So far this entire cycle has been basically focused on the U.S. House and who will gain control in the 2026 midterms. The House is clearly more in play than the Senate, as Democrats will need to win four Republican seats, and there’s just not really four seats in play. In 2026, Democrats have a real shot to win in North Carolina and Maine. After that it’s a lot of what if’s.

Q4 Fundraising numbers are out in most of the big races, giving us the latest look at who has a real shot and who is pretending. Here are some highlights:

• Roy Cooper raised $7 million in North Carolina. The former Governor is by far the Democrats strongest challenger this cycle and he has basically cleared his pathway to the general election. Lead Republican Michael Whatley raised $3.8 million. While that’s less than Cooper, Republicans rely much more heavily on their super PACs and leadership funds to fund general elections, so he won’t be outspent this badly.
• Nazi tattoo enthusiast Graham Platner may be DOA in a general election, but he did raise $4.6 million in Maine. Governor Janet Mills was left behind with $2.7 million, which in Maine terms is still way more than enough. Republican Senator Susan Collins raised $2.2 million in Q4. I don’t know how much money it would take to clean up Platner’s Nazi enthusiasm, racism, and homophobia, but I hope we don’t have to find out.
• In Ohio, Sherrod Brown’s last stand had a strong quarter. He raised $7.3 million for the race. Appointed Senator Jon Husted raised $1.5 million. If Brown can’t win this race in this year, I feel like Ohio is truly gone for a while.
• In Iowa, it’s a two horse race. Zach Wahls raised $741k and Josh Turek raised $677k. The third candidate, Nathan Sage, raised $229k. Republican front-runner Ashley Hinson raised $1.6 million for the race. Look, if Turek wins, I think this could be in play, as he has a rather amazing personal story that appeals to people outside of just the Democratic base. Wahls came to prominence in Iowa through his own rather interesting story, but I don’t think he has the same kind of crossover appeal that you have to have to win as a Democrat in Iowa.
• Anyone who has talked to me knows that I don’t think we’re winning Texas no matter who wins the primary. With that said, James Talarico hauled in an impressive $6.9 million last quarter. Despite entering in December, Jasmine Crockett raised $6.5 million. Again, I’m not bullish on this seat, but that’s pretty excellent numbers for a competitive primary. John Cornyn hauled in $7 million, and if he survives his primary I don’t think we have a prayer. Ken Paxton raised $1.1 million for his primary challenge and Wesley Hunt brought in $429k.
• I do not have anyone’s numbers in Florida.
• The most endangered Democratic seat may be the open New Hampshire seat where Chris Pappas brought in $2.3 million as the clear Democratic front-runner. Republican former Senator John Sununu raised $1.3 million and Scott Brown raised $374k. Sununu is going to be formidable, but Pappas is off to a good start.
• Michigan is another major possible problem for Democrats, especially if the wrong person wins the primary. Haley Stevens raised $2.1 million and Mallory McMorrow raised $1.7 million in relatively strong quarters for a primary like this. Both would be good nominees. Abdul El-Sayed was a strong candidate perhaps, before becoming the Bernie/Uncommitted hero, and he raised $1.7 million as well. Republican front-runner Mike Rogers raised $1.9 million.
• Minnesota is the third of the Democratic open seats, and Angie Craig leads the way with $2 million raised in Q4. Peggy Flanagan raised $1 million.
• Georgia is the hardest defense for Democrats, but Jon Ossoff raised a whopping $9.9 million in Q4. The top Republican was Buddy Carter at $1.7 million, followed by Dereck Dooley with $1.1 million, and Mike Collins with $825k.

For Democrats to win the Senate, too many things have to go right. They have to win three open seat holds, hold Georgia, win North Carolina and Maine, and then figure out two of four in Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and Florida, which is quite a reach. If Mills, Turek, and either Stevens or McMorrow win their primaries, I think there is a shot. That’s a lot of things that have to go well.