businesses to join together to buy insurance plans for their employees and put in place new requirements for pharmacy benefit managers in an effort to lower drug costs.
Starting in 2027, federal payments, known as cost-sharing reduction payments, would aim to lower premiums for some low-income Americans. Health plans that provide abortion coverage would be excluded.
A vote on the package is expected next week, House Speaker Mike Johnson said.
“House Republicans are tackling the real drivers of health care costs to provide affordable care, increase access and choice, and restore integrity to our nation’s health care system for all Americans,” Johnson said in a statement.
Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries blasted the proposal Saturday.
“Mike Johnson just released a toxic Republican Healthcare plan that hurts everyday Americans,” Jeffries wrote on X. “It fails to extend the ACA tax credits that expire this month. And is a deeply unserious proposal.”
This is a joke. Sure, let employers buy together, but what does that do for people who are buying their own health insurance? The answer is nothing. For people like me, who buy their coverage at full price, this will mean not only do I get hit with higher 2026 premiums, but when millions drop their coverage in 2026, my premiums will skyrocket again in 2027. Health care costs the least when the most number of people are able to pay for their care, or are insured. House Republicans actively are plotting to harm that. Why? Some sort of stubborn insistence on free markets? I doubt it. They simply don’t want the government to provide anything, so they can cut taxes more for wealthy people. At this point, it’s clear their goal is no income taxes at all.
This did not have to happen. The decision by Chuck Schumer to send Tim Kaine, Dick Durbin, John Fetterman, Jeanne Shaheen, Maggie Hassan, Angus King, Catherine Cortez Masto, and Jackie Rosen over to vote to end the government shutdown without even this small concession from Republicans will essentially do massive damage to the American health care system. If Republicans were going to re-open the government without these subsidies, Democrats should have forced them to end the filibuster to do it. Let them have the blood on their hands. Instead Democrats gave them a way out of their own mess, and we all know it was approved by their leader, because they gave just enough votes to get it done. Senate Democrats basically own this mess as much as Trump’s GOP, which is utterly embarrassing for a party whose crowning achievement of the last 20 years was a health care system that insured over 20 million people who were previously uninsured.
We really need to get rid of John Fetterman in 2028, by the way.
It’s a cruel, sick, just world. The only Republican left on the Northampton County Council is Tom Giovanni. After running a cynical campaign of memes and attacks on people not running, he didn’t get to put the County GOP Chair in charge of the courthouse after all. He gets to go back to Council and sit quietly by himself as Tara Zrinski serves as the next County Executive. She worked hard, and she earned it.
The rest of the council may not make Giovanni look so bad though. The new chamber will have 8 Democrats in the 9 seats. It still might not be functional. You see, the 8 Democrats don’t necessarily get along, and might not really vote together. How it looks to break out-
Ken Kraft, Kelly Keegan, Jeff Warren- These three Democrats generally voted together on Council during the current term.
Jason Boulette- He seems pretty normal, has an impressive private sector resume, and doesn’t feel like a bomb thrower.
David Holland- I know he used to work at Gracedale, under the private management company. He ran as a Democrat. Most of the ticket didn’t dislike him. I’m cautiously optimistic.
Lori Vargo Heffner- The current President of Council won a third term. She got the most votes, after finishing third in the primary. She had a block of three Democrats that were not as friendly to the outgoing Executive, and many times voted with the three Republicans. Two of those Republicans and the two other Democrats are gone, and Lori is now on her own. This does not mean you should assume she will lose votes though. She counts to five better than a lot of these folks, regardless of who she brings on to get there. Her history with the incoming Executive is fairly sour too.
Terry Fadem- She basically didn’t engage with the other candidates in this past election and some members think she’s more like Lori than them. Time will tell.
Nadeem Qayyum- Look, I’m not getting into the rabbit hole here, but this is madness. Qayyum apparently told people he’s going to come out as a socialist after he got elected, so he must speak more English than other folks think. I don’t really know him, but if he spends most of the next four years bringing up resolutions for “Medicare for All,” for the county to condemn “genocide in Gaza,” and seeking confrontations with ICE, Democrats are going to lose seats soon.
There’s four ways this can go, as I see it-
The first trio work with two of the three (Boulette, Holland, Fadem) or more, and govern.
Lori Vargo Heffner builds an alliance with Giovanni and Fadem, and picks off Holland or Boulette sometimes, and maybe somehow finds ground with Qayyum?
Boulette, Holland, and Fadem stick together and basically choose which way the council goes.
Democrats just vote 8-1 on everything.
I don’t think counting to 5 will be easy on this council. Trying to do a re-assessment or tax increase will not be easy. Increasing spending will not be easy. Future political campaigns will also become a factor in how council works. I really don’t envy whoever these folks elect President, this will be a tough job.
Donald Trump has destroyed Washington. He has harmed our government permanently and left his successor a mess to clean up. Eventually some alternative is going to have to put functional government back together. That someone is probably the Democratic Party. The Democrats are at a crossroads- do they want to be a leftist party or a center-left/social liberal party. It’s very simple and very straight forward. For me, becoming a party that plays footsie with socialism, embraces isolationism, abandons Civil Rights, embraces guns, opposes the existence of Israel, opposes defending our allies in Europe, throws Obamacare away, and flirts with extremists, whether they have Nazi tattoos or embrace “the Intifada,” is a hard no. Our voters have rejected Bernie Sanders soundly at the ballot box twice. His politics should not be the future of our party, unless we want to never win elections again. Sure, there are some shared, common goals and aims. I embrace Democrats who actually have got things done.
For that reason, I have put together a list of Democrats who need to be defeated in 2026. Some are bad because of ideology, others because they are personally reprehensible, and in a few cases both. I did not put every “progressive” candidate in the country on the list, and that’s for a reason- they are not all bad. I oppose grifters, deadbeats, crackpots, and generally offensive people. Some of them are even moderates. These are generally people I have no interest I supporting in 2026.
Graham Platner- Maine Senate- The Nazi tattoo guy from Maine, I’ve written about him a bit here and here. And more here. This guy is an embarrassment, and yet some folks defend him, because vibes or something. Whether you want to talk about his racism and homophobic slurs on the internet, or his Nazi tattoo, we don’t need to nominate this complete novice, who is paying his wife on his campaign. He’s a nightmare candidate in the making.
Katie Porter- California Governor- I never liked the whole “whiteboard” shtick, and neither did 2024 California Primary voters. That was before she started making a fool of herself in interviews with the press. There are a lot of good candidates for Governor in California. She’s not one of them.
Saikat Chakrabarti- CA-11- Look, just read this. Sure, it was before Nancy Pelosi retired, but nothing about him has changed. He founded the Justice Democrats. He worked for AOC. He wants to remove Hakeem Jeffries as leader. He basically is running against the Democratic Party.
Brad Lander- NY-10- The outgoing New York City Comptroller is primarying Daniel Goldman in NY-10, because getting his ass kicked in the New York City Mayoral primary wasn’t enough for him. He’s attacking Goldman on AIPAC, and raising a lot of money, and… I guess, because he’s not pro-Mamdani? Basically he thinks Lower Manhattan and part of Brooklyn will hate Goldman because he’s not “outspoken” enough? I’m not sure. Goldman was pretty outspoken as the Majority Counsel for Trump’s first impeachment hearings, but Lander would like you to believe him getting arrested at protests is real action. This is maybe the dumbest primary in the country.
Bob “Crooksy” Brooks- PA-7- I’ve wrote about this guy too much. Read this. And this. And this. And this. And this. And this. And this. Look, you can’t trust this guy, and that’s a major hurdle for anyone to get over. He’s another John Fetterman. Right down to the hoodie.
Abdul El-Sayed- MI Senate- All you need to really know about this guy is that he had to apologize for a fundraising email he sent out on October 7th. Yes, he’s that antisemitic. He also had to scrub his social media posts for talking about “Defund the Police” and other looney tunes things. He’s been called the “bro whisperer.” Honestly, how does anybody think this guy can win a general election in Michigan? He’s endorsed by Rashida Tlaib.
Kat Abughazaleh- IL-9- Kat began her race as a barely eligible upstart challenger. Today she’s still running, against a very progressive opponent, and trying to shoot out to his left flank. Her campaign is largely about defunding Israel, but also touches on some other pet projects of leftists. She was indicted recently for a showdown with ICE, which can be commendable, but isn’t really part of the job of a Congressman. She’s also an advocate for the “Green New Deal,” a cool slogan that ended up kind of being slop legislation. She’s just not a serious person. Daniel Biss is endorsed by Elizabeth Warren of all people, and well, he’s a serious person.
Chi Osse- NY-8- I guess I can take him off of this list, but it’s still worth noting the guy said he voted for Bernie Sanders in 2016, but actually didn’t vote. I’ll leave him on, in case someone encourages him to change his mind.
Ryan Crosswell- PA-7- Again, I’ve wrote about this guy too much. Read this. And this. And this. And this. And this. Look, the guy has no ties to the Lehigh Valley, even for work, and will be gone if he loses this race, like Dr. Oz. He’s a lifelong Republican, re-registering as a Republican in several states, and voting in Trump primaries. His story about quitting the DOJ because Trump dropped the Eric Adams case, and being so enraged that he had to run for Congress, is just false. He bought his websites a while before that. This whole campaign is based on fraudulent storytelling. The guy worked at a damn union busting law firm.
Cameron Kasky- NY-12- At all of 25, Kasky knows it all. He’s going to end ICE. And Israel, I guess. As he puts it, “you can’t be a tame politician” right now. He basically wants to go to Capitol Hill to be a protestor. There’s no serious substance here, just a wishlist.
Cori Bush- MO-1- The former Congresswoman was kicked out last cycle in her primary, and just won’t go away. She’s for “defund the police,” but gets caught being hypocritical by the GOP. She slammed other Democrats over Gaza. She spent her time in Congress attacking her fellow Democrats, rather than Republicans. It’s utterly stupid to do that.
Henry Cuellar- TX-28- Trump pardoned him for corruption. His colleagues don’t even like him. By the way, accepting a pardon is an admission of guilt, legally. No thanks.
Last week I met Crooksy in the flesh. I have before, but I know I was not as interested in it then. His campaign manager walked up with him at an event, outside of the actual event, and said to him “this is Rich Wilkins, the guy who writes mean things about you.” You know what, that’s sort of accurate (I write accurate things about him), and it’s actually pretty funny. I said “how do you do,” and moved along. It was cold, but cordial. That’s really all it needed to be. I have said the guy would be inappropriate as a nominee, let alone a Congressman. I stand by that.
Later on in the event, a labor “personality” from a union that backs Crooksy decided to let me know they were unhappy with my coverage of their endorsement. After questioning why I didn’t ask them first if I was right (someone involved told me, why would I?) quite aggressively, I asked a pretty straight forward question- was what I wrote wrong? Their answer- “it didn’t go down the way you wrote it.” I don’t know, if I was going to confront someone like that, I’d probably be able to just say “yes, you were wrong” when asked that. Hey though, I guess sometimes the truth is a problem for some.
Look, I have the least skin in the game of anyone in this whole shenanigan- I don’t work for anyone involved in the race. I’m not going to work for anyone in the race. While I have a preference in the race, there are several candidates I could accept if they won. It has been said to friends of mine that I’m “harming my ability to work” by being so vocal about Crooksy. Huh? I haven’t worked for an actual candidate since before my health scare, almost two years, and I’m not really trying to. I charged my last candidate gas money basically for a couple months of work, because I grew up looking up to them and just wanted to help them through. These people want to blacklist me from a job I don’t want or have? Allegedly I won’t be able to work anymore judicial races, at least at the state level. You wouldn’t believe how badly that has me torn up, I might not be able to go on here (I shouldn’t have to tell you to read that with sarcasm, but yeah.). I didn’t have people attempting to blacklist me from work I don’t do on my 2025 bingo card, but I think this is supposed to scare me or something. Listen, I was almost dead once, you’re going to have to do better than that to scare me now. At least threaten to kneecap my good leg or something, I might blink. I’ve never really socialized with my co-workers much, the ones I am friends with know we’re friends. The rest? Honestly, maybe we’re acquaintances. I find myself more and more at odds with the world a lot of these people are trying to build. My attachment level is pretty low at this point.
These folks are hellbent to make sure people don’t have choices in this primary and don’t hear information about the people they want to thrust onto the voters. They had emissaries up here trying to clear the field and rally support. It didn’t work. They think if voters hear about the candidates, they won’t pick their guy. They’re probably right. What I don’t think they want to realize is, the 9-1-1 calls are coming from inside of their own house. Most of what I write is coming from people they tell it to. You think I found this stuff on my own? I dug up social media posts? I mean, this stuff is fair game, but it was given to me. It came from multiple sources. There’s more of it not yet written. The stuff I knew about the guy is stuff that quite frankly I can’t write, it lacks sources willing to talk about it. At least right now. Look, the total readership of this blog isn’t going to move this primary. I mostly put it out hoping the right reader will see it. I have no grand illusions here. If you want to spend all day mad about it, go right on ahead.
I don’t think I’ll be asking the good ole’ boys and girls out on the Susquehanna for a green light on anything. I mean, God bless, but they just don’t really matter to me. If they did, I’d be writing about them. God knows normal people would cringe if they read that kind of stuff.
Now we find out that he probably had a few girlfriends at a time until fairly recently. Now look, I have friends who have been on both sides of these pages, and this can get touchy- I really don’t care if he ghosted someone, men and women do that all the time today- but that’s not all it looks like here. The NRSC is practically just trolling the guy, because they can. They know that will drive some primary voters towards him, and they’d love to run against him, because the general electorate will hate this guy. It’s a joke that this guy is still running.
The damage is done at this point. There’s a portion of Democrats who won’t vote for this guy, especially once they’re reminded about him, and he can’t overcome that. Unfortunately, thanks to Comrade Bernie, there are movement leftists dug in to only vote for this guy now, so we’ll probably lose either way. His team will get paid though. I guess somebody wins here. Just not America.
You live in the most advanced time in human history. If you’re an American, you live in the wealthiest and militarily strongest country in the world. There are now apps that can look up virtually any fact on the face of the Earth and feed it to you in seconds, all you have to do is interpret them (thanks AI!). There are stoves that can connect to Wifi. Your car will yell at you if don’t buckle up. You can put money into an investment account every month and that money will make you money over the long haul. We can fight wars with drones instead of people. We have cars that run on electric. Solar energy can power your house. We have planes that can fly you around the world safely, and faster than ever before. I mean, we have the internet.
But God dammit, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.
Sure, we’ve sacrificed a lot to achieve the greatness of modernity. Income inequality is higher than at any point in modern history. We pile debt onto you to buy houses, cars, pay for your education, even get married. Your labor is less secure than it was when more of America was in a labor union. Globalizing the market made a shit ton of money for most people, comparable to times when we were more domestic, but it also gutted out “low skill” work and devalued it. Basically we got more comfort and amenities, we made life easier in most ways, but we also traded away any sense of security and protection from ruin. It’s scary. It’s uncomfortable.
However, it is better.
The past really wasn’t that good. Any analytic can tell you that, provided that we even measured these things then. People watched black and white televisions in the 1950’s. Households might have had one car. The internet, personal computer, laptop, Wifi, and social media were completely unheard of, not to mention they didn’t exist. People were poor compared to today:
There probably is some benefit to recognizing that lots of middle-class Americans managed to have good lives and happy childhoods despite growing up with material living standards that would be typical of poverty in the contemporary United States.
That said, nothing is stopping you from dropping out of the workforce to be a full-time domestic worker, eliminating your family’s child care expenses while cooking more economical meals at home. Yes, even with those savings, you would have less money than the average married couple, but you could also choose to live in a smaller-than-average house like the one in the picture. The problem is that you probably don’t want to do that, and your spouse probably doesn’t want you to, either. It’s fine to make the case that the norms around this today are bad and wrong as a matter of values — the Amish show that people certainly can choose to live materially poorer lives if they really want to. But factually speaking, living standards have risen dramatically since the era of that photo, and people who lived like that would be poor today.
In 1950, most homes in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, and West Virginia didn’t have complete plumbing. By 1960, the numbers in some of those states were still chillingly high by contemporary standards, but they’d fallen a lot and every state had full plumbing in the majority of homes. To the extent that nostalgia for that era makes sense, it’s that people who lived through it got to experience extremely rapid improvements in living conditions. More recently, things have continued to get better, but they’ve gotten better more slowly.
Yes, life was simple and good back then, because you didn’t know better. You didn’t know better, and life improved. Today you live in remarkably better conditions. It’s just that ten years from now your life will not naturally be so dramatically better than it is today. You’ll have better technology, more access to data and information, and better services available to you- but we’re not going to make poor people billionaires without inflation, or solve how to beat death, or end everything wrong in our world. We’re just going to keep marginally improving, with an occasional breakthrough that accelerates improvements and alleviates pain. I think it’s perfectly fine to point out how our society’s growth over the last 70 years has had flaws- the loss of union jobs, the rise of climate change, the rise of divorcees and co-parenting, mental health issues and mass shootings rising, and on and on. Those things aren’t great, and yes, both the government and the market need to help fix them. But they are.
The best way I can explain this is straight forward- I had a grandfather who died from a brain tumor in 1972 that today probably would have been completely treatable. He was about the same age I was when I almost died last year. If you reverse our chronological order, I would have been the one dead at 41. So in many ways, my grandfather may have lived a more fulfilling, simpler, and happier life than I do. I almost certainly am living better, and in fact, in a better time.
None of the nostalgia on both the left and right is about technology, housing, or economics though, as much as we would like it to be. If that were the case, we would have broad national and international consensus about reversing course on income distribution and labor protections. We’d build more affordable housing and allow for easier migration, at least within national borders. No one other than the most over-privileged brat young conservatives would actually argue that those in the service economy, or gig economy, or any low skilled job deserves to make crap wages, not receive access to quality health care, and shouldn’t be able to afford housing in their community. We are not pre-disposed to hate our neighbors like that. Especially not on the behalf of some rich person.
So let’s be honest, none of this is about economic nostalgia, it’s about demographic changes and identity.
So since both the tweet above and the writer who wrote about it pinpoint the 1950’s, I think it’s worth noting that this was exactly the right place to start our conversation. Yes, it has been 109 years since the last Presidential Election in the United States where only men could vote, and yes, some conservatives actually outright say they think we should go back to some approximation of that (either just men voting, or one vote per household). In the 1950’s, the lion’s share of women were either not voting, or voting how their husbands told them. We were still a solid decade from meaningful Civil Rights legislation that gave even Black men a right to vote. We had an electorate that was overwhelmingly male, and overwhelmingly white. As late as 1988, close to 9 in 10 voters were white. Women couldn’t have their own checking accounts without permission, Black children went to segregated schools, most of our immigration was from Europe yet, Roe v. Wade and no fault divorce were abstract concepts at best, red lining was a thing, and hell, we were still fighting into the 1950’s about desegregating the military. Boy, what changed since the 1950’s, I wonder? The sexual revolution? The Civil Rights Movement? An increase of visas for educational and work purposes for people from non-European countries? The rise of global power nations that aren’t white, such as India, China, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia? Suddenly you lived in a world where women had their own bank accounts and could get a no-fault divorce, so they didn’t have to stay in bad (and often unreported abusive) marriages. Suddenly both parties could enjoy sex for non-child birthing reasons. Suddenly Black people had a vote and could raise their own issues and concerns. Suddenly gay people were just out as gay. Your doctor was less likely to be a White man, or even born in America. We have street signs, instructions, and messages in languages besides English. Hell, we’ve had a Black President now.
The world is dramatically different in most democratized, Western societies, whether we mean the United States, France, England, Italy, or wherever. You can be whatever you want to be in the West, and that’s not really what I think bothers most people bothered by that, it’s that you can be that wherever you want to be it. Yes, we’re going to send jobs to India and China, and then we’re going to take their children in for educational and work purposes, and they’re going to compete with your children. That’s unpleasant. Your son may not want to find a wife and have kids, but if he does, women might be more picky now and demand more from a guy they pick, so your son may not find one. Not only is the world changing, and rather rapidly, but there’s really no good way to be shielded from it. There are no carve outs for you to live in a past world where you didn’t have to interact with people, cultures, and behaviors that you frankly don’t like or want to interact with. If you want the old traditional Christian family structure it will cost you somewhere. Middle, Upper-Middle, and wealthy life styles today are just more expensive than they were for my grandparents. My grandparents bought their home in Pohatcong, NJ for $25,000 cash, some of which they borrowed from family members. When my grandmother died in 2023, I had more than $25,000 cash to myself, and didn’t even think of buying it. It’s on the market now again, and listed at over $400,000.
Politics in much of the Western world today has very little to do with class issues, and there’s no real way to put the genie back in the bottle here. For many people, social welfare and social safety net are just round about ways to say you’re going to give our money to people who aren’t from here, didn’t earn our national wealth, don’t speak our language, aren’t members of our churches, and aren’t a part of our culture. They don’t want the changes our society has undergone, and they have no way of avoiding them. So they’d rather burn it to the ground than help them. Some go so far as to say they are white nationalists, white supremacists, Neo-Nazis, and skinheads. Others say “fuck the poor, cut my taxes.” Running some supposed left-populist political candidates that are white, blue collar men across the nation is not going to meaningfully move any significant portion of these voters, and probably will alienate (at least) an equal number of voters who are currently voting left-of-center. It’s futile, it misses the point all together, and frankly it’s just embracing bad, outdated, poorly thought out policy goals that won’t work. These people are almost cartoon characters. Running away from the main divide in American (or any other pluralistic Western democracy for that matter), how people feel about a less traditional, more pluralistic, changing post-60’s society, is not going to work. They are not going to look away from the culture war issues that motivate them, anymore than a 35 year old single woman in graduate school today that doesn’t want to get married or have kids wants to hear how much you’re going to sell her out. Could it work for one election? Sure, I guess, anything can happen for a short period. It takes a longer term trend line to really change anything though.
I would be remiss if I didn’t scold my brand of liberals for exasperating these issues more than a little bit. We have folks who think the more female/non-white/LGBTQ/Atheist/immigrant you are, the more they want to elect you. This sort of adversarial push has forced a lot of voters who are not very comfortable with Nazis or Hamas to make a very stark choice, and Trump is the living proof that this forced choice doesn’t really work well for us. I mean, it’s worth noting that the only time this guy lost, it was to a 78 year old white man that was viewed as the “moderate” in the Democratic primaries. Even a lot of immigrants, the very group of people that Trumpism rails against the most, are really uncomfortable with what the face of the Democratic Party is to them, and an increasing number of immigrants and non-white people voted for Trump in each of his three elections. Saying “absolutely fuck all of your traditionalism” and pushing them to accept social minority policies and far left economics scares the living shit out of these people. That’s frankly to be expected.
People long for a world where they feel they can do well. That is still the defining question most voters ask, and that is not at all, let alone entirely, an economic question in our modern society. If reading all of this has made you feel dark and gloomy, don’t. There are examples of social progressive movements succeeding even in our modern American society, after the 1950’s. The Civil Rights Movement and the battle for Gay Marriage were won by progressives, even against long odds and an American society that is still overwhelmingly neither Black nor Gay. Both movements achieved success focusing on two things. First, optics. There was a reason that MLK Jr.’s marches were attended by people wearing their Sunday’s best, or that Rosa Parks was the woman that sparked the Montgomery Bus Boycott. The movement for Gay Marriage had won less than a decade after George W. Bush largely ran his 2004 campaign targeting gay marriage bans across the country, and that was because every day, very average to successful American LGBTQ people became the face of the movement. The second thing both movements did was focus on the discussion of rights. You’re not going to convince a White, straight majority that the alternative to them are better than them, but you can convince them that they should be treated as human beings that deserve decency and dignity. Putting forward leaders that are credible with the majority and making the case for simple fairness can give agency to many voters that are even a bit uncomfortable with social change to walk away from their side when they have gone too far.