Ok, I’ll weigh in on what I expect tonight.

PA HOUSE 22 Democrats- I was pretty certain CeCe Gerlach was going to win this one most of the way. She’s got plenty of flaws, but she outworks her opponents and is versed on the issues she wants to address. Two problems with my theory. First, the majority of these voters probably weren’t her voters for Mayor, the only other time she’s been in a one on one race. So did she convert them? Two, she got outspent pretty decisively with outside money is my guess. So, do I think she wins tonight? Yes, I do, but much closer. Either way, I think she secures the nomination. I’m thinking under 55-45.

PA HOUSE 117 Republicans- Far right Republican Jamie Walsh of Luzerne County is defending against former United Way CEO Bill Jones in a race that has largely become about data centers, with Walsh opposing them mostly outright and Jones taking a middle ground position. I think Walsh hit the sweet spot with his very red district. He’s still far, far right, but opposes the thing the people are up in arms about. I bet he wins.

PA HOUSE 120 Democrats- Joanna Bryn Smith will beat out Fern Leard by a bit over 10%. House Leadership weighed in heavily here and it will make the difference. Say 57-43.

PA HOUSE 121 Democrats- The race to replace Eddie Day Pashinski in Wilkes-Barre was a little lower key than I expected. I think Council President Jessica McClay wins her race over Michael Stadulis. She is well known in Wilkes-Barre, and while turnout always sucks there, it’ll be the bulk of this primary electorate. I’m saying 60-40.

PA HOUSE 187 Democrats- I don’t know the first thing about Geoffrey Whitcomb or Rachel Cuevas. They could be the best candidates we have or the worst ones, and I’d know little to tell you either way. I doubt there was a ton of spending on this race, as neither probably raised much or got a lot of outside help. So, what I’ll guess is Cuevas wins, as Democratic voters tend to like voting for women when not given much else to work with. I’ll guess 60-40.

PA SENATE 16 Democrats- I don’t know what I hope for this race, but I think Mark Pinsley beats Bradley Merkl-Gump 56-44. Lehigh County will carry the lion’s share of the votes, and Mark will win them despite all the endorsements for Merkl-Gump. The blatant anti-semitism thrown into this race late in the game is absolutely insane and disappointing, but I have a feeling it won’t backfire on Pinsley, who both had no part in it and is actually Jewish. We live in unwell times.

PA SENATE 18 Democrats- I think Lisa Boscola will get about 95% or more of the vote tonight, with Taiba Sultana getting 89 votes. Yes, 89 votes, not 8.9%. The rest will be undervotes and people voting for Mickey Mouse and other fictional candidates. The fun in this race is whether Sultana gets more write-ins than a.) she needed signatures to make the ballot and b.) than there are write-ins for fictional characters like Harambe, Lisa Ann, Barack Obama, and ET.

PA SENATE 20 Republicans- Ok, here comes my first earthquake of the night. I think Lisa Baker will lose her seat after a couple decades tonight because “skill games” operators are funding Tyler Meyers, and he is hitting her on flashpoint issues in their primary. He left the Army for refusing to take the Covid vaccine, he claims she supports transgender people, and he’s pro-life. He also has attacked her on data centers, and I believe that is the secret sauce in red areas. Meyers will get 52-55% tonight.

PA SENATE 22 Democrats- Marty Flynn will get at least 65% of the vote tonight and defeat Jeffrey Lake. In fact, I’m calling it 70-30. He’s better known and frankly hasn’t done anything to disappoint his voters. This won’t be close.

1st CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT Democrats- Bob Harvie has all the endorsements and is an incumbent commissioner in Bucks County. Lucia Simonelli is a former Senate advisor on science issues running to his left. This will not be remotely competitive tonight. I’m saying 70-30.

3rd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT Democrats- I know that literally all of you are only coming here to read about two races, so I purposely made you read through all of those for my own amusement. Ok, so while a lot of ink has been spilled over the impact of national endorsements, whether the Governor put his thumb on the scale or not, or how much was spent, I’m going to tell you something- Philadelphia is the smallest major city in the world. Elections are decided block by block in a city of 1.6 million people, often times by conversations had from neighbor to neighbor. Yes, there is a ward system in Philadelphia, and yes the ward leaders in West and North Philadelphia are some of the strongest organizers in the country, but a lot of the work here is literally done after church around a table with neighbors talking coffee. Dr. Ala Stanford is super impressive and I think she got off to a fast start in this race. The late decision to pull out of appearances at the last minute didn’t go unnoticed though. Chris Rabb grabbed lots of major endorsements, including from people like AOC. I think this was a mistake by him. He could have ran to Sharif Street’s left and maybe found converts who agreed. I don’t think nationalizing the race was a smart strategy. As for Street, the State Senator is from maybe the best known political family in Philadelphia- Dad was Mayor, Uncle was State Senator. Sharif is quite different from his elders, but his name does carry positively in the 3rd District. In the end, I think all the noise and chatter from people who can’t find their way down Lancaster Avenue (which is really quite easy) helped Street. The folks “know” him in the district, and I think that carries the night.

7th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT Democrats- Ok, so the one you’ve all been waiting for. It’s been a long, strange journey. The DCCC, the Governor, Allentown’s electeds, and even Bernie Sanders have put their thumb on the scale here for Bob Brooks. Bob won the money race, especially the dark money race, by a lot. There are going to be a lot of hurt feelings about this race tomorrow, and I more than suspect that some people are going to feel some of them at me. Oh well, I knew what I was doing. Ryan Crosswell switched parties, moved into a district he had no ties in, and ran a race for Congress. He has serious liabilities as a Democrat, and yet I think he probably did better with folks who met him than most others expected. He won’t get my vote, but hats off to him for the effort I guess. I think he’ll finish third tonight, but a competitive third. Carol Obando-Derstine is a good Democrat with deep ties to this district, and the impressive endorsement of our former Congresswoman. I had a candidate picked, and they never lost my support, but Carol impressed me personally and is more than worthy of your vote today, if you did that. I think she’s going to finish fourth though. I’m voting for Lamont McClure. I think he was a very good County Executive in Northampton County and has the right political temperament to represent the Lehigh Valley in Congress. Regardless of who funded the late advertisements on his behalf (the truth, you’ll find to be stranger than the BS you’ve been told), very clearly McClure had the late momentum, and he was the original front-runner if for no other reason than name recognition. The question is, was that enough to pull him over the top? The feeling I get is yes. It feels like the undecided “normie” Democrats came home. However, I asked myself something over and over the last few days- what would people with a lot less information than you think and do? My belief is 30-35k ballots were cast before today in this race. The first candidate who was on TV here significantly (albeit mostly from dark money) was Bob Brooks. He told the voters their Governor and Bernie Sanders want him. My guess is that it won’t win him Northampton County, but he will pick up the overwhelming bulk of the votes that don’t go to McClure there and put him in second. If this race follows the pattern of 2018’s primary, Crosswell and Obando-Derstine will both do significantly better in Lehigh County than they do in Northampton County or overall, and might even be the top candidates over there (depending on how they actually do). So the question becomes, who do I think finished higher between Brooks and McClure in Lehigh County and Carbon County, first off, and second off, is that margin larger than McClure’s in Northampton? My thinking is that McClure’s spending came in the last two to three weeks, and Brooks was going for about six weeks. I think Brooks will over perform in the mail in all three counties, and end up with a slight edge. I’m saying Brooks between 30 and 33, McClure between 27 and 30, Crosswell between 20 and 25, and Carol at 15 to 20. What does that say about the race? Well, if I’m right, it means it took them everything they had to push this pile of waste across the line, but they did do it. It also means they may have failed with one less candidate because in fact Bernie and Shapiro don’t have the coattails they think. One thing I’d like to know after this- why the Brooks backers used Bernie in ads over Buttigieg? Pete is probably more universally liked, so that surprises me. I guess we’ll find out soon.

10th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT Democrats- Literally everyone backed Janelle Stelson. She’ll win 70-30 over Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas. We’ll find out how smart that was in just under six months.

Ok, if you got through all of that, good. I’d give you Democratic State Committee predictions if I thought that would make any sense, but it doesn’t. Oh well, I will anyway. Basically, my general idea here is that in Northampton County it’s better to have Bethlehem (city or township) after your name than not. So I’m betting the incumbent men win because they’re Bethlehem, and the women are unopposed. In Lehigh County I have no clue how you’d break this up. In general I think the incumbents will win. I’d say Allentown is a factor, but turnout is usually anemic. Make of that what you will.

Let’s see how wrong I am in the next few hours.